Tennessee Market Highlights

Transcription

1 Tennessee Market Highlights August 25, 2017 Number: 34 Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago Slaughter Cows $1 to $3 lower Slaughter Bulls $4 lower Feeder Steers Unevenly steady Feeder Heifers Steady to $1 lower Feeder Cattle Index Wednesday s index: Fed Cattle The 5-area live price of $ is down $2.94. The dressed price is down $5.52 at $ Corn September closed at $3.38 a bushel, down 14 cents since last Friday. Soybeans September closed at $9.39 a bushel, up 2 cents since last Friday. Wheat September closed at $4.09 a bushel, down 7 cents since last Friday. Cotton December closed at cents per lb, up 0.87 cents since last Friday. Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith FED CATTLE: Fed cattle traded $3 lower compared to last week on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were primarily $106 to $107 while prices on a dressed basis were mainly $168 to $170. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $ live, down $2.94 from last week and $ dressed, down $5.53 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $ live and $ dressed. Finished cattle prices have declined more than 26 percent since their apex of $ in May which has resulted in fed cattle revenues declining about $500 per head over the same time period. Comparing this to 2016, fed cattle prices peaked just above $139 in the middle of March and declined nearly 18 percent by the last week of August. However, 2016 prices continued to decline into the middle of October resulting in a 30 percent decline from the apex in March to the bottom in October. For prices to reach a 30 percent decline in 2017, fed cattle would have to trade below $102 which is in the realm of possibility. The continued price decline has started to place pressure on feedlots from a profitability standpoint which will show up in the feeder cattle market. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $ down $0.23 from Thursday and down $3.54 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $ up $0.79 from Thursday and down $3.05 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $2.07 compared to $2.56 a week ago. Beef prices continued their decline this week which is echoed by the sentiment in the monthly Foods Demand Survey conducted by agricultural economists at Oklahoma State University. Consumer willingness to pay for steak and hamburger declined 6.4 and 4.3 percent, respectively, from July to August. What may be more worrisome is that willingness to pay for steak and hamburger has declined 18.3 and 11.0 percent respectively over the past year. While beef items struggled moving from July to August, the survey found consumers increased their willingness to pay for chicken breast, chicken wing, and pork chop in the last month. However, all meat items evaluated in the August 2017 survey show a decline in willingness to pay ranging from 6 percent to 30 percent when compared to August The reduced willingness to pay for beef items does not bode well for the last grilling holiday of summer. There has been little sign of support from Labor Day beef purchases. Maybe restocking the meat counter after the holiday will provide a boost. OUTLOOK: The slaughter cow market was very strong through the spring and early summer months. The longevity of the strong market provided producers a longer period to market cows than has been typical in previous years. However, late summer is proving to be less supportive of the slaughter cow market, and the fall months will likely result in even larger price declines. The slaughter cow market price tends to wane during the fall and this is largely due to the increased supply of cows for slaughter as many cow-calf producers market cows at time of calf weaning in October or November. One consideration for producers this time of year is to early wean calves and market cows before they lose too much body condition and before slaughter cow prices hit rock bottom. Some similar thoughts can be geared toward the calf crop that many producers will be weaning in the next few months. Lightweight calf prices will seasonally be on the decline through November as many of those calves will be headed to grass either locally or in the Southern Plains. Weaning the spring calf crop early can allow a producer to capitalize on higher prices, but it will also result in marketing a lighter calf. Thus, producers with spring calving herds should be consid- (Continued on page 2)

