CHALLENGES FOR AFRICA IN AN AGE OF GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR TANZANIA
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1 CHALLENGES FOR AFRICA IN AN AGE OF GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR TANZANIA David Tschirley Presented at the 3 rd Annual Agricultural Policy Conference Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 1 March 2017
2 Africa s Agrifood System Transformation
3 Africa s Agrifood System Transformation Global Deindustrialization
4 Africa s Agrifood System Transformation African Employment? Global Deindustrialization
5 Africa s agrifood system transformation
6 Food is becoming more purchased
7 Food is becoming more purchased More perishable
8 Food is becoming more purchased More perishable More processed & prepared
9 Food is becoming more purchased More perishable More processed & prepared A Diet Transformation
10 which will (need to) drive other transformations Science applied to large farms and small farms
11 Agribusiness orientation at large scale and small scale
12 Reaching consumers through modern retail and improved traditional retail
13 all of which will be heavily influenced by public policy and investment Private Investment Public Policy Public Investment
14 IMPLICATIONS FOR Nutrition Energy and water use Employment Skill needs Public policy
15 0.80 Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to Share of all jobs Non-AFS Farming, own and wage labor Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation away from home
16 0.80 Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to Share of all jobs Non-AFS Farming, own and wage labor Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation away from home
17 0.80 Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to Share of all jobs Non-AFS Farming, own and wage labor Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation away from home
18 Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040 Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to Share of all jobs Share of all jobs Non-AFS Farming, own and wage labor Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation away from home 0.00 Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation away from home
19 Africa s Agrifood System Transformation African Employment? Global Deindustrialization
20 Global deindustrialization
21 HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST?
22 HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST? #1: Moving to cities
23 HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST? (2)
24 HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST? (2) #2: Making things (manufacturing)
25 WHAT THIS DID Facilitated rapid rises in labor productivity Provided stable, secure employment Facilitated delivery of social benefits
26 WHAT S HAPPENING TODAY?
27 WHAT S HAPPENING TODAY? ~ $12,000 pc, 22% share
28 WHAT S HAPPENING TODAY? ~ $12,000 pc, 22% share ~ $4,000 pc, 18% share
29 Factor of 1,000 every 15 years WHAT S DRIVING THIS?
30 WHAT S DRIVING THIS? Factor of 1,000 every 15 years Constantly improving precision
31 WHAT S DRIVING THIS? Factor of 1,000 every 15 years Constantly improving precision Everything we do is now data
32 WHAT S DRIVING THIS? Factor of 1,000 every 15 years Ever-smarter machines Constantly improving precision Everything we do is now data
33 WHAT S DRIVING THIS? And global trade spreads effects around the world Ever-smarter machines
34 WHAT S DRIVING THIS? And global trade spreads effects around the world
35 WHY DOES THIS MATTER? African labor coming off farm now going largely into selfemployed services Issues How to raise labor productivity? The technology elevator How to enhance the stability and security of employment? Formal services might also do this How to deliver social benefits
36 How to move ahead?
37 Global Market
38 Global Market Tanzania
39 Global Market Tanzania
40 Global Market Tanzania
41 Global Market Tanzania
42 Global Market Tanzania
43 Global Market A large and rapidly growing local and regional market
44 Global Market with similar economies
45 Global Market Tanzania
46 Global Market Tanzania
47 Global Market Tanzania
48 Global Market Tanzania
49 Global Market Tanzania
50 Global Market Tanzania
51 Global Market Tanzania
52 Global Market Tanzania and its neighbors need a radical commitment to regional trade if they hope to industrialize Tanzania
53 Global Market Their markets are too small otherwise Tanzania
54 Global Market Their markets are too small otherwise Competitiveness will be impossible Tanzania
55 Global Market Their markets are too small otherwise Competitiveness will be impossible Consumers will be harmed Tanzania
56 Global Market Their markets are too small otherwise Competitiveness will be impossible Consumers will be harmed Tanzania Growth will not be sustainable
57 Global Market Roads & rail One-stop borders Harmonized norms & standards Commitment to trade rules & processes Tanzania Others
58 Global Market These steps can drive some level of industrialization, employment generation, and income growth Tanzania
59 Global Market These steps can drive some level of industrialization, employment generation, and income growth in and out of Tanzania the agrifood system
60 Thank you!
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