Tennessee Market Highlights

Transcription

1 Tennessee Market Highlights October 23, 2015 Number: 43 Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago Slaughter Cows $2 to $4 higher Slaughter Bulls Steady to $2 higher Feeder Steers $2 to $6 higher Feeder Heifers $2 to $5 higher Feeder Cattle Index Wednesday s index: Fed Cattle The 5-area live price of $ is up $6.80. The dressed price is up $8.54 at $ Corn December closed at $3.79 a bushel, up 3 cents since last Friday. Soybeans November closed at $8.95 a bushel, down 3 cents a bushel since last Friday. Wheat December closed at $4.90 a bushel, down 2 cents a bushel since last Friday. Cotton December closed at cents per lb, down 1.09 cents per lb since last Friday. Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith FED CATTLE: Fed cattle trade was not well established at press. Asking prices in the South were around $140 to $145 while asking prices in the North were near $208. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $ live, up $6.80 from last week and $ dressed, up $8.54 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $ live and $ dressed. Uncertainty is rampant in the fed cattle market. Cattle feeders are clinging to the upswing in fed cattle futures with higher asking prices. Alternatively, packers are hesitant to jump on higher prices due to another potential collapse in boxed beef prices which would send packer margins deep into the red. Thus, packers continue countering with lower bid prices. There is no doubt that fed cattle prices still have some upside this fall, but the uncertainty rests on how high prices can go and how far will they fall once they reach their fall apex. The decline after the late year price surge is most likely what creates the most angst amongst market participants. Cattle feeders have to get cattle bought right or they could be looking at lots of red ink. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $ down $0.43 from Thursday and up $5.83 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $ up $1.02 from Thursday and up $4.72 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $6.15 compared to $5.04 a week ago. Boxed beef prices continued their rebound this week, but it seems to be an artificial market with varying degrees of manipulation. Packers have to push beef prices higher as fed cattle prices escalate or they run the risk of negative margins. Negative margins would not be a new phenomenon for packers, but it is not a desirable situation. One indicator of a misleading market is the amount of beef in cold storage. The September Cold Storage report was released by USDA-NASS on Thursday and it reported beef in cold storage was up more than 31 percent from the same month one year ago. Last year s September beef in cold storage number was relatively low, but the 2015 number still set a record for September. Similar to beef, pork in cold storage is up more than 19 percent from a year ago while chicken in cold storage is up nearly 28 percent compared to the same month one year ago. The relatively large quantity of meat protein in cold storage could pressure beef prices in coming months as the meat comes to market. OUTLOOK: There was a large positive price swing for steer and heifer calves a week ago based on the Tennessee weekly auction average. The positive movement continued this week but the magnitude was much smaller and was in the $2 to $6 range. The upward price swing was expected to some degree, but the magnitude of the price rebound was less certain. This week s increase in prices seems to indicate that prices will find it difficult to strengthen further. There could be some slight price increases from current price levels, but the upside will be limited as fundamentals will weigh against the calf market. Producers have been slowly bringing calves to market but many of the marketings were delayed due to the price decline during September and early October. Expectations are for cow-calf producers to begin bringing freshly weaned calves to town the next few weeks which will pressure prices. The fall run of calves generally places downward pressure on lightweight calves in the fall. The past two years, calf prices in the fall were higher than same weight calf prices in the spring, but producers should not expect that to happen this year as seasonal tendencies appear to be in full control. Price seasonality is introducing itself back into cattle markets for the first time since Price seasonality is not only reintroducing itself back into the calf market but also in the slaughter cow market. Utility cow prices in Ten- (Continued on page 2)

