Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015

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1 Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015 Alina Zharko Association Ukrainian agribusiness club

2 Dairy products Production of milk and dairy products in Ukraine Dairy products foreign trade Results of 2014 and expectations of the dairy industry development in 2015 Global milk market trends Main exporters and importers of dairy products The EU market and other alternative markets for dairy products Meat and meat products Production of cattle meat Production of pork Production of poultry meat Meat and meat products foreign trade Results of 2014 and expectations of livestock industry development in 2015 The EU meat market NICHE PRODUCTS

3 Milk

4 Production of milk in Ukraine, mln. t. Agricultural enterprises 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,9 % 2,2 % 2,25 2,54 2,58 2,68 2, * 2015* Households 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 2,0 % 6,0 % 8,84 8,85 8,90 8,72 8, * 2015* *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

5 Production of dairy products, January-October 2013, to 2013 Liquid milk processed, thous. t 795,2 915,0 115% Milk for infant nutrition, thous. t 10,2 11,4 112% Skimmed milk powder 35,5 50,5 142% Whole milk powder, thous. t 11,4 10,6 93% Butter, thous. t 78,2 100,5 129% Cheese, thous. t 140,3 107,1 76% Milk and cream, concentrated, thous. t 47,6 43,3 91% Yoghurt and other fermented products, thous. t 434,6 399,8 92% Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

6 Milk products foreign trade January-October 2013, 2014 Export, thous. t * 0 Beef Pork Poultry Import, thous. t 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 3,7 2, * 0,0 Beef Pork Poultry

7 The loss of the Russian market Results of 2014 Revenue from dairy products export to Russia in 2014 amounted to $119 mln., and in $374 mln. Reorientation from cheese production to the production of butter and dried milk Development of the tendency towards reducing of cow population Increasing of productivity of cows due to improved technology of cattle feeding and management The inspection of the dairy industry by the European Union Reducing of domestic consumption of milk and dairy products The outflow of raw milk to Crimea, Belarus and Transdniestria

8 Expectations of the dairy industry of Ukraine in 2015 Reorientation in the foreign trade of dairy products: development of existed and search for new sales markets A further reduction in cow population Increased competition in the dairy market Prices for raw milk will be under pressure Entry of Ukrainian products to the EU market

9 Global milk market trends Increasing of milk production: European Union - 7%, New Zealand - 13%, USA - 3% compared to the previous year The changes in the geography of world trade as a result of Russian sanctions Increasing of the requirements for dairy products quality Prices of milk and dairy products show a downward trend In 2015 the quota for milk production in the EU will be abolished

10 Global exporters of dairy products Whole milk powder 6% 3% 11% New Zealand 21% 59% EU Argentina Australia Other Butter 6% 4% 2% 9% 17% 62% New Zealand EU USA Australia Argentina India Other 24% Skimmed milk powder 0% 4% 9% 29% 34% EU USA New Zealand Australia India Other 4% 5% Cheese 11% 46% 17% 15% EU USA New Zealand Australia Argentina Ukraine Other Source: milknet.ru

11 Global importers of dairy products 4% 4% 3% 7% 7% Whole milk powder 7% 42% 27% China Algeria Brazil Indonesia Russia Philippines Taiwan 7% 4% 2% 5% 7% 13% 19% Butter 43% Russia EU Mexico Australia Taiwan USA Ukraine 12% 13% Skimmed milk powder 15% 20% Mexico Indonesia 20% China Russia 7% 13% Algeria Philippines Other 7% 7% 7% 7% 11% 10% Cheese 20% 32% Russia Japan USA Mexico Korea Australia EU Source: milknet.ru

12 Activation of dairy products trade with Russian Federation Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, (044)

13 EU Dairy market, 2013 Cow population Milk production Milk processing 23,4 mln 153,4 mln. t 141,7 mln. t Production Export Import self-sufficiency, % Fresh dairy products (drinking milk, cream, acidified milk, buttermilk and milk-based drinks), thous. t ,2% Dried skimmed milk, thous. t ,3 Dried whole milk, thous. t ,2% Butter, thous. t ,5% Cheese, thous. t ,9% ec.europa.eu; clal.it

14 Main importers of milk products to EU markets Dried skimmed milk Norway 62 % USA 22 % Algeria -10 % Switzerland, Island, Syria, New Zealand Butter New Zealand 86 % USA 8 % Switzerland 5 % Australia, Island, Canada Cheese Switzerland 68 % New Zealand 16% Australia, Norway, USA, Canada, Island ec.europa.eu Украинский клуб аграрного бизнеса, (044)

