CLIMATE, SUGAR YIELDS AND IRRIGATIOPT RESPONSE IN QUEENSLAND

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1 1970 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE CLIMATE, SUGAR YIELDS AND IRRIGATIOPT RESPONSE IN QUEENSLAND By B. J. WHITE Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane Summary Sugar yields over the period have been analysed as a function of rainfall in ten predominantly non-irrigated mill areas along the Queensland coast. The analysis used a monthly water-use model with the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to Class A pan evaporation increasing from approximately 0.6 in September to 1.1 in February and March and decreasing to 0.8 in June. In the lower rainfall and higher yield variability areas of North Eton, Isis and Maryborough the yield response to water use varied over the September to June period with maximum values in the January to April period. At North Eton, for example, maximum water use efficiency was 0.2 tons of sugar per inch in February and March compared to values less than 0.1 in other periods. It is postulated that water use efficiencies are related to temperature and radiation. In situations where water supplies are limited, it is suggested that irrigation practice based on yield response related to time of application, rather than total irrigation application, could result in considerable economies in the quantity of irrigation applied, while maintaining yields. More detailed weekly water use models could be developed to determine the economic optimum irrigation application. Introduction As a consequence of several disastrous drought years during the last decade, the State Government has conducted feasibility studies of major irrigation schemes costing $87 million in the Bundaberg and Mackay sugar cane regions. The Department of Primary Industries has been involved in the economic aspects of these schemes and engineering investigations have been done by the Irrigation and Water Supply Commission. The importance of irrigation in most sugar cane areas has been increasingly recognized. Over the last twenty years, the percentage of the total sugar cane area irrigated has increased from 14 per cent to 24 per cent. Sugar cane at present accounts for 40 per cent of the total area of all crops irrigated in Queensland. In the economic analysis of a major irrigation scheme the most important factor is the yield response for a given quantity and capital cost of irrigation water. Although considerable data are available on yields with irrigation, there were generally little available data on quantities of irrigation water applied. To determine quantitative relationships between water use and yields, analyses were made of dryland yields in relation to rainfall. The concepts have been used in an extended study of climatic factors influencing yields in ten predominantly dryland mill areas along the Queensland Coast.

2 58 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 1970 Climate Bieske (1967) and Ham (1969) have illustrated the dependence of growth rate as measured by stalk elongation on mean daily temperature. Ham showed negligible growth below 75 F whereas growth rates recorded by Bieske showed a linear response above 70 F. However, it has been shown that the slope of the relationship between dry-matter production and temperature is related to radiation receipts (Anon., 1964). Using monthly mean temperature data (Bureau of Meteorology, 1956), the length of the growing season for five centres along the Queensland coast has been calculated from the number of months with mean temperatures exceeding 70 F. The data are presented in Table I. The summation of degree days above 70 F are also presented and provide an index of growth potential. Because of the importance of radiation, Wang (1963) has suggested the use of an energy-degree unit which is the product of degree days and radiation. The total of this index calculated on a monthly basis for the growing season is presented in Table I. Radiation was estimated from monthly maps for Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, 1964). The data of Table I show a considerable decrease in growth potential, as determined by temperature and radiation, in the southern areas where standover two year crops are often grown. Although the Burdekin is slightly inferior to the wet tropical coast in terms of degree days, it is superior when radiation is taken into account. The lower radiation on the wet tropical coast is a result of increased rainfall and cloud cover. Methods 1. Water Use Models: Analysis of plant growth requires consideration of both the evaporative demand for moisture and moisture supply as determined by rainfall and irrigation. The C.S.I.R.O. Division of Land Research as illustrated by Fitzpatrick (1965) has developed water-use models using weekly rainfall and evaporation data to produce a soil moisture storage budget. The models have been used in a wide range of agricultural and hydrological situations. In limited application to sugar cane, the model has proved useful in determining relationships between rainfall and yields (White, 1969). Similar results, although not as precise, can be obtained by using a simple monthly water use analysis with no allowance for storage and this approach has been adopted. When more data are available on the water TABLE I-Climatic indices for five regions Note: (I) Climatic data are the mean of Cairns and Innisfail. (2) Climatic data are for Ayr. (3) Climatic data are for Brisbane.