2 Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith well. Bill then reminded me about the crash in grains in the 80 s (Continued from page 1) nessee averaged better than $100 per hundredweight from July 2014 through August 2015 with the exception of one week. Prices for those utility cows are currently in the $70 to $80 range and may continue to soften. The signs of price seasonality may also be ushering in the first signs of the long forgotten cattle cycle. It will take a while for the industry to know if the cattle cycle is back in play, but it is probably a safer bet to say the cattle cycle will return rather than it to totally disappear. Producers should not expect any large price increases in the calf or cow market through the fall. It will probably be 2016 before prices find enough footing to make another strong run. Additionally, producers should not expect 2016 prices to be as strong as 2015 prices. The October cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of October 1, 2015 totaled million head, 2.3% higher than a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting an increase of 1.8%. September placements in feedlots totaled 1.93 million head, down 4.1% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements down 6.1%. September marketing s totaled 1.64 million head down 2.4% from 2014 while the pre-report estimate expectation was down 2.3%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds down 15.4%, 700 to 799 pounds down 4.1 %, and 800 pounds and over up 7.8%. which sent land values plummeting and thus cattle staying in more temperate climates in the South. The shift back to the Midwest came as land values crept back and the ethanol boon in the mid 2000 s. Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN FRIDAY S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle October $ ; December $ ; February $ ; Feeder cattle - October $ ; November $ ; January $ ; March $ ; December corn closed at $3.80 up $0.02 from Thursday. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: As a follow up to last week s question concerning why cattle feeding is concentrated in the Plains States and the Midwest, Bill H. informed me that financing ability had a lot to do with feeding in Iowa and Eastern Nebraska. Many feedlots in that part of the country are farmer/ feeders and they traditionally financed the cattle purchase by borrowing against high valued land. This structure provided a lot of equity to borrow against and it protected the lender as Average Daily Slaughter Cattle Hogs Number of head This week (4 days) 111, ,000 Last week (4 days) 111, ,000 Year ago (4 days) 112, ,250 This week as percentage of Week ago (%) 100% 98% Year ago (%) 98% 97% 2 Milk Futures Thursday October 22, 2015 Month Class III Close Class IV Close Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb USDA Box Beef Cutout Value Choice 1-3 Select lbs lbs $/cwt - Thursday Last Week Year ago Change from week ago Change from year ago

3 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Overview Corn was mixed; soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week. Harvest continues to progress in Tennessee. Corn is almost finished and soybeans should be over two thirds done by the end of the weekend. December 2015 corn futures continue to trade between $3.70 and $4.00. Failure to hold the key support level of $3.70 could see further deterioration in futures prices and challenge the contract low of $3.57 ½, established on August 12th. In October, Tennessee cash prices have held up reasonably well with a price range of $3.33 to $4.13 and an average of $3.69 reported at elevators and barge points. This compares favorably with last year s October price range and average of $2.62-$3.79 and $3.20, respectively. Soybean futures prices continue to be very difficult to forecast. Domestic and export demand have remained reasonably strong in spite of challenging external forces (strong US dollar, global economic uncertainty etc.). Additionally, there has been a propensity for the USDA to overestimate the size of the soybean carryover from one marketing year to the next, leading some to speculate that the 2015/16 estimated ending stocks of 425 million bushels (October WASDE) will shrink, perhaps substantially, thus, providing fuel for a bullish price outlook. On the other side of the coin are back-to-back domestic crops of almost 4 billion bushels and four consecutive years of record Brazilian production culminating in this year s, USDA projected, crop of 3.67 billion bushels. Supplies of that magnitude would likely push prices substantially lower than today s levels. Currently, November 2015 soybeans continue to trade near $9.00 with a harvest trading range of $8.53-$9.20. In Tennessee, October cash soybean prices have been between $8.49 and $9.41 with an average of just under $9.00. Unlike corn, this is substantially below last year s October range and average of $8.65-$10.87 and $9.65, respectively. For the past 465-calendar days (with a few exceptions), cotton has traded between 60 and 68 cents. Unfortunately, futures prices in this range translate into negative margins for most producers in Tennessee. A break out of this range before the New Year seems less and less likely, however a move to the upper end of the range in January-February remains a possibility. Producers that need to sell at harvest may want to consider buying call options to participate in an early 2016 rally should one occur. Corn December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.79 up 3 cents since last week. This week, December 2015 corn futures traded between $3.72 and $3.83. Across Tennessee, average basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, Memphis, Upper-middle, and Lower-middle Tennessee and weakened at Northwest Barge Points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 41 under to 20 over the December futures contract with an average of 12 under at the end of the week. Ethanol production for the week ending October 16th was 951,000 barrels per day down 2,000 from last week. Ending ethanol stocks were million barrels down 84,000 barrels from last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters from October 9th to 15th were below expectations with net sales of 9.8 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were down from last week at 16.1 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 25% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 43%. Nationally, this week s Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 68% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; corn mature at 98% compared to 94% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and corn harvested at 59% compared to 42% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 54%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 85% good-to-excellent and 2% poor-to-very poor; corn mature at 99% compared to 99% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 100%; and corn harvested at 93% compared to 87% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $3.80 December 2015 Put Option costing 8 cents establishing a $3.72 futures floor. 3 (Continued on page 4)

