Veal Price Forecast. October 2015
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1 Veal Price Forecast October 2015
2 VEAL PRICE FORECAST OCTOBER 2015 Veal Light Production Veal prices in 2015 have been stronger than anticipated and are expected to continue to show year-over-year increases through the remainder of the year. A large portion of boxed veal cuts are still trading at or near record high price levels. The seasonal market trend of strengthening prices is expected to continue but not as profound as past years.. Large year-over-year price increases of nearly 16% are still expected. These increases are likely to dwindle in the fourth quarter. Veal production is currently down about 16% relative to the same time period last year. Competing proteins (pork and poultry) are still priced more attractively than beef and veal. An increase in the beef and dairy cow herds and ultimately more calves in fall/winter 2015 and into 2016 will help to alleviate some of the tight supplies of calves available to veal producers as feedlots will have a larger supply of beef type calves to choose from. The recent correction in the beef calf market should also help to alleviate some of the pull on dairy type calves. Lower corn prices have motivated much of the slaughter decline as competition for Holstein calves has increased. However, sustained feedyard losses will likely result in increased availability of calves for slaughter heading into 2016, pressuring veal calf prices. Carcass weights are expected to be 8-10% heavier this year in order to help maintain production as slaughter numbers remain tight. In past years, producers have increased carcass weights in order to meet production goals and that looks like it will hold true in 2015 as carcass weights are currently showing year-to-date increases of 22 pounds, or 13%, so far in Expect carcass weights to decrease into the fall and be similar to slightly heavier than year ago levels for the remainder of Demand was better than expected in the third quarter as a slowdown in inflation through the first three quarters of 2015, where demand should have seasonally weakened, helped to prop up demand levels. Demand will likely remain above year ago levels through the remainder of the year. Bottom Line: Supplies of veal will likely be a little more readily available in the fourth quarter. Demand should remain above year ago levels through the end of the year. Veal prices will likely remain at or near record high price levels for most of the boxed cuts as we approach the end of Year Seasonal Index While demand somewhat surprised through the first half of the year, demand is expected to flatten out. A slowdown in inflation through the first three quarters helped prop up demand levels. Demand should remain above year earlier levels. Demographics continue to favor the industry, now it just has to capture it. Pounds Wholesale U.S. Veal Demand Index USDA Dressed Weights, Cattle Yr P Source: USDA, BLS, CattleFax Source: Urner Barry, USDA Cattle weights climbed swiftly through the latest quarter. Cheap feed incentivited the industry to keep them in feedlots longer. Weights have increased faster than 2014 and now sit 24 pounds above last year. This helps producers try to hit production goals as slaughter still remains much lower than previous years Demand (1998=100) The publishers disclaim and do not assume responsibility for any damages, alleged or otherwise, that may result or claim to have resulted from any use made by any person or any reliance made by any person upon any of the statements of quotations appearing at any time herein. Market Insight for the Meat and Poultry Industry P.O. Box 312, Bayville, NJ Market Data, Analysis and Forecasts by: Published by: While the data contained in this report is gathered from reliable sources, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The publisher does not give investment advice or act as an investment advisor. All data, information, and opinions are subject to change without notice. This publication is protected by U.S. copyright laws.
3 Market Insight for the Meat and Poultry Industry Released OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 2 USDA Federally Inspected Production, Veal (yearly) Pounds in Millions *2015 Source: Urner Barry, USDA (2015 = Projection) As prices corrected in the beef calf market, some of the pull on dairy type calves was alleviated. This is not to say that the tight supply trends have reversed but it looks to be getting better into next year. Producers continue to use cheap feed as incentive to increase weights, which are expected to be 8 to 10% heavier this year. This has helped minimize the decline in production which is still expected to be down 12 to 13% for the year. USDA Federally Inspected Slaughter, Calves(Weekly) 19 Head in Thousands Source: USDA As the beef industry continues to pull available supplies in order to rebuild the herds, the fundamentals set in place remain. Tight supplies of calves keep slaughter levels below last year and previous years. The industry saw a narrowing slightly compared to 2014 in the recent quarter, with year-to-date figures 26 percent lower, compared to the 28 percent lower in the last report.
4 Market Insight for the Meat and Poultry Industry Released OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 3 Retail and Foodservice Sales, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Restaurant Performance Index 450, , , Dollars 432, RPI 426, ,000 Retail and Foodservice Sales Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) Source: Urner Barry, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, National Restaurant Association The restaurant performance index fell to its lowest level in 11 months in August behind softer sales and lower customer traffic. Despite weakness, August was the 30th consecutive month in which the RPI signified expansion. Gross sales continued to trend higher as food inflation continued to outpace core numbers. CPI-U 12 Month Change All Items Food at Home Meat, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs Food Away from Home DPI & PCE Monthly Percent Change Disposable Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Percentage Percentage Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Source: Urner Barry, BLS Source: Urner Barry, BLS Core inflation remained tame, outpaced by measures in the food industry. There was some relief as beef, pork, chicken, and egg prices all moved lower in the quarter. Restaurants were slow to pass on the savings. The majority of consumption of veal remains at restaurants so higher prices across the board could help veal producers as buyers stop ordering on price and more on want. Wage growth slowed. Job creation has been slow and the lower paying jobs are leading the way. Expenditures continue to climb at a steady pace.
5 Market Insight for the Meat and Poultry Industry Released OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 4 Veal: Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, North East-(LTL) Fourth quarter price levels for veal carcasses are expected to be flat to slightly stronger. Year-over-year monthly increases for the first three quarters of 2015 averaged up 21%. Smaller increases are expected throughout the remainder of Replacement costs are still a key issue participants are keeping a close eye on. Year-todate calf slaughter levels are down over 26% compared to the equivalent time period for Corn and Whey MARKET PRICES AND PROJECTIONS $4.70 $4.26 $3.82 $3.38 $2.94 '10-' P 16P $2.50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec PROJECTED YS Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, North East-(LTL) Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg High Low MONTHLY 5-YR SEASONAL FACTOR 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cents Per Bushel CBOT Corn Continuous Front Month Futures Source: CBOT, Urner Barry Corn prices seem to have found a comfortable base in This should be music to the ears of veal producers as prices have remained at a comfortable level. While use has grown, production levels have increased as well. Barring weather induced issues, expect prices to remain range bound. WHEY (Animal Feed Milk Replacer, Central) 0.60 Dollars Per Pound Source: USDA, Urner Barry WHEY (F.O.B Extra Grade 34% Protein) 1.80 Dollars Per Pound Source: USDA, Urner Barry Whey prices continued to decline. Softer demand, especially from China, have continued to limit exports and pressure prices. New yearly lows were hit in the most recent quarter.
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