Presentation on Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Bangladesh

Transcription

1 Presentation on Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Bangladesh Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Nansen Centers 25 years Colloquium in honour of Fridtjof Nansens 150 years anniversary at VilVite Conference Center, Thormøhlens gate 51, Bergen Friday 18 November 2011 BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House # 10, Road # 16A, Gulshan- 1, Dhaka- 1212, Bangladesh Phone: (+880-2) , , ; Fax: (+880-2) info@bcas.net; Website: 1

2 Outline of the discussion Geographical location and vulnerability context Climate Change Impacts: Bangladesh Case Study Development Climate Change Linkages Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages Climate smart adaptation Climate Change, Disaster and Displacement Government of Bangladesh s response Community Based Adaptation Concluding Remarks 2

3 Relief Map of South Asia Pakistan Nepal India Myanmar

4 The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous effects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well. Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia

5 Climate Change Impacts: Context of Bangladesh The very geophysical location makes the country most vulnerable to climate change Impacts Himalayans in the north Sea (the Bay of Bengal) in the south with long coast Vast deltaic floodplain and riverine Charland Large population with low resources base Wide spread poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity Frequent nature and man-made disasters Poor governance and institutional weakness Climate change is additional threat to: Overall development of the country Poverty alleviation and livelihood promotion Sectoral development (agriculture, water, health etc.) Infrastructure and rural development Disaster preparedness and risk reduction

6 Bangladesh at the lower end of Himalayan River Systems vbangladesh is at the lower end of the Himalayan drainage ecosystem; vcomprises only 8 percent of the GBM system and carry about 92 percent of water flow; vaverage monsoon flow varies from 80,000 to 140,000 cubic meter/sec vcarries billion tons of sediment to the Bay of Bengal

7 Location of the Bangladesh in South Asia

8 The Complex River Systems 1. Unique geographical location 2. Dominance of flood plain 3. Himalayan drainage eco-system Water Tower Water Sink 8

9 Vulnerability to Extreme Climatic Events: BANGLADESH CASE STUDY 7 major region based impacts 1. Sea Level Rise 2. Increase of cyclone (Intensity & Frequency) 3. Enhanced intrusion of salt water 4. Increased flood (Intensity & Frequency) 5. Drought 6. River Bank Erosion 7. Erratic Rainfall These above impacts combined to create 4 generic impacts 8. Food security 9. Water security 10. Health impacts 11. Displacement and migration 9

10 Vulnerability to Extreme Climate Events: Bangladesh case study Sea Level Rise 10

11 Cyclone 11

12 Erratic Rainfall 12

13 Flood Flood

14 Flood Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences in Last 30 Years Flooded Area Area affected % Last 30 years Last 10 years Return period (Years) For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already occurred twice during the last 10 years. 14

15 River Bank Erosion 15

16 EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION, AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075 DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON) Very Severe Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Less Moderate Drought Slight Drought EXISTING DROUGHT Very Slight to Nil Severe & Moderate Moderate & Less Moderate Sunderbans Forest ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030 ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN

17 Health Source: IPCC AR4,

18 Food Security About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield in 2020 and 5 to 30% by 2050 compared with 1990 CO2 levels Decrease production of livestock, Increase of pest attack Decrease production of fisheries 18

19 CC-WatSan-Health-Livelihood-Poverty Poverty Health CC Livelihood WatSan 60-70% global impacts of climate change can be reflected in water. This is: a. Too much water b. Too little water c. Wrong type of water d. Wrong timing of water 19

20 Bangladesh: Major Concerns Water Security Food Security Livelihood Security Health Security Energy Security qall ARE LINKED WITH POVERTY qeach AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 20

21 POVERTY-CLIMATE CHANGE LINKAGES POVERTY INCREASED Flooding Damage to crop, fisheries, LS LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD No water for Crop, fisheries, LS Reduce production due to salinity Heavy rainfall in short time cause damage to crop No rainfall during seedling, transplantation, tillering, pinnacle initiation stage Food Security & Health Too much water Too little water Wrong type of water Wrong timing of water Destroy sanitation system Water pollution through pathogens Mosquito breeding Poor sanitation Saline water Water polluted with fecal coli form Water logging Vector (Virus) Sanitation & Health HEALTH HAZARD POVERTY INCREASED 21

22 Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages Climate Change Signal Temperature (e.g. heat waves) Hydrology (e.g. Floods & Droughts) Extreme Events (e.g. Cyclone & Hurricanes) Poverty Alleviation/MDGs Source: Saleem et al..,

23 Impact-Vulnerability-Adaptation: Relationship Impact Event = X Intensity of Event Baseline X Conditions Adaptive Capacity

24 WHY POVERTY IS A CONCERN? Cyclone is not the only disaster poverty is the main disaster...dr. M. Yunus, (Cyclone 91, BCAS)

25 Time (Year) DISASTER/HEALTH HAZARD $ (D E V)

26 Schematic Diagram Showing Severe Impact of Disaster and Health Hazards on Poverty and SD $ (D E V) Time (Year)

27 OUTPUT WELL-BEING INDEX PROGRESSION OF HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING DISASTER HEALTH HAZARD POVERTY LINE HOUSEHOLD LIFE PERIOD/YEARS 27

