Sensitivity of the US Agriculture and Forest Sectors to Climate Change Policies and Adaptation
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1 28th USAEE/IAEE North America Conferences Sensitivity of the US Agriculture and Forest Sectors to Climate Change Policies and Adaptation En Zhu Argonne National Laboratory Bruce A. McCarl Texas A&M University 12/9/2008 1
2 28th USAEE/IAEE North America Conferences Climate Change Mitigation A worldwide issue of concern Globally coordinated action UNFCCC : UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Created in 1992 and ratified by 176 governments. Objective of stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. Under it s support, the KYOTO Protocol was formed. 12/9/2008 2
3 GHG Sources-Why Us? U.S. -- one fourth of the world s total emissions. Energy-related activities 85% of total emissions on a carbon equivalent basis in Carbon Emission Sources in US 22% 6% 8% 28% 36% Power Plant Transportation Industry Agriculture Residential Source: EPA - U.S. GHGE Inventory /9/2008 3
4 Why Agriculture and Forestry? Options for net GHGE reduction Energy use reduction Energy production fuel source switching Agriculture and forestry (AF) McCarl and Schneider 1999: low-cost Other emission reduction is expensive: requires a large cut in energy use, or new technologies. AF Mitigation strategies are competitive Watson 2000: cost-effective, co-benefits soil productivity could be improved through increased capacity to retain water and nutrients long-lived valuable products (wood) are produced marginal lands could be improved and riparian ecosystems restored Erosion reduction 12/9/2008 4
5 Emission Reduction Options in Ag and Forestry Four fundamental ways: 1. Change land use e.g., afforestation, grassland conversion 2. Alter management practices e.g., soil tillage practices, extend timber rotations 3. Alter production levels and activity mix e.g. Less animals or a different mix of grass fed / feedlot 4. Substitute for GHG-intensive products e.g., biofuels for fossil fuels A comprehensive assessment should try to capture these elements 12/9/2008 5
6 A Modeling Approach: FASOMGHG Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with GHG effects (CO2, CH4, N2O) Examines land-based GHG strategies Considers saturation characteristics of both soils and forests (uses 30 years for ag soils, FORCARB model for forest soils and growth/yield characteristics of forests from USDA Forest Service) 100 year model, decadal time-step Land exchanges in response to GHG prices, plus all the agricultural activities by decade 12/9/2008 6
7 Basic Modeling --FASOMGHG 12/9/2008 7
8 Spatial Resolution of FASOMGHG 12/9/2008 8
9 International Trade in FASOMGHG Foreign regions included in FASOMGHG FASOM has supply and demand curves for corn, 4 types of wheat, soybeans, rice and sorghum across the above regions and within 11 major US regions where the region trades the commodity. FASOM also maintains transportation costs between all regions. The model determines exports to the point where prices are in equilibrium considering transport across all markets. 12/9/2008 9
10 FASOMGHG Mitigation Options Strategy Basic Nature CO2 CH4 N2O Crop Mix Alteration Emis, Seq X X Crop Fertilization Alteration Emis, Seq X X Crop Input Alteration Emission X X Crop Tillage Alteration Emission X X Grassland Conversion Sequestration X Irrigated /Dry land Mix Emission X X Ferment Ethanol Production Offset X X X Cellulosic Ethanol Production Offset X X X Biodiesel Production Offset X X X Bioelectric Production Offset X X X Stocker/Feedlot mix Emission X Enteric fermentation Emission X Livestock Herd Size Emission X X Livestock System Change Emission X X Manure Management Emission X X Rice Acreage Emission X X X Afforestation Sequestration X Existing timberland Manage Sequestration X Deforestation Emission X Forest Product Choice 12/9/2008 Sequestration X 10
11 Dynamic Role of Sinks Strategies Cumulative Contribution at a $10 Price MMT MMT Non-CO2 Sources Agricultural Soil 7500 Forest Carbon Time Cumulative Contribution at a $25 Price Non-CO2 Sources Biofuel Offset 7500 Agricultural Soil Forest Carbon Cumulative Contribution at a $50 Price MMT MMT Non-CO2 Sources Biofuel Offset Agricultural Soil Forest Carbon Time Cumulative Contribution at a $100 Price Non-CO2 Sources Biofuel Offset Agricultural Soil Forest Carbon Time Source: Lee, Heng-Chi, An Economic Investigation of the Dynamic Role for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation by 12/9/ the U.S. Agricultural and Forest Sectors, PhD Dissertation, Texas A&M University,December Time
12 Dynamic Role of Strategies (II) Time from Now 0 to 30 years >30 years Limited forest and afforest Non co2 Ag soils Limited forest and afforest Non co2 Bio fuels Non co2 Limited Ag soils Forest and afforest Biofuels Non co2 <$50/metric ton >$50/metric ton Level of Price 12/9/
13 Results Mitigation and Market Effects Fisher index GHG Mitigation and Ag-Markets Crop prices Livestock prices Livestock production Crop production Crop exports Carbon price ($/tce) Tradeoff between carbon and traditional production ag prices rise, forest products fall 12/9/
14 Results: Co-Benefits, Economic & Envir. 150 Ag-Sector Welfare 100 Multi-environmental Impacts Welfare changes (bill $) U.S. Producers (Net) Foreign Countries Dead Weight Loss U.S. Consumers Carbon price ($/tce) Pollution (%/acre) Nitrogen Subsurface Flow Phosphorus loss through sediment Soil erosion Carbon price ($/tce) Nitrogen Percolation Producers gain & Consumers lose Exports reduced 12/9/ Environmental gains Some co-benefits do not saturate over time but continue to be accrued (erosion, runoff, farm income).