4 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith In Tennessee, January 2016 cash forward contracts averaged $3.80 with a range of $3.58 to $4.00. March 2016 corn futures closed at $3.88 up 1 cent since last week. Dec/Mar and Dec/Sep future spreads were 9 cents and 17 cents, respectively. September 2016 corn futures closed at $3.96 down 1 cent since last week. Soybeans November 2015 soybean futures closed at $8.95 down 3 cents since last week. This week November 2015 soybean futures traded between $8.89 and $9.13. November/December soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.36 at the end of the week. For the week, average soybean basis strengthened at Lower-middle Tennessee and weakened at Northwest Barge Points, Northwest, Memphis, and Upper-middle Tennessee. Basis ranged from 35 under to 17 over the November futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 8 under the November futures contract. Net sales reported by exporters were above expectations with net sales of 74.6 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year and 0.06 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 85.6 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 56% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 62%. Nationally, this week s Crop Progress report estimated soybeans dropping leaves at 94% compared to 92% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and soybeans harvested at 77% compared to 62% last week, 51% last year, and a 5-year average of 68%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 75% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; soybeans dropping leaves at 94% compared to 88% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and soybeans harvested at 51% compared to 34% last week, 29% last year, and a 5-year average of 44%. In Tennessee, January 2015 cash forward contracts averaged $8.99 with a range of $8.71 to $9.24 at elevators and barge points. January 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.96 down 6 cents since last week. Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 1 cent and 2 cents, respectively. November/September 2016 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.27 at the end of the week. November 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.97 down 5 cents from last week. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.00 November 2016 Put Option which would cost 62 cents and set an $8.38 futures floor. Cotton December 2015 cotton futures closed at down 1.09 cents since last week. December 2015 cotton futures traded between and cents this week. Adjusted world price (AWP) increased 1.67 cents to cents per pound. Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 22nd were to cents/lb. Net sales reported by exporters were up from last week with net sales of 96,900 bales for the 2015/16 marketing year and 9,300 bales for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 61,200 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 37% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 58%. Nationally, this week s Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 46% good-to-excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 94% compared to 89% last week, 85% last year, and 5-year average of 89%; and cotton harvested at 31% compared to 22% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 32%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 80% good-to-excellent and 2% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 93% compared to 87% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; and cotton harvested at 25% compared to 14% last week, 19% last year, and a 5-year average of 43%. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 63 cent December 2015 Put Option costing 1.32 cents establishing a cent futures floor. March 2016 cotton futures closed at 62.6 down 1.1 cents since last week. Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were cents and 0.51 cents, respectively. December 2016 cotton futures closed at down 0.49 cents since last week. 4 (Continued on page 5)

5 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Wheat December 2015 wheat futures closed at $4.90 down 2 cents since last week. December wheat futures traded between $4.83 and $5.00 this week. December wheat-to-corn price ratio was Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 13.1 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year and 0.06 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 7.8 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 53% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 59%. Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 7 cents and 13 cents, respectively. March 2016 wheat futures closed at $4.97 down 3 cents from last week. Nationally, this week s Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted at 76% compared to 64% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; and winter wheat emerged at 49% compared to 33% last week, 54% last year, and a 5-year average of 49%. In Tennessee, winter wheat planted was estimated at 37% compared to 19% last week, 24% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%; and winter wheat emerged at 11% compared to 2% last week, 10% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, June/July cash forward contracts averaged $4.82 with a range of $4.00 to $5.12. July 2016 wheat futures closed at $5.03 down 5 cents since last week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.10 July 2016 Put Option costing 36 cents establishing a $4.74 futures floor. Additional Information: If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu. 5