3 1970 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 59 relations of cane in different environments a more detailed model incorporating temperature could be used. 2. Evapotranspiration Data: Under Queensland conditions, Yates (1964) and Ham (1969) have published data on evapotranspiration of sugar cane as determined from lysimeter studies at Fairymead and the Burdekin respectively. Both studies have shown that the ratio (the "f' factor) of potential E (Evapotranspiration) to water evaporation varies over the growing season. However, there are several difficulties involved in extrapolating lysimeter data to field conditions. As Penman (1963) states, "there is no field of open air research in which edge effects can be as important as in evaporation studies". He further states that for a circular test area, diameter d, projecting height h above its surroundings, the additional area intercepting radiation as a fraction of the test area is 4hld. Thus, a cane crop 10 ft high would need a test area of 160 ft diameter to reduce additional radiation to 25 per cent. Yates (1967) suggested that the high E rates and "f" factors obtained in his lysimeter experiment were probably influenced by high levels of advective energy. Yields for the Burdekin lysimeter of the equivalent of over 10 tons of sugar per acre may be related to the buffer area of 35 feet increasing radiation to levels not possible under field conditions. The "f' factors determined by Yates were based on an estimate of open water evaporation, although Australian tank evaporation data were also recorded. The Burdekin used a Class A pan. Yates' "f' factors were adjusted to a Class A pan basis using a relationship between Class A pan and Tank evaporation. The ratio used of Class A pan to Tank evaporation varied from 1.4 in mid-summer to 1.1 in mid-winter. This ratio was based on comparisons at Mackay for a four year period. On a comparable basis, there is a close agreement between the "f' factors derived for Fairymead and the Burdekin. The "f" factor increases from about 0.7 in September to a maximum of 1.2 in January, February, March and declines to 0.9 in July. It is probable that the "f' factor is an TABLE Il-Rainfall and yield data for mill areas Note: (I) Determined from mean yield over period adjusted for trend per year. (2) Excluding variation due to time trend over period

4 60 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 1970 increasing function of the height of the crop and a combination of temperature and radiation, i.e. it is environment dependent. To determine monthly potential E rates for field conditions, where advective energy is considered to have less effect, the above "f' factors were reduced by approximately 15 per cent. The "f' factors used increased from 0.6 in September by 0.1 per month to 1.1 in February and March and decreased to 0.8 in June by 0.1 per month. The monthly "f' factors and the relationship between Class A pan and Tank evaporation were applied to evaporation figures estimated from monthly Tank evaporation maps (Bureau of Meteorology, 1966) to derive monthly potential E. 3. Water Use: Water use (actual E ) was calculated for each month by assuming that all monthly rainfall up to potential E equals water use. Rainfall above potential E is considered to be surplus-either deep percolation or runoff. The monthly modei does not allow explicitly for effects of soil moisture storage on water use. Comparisons for Childers, using a weekly water use model with E related to soil moisture storage (maximum of four inches), showed that total annual average water use for a 25 year period was three per cent less for the monthly model. Thus, errors tend to cancel out when water use is aggregated on an annual basis. Preliminary analyses indicated that water use variations outside the period September to June had no statistically significant effects on final yield. The September to June period was adopted for all centres. In more complex models, the growing season as determined by temperature and radiation (including advective energy related to crop height) could be used. As the response to water use varied seasonally, monthly water use was totalled for four periods: September to November, December- January, February-March, April to June. 4. Yield Data: Average mill-area sugar yields for ten mills with negligible irrigation were hsed for the period For North Eton and Isis, dryland yield data were available for the past few years when irrigation has had significant effect on mill averages. The mills listed in Table I1 cover a wide range of rainfall regimes from 142 inches per year at Innisfail to 43 inches at Childers. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine yields as a function of six factors: water use for the four periods September to June, total surplus and time. Results Average yields, coefficients of variation and yield trends with time, obtained from the regression analysis, are listed in Table 11. All mill areas with the exception cf Isis showed significant upward trends in yields over the period analysed. The mean surplus figures for the September to June period are listed in Table 11. Surplus in July-August is negligible and the figures can be taken as annual surplus. The data show surplus increasing, as rainfall and the summer concentration of rainfall increase. As the surplus proportion of rainfall increases, the water use proportion declines. From the coefficient of variation figures in Table 11, it is apparent that the relative variation in yields is greatest at Isis and at North Eton.

