Agri-Commodities Daily Report

Transcription

1 Content News in Brief Sugar Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Cotton Agri-Commodity Heat Chart Technical Trend 30-Dec-2016 As on 29-Dec-2016 Commodity Exchange Contract Trend Commodities Prev. Day W/W M/M Y/Y Cardamom- MCX CPO - MCX Kapas Guar seed Ref Soy Oil Maize Coriander Turmeric GuarGum Jeera Mentha-MCX Mustard Soybean Sugar Cotton-MCX Spice Complex Jeera NCDEX Jan Up Turmeric NCDEX Apr Sideways Coriander NCDEX Jan Sideways Cardamom MCX Jan Sideways Edible Oil Complex Soybean NCDEX Jan Sideways Mustard Seed NCDEX Jan Sideways Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Jan Up CPO MCX Jan Up Others Sugar NCDEX Mar Up Kapas NCDEX Apr 17 Up Cotton MCX Jan Sideways Cotton Oilseed Cake NCDEX Jan Sideways Wheat NCDEX Jan Down MaizeKhrf NCDEX Jan Down Barley NCDEX Jan Sideways Mentha Oil MCX Jan Sideways Guar Gum5 NCDEX Jan Up Guar Seed 10 NCDEX Jan Up

2 News in brief With exports in check, sugar import duty may not be pruned for now The Central government doesn t have immediate plans to lower import duties on sugar as it did with wheat. The export duty imposed in June this year has managed to contain exports and ensure adequate availability of the sweetener in the domestic market for the present, a government official said. However, if a subsequent review in production number shows a lower output than the estimated million tonnes (mt) and there is a spike in the domestic prices which have been slightly hardening, the Centre could re-consider its options. With import duty on sugar fixed at 40 per cent, there are no imports taking place. The idea behind imposing the export duty of 20 per cent in June this year was that if we don t have any exports then we may be able to manage without imports. Right now there is no pressing need to encourage imports as with production estimated at mt in the sugar season (beginning October), the shortfall of 2-3 mt could be made good by the carryover stock if exports don t happen, the official said. (Source: HBL) Centre-South Brazil Dec 1-15 sugar output 362,000 tn, down 44% YoY Mills in the Centre-South region of Brazil produced 362,000 tn of sugar in the first fortnight of December, down 43.9% compared to the year-ago period, according to the country's sugarcane industry association, known by its Portuguese acronym UNICA. The fall in production was because fewer mills are operational now compared to last year. Typically, cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil is wrapped up by October. Mills in the region, which account for more than 90% of Brazil's overall sugar output, crushed 7.15 mln tn of sugarcane during Dec 1-15, down 60.3% on year, UNICA said in a report. (Source: Cogencis) Sugar prices may remain firm in first quarter of 2017 Sugar prices are likely to stay firm in the first quarter of 2017, say traders and companies, as cost of production increases in Uttar Pradesh and mills in Maharashtra plan to shut early. At Kolhapur in Maharashtra's sugar belt, the sweetener is quoting Rs a kg, depending on quality. Taking a cue from lower cane crop and the possibility of a fall in sugar production, the NCDEX March sugar prices traded 0.16 per cent higher at Rs 3,730 a quintal on Wednesday with open interest of 5,020 lots. "The cost of production in Uttar Pradesh has gone up by 10 per cent owing to the government increasing the state advisory price (for cane). Hence sugar prices ahead would follow bit of the cost rise by 3-4 per cent which should be acceptable to all concerned," said Vivek Saraogi, managing director of Balrampur Chini. (Source : ET) Domestic edible oil production set to rise by 1.5 million tonnes Even as the sowing of kharif oilseeds has increased over last year, the trade is expecting higher oilseed availability, resulting in a rise in domestic edible oil production, but with no impact on imports. As per the latest data shared by the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), India s overall kharif oilseeds production is projected at lakh tonnes (lt) for against 126 lt last year. Edible oil production is estimated at 7.28 million tonnes (mt) for the oil year (November-October) against 5.80 mt last year. The increase in oilseeds output is attributed to the higher yield of 936 kg per hectare as against 680 kg/ha. There will be ample availability of edible oils as we expect about million tonnes of extra oil production this year. However, this will not compensate imports, so the imports are likely to remain more or less at the same level, said BV Mehta, Executive Director, SEA. (Source: HBL) SEA sees India '16-17 kharif oilseed output 17.8 mln tn, up 41% YoY Oilseed output in the country in (Jul-Jun) kharif season has been pegged at 17.8 mln tn, up 41% on year, largely due to a rise in yield, Solvent Extractors' Association of India today said in a release. Total oilseed output was estimated at 12.6 mln tn in the year-ago period. "Timely southwest rains and favourable weather conditions improved overall output of kharif oilseeds in the country," SEA Executive Director B.V. Mehta said. Production of soybean has been estimated at 10.6 mln tn, up from 7.2 mln tn a year ago, the release said. Soybean accounts for nearly 60% of the kharif oilseed basket. Even though the acreage under soybean was lower this year, the output is likely to rise due to higher yields, Mehta said. The association today released the estimates after undertaking primary and secondary surveys on the kharif oilseed crops. (Source: Cogencis) New turmeric crop arrives in Nizamabad, supply at bags a day The new turmeric crop has started arriving in the spot market of Nizamabad in Telangana this week, with an average of bags (1 bag = 70 kg) coming into the market per day, traders said. The fresh arrivals are coming from the Armoor town in the Nizamabad district, they said. The new harvest is of "relatively poor quality" as compared to the fair average quality turmeric traded on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, they said. "Currently turmeric arrivals are of the Pratibha seed variety, which is a six-month crop and contains 15-20% moisture level," an official at Nizamabad Agriculture Produce Market Committee said. (Source: Cogencis) Maharashtra sugar output seen 5 mln tn, unch vs Oct estimate The Maharashtra cane department has estimated the state's sugar output for (Oct-Sep) at 5 mln tn, unchanged from its October forecast. The output estimate is lower than the Indian Sugar Mills Association's estimate of 6.3 mln tn and also less than 8.4 mln tn produced a year ago. "In a review meeting chaired by Cane Commissioner Vipin Sharma, and attended by millers and officials of agriculture department, it was unanimously agreed upon that sugar output in the state would be 5 mln tn," an official who attended the meeting said. The decline is output is because of lower availability of cane in the state due to two back-to-back years of drought. In , the state produced mln tn of sugarcane, sharply lower than 93 mln tn produced last year, according to Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Federation. (Source: Cogencis) Weak exports, high cotton prices may hit spinners profitability ICRA expects the weak export demand and high cotton prices to hurt the profitability of domestic cotton spinners. While the commencement of the cotton harvest season has been accompanied by a softening of the domestic price, however, it remains 17% higher year-on-year, says an ICRA report. According to the agency, the firmness in cotton prices is driven by a hangover of cotton shortage in India earlier in the year, slower cotton arrivals amid the demonetisation drive and uncertainty related to the extent of improvement in domestic crop-size against a backdrop of superior yields but lower sown area. Besides, weakness in export demand poses challenges for the domestic spinning industry. Cotton yarn exports have been under pressure due to lower demand from China amid improved local mill usage, the report states. (Source: FE) Global Cotton Stocks Decline Further in 2016/17 World cotton stocks are forecast to decline 8 percent (7.7 million bales) in 2016/17 to 89.1 million bales, the lowest in 5 years (fig. 4). Despite the considerable decrease from 2014/15 s peak of million bales, global ending stocks remain at relatively high levels as excess supplies that have been stored in China s national reserve are reduced. In 2016/17, China s total ending stocks are projected at 47.8 million bales, compared with 66.9 million bales just 2 years ago, or an estimated 54 percent of global stocks at season s end. China has announced that reserve sales would begin again in March 2017 in an effort to reduce the excess supplies further. (Source: USDA)

3 Sugar Sugar Futures closed lower for the first time this week on profit booking form higher levels. The prices were higher this week as output for the next season is expected to be lower than the consumption demand. Moreover, firm mill tender rates also indicate a renewed demand from the stockists and bulk buyers. The most-active March sugar contract closed 0.21% higher to settle at 3,732 per quintal. As per the exchange circular, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has cut special cash margin on buy positions on all running and yet-to-be-launched sugar contracts, effective from Tuesday, 27- Dec-16. Special Cash Margin on Long side shall be reduced by 40% from existing 65% to 25%. The country is likely to produce 23.4 mt sugar in 2016/17, down about 7% from a year earlier as back-to-back droughts ravaged cane crops in the top producing western state of Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, according to ISMA press release on 16-Dec-16, sugar production in India has increased by 11.2% this season compared to corresponding period las year. Indian sugar mills produced 53.3 lakh tonne of sugar between Oct. 1 and Dec 15 Vs 47.9 lt. Output in Maharashtra, the top sugar-producing state, was 17.3 lt as on 15-Dec-16, down from 22.5 lt a year ago while Uttar Pradesh produced 17.7 lt of sugar this season compared to 8.52 lt a year ago. Market Highlights - Sugar Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY Sugar Spot /qtl Sugar M- NCDEX /qtl Mar 17 ICE-Europe Sugar No $/tonne Mar 17 ICE-US Sugar No 11- Mar 17 Usc/lbs Chart Sugar M Daily NSMH7 Cndl, NSMH7, , 3,730.00, 3,735.00, 3,705.00, 3,720.00, NCDEX Mar 17 contract (BOM) 3, ,700 3,600 3,500 Global Updates Raw sugar futures on ICE Futures U.S. extended a post-christmas rebound on Thursday, climbing to the highest level in more than two weeks on growing expectations that India's crop may be smaller than expected. Sugar got a further boost on signs that production in top grower Brazil continues to wind down. Brazil's main center-south cane belt produced 362,000 tonnes of sugar in the first half of December compared with 1.13 million tonnes in the previous two-week period, according to data from industry group Unica on Thursday. According to the latest CFTC data (20th Dec. 2016), managed money has trimmed their long position for the second consecutive week by 13,111 contracts to 146,709 contracts. As per, the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into balance in , ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low level" in the current season. We expect sugar prices to trade sideways to higher on good physical demand as stockists are active in buying sugar in anticipation of lower supplies in next year. The production is higher till mid-december, however an anticipation of cane scarcity in Maharashtra but production in UP is going to be good this season. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Sugar NCDEX Mar 17 /qtl

4 Soybean Soybean futures closed lower on thin trading day on Thursday. The prices have recently improved as market participants expected good demand for soybean crushing in coming weeks after tracking higher spot prices. The most-active Jan 17 delivery contract closed 0.30% down to settle at Rs. 3,024 per quintal. There is expectation of good demand from the oil mills. For India, USDA estimates 2016/17 soybean production 1.8 mt higher this month to 11.5 mt based on reports of better than expected yields. As a consequence, Indian soybean meal exports in 2016/17 could recover to 1.8 mt. Global update CBOT soybean soybeans declined on Thursday due to improving crop prospects in South America. January is a key month for South American soybean crop development. Rain forecast may ease worries about dry conditions in soy regions in South America. Export demand too support prices as USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.7 mt, toward the high end of trade expectations for 1.4 mt to 1.8 tonnes. Money managers were less bullish on soybeans because of the weather in South America, pushing net longs down to 111,993 contracts, down from 121,859 the prior week according to CFTC data released last week. We expect Soybean prices to trade sideways as supplies will increase as prices have improved and there is good crushing demand from the mills. Soybean prices may trade in a tight range during the peak arrival season in December and January. Rape/mustard Seed Mustard seed futures closed lower on Thursday as market is looking for fresh demand when the sowing and weather condition is very beneficial for a good crop. Good physical demand has supported the prices in spot market recently. The Jan 17 contract ended about 0.07% higher to settle at Rs. 4,309/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, Country s mustard acreage in the ongoing rabi season touched 68.2 lakh hectares (lh) as on Dec 23 up 13.5% from a year ago. Rajasthan, the top mustard producing state, planted 27.6 lakh ha, up 16% from a year ago similarly acreage under mustard increase in Uttar Pradesh at lh Vs 11.9 lh last year. In MP, mustard is sown in 6.84 lh Vs 6.2 lh last year same time. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. We expect mustard seed to trade sideways on expectation of lower level buying by the market participants. Good start to rabi sowing in Rajasthan and Gujarat is weighing on prices since last month. Technical Levels Market Highlights - Oilseeds Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY Soybean Spot- NCDEX /qtl Soybean- NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl Soybean-CBOT Mar 17 USc/Bsh RM Seed Spot- NCDEX /qtl RM Seed- NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl Chart Soybean Daily NSBF7 Cndl, NSBF7, , 3,024.00, 3,036.00, 3,013.00, 3, Chart Mustard (BOM) Daily NRSF7 Cndl, NRSF7, , 4,305.00, 4,313.00, 4,271.00, 4,301.00, 3,200 3,100 3, , (BOM) 4,600 4,400 4, ,200 Contract Unit Support Resistance Soybean NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl RM Seed NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl

5 Refined Soy Oil Refined soy oil futures closed higher on Thursday due to lower level buying by the market participants on anticipation of good physical demand. The most active Ref Soy oil Jan 17 expiry contract closed 0.36% higher to settle at Rs /10kg. The increase in tariff values is supporting the prices recently. The tariff value of crude soyoil was raised by $42 per tn to $912 which was the sixth increase in three month by the government. The tariff value of soy oil has been increase by about 21.3% since mid july. Despite increase in tariff prices, the record oilseed production in country is weighing on the soy oil prices. As per SEA data, India import of soybean oil declined to 1,64,286 tonnes in Nov from 2,56,836 tonnes in the year-ago period while, India s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-Oct). Soy oil futures may trade sideways to higher as the soybean prices in the country started to improve from lower levels which encourages crushing by the local oil mills. Increase tariff values may also support prices. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) CPO Futures continue to trade higher this week on increasing demand from the stockists as country is returning to normalcy after the demonetization. The most active CPO Dec 16 expiry closed 0.59% higher to settle at Rs per 10 kg. On 15-Dec-16, the tariff value of CPO increase by $16 to $780/tonne for the 2nd half of Dec compared to previous fortnight. This is fourth straight increase but still lower than the September tariff price. In domestic market, the prices are following the international market as country is depending on the imports. As per SEA data, Palm oil imports fell by 8.27% to 8,01,311 tonnes in Nov this year, on expected bumper oilseeds crop and better domestic edible oils supply. As per USDA, the imports in 2016/17 will be higher by 14% to 10 mt and consumption too increases by 11% in India. Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Thursday, dipping after two sessions of gains on year-end profit-taking and in line with declines in rival soyoil. Malaysian palm oil shipments showed that falls in exports were slowing. Exports fell 5-7% in the Dec period from the previous month, compared with a % fall during Dec. Chinese are gearing up their purchases ahead of the lunar New Year celebrations at the end of January. Market Highlights- Edible oils Ref Soyoil Spot - Mumbai Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Jan 17 Soybean Oil- CBOT- Jan 17 CPO-Bursa Malaysia - Mar 17 CPO- MCX Jan 16 Chart Ref Soy Oil Chart Crude Palm Oil Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY /10 kg /10 kg USc/lb MYR/Tn /10 kg Daily NSOF (BOM) Cndl, NSOF7, , , , , , 10B MCX Dec 16 contract Daily MCAZ (BOM) Cndl, MCAZ6, , , , , , +3.40, (+0.59%) B We expect CPO continue to trade higher today due to expectation of good physical demand of edible oil in the country. Moreover, increase in tariff prices and firm international may also support prices in the domestic market. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl CPO MCX Jan 17 /qtl

6 Spices Jeera Jeera futures closed higher for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday tracking good demand in the physical market. The demand for exports has supported the jeera prices but recently the good sowing progress is weighing on prices. NCDEX Jan 17 Jeera closed 0.26% higher to settle at Rs 17,565 per quintal. The progress of Jeera sowing in Gujarat is now at par with the last year acreage. As on 26