15 Alternative markets for Ukrainian dairy products Development of existing markets: Kazakhstan Moldova Georgia Azerbaijan Armenia The development of markets in the reorientation of exporters: Saudi Arabia South Africa Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Taiwan Mastering of basic import markets: China Algeria Japan

16 China Import of dairy products Import, thous. t 2012 Import, thous. t 2013 Packaged drinking milk Dried milk for infant nutrition (Infant formula (HS ) Skimmed milk powder Whole milk powder Butter Cheese Main exporters Germany - 47% New Zealand % Australia % France, USA, Poland Netherlands % France % New Zealand - 16% Singapore, Denmark, Ireland New Zealand - 53% US -22.7% Germany - 7% New Zealand - 91% Australia - 2.3% Uruguay, Argentina New Zealand - 89 Australia - 3.5% France Belgium, USA, Argentina New Zealand % Australia % USA % France, Italy, Denmark

17 Meat and meat products

18 Production of beef and veal, thous. t * 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecas Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

19 Експорт м яса ВРХ Beef, fresh or chilled January-October thous. t ( 43 %) Revenue $20,7 mln.usa Frozen beef January-October thous. t ( 33%) Revenue - $44.9 mln.usa Structure revenue from exports of fresh and chilled beef 1,80% 1,77% 0,33% Structure of revenue from exports of frozen beef 15,04% 7,75% 45,35% 96,10% 31,87% Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

20 Exports of live cattle January-August thousand. Units (4.7 thousand tons). $ 8 mln. January-August thousand. Units (1.1 thousand tons). $ 3.1 mln. Main export markets: Azerbaijan - 76% Syria - 12% Libya - 7% Russia - 4% Barriers to exports: Export duties in %

21 Pork production in Ukraine, thous. t * 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, (044)

22 Export of pork January-October thous. t( in 2 times) Revenue - $18.7 mln. Structure of revenue from exports of pork 0,8% 1,0% 27,3% Moldova Russia Other countries Belarus 70,8% Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

23 Production of poultry meat in Ukraine, thous. t * 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

24 Exports of poultry and its by-products January-October thous. t ( 21 %) Revenue - $231.3 mln. 53,0% Structure of revenue from exports of poultry and its by-products 20,9% 15,3% Iraq Netherlands Kazakhstan Other countries Poultry shipments to the EU under the quota thous. t (January-October 2014) 10,9% Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

25 Meat foreign trade Export, thous. t * 0 Beef Pork Poultry Import, thous. t 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 3,7 2, * 0,0 Beef Pork Poultry *Forecast Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

26 Meat and meat products: results of 2014 The successful development of the European market by Ukrainian poultry exporters Reduction of meat imports, especially pork The positive trade balance of meat and by-products (10 months + $113.8 mln.) The rapid increase in meat prices Reducing of the demand for meat from the public

27 Expectations of development of Ukrainian meat industry in 2015 Increasing of production of pork and poultry Stagnation of beef production Increasing of the share of domestic meat on market Activation of work on obtaining a permit for export of beef and pork

28 Meat Market of the European Union 2013 Production Export Import self-sufficiency, % Beef, thous. t Pork, thous. t Poultry meat, thous. t Sheep and goat meat, thous. t ,6% ,0% ,2% ,1% ec.europa.eu

29 The main suppliers of meat to the EU market Beef Brazil - 44% Uruguay % Argentina % Australia, USA, New Zealand Pork Switzerland - 50% Chile - 16% Serbia - 9% Norway, Thailand Poultry meat Brazil % Thailand % Chile, China, Argentina, Switzerland, Israel, Ukraine Sheep and goat meat New Zealand % Australia - 9.3% Macedonia, Uruguay, Argentina ec.europa.eu

30 NICHE PRODUCTS

31 Exports of honey January-October thous. t ($70.9 mln.) January-October thous. t ($40.6 mln.) Main export markets: Germany % USA Poland % Turkey, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Canada Quota for duty-free exports to the EU - 5 thous. t Джерело: Митна статистика України

32 Export of niche animal products, January-October 2014 Sheep and goat - 5 t (Azerbayzhan - 79%, Cyprus - 5.3%, Hong Kong - 5.3%) Meat of rabbit kg (Panama) What niche products have the potential to export?

33 / Thank you for attention!

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