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1 Clive Brown EBLEX

2 p per kg dw J F M Source: AHDB/EBLEX A M J J A S O N D

3 Average Weekly kill ( 000 head) /11-7% Source: Defra Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4 % change Steers Heifers Young bulls Overall Source: Defra

5 Average Weekly kill 000 head Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Defra

6 Jan Nov % y/y Source: GTIS

7 Jan Nov % y/y Source: GTIS

8 Estimated volume sales in GB (tonnes per 4 week period) 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15, Jan 23-Mar 18-May 13-Jul 07-Sep 02-Nov 28-Dec 22-Feb 19-Apr 14-Jun 09-Aug 04-Oct 29-Nov 24-Jan 21-Mar 16-May 11-Jul 05-Sep 31-Oct 26-Dec 22-Feb 17-Apr 12-Jun 07-Aug 02-Oct 27-Nov 22-Jan 18-Mar 13-May 08-Jul 02-Sep 28-Oct 23-Dec Source: Kantar Worldpanel

9 000 head 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 2,339 Dairy Cows 2012 Dairy -1% Beef - 2% 1,900 1,800 1,783 Beef Cows 1,800 1,700 1,642 1,600 1, (f) 2012(f) Source: Defra December Survey & Cattle Tracing System (from 2005)

10 Head 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000-1,000-3,000-5,000 Dairy Females -7,000 Dairy Males -9,000 Beef Females -11,000-13,000 Beef Males -15,000 Jan-09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-11 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-12 March May July Sept Source: BCMS

11 Under 30 months cattle population change on year July 2012 Head 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000-30,000-35,000 under ,180 +7,470 +4,867 Dairy female Beef female Dairy male Beef male

12 000 head Source: Defra & AHDB Market Intelligence forecasts

13 000 head Source: Defra

14 000 tonnes * * Introduction of over thirty month cattle

15 (f) 2013(f) 000 tonnes Production Imports (Fresh/frozen) (295) (291) (302) (315) (Processed) (103) (90) (91) (96) Exports Supplies available 1,168 1,142 1,138 1,148 Figures may not add to totals due to rounding *Trade figures now include processed meat

16 EU beef and veal production forecast -5% in 2012 First half of the year Italy -5% France -5% Ireland -12% UK -7% Forecast for % but Ireland +8%

17 EU male cattle prices per 100kg Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Germany (YB) France (YB) Italy (YB) Ireland (Steers) UK (Steers) Source: EU Commission

18 Clive Brown Senior Regional Manager

19

20 Sheepmeat Trade Flows Flows in '000 t cwe > 200 Red arrow: decrease forecast in n+1 Black arrow: no significant change Blue arrow: increase forecast in n+1

21

22

23 p per kg carcase J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: EBLEX/AHDB Market Intelligence Weeks

24 GB LW Finished Lamb Prices p per kg liveweight J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: EBLEX/AHDB Market Intelligence Weeks

25 Source: Yahoo!

26 UK Lamb Slaughterings Average weekly kill ( 000 head) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Defra 2012 YTD total = 10.9 million head -5% y-o-y

27 UK Ewe and Ram Slaughterings Average weekly ( 000 head) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Defra YTD Total = 1.69 million head down 9% y-o-y

28 UK Breeding flock trends million head Breeding flock Y-o-Y % change 2008* 13.8m -6.8% m n/c m n/c m +2.5% 2012 f 14.80m +4.2% 2013 f 15.10m +2.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Defra December Survey *Actual figures from 2008 onwards derived using sheep and goat survey

29 000 head Forecast lamb supply / Jan-Mar 2,659 2,582-3% 2,712 Apr-Jun 2,529 2,491-2% 2,664 Jul-Sep 3,579 3,239-9% 3,621 Oct-Dec 3,704 3,601-3% 3,692 Cal Year 12,462 11,911-4% 12,669

30

31 UK Frs/Frz Mutton + Lamb Exports Jan - Oct 000 tonnes product weight Exports in 2011 up 11%, in 2012 YTD down 7% Source: GTIS

32 000 tonnes product weight Sheep meat exports to Non-EU countries Jan-Oct Non-EU volume = 8,400 tonnes (sw) Up 89% on 2011 levels (up 228% on 2010) Account for 12% of all sheep meat exports Other markets include Switzerland, Afghanistan, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, The Philippines, Canada, UAE, Oman Source: GTIS