5 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 6 1 Assuming that climatic factors, especially rainfall deficiencies, are the major factor affecting yields, then irrigation could be expected to be of most importance in areas with high yield variation. Water use coefficients from the regression analysis are listed in Table 111. Significant responses were generally obtained only in the lower rainfall and higher yield variation areas. Rocky Point is an exception and this is probably related to water table effects. It is emphasized that the results relate water use over the growing season to final yield and are not a measure of actual sugar accumulation per inch in each period. The R* (CoeBcient of Determination) values in Table I11 are all significant at the one per cent level. For North Eton with the highest R2 value of 0.84, the standard error of yield estimates is 0.41 and thus the analysis in its present form is not particularly useful for yield prediction. A more precise weekly water use model would be useful for yield prediction. During the December to March period when the yield response is at a maximum, the higher rainfall areas have relatively small variations in water use and the analysis is not able to determine the effect. At Racecourse and Plane Creek, water use has significant effects on yield in the February to March period. In other periods, variations in water use have not had a measurable effect on yields. There is no obvious explanation for the negative effect of water use on yield for Moreton from September to November. Rainfall from September to'november at Nambour is higher than for any other sugarcane area in Queensland and the effect could be related to delays in harvesting the previous year's crop. A similar effect has been demonstrated at Babinda (Leverington, 1969). Rainfall surplus has had a negative effect on yields at Goondi and North Eton. For average surpluses of 89 inches and 21 inches respectively, the average reductions in yield are 0.56 tons at Goondi and 0.39 tons at North Eton. The relative importance of a regression coefficient in terms of effects on yields depends on the variation of water use for each period. Standard partial regression coefficients, which show the relative importance of the factors, have been calculated for the centres having more than one significant water use coefficient. The values are listed in Table IV. To test the sensitivity of the regression coefficients to varying potential E rates, rates appraximately 15 per cent higher and lower were tested for North Eton. The general effect was to decrease the coefficients for higher E rates and vice versa. The effect was only TABLE Ill--Significant regression coefficients-tons of sugar per inch Note: (I) For all significant factors including time trend if applicable. (2) Significant at 10% level.

6 62 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 1970 major for the February-March period when, for the lower rate, the response increased to 0.24 tons per inch and, for the higher rate, the figure was 0.16 compared to at the adopted E rates. There were no differences in statistical fit for the three models. The changes in the coefficients are as would be expected when the ceiling effect of potential E is considered. The regression coefficients for North Eton, Maryborough and Isis are shown graphically in Figure 1. A large increase in water use efficiency, i.e. tons of sugar per inch water use, is apparent in February and March for North Eton and Maryborough (standard errors for all regression coefficients used in Figure 1 are in the vicinity of 0.3). A reason for the early peak for Isis is not apparent as Isis and Maryborough have a similar climate. The major soil difference is the steeper slopes and soil erosion at Isis. For North Eton and Maryborough, the peak in water use efficiency occurs later than the mid-summer peak in temperature and radiation and coincides with the rainfall peak. As crop height increases, the contribution of advected energy could be expected to increase and maximum energy receipts may occur later than indicated by unit area data. The water use efficiency curve is of similar shape to the "f' factor curve. However, it is not caused by the "f' factors adopted in the study. With constant "P' factors over the growing season, the peak in the water use efficiency curve would be more exaggerated. Bieske (1968), using weekly water use models in the Bundaberg area, has generally confirmed a much greater response to water use in the January to June period compared to July to December. Calculations from data published by Ham (1969) for the Burdekin lysimeter show a similar peak to the above in term of actual cane growth rates over the growing season. On the basis of 0.1 ton of final yield of sugar per inch stalk length, the response increased from 0.1 tons in October to 0.2 tons in December declining to 0.08 tons in June. The earlier peak could be associated with more rapid early growth rates compared to field conditions as sugar yields were the equivalent of over 10 tons per acre. It is postulated that the water use efficiency curve over the cane growing season varies with the temperature and radiation environment. For example, the difference between North Eton and Maryborough in Figure 1 could be related to slightly higher temperatures and radiation at North Eton. Response to Irrigation It has traditionally been assumed that most crops have a unique water requirement to produce a maximum yield. However, crop responses to water at different stages of growth vary and in terms of final yield, the time of application is as important as quantity applied. Lysimeter experiments have shown that the maximum yield is not a TABLE IV-Standard partial regression coefficients-tons of sugar per inch