2 Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith (Continued from page 1) ering several options. The first is sticking to the status quo of selling calves straight off the cow in October or November. The second alternative is to early wean and market calves at lighter weights. A third option is to early wean calves and then put them through a preconditioning and backgrounding phase to guard against marketing cattle during seasonally low prices. A fourth option would be to wean calves at the normal time and then precondition and background calves until prices rebound from the seasonal valley. There are more alternatives, but the correct decision depends on the resources a producer has available. Now is the time to put pencil to paper to determine the best route. The August cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of August 1, 2017 totaled million head, up 4.3% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting an increase of 4.9%. July placements in feedlots totaled 1.62 million head, up 2.7% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements up 6.2%. July marketing s totaled 1.78 million head up 4.1% from 2016 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings up 4.5%. Placements on feed by weight: under 800 pounds up 3.5%, 800 to 999 pounds up 3.7%, and 1,000 pounds and over down 11.8%. tioning wisdom. Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN FRIDAY S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle October $ ; December $ ; February $ ; Feeder cattle September $ ; October $ ; November $ ; January $ ; September corn closed at $3.39 down $0.03 from Thursday. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: One good thing about surrounding oneself with people is there is always someone to bounce ideas off. The key to this strategy is not only surrounding oneself with good people, but knowing which of those people can provide good insight on the subject and project at hand. It is not uncommon for me to utilize University of Tennessee Extension personnel. In the past year, I have utilized state specialists such as Gary Bates, Justin Rhinehart, Neil Rhodes, and most recently Wesley Wright. Not only have I utilized people in Knoxville, but I also take advantage of the knowledge, experience, and expertise of several county Extension personnel. University of Tennessee Extension employees have been extremely valuable to me. However, I also recognize the value one can gain by inquiring of fellow producers, because several producers have shared valuable information with me along my path. The final thought is to ask questions, listen to wisdom, and know that there is nothing wrong with ques- Milk Futures Thursday August 24, 2017 Month Class III Close Class IV Close Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Daily Slaughter Cattle Hogs Number of head This week (4 days) 117, ,750 Last week (4 days) 116, ,250 Year ago (4 days) 113, ,750 This week as percentage of Week ago (%) 100% 99% Year ago (%) 104% 102% USDA Box Beef Cutout Value Choice 1-3 Select lbs lbs $/cwt - Thursday Last Week Year ago Change from week ago Change from year ago

3 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Overview Corn and wheat were down; cotton and soybeans were up for the week. Domestic corn production/yield will drive prices for the next couple of months. Currently, the USDA projects U.S. corn production at billion bushels, down 995 million bushels from last year. Harvested acres are projected at 83.5 million acres, down 3.2 million acres compared to last year and yield is projected at bu/acre, down 5.1 bu/acre compared to last year. At this time of year, acreage estimates are generally agreed upon, however, national and state average yields are often hotly debated. Corn use for the upcoming marketing year (September 1, 2017 to August 1, 2018) is estimated at 14.3 billion bushels and ending stocks at billion bushels. This provides an estimated U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 15.9% (2.273 million bushels / 14.3 million bushels). Using a simple linear trend line, a 15.9% stocks-to-use ratio translates into a national marketing year average price of about $3.68/bu. A 1% decrease (increase) in the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio would translate into about a 29 cent per bushel increase (decrease) in the national marketing year average price. For example, a bu/acre national average yield (down 2 bu/acre from the current estimate) would potentially (assuming demand remained unchanged) reduce stocks by 167 million bushels (83.5 million acres x 2 bu/acre). This would result in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.7% (2.106 million bushels / 14.3 million bushels) and translate into a national marketing year average price of about $4.03/bu. This simple example uses the current USDA acreage estimate which may be revised. Additionally, corn demand is held constant at 14.3 billion bushels, which would need to be modified for higher anticipated prices (simple economics tells us that as prices increase demand decreases). However, this example does highlight the importance of average national yield to marketing year and farm level price. Corn September 2017 corn futures closed at $3.38 down 14 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2017 corn futures traded between $3.38 and $3.51. Across Tennessee, average basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Upper-middle, Northwest, and Lower-Middle Tennessee and weakened at Memphis and Northwest Barge Points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 15 over the September futures contract with an average of 4 under the September futures contract at the end of the week. Corn net sales reported by exporters from August were within expectations with net sales of 4.0 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year and 16.7 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were up from last week at 28.5 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 100% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2016/17 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 105%. Ethanol production for the week ending August 18 was million barrels per day down 7,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were million barrels, down 319,000 barrels. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 15 and 28 cents, respectively. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn dough or beyond at 76% compared to 61% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; corn dented at 29% compared to 16% last week, 37% last year, and a 5-year average of 35%; and corn condition at 62% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 86% good-toexcellent and 2% poor-to-very poor; corn dough or beyond at 96% compared to 90% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; corn dented at 72% compared to 52% last week, 79% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%; and corn mature at 20% compared to 14% last year and a 5-year average of 17%. In Tennessee, September 2017 cash forward contracts averaged $3.37 with a range of (Continued on page 4) 3