33 CHINA Increasing wealth, population, demand for protein Total meat consumption currently twice that of US Consumes >25% of global meat production 50% of worlds pigs are in China Consumes 52MT pork Supply tight resulting in price rises- pork up 25% y-o-y- headline news and protesting Appetite for beef, lamb and 5 th quarter material Leather- GB 11m sheepskins & 800,000 hides

34 Production Total exports Prices tonnes (cwe) p/kg lw Source: DEFRA/AHDB/HMRC 0

35 000 tonnes f 2012 f 2013 f Source: Defra/GTIS 2013 projected to be highest export level since 1999 CWE and Excluding processed sheep meat

36 000 tonnes product weight UK Frs/Frz Mutton + Lamb Imports Jan - Oct Imports in 2011 down 12%, in 2012 YTD - down 7% Source: GTIS

37 tonnes tonnes UK Fresh/Frozen Monthly Import Profile August recorded 1 st y-o-y rise of 2012 October volumes up 27% on the year J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: GTIS % 2012 ytd -7%

38 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, New Zealand Monthly Export Lamb Slaughter ('000 head) 2009/ / /12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Statistics New Zealand

39 000 tonnes carcase weight - Fresh/Frozen f 2013 f Source: Defra/GTIS CWE and Excluding processed sheep meat

40

41 UK Sheep Meat Usage Total UK production 14.0 million sheep = 277,000 tonnes 56 % of UK production Retailers Exports Foodservice

42 GB retail lamb sales - volume Estimated volume sales in GB (tonnes per 4 week period) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Jan 19-Apr 12-Jul 04-Oct 27-Dec 21-Mar 13-Jun 05-Sep 28-Nov 22-Feb 15-May 07-Aug 30-Oct 22-Jan 15-Apr 08-Jul 30-Sep Source: Kantar Worldpanel

43 Good news + Bad News Consumer attitudes to eating lamb Positives & negatives Is tasty Good source of iron Good source of protein Is easy to cook with Should be eaten in moderation Is versatile / good for a variety of dishes Is suitable for any day of the week Can be fatty Is good for you Good source of B vitamins Good source of zinc Good source of vitamin D Is not good for you Good source of Omega 3 fatty acids Beef (%) Lamb (%) Base: Total Sample (n=500)

44 GB retail lamb sales - volume Estimated volume sales in GB (moving annual total) Jan Aug Feb down 4.4% 2009 down 7.8% 2010 down 9.5% 2011 down 18.9 % 2012 ytd up 6.2% 09-Sep Mar Oct Apr Nov May Nov Jun Dec Jul weeks ending Source: Kantar Worldpanel

45 Retail price movements 2011 to March January 2011 = lamb beef pork poultr y

46 GB retail lamb sales - Value Estimated Value sales in GB (moving annual total) 760, , , , , ,000 So while volumes have fallen considerably, consumer spend on lamb has remained comparatively stable 160,000 60, Jan Aug Feb Sep Mar Oct Apr Oct May Nov-12 Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 weeks ending

47 Halal 2 million Muslims in UK 6 million non Muslim Halal UK consumers 25% of UK lamb consumption? Big opportunities in EU and beyond Strong player in cull ewe market

48 000 tonnes f 2013 f Source: MLC/AHDB Market Intelligence

49

50 Lamb Plan A. Lamb mince Build a market for lamb mince- meal solutions, fast food, foodservice, consumer education B. Forequarter cuts New ideas, new cuts educating the consumer (midweek meal options). C. Prime lamb cuts - Enhance the consumer market proposition for Lamb, better trimmed, better prepared QSM Lamb products, better consumer perception! Better value! 50

51 Internet and TV still key media to drive new recipe inspiration to wide audiences Source: Millward Brown Beef and lamb tracker

52

53 EU supplies in the next 12 months

54 (000 tonnes cwe) (e) % change 2013 (f) EU home production UK Spain N/A France Ireland Germany Source: European Commission/ AHDB Market Intelligence

55 000 head Tonnes 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Total sheep vs lamb production Total Sheep Lamb production 500, , , , , Source: Beef + lamb New Zealand, Statistics NZ

56 000 head Tonnes Total sheep vs lamb production Total Sheep Lamb production Source: M LA, ABS

57 Global Supplies in next 12 months slight rebuilding of flock, considerably better conditions and improved lambing rate all contribute to increased lamb numbers similar position to New Zealand results in increased numbers of lambs

58 Global sheepmeat production & consumption 000 tonnes Production Consumption Source: OECD-FAO

59 000 tonnes f 2013 f Production Imports Exports Supplies available Figures may not add to totals due to rounding *Trade figures now include processed meat

60

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