MAPPING MONSOON ON SUGARCANE PLANTING (SEASON )

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1 MAPPING MONSOON ON SUGARCANE PLANTING (SEASON ) Sugarcane planting for the sugar season of , is almost completed across the country. Interestingly the total sugarcane acreage in season is the mirror image of the rainfall pattern that the country witnessed during the monsoon (June-Sep, 2013), post monsoon (Oct- Dec, 2013) along with winter rains (Jan-Feb, 2014), when actually the majority of the planting took place. In 2013, the actual rainfall during the monsoon season (June- Sep, 2013) was 937 mm, which was about 6% higher than the normal monsoon rainfall i.e. 887mm (long period average/lpa). During June-Sep, the Adsali (18 months) crop in Tropical and Spring crop in Sub-Tropical had been planted for the season , and its acreage directly followed the progression of rainfall during this period. From Oct-Dec, 2013, during the post monsoon season of 2013, total actual rainfall was 150mm, which was 18% higher than normal average rainfall i.e. 127 mm. During this time of the year, pre-seasonal crop (14-15 months) had been planted in North West Karnataka and Maharashtra region which also followed the higher acreage pattern than normal seasonal planting. In 2014, winter rainfall (Jan- Feb, 2014) was 46.2 mm, which was 13% higher than the normal rainfall, i.e. 40.9mm (LPA). In this period, major sugarcane planting across the Sub-tropical region (Uttar Pradesh/ Punjab/ Haryana/ Bihar), Maharashtra (Suru season), Karnataka (seasonal planting), Tamil Nadu (Eksali) etc, had commenced. This pattern of rainfall progression during monsoon and post monsoon seasons of 2013, farmers got confidence of planting more sugarcane under these seasonal plantings across States. In the monsoon season of 2014, cumulative rainfall in the country as a whole during the period of 1st June to 25th June, 2014, is 40% lower than long period average (LPA). Rainfall (% departure from LPA) in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period was lower by 48% in North West India, 57% in Central India, 28% in South Peninsula and 29% in East & North East India. Out of a total of 36 Met sub-divisions, 7 Met sub-divisions constituting 14% of the total area of the country have received excess / normal rainfall, 29 Met sub-divisions constituting 86% of the total area of the country have received deficient/scanty rainfall.

2 To understand the impact of monsoon rainfall on the sugarcane crop s health and its acreage, we must study the rainfall progression in monsoon/ pre-monsoon /winter season and compare it with 2012 s monsoon rainfall pattern, so as to arrive at the overall sugarcane acreage/ production for season in comparison to sugar season 1. Maharashtra Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 in order to examine sugarcane crop acreage- 1.1 Comparison on monsoon rainfall (June Sept) 2013 vs 2012 During this period, major Adsali seasonal plantation had been done in Maharashtra. Clear cut monsoon progression of 2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for Adsali plantation for crop season and we are estimating about 25% area under total new plantation in Adsali, which is higher than the last year Adsali acreage.

3 1.2 Comparison on post monsoon rainfall (Oct Dec) 2013 vs 2012 During this period major, pre-seasonal plantation had been done. Clear cut monsoon progression of 2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for pre-seasonal plantation for crop season and it is estimated that it is about 50-55% of the total new plantation of Moreover adsali & pre-seasonal crops are about 10% - 12% more than last year crop acreage. 1.3 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan Feb) 2014 vs 2013 During this period, major SURU plantation was already done. Clear cut monsoon progression of 2014 over 2013 indicates that, it was favorable for SURU plantation for crop season. Moreover, continuous good rain progression also helped in overall growth of Adsali and preseasonal crop in the field, which will directly give more yield for crushing season.

4 1.4 Comparison on pre-monsoon rainfall (Mar May) 2014 vs 2013 During this period, rains actually impacted the overall growth of the new plantation and ratoon crop for crop season. We are expecting the yield to go up by 6-7% higher than last year of season, as far as new plantation is concerned. 2. Karnataka Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 to examine sugarcane crop 2.1 Comparison on monsoon rainfall (June Sept) 2013 vs 2012 During this period, major Adsali plantation had been done. Clear cut monsoon progression of 2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for Adsali plantation of , but Adsali in the State only confines majorly to Belgum district of North West Karnataka.

5 2.2 Comparison on post monsoon rainfall (Oct Dec) 2013 vs 2012 During this period, post monsoon rains were not as good in 2013 as compared to Preseasonal / Seasonal plantation is the major plantation season where almost 70% plantation happens, but reservoir level and Krishan river water helps on overall good acreage for season. 2.3 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan Feb) 2014 vs 2013 In Karnataka, winter rains were not good, as compared to 2013, which might impact the overall yield in coming months, if such a situation prevails longer during monsoon rainfall too (July- Sept).

6 3. Tamil Nadu Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 to examine sugarcane crop 3.1 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan Feb) 2014 vs 2013 Majority of plantation happens in Jan Mar, 2014, which is actually hampered due to poor rains. 3.2 Retrieving monsoon in Tamil Nadu was bad in 2013, which actually impacted the ratoon & new plantation for

7 However, all the above factors & incidences of rainfall pattern, across the season is one of the major fundamental factors in deciding the overall acreage, but apart from it there are other nonfundamental aspects which also impact crop acreage. Ongoing rainfall pattern of monsoon in 2014 is a must for the overall growth of sugarcane, which has been planted till date for the crushing season of Factors like crop yield and recovery are prime factors, which might get altered, if any deviation happens in July-Sep,2014 rainfall progression. ISMA has already released its preliminary estimates of sugar production for the season , based on sugarcane acreage (derived from satellite mapping), which has been further substantiated with other anticipated fundamental factors like yield/ recovery (looking into current crop situation) along with non-fundamental factors liked drawl etc to arrive at sugar production of about 253 lakh tons for the season , which is about 4% higher than the last year. This is only ISMA preliminary estimates which will be revised in the month of August-September, by that time clearer picture on monsoon rainfall and its impact on the yield will be there, to firm up ISMA projections.

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