4 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith $3.27 to $3.59. December 2017 corn futures closed at $3.53 down 12 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $3.60 December 2017 Put Option costing 16 cents establishing a $3.44 futures floor. March 2018 corn futures closed at $3.66 down 11 cents since last Friday. Soybeans September 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.39 up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2017 soybean futures traded between $9.27 and $9.43. Average soybean basis strengthened at North West Barge Points, Lower-middle, Upper-middle, and Northwest Tennessee and weakened at Memphis. Basis ranged from 37 under to 27 over the September futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 2 under the September futures contract. Net sales reported by exporters were above expectations with net sales of 14.7 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year and 73.8 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 25.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 104% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2016/17 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5- year average of 103%. September soybean-to-corn futures price ratio was 2.78 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 5 cents and 14 cents, respectively. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans blooming at 97% compared to 94% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; soybeans setting pods at 87% compared to 79% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%; and soybean condition at 60% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 80% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 94% compared to 92% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; and soybeans setting pods at 84% compared to 79% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%. In Tennessee, October/November 2017 soybean cash contracts average $9.32 with a range of $8.96 to $9.61. November/December 2017 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.67 at the end of the week. November 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.44 up 7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.50 November 2017 Put Option which would cost 26 cents and set a $9.24 futures floor. January 2018 soybean futures closed at $9.53 up 8 cents since last Friday. Cotton Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 24 were cents/lb ( ) and cents/lb ( ). Adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 0.05 cents to cents per pound. Net sales reported by exporters were up from last week with net sales 277,600 bales for the 2017/18 marketing year and 51,900 for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 221,800 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 51% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year 4 (Continued on page 5)

5 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 35%. October 2017 cotton futures closed at up 0.82 cents since last Friday. Oct/Dec and Dec/Mar cotton futures spreads were cents and cents, respectively. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton setting bolls at 88% compared to 80% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average 88%; cotton bolls opening at 12% compared to 10% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 14%; and cotton condition at 63% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 94% good-to-excellent and 2% poor-to-very poor; cotton setting bolls at 97% compared to 91% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and cotton bolls opening at 7% compared to 4% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 8%. December 2017 cotton futures closed at cents up 0.87 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2017 cotton futures traded between and 70 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2017 Put Option costing 3.07 cents establishing a cent futures floor. March 2018 cotton futures closed at up 0.87 cents since last Friday. Wheat In Tennessee this week, cash wheat ranged from $3.62 to $4.16. Wheat net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 14.2 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the week were down from last week at 18.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 44% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 46%. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 26 cents and 76 cents, respectively. September 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.09 down 7 cents since last Friday. September 2017 wheat futures traded between $4.00 and $4.18 this week. September wheat-to-corn price ratio was Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat harvested at 58% compared to 40% last week, 63% last year, and a 5-year average of 51%; and spring wheat condition at 34% good-toexcellent and 42% poor-to-very poor. December 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.35 down 7 cents from last Friday. In Memphis, July 2018 cash forward contracts ranged from $4.86 to $4.93 for the week. July 2018 wheat futures closed at $4.85 down 8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.90 July 2018 Put Option costing 35 cents establishing a $4.55 futures floor. Additional Information: Links for data presented: U.S. Export Sales - USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production - EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates - Upland Cotton Reports - Tennessee Crop Progress - U.S. Crop Progress - USDA AMS: Market News - If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu. 5

6 Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock Friday, August 18, 2017 Thursday, August 24, 2017 Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Soybeans Sep ($/bushel) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Corn Sep ($/bushel) Dec Mar May Jul Sep Wheat Sep ($/bushel) Dec Mar May Jul Soybean Meal Sep ($/ton) Oct Dec Jan Mar May Cotton Oct ( /lb) Dec Mar May Jul Live Cattle Aug ($/cwt) Oct Dec Feb Apr Feeder Cattle Aug ($/cwt) Sep Oct Nov Jan Mar Market Hogs Oct ($/cwt) Dec Feb Apr May

7 Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2 This Week Last Week Year Ago Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average $/cwt lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Holstein Steers lbs lbs lbs Slaughter Cows & Bulls Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending August 25, 2017 Breakers 75-80% Boners 80-85% Lean 85-90% Bulls YG Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Cattle Receipts: This week: 6,564 (11) Week ago: 8,801 (10) Year ago: 7,038 (10) 7

8 Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2016, 2017 and 5-year average Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2016, 2017 and 5-year average /2015 Avg /2015 Avg Area Finished Cattle Prices 2015, 2016 and 5-year average Tennessee Slaughter Cow Prices Breakers 75-80% 2015, 2016 and 5-year average 2011/2015 Avg / Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators Friday, August 18, 2017 Thursday, August 24, 2017 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High $/bushel No. 2 Yellow Soybeans Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Yellow Corn Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Wheat Memphis