28 Climate smart adaptation benefits Dividend in climate smart development Development ($) Climate impacted development loss Time (t) years Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and Adaptation Achievements 28

29 Climate Change Science and Sustainable Development Linkage Key Components of Sustainable Development Economic growth [goods & services] Environment [integrity & sustainability] Society [Justice & Access]

30 Climate Change regional and global policy implications Climate Change Development Disasters Displacement 30

31 Displacement potential and future strategies Strategic Preference of Displacement Reluctance to Move q Very few want to move from their own homestead; Move to Proximate Cities q First move to adjacent urban centres (social network,, food habits, language (dialect) familiarity Move to Megacities q National cities/megacities (mostly in slums) Move to Abroad (limited) q International migration Mass migration q Who goes where???? Climate Impacted Displacement Decision 31

32 Bangladesh Response to Climate Government of Bangladesh s response Change NAPA BCCSAP

33 Government of Bangladesh s response Two funds created vbangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund $200 million GoB own fund and programs are being implemented by GoB agencies vbangladesh Climate Resilience Fund- $120 million from development partners managed by World bank 33

34 National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA), Bangladesh NAPA serves as simplified and direct channels of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs to climate change. NAPA has been prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forests as a response to the decision of the COP7 of the UNFCCC.

35 The Outcomes of NAPA vpreparation and approval of NAPA with identification of Priority Areas (November 2005) vagreement on 15 Project Ideas as Immediate and Urgent needs vsubmission to UNFCCC

36 Bangladesh Climate Change and Strategy Action Plan (BCCSAP) qonly the last step in a long journey Since 1998 various studies, modeling, Bangladesh in IPCC qbangladesh in global negotiations; NAPA & BAP submission by Bangladesh all contributed to the Strategy formulation and Action Plan q Basic principles of Strategy q Four securities inviolate Food Water Energy and Livelihood (including health) qall four Bali elements adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and finance to be addressed Integral part of development process, poverty reduction and employment generation qcommensurate institutional and human capacity development

37 SIX PILLARS of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) (1) Food Security, Social Protection and Health; (2) Comprehensive Disaster Management; (3) Infrastructure Development; (4) Research and Knowledge Management; (5) Mitigation and low-carbon development; and (6) Capacity Building and Institutional Development The Action Plan consists of 44 programs and 145 projects for implementation within the time period of BCCSAP will be an integral part of national development policies, plans and programs.

38 PEOPLE S ADAPTATION ADAPTATION IS HAPPENING qclimate Change is here and now. qcommunities across the world facing impacts and adapting. qsome are adapting in the fullest knowledge of CC impacts qothers are adapting intuitively/experientially Peoples response

39 Community Based Adaptation BCAS with IIED has organized five world conference on community based adaptation (CBAs) o Sharing of experiences of CBAS by scientists, practitioners and policy makers o Emergence of a science of CBA 39

40 o Increasing sectoral and integrated CBA approaches o CBA 4 Dar es Salam, Tanzania, November 2009-CBA in Africa o CBA 5 Dhaka, Bangladesh March 2011-Beyond pilots o CBA 6- April 2012 Vietnam-communicating CBA 40

41 Peoples response 350 international Participants to the 5 th International Conference on CBA (Community Based Adaptation ) visited sites in March 2011

42 CONCLUDING REMARKS 42

43 CRITICAL ISSUES- 1 vmitigation must, adaptation too vimplementing principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities vbali Action Plan omitigation oadaptation ofinancing and otechnology transfer 43

44 CRITICAL ISSUES- 2 vcop 15 Copenhagen Hopenhagen to Brokenhaven!!! vcop 17, Durban, the burial of Kyoto Protocol vtomorrows world: enhanced disasters and extreme events vpoorest will be hardest hit, rich keep on emitting vwho will reduce emission, when??? 44

45 CRITICAL ISSUES- 3 vannex 1 countries paralyzed by economic crisis and financial mismanagement vglobal leaders incapacitated vclimate change impacts more visible vcc the greatest injustice in human history 45

46 Raised Plinth Height Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID

47 Homestead Garden on Raised Plinth

48 Raised Plinth of Toilet

49 Livestock During Flood Raising Plinth

50 Preservation of Household Assets Over False Ceiling Storage of Food during Flood

51 Storage of Safe Drinking Water & Dry Food

52 Community based rain water harvesting Household based rain water harvesting

53 Locally Known as Baira Cultivation Floating Garden During Flood

54 Raised Tube Well

55 Store Extra Furnace

56 Protecting Income Generating Activity Protecting from Erosion

57 Water Collection in Hilly Region

58 Community People Using the Water of Re-excavated Pond

59 Pond Sand Filter

60 Household Based Rain Water Harvesting in Drought Prone Area

61 Drip Irrigation

62 Household Based Irrigation Farming

63 Crab Farming in Saline Water

64 Saline Tolerant Rice

65 Chickpeas in Drought Area

66 Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal Making Soil heap Seed storage system/seed bank Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery

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68 THANK YOU

69 WAY FORWARD Things are happening Cooperation in Action Water-Energy Security Nexus Climate Change: An Emerging Threat for South Asia THANK YOU 69