7 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE precise figure. When unlimited water is available to a crop, the maximum yield is then determined by temperature and radiation factors assuming fertility adjustments. Ham (1969) states that yield responses of 1.0 to 1.1 ton of cane per inch have been consistently achieved in Natal, Hawaii and Bundaberg. The Burdekin lysimeter response in was 1.21 tons of cane per inch. These responses are equivalent to about 0.15 tons of sugar per inch. The weighted average responses recorded in Figure 1 vary from 0.10 to 0.13 tons of sugar per inch. Irrigation experiments with sugar cane have generally had irrigation scheduled at fixed percentages of evaporation, or at fixed moisture stress levels, so that differential responses over the growing season have not been apparent. However, Yates (1967) concluded that cane should be irrigated at 33 per cent of cane E (lysimeter values) until the cane reaches 5 ft to the top of the canopy. Thereafter, maximum growth was at 100 per cent of cane E. In areas of Queensland where sugar cane is irrigated, underground water supplies are generally at full or over development and quantities available for irrigation are generally limited. Also, the introduction of community irrigation schemes will result in a fixed allocation. Under these conditions, to maximize returns, consideration must be given to the time of application of irrigation. Figure 1 indicates that greater responses are possible by largely restricting irrigation to the January to April period. This assumes average conditions in preceding months. Obviously, the crop has to be advanced to a sufficient stage to utilize irrigation efficiently after January and, in some areas, spring irrigation may be required to guarantee ratooning. A qualifying factor to irrigation during the December to April period is the greater probability of rain in excess of E requirements over this period. Generally, as rainfall increases, rainfall surplus to E increases. For example, at Maryborough where annual rainfall is 46 inches, the monthly water use study gave a mean surplus of 10 inches com ared to a surplus of 21 inches at North Eton where the annual rain P all is 53 inches. Part of this difference is due to the higher summer proportion at North Eton. However, it is obvious that irrigation at North Eton will increase water use less than at Bundaberg. Also, for a given location, the response to a fixed irrigation application will be greater in a dry year compared to a wet year. 02 & = G; I g! 0, C i I" 00 Sbpt W NW Dtc Jan F& March April May Jw. MONTH Fig. I--Water use efficiency over the sugar cane growing season.

8 64 THIRTY-SEVENTH CONFERENCE 1970 At North Eton in January, rainfall is less than 4.5 inches in 30 per cent of years compared to the estimated E requirement of 8 inches. Thus, in many years, the potential response to irrigation at 0.15 tons per inch is high. However, the median rainfall is 8.8 inches and there is thus a high probability of rainfall in excess of E requirements. The proportion of irrigation applied, manifested as water use, must inevitably decline as amounts of irrigation increase and total water use approaches potential E. Irrigation is thus subject to decreasing returns. Flinn and Musgrave (1967) have developed a dynamic model for the analysis of the input-output relations of irrigation water based on productivity related to time of application. This model could be developed using a refined weekly water use model to derive the economic optimum irrigation policy for a given rainfall regime and irrigation application. An additional factor that could be allowed for is the decline in marginal revenue when farm production peaks are exceeded. An analysis on the above lines could result in considerable water economies in areas such as the Burdekin and Bundaberg where the underground water situation is critical. Acknowledgments The co-operation of the Bureau of Meteorology, the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations and the Cane Prices Board in supplying climatic and production data is acknowledged. REFERENCES Anon, (1964). Report of the David North Plant Research Centre. The Colonial Sugar Refining Company Limited. Bieske, G. C. (1967). Response to irrigation at Fairymead. Proc. Qd. Soc. Sug. Cane Technol., thirty-fourth Conf., Bieske, G. C. (1968). ~r'lvate communication, Fairymead, Bundagerg. Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (1956). Climatic Averages, Australia. Melbourne. Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (1964). Australia, Average Monthly Total Radiation. Melbourne. Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (1966). Australia, Average Evaporation in Inches (Australian Sunken Tank). Melbourne. Fitzpatrick, E. A. (1965). Climate in Relation to Pasture and Crop Growth, Part 11, Fitzroy Region, Queensland. Resources Series, Department of National Development, Canberra. Flinn, J. C. and Musgave, W. F. (1967). Development and analysis of input-output relation for irrigation water. Aust. J. Ag. Econ., 11, Ham, G. J. (1969). Water requirements of sugar cane. Water problems in tropical Queensland, Water Research Foundation of Australia, Symposium, Townsville, August Leverington, K. C. (1969). Division of Soils and Agronomy. 69th Annual Report of the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations, Brisbane. Penman, H. L. (1963). Vegetation and hydrology, -. Tech. Comm. No. 53. Commonwealth Bureau of Soils, C.A.B. Wang, J. Y. (1963). Agricultural Meteorology. Pacemaker Press, Wisconsin. White, B. J. (1969). Water use, response to irrigation and increased vroduction from the scheme. Appendix D, water conserqation, underground -water supplies and irrigation-bundaberg region. Department of Primary Industries, Irrigation and Water Supply Commission, Queensland. Yates, R. A. (1964). Evapotranspiration of sugar cane in southern Queensland related to grass evapotranspiration, water evaporation and meteorological data. Proc. Qd. Sug. Cane Technol., thirty-first Conf., Yates, R. A. (1967). Studies on the irrigation of sugar cane. Aust. J. Agric. Res., 18,

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