6 Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock Friday, October 16, 2015 Thursday, October 22, 2015 Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Soybeans Nov ($/bushel) Jan Mar May Jul Aug Corn Dec ($/bushel) Mar May Jul Sep Dec Wheat Dec ($/bushel) Mar May Jul Sep Soybean Meal Dec ($/ton) Jan Mar May Jul Aug Cotton Dec ( /lb) Mar May Jul Oct Live Cattle Oct ($/cwt) Dec Feb Apr Jun Feeder Cattle Oct ($/cwt) Nov Jan Mar Apr May Market Hogs Oct ($/cwt) Dec Feb Apr May

7 Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2 This Week Last Week Year Ago Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average $/cwt lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Holstein Steers lbs lbs lbs Slaughter Cows & Bulls Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending October 23, 2015 Breakers 75-80% Boners 80-85% Lean 85-90% Bulls YG Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Cattle Receipts: This week: 8,348 (10) Week ago: 6,559 (10) Year ago: 11,873 (12) 7

8 Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2014, 2015 and 5-year average Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2014, 2015 and 5-year average /2013 Avg /2013 Avg Area Finished Cattle Prices 2014, 2015 and 5-year average Tennessee Slaughter Cow Prices Breakers 75-80% 2014, 2015 and 5-year average 2009/2013 Avg /2013 Avg Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators Friday, October 16, 2015 Thursday, October 22, 2015 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High $/bushel No. 2 Yellow Soybeans Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Yellow Corn Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Wheat Memphis 8

9 Video Sales East Tennessee Livestock Center - October 21, load out of 69 steers; est. wt. 825 lbs., wt. range 775 to 875 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 826 lbs.; 95% L&M-1s, 5% L&M-2s; medium flesh; 80% Black/BWF, 15% Chax/Smoky, 5% Red/RWF; Feed: on pasture plus hay with self-feeder receiving corn gluten/soy hull mix last 5 weeks; vaccinated; dewormed; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 2% shrink $ load out of 75 heifers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 750 lbs., wt. range 700 to 800 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 751 lbs.; 95% M-1s, 5% M-2s; medium flesh; All Black/BWF except 1 Chax and 1 RWF; Feed: on pasture receiving corn silage/corn gluten based ration; vaccinated twice; dewormed; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 2% shrink $ load out of 70 Holstein steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 850 lbs., wt. range 750 to 900 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 751 lbs.; 95% #1s, 5% #2s; medium flesh; Feed: on pasture receiving silage daily; double-vaccinated; dewormed twice; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 2% shrink $ load out of 120 Holstein steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 865 lbs., wt. range 815 to 915 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 866 lbs.; 100% #1s; medium flesh; Feed: on pasture receiving ground hay/ corn gluten/crushed corn mix; vaccinated twice; dewormed twice; gathered early a.m., hauled 25 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 1% shrink $ Hardin County Stockyard - October 21, loads of 106 steers; avg. wt. 894 lbs.; $ load of 58 steers; avg. wt. 900 lbs.; $ loads of 102 steers; avg. wt. 985 lbs.; $ load of 67 heifers; avg. wt. 721 lbs,; $ Video Board Sale and Graded Sales 10/16/15 East Tennessee Livestock Holstein Steer Sale Receipts: 796 Holstein Steers Lg 3 Holstein Steers Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Self-Reported & Self-Graded Livestock Markets 10/21/15 Browning Livestock Auction, Lafayette, TN Receipts: 2100 For complete report: Oct_Self_Graded_Auction_Reports.txt 10/19/15 KY/TN Livestock Cross Plains Receipts: 170 Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg 1& lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs /19/15 Morris Brothers Stockyard, Pikeville, TN Receipts: 113 Steers: Heifers: lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Over 799 lbs Bulls: lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs

10 Beef Industry News Featured Article from DROVERS CattleNetwork Start heifers right, benefit for years By John Maday, Editor, Bovine Veterinarian October 20, 2015 A high percentage of a cow herd calving during the first 21 days of the season provides multiple benefits to the cow-calf producer. During a recent media event hosted by Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica Inc., Kansas State University veterinarian Brad White, DVM, MS, outlined how good management and timely breeding of replacement heifers can create long-term momentum, with more early calving females resulting in heavier weaning weights and better cow longevity. White notes that in most well-managed herds, fertilization at first breeding occurs about 90 percent of the time. However, early embryonic loss results in first-breeding pregnancy rates averaging around 60 to 65 percent. For this reason, it is unrealistic to expect all heifers and cows to calve during the first 21 days of the calving season, but producers can use strategies to optimize early breeding and early calving. A good target, White says, is to have 65 percent of the herd calving within the first 21 days of the season, 20 percent calving in the next 21 days and 10 percent in the final 21 days. This assumes a 5 percent incidence of open cows at the end of the 63-day breeding season. White refers to this situation as being front-end loaded in terms of reproduction. Numerous studies have shown multiple benefits resulting from two-thirds or more of the herd calving in the first 21 days. White cites a 13-year summary from Rick Funston, PhD, at the University of Nebraska. In that study, 70 percent of females that calved in the first 21 days were cycling at the start of the breeding season the following year, compared with 58 percent of the cows that calved in the second 21 days and 33 percent for the cows that calved in the final 21 days. In that same study, 81 percent of the cows that calved during the first 21 days were pregnant after first breeding the following season, compared with 69 percent for the middle group and 65 percent for the late-calvers. That benefit carries over from year to year, as the cows that calved in the early group were more likely to do so the next year and subsequent years. Calves born in the first 21 days of the season tend to have heavier weaning weights than later-born calves, and that benefit carries over, with the Funston study showing hot-carcass weights averaging 816 pounds for those calves compared with 803 for the middle group and 777 pounds for the late group. Data on more than 18,000 cows at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center at Clay Center, Neb. shows those that calve in the first 21 days also stay in the herd longer. Average age those cows were diagnosed as open following breeding was 8 years, compared with 7.5 years for the second group and 7 years for the late-calving group. Weaning weights were heavier for the early calving group out to 6 years, and added up to the equivalent weight of one extra calf from the early calving versus latecalving cows. White stresses that once a cow falls into a later-calving schedule it is difficult to bring her back to early calving. The typical post-partum interval for cows, or the time it takes to return to estrus after calving, is about 55 to 60 days. Cows that calve during the first 21 days of the season will have about 62 to 82 days between calving and the start of the next breeding season, meaning virtually all have begun cycling at breeding. Cows that calve during the second 21 days of the season have only 41 to 61 days between calving and breeding, while those that calve in the final 21 days have only 20 to 40 days between calving and breeding. So, the later a cow calves, the less likely it becomes that she is cycling at the start of breeding, meaning she will again conceive later and calve later. Heifers have a longer post-partum interval of around 80 to 100 days, which is why it is important to breed heifers at least 30 days prior to breeding cows, to set them up for a lifetime of early calving. So, if a herd has shifted away from the ideal front-end-loaded calving schedule, such as with one-third of the herd calving in each of the three 21-day periods during the season, what can the producer do to shift more cows into the group calving during the first 21 days? White outlined several options: Cull late-calving cows and replace them with heifers bred to calve early. Depending on the situation, this could be a costly and drastic option. Shift the calving season later by intentionally moving early calving cows into the later groups. This involves numerous tradeoffs, including likely lighter calf weaning weights, but could be a viable option in some cases. It does not address whatever underlying problems moved cows into latercalving groups, and over time the trend probably will repeat itself. Fix the problem with replacement heifers and natural attrition of older cows. This option, while it takes time, probably is the most viable for most producers. By managing replacement heifers appropriately, with good nutrition, health and timely breeding, a producer can increase the percentage of early calving females while some late calvers fall out of the herd each year. Over time, the herd becomes more front-end loaded and probably more profitable. Click here for a short video of Dr. White discussing heifer development and reproductive momentum. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service