15 Commodity FASOMGHG with Bioenergy Offset Rates Computed Through Lifecycle Analysis Net Carbon Emission Reduction (%) Crop Ethanol Cellulosic Ethanol Energy Form Biodiesel Electricity Co-Fire 5% Electricity fire100 Corn 31 Sorghum 39 Sugarcane 65 Corn Residue Wheat Residue SwitchGrass Energy Sorghum Sweet Sorghum 61 Sweet Sorghum Ratoon 63 Soybean Oil 71 Corn Oil 55 Bagasse Lignin Crop ethanol<cellulosic<biodiesel<electricity Opportunities have different potentials Ethanol offsets are in comparison to gasoline Power plants offsets are in comparison to coal. 12/9/
16 Questions and discussions 12/9/
17 Reference Aber J., R.P. Neilson, S. McNulty, J. M. Lenihan, D. Bachelet, and R.J. Drapek Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change: Predicting the Effects of Individual and Multiple Stressors. BioScience 51: Adams DM, RJ Alig, BA McCarl et al FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, ( Adams, R., B.A. McCarl, D. Dudek, and J. Glyer: 1988, 'Implications of Global Climate Change for Western Agriculture', Western J. Agric. Econ. 12(2), Adams, R., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R., Ritchie, J., McCar., R., Glyer, J., Curry, R., Jones, J., Boote, K., and Allen, Jr., L.: 1990 'Global Climate Change and US Agriculture', Nature 345(17), Adkins, L., and R. Garbaccio. A Bibliography of CGE Models Applied to Environmental Issues. Working Paper, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., Alig, R.J., D.M. Adams, and B.A. McCarl. Impacts of Incorporating Land Exchanges Between Forestry and Agriculture in Sector Models. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 30, 2(December 1998): Alig, R. J., D.M. Adams, and B.A. McCarl. Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the US Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets. Report under national climate change assessment, Alig, R.J., D.M. Adams and B.A. McCarl, "Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the US Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets", Forest Ecology and Management, (Special Issue), Alig, R.J., D.M. Adams, B.A. McCarl, J.M. Callaway, and S.M. Winnett. Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the US Forest and Agriculture Sectors. Environmental and Resource Economics, 9: , Antle, J.M., S. Capalbo, S. Mooney, T.E. Elliott and K. Paustian Spatial Heterogeneity, Contract Design, and the Efficiency of Carbon Sequestration Policies for Agriculture October /9/
18 Reference Antle, J.M. and B.A. McCarl The Economics of Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils The International yearbook of environmental and resource economics 2002/2003 pp Antle, J.M. and S. Mooney, Designing Efficient Policies for Agricultural Soil Carbon Sequestration, in Agriculture Practices and Policies for Carbon Sequestration in Soil (J. Kimble, Ed.), pp , CRC Press LLC, Boca Raton, FL Arthur, L.: 1988, 'The Greenhouse Effect and the Canadian Prairies', in Johnston, G., Freshwater, D., and Favero, P., (eds.), Natural Resource and Environmental Policy Issues, Westview Press, Inc., Boulder. Babcock, B.A., P.G. Lakshminarayan, J.J. Wu, and D. Zilberman, The Economics of A Public Fund for Environmental Amenities: A study of CRP contracts American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78, Babiker, Mustafa H Subglobal Climate-Change Actions and Carbon Leakage: The Implications of International Capital Flows. Energy Economics 23: Bairam, E. 1991, Elasticity of Substitution, Technical Progress and Returns to Scale in Branches of Soviet Industry: A New CES Production Function Approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 6, Barker, Terry Achieving a 10 percent Cut in Europe s Carbon Dioxide Emissions using Additional Excise Duties: Coordinated, Uncoordinated and Unilateral Action using the Econometric Model E3ME. Economic Systems Research 11(4): Bernstein, P. M., W. D. Montgomery, T. F. Rutherford. Global Impacts of the Kyoto Agreement: Results from the MS-MRT Model. Resource and Energy Economics 21 (1999) Binkley, C., M. Apps, and L. Nilsson. Sequestering Carbon in Natural Forests. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 27(1997): Binkley, C., D. Brand, Z Harkin, G. Bull, N. Ravindranath, M. Obersteins, S. Nilsson, Y. Yamagata, and M. Krott. Carbon Sink by the Forest Sector: Options and Needs for Implementation. Forest Policy and Economics 4, no. 1(2002): And Lot more.. 12/9/
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