9 Video Sales East Tennessee Livestock Center - August 23, load out of 76 heifers; BQA certified producer; est. wt 750 lbs; 95% L&M-1 s, 5% L&M-2 s; medium flesh; 100% Black/ BWF; $ Athens Stockyard - August 23, load of heifers; avg. wt. 623 lbs.; blk/bwf; $ load of heifers; avg. wt. 620 lbs.; mixed; $ Hardin County Stockyard - August 23, loads of 125 steers; avg. wt. 850 lbs.; $ Blue Grass Stockyards - August 24, load of 60 blk/bwf steers; avg. wt. 825 lbs.; $ Video Board Sale and Graded Sales 8/23/17 Warren County Livestock Receipts: 1,541 (Prices for Blk, BWF, CharX) Steers: Med & Lg 1 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs and over Steers: Med & Lg 2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Self-Reported and Self-Graded Livestock Markets 8/22/17 Somerville Livestock Sales Receipts: 152 Steers/Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Value Added Steers/Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs /22/17 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 547 (226 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs

10 Beef Industry News Featured Article from BEEF Magazine Preg-test your cows early & earn more By Wes Ishmael July 31, 2017 Early pregnancy testing is a tool we can use to sort and market cattle to their highest and best value, says Aaron Berger, Extension educator in beef systems at the University of Nebraska s (UNL) Panhandle Research and Extension Center It also allows us to use the information to strategically manage cows in terms of when we give them inputs. Some of the risk management potential Berger alludes to is obvious, like pouring groceries into a non-paying cow longer than necessary especially when it s costlier harvested feed. Related: Consider Pregnancy Checking Cattle Early Then there s the opportunity to market culls before prices decline seasonally or late-breds that fit someone else s season, or to shift open heifers to their stocker and feedlot potential. Selling non-pregnant cows in August, when they weigh more and prices are seasonally higher, provides the opportunity for producers to capture more value from these cows than leaving the calves on the cows and waiting to pregnancy-test at weaning, Berger explains in the Early Pregnancy Diagnosis webinar at UNL s beef site. Non-pregnant heifers and cows as well as cull bred cows can provide as much as 20% of the gross income to a cow-calf operation on an annual basis. Related: The Economic Value Of A Preg-Checked Heifer Keep in mind, preg-checking continues to be unused by a mass majority of cow-calf producers. According to the most recent surveys from the National Animal Health Monitoring Service (NAHMS), only around 20% of producers exploit the technology. Admittedly, those surveys are closing in on their 11th birthday before the advent of blood tests and the prevalence of ultrasound but still. Berger points out there are advantages and disadvantages to each of the most prevalent methods of diagnosing cow pregnancy: rectal palpation, ultrasound and blood tests. For him, choosing the method or combination of methods boils down to the available resources and economics. Do you have access to a good veterinarian who is accurate with palpation, or access to someone with ultrasound experience, and you want to use that information in a management scheme that will return dollars to you? he asks. It comes down to economics, and which method is going to provide you with the greatest return for the dollar invested. Sandy Johnson, an Extension beef specialist with Kansas State University (KSU), provided recent insight to the management power borne through early pregnancy testing. These were replacement heifers bred via fixed-time artificial insemination. Natural-service sires were turned out 10 days after AI and removed 20 days later. Ultrasound was used for pregnancy diagnosis. Having a known breeding date makes predicting a service sire or calving date much easier, and a forced gap between AI and cleanup natural service even more so, Johnson explains in a recent KSU Beef Tips newsletter. We can get a preview of the next calving distribution if pregnancy diagnosis is done early enough to stage pregnancies. This data can inform management choices as cows continue through gestation. For example, if there are a large number of late calvers, lategestation or early-calving rations might be altered, or these cows might be targeted for marketing in a bred cow sale. If young cows are late-bred, specific steps could be taken with their younger counterparts that might avoid the same problem. When drought or other issues impact pasture availability, this information can be used if hard culling decisions must be made. KSU s Beef Cattle Institute recently developed a mobile phone app, Pregnancy Analytics, to help collect and monitor pregnancy data. It allows you to enter data chute-side and look at the projected calving distribution when you are finished, Johnson explains. Information is power, and expected calving dates and projected herd calving distribution is information that more producers should put to work. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle arec.tennessee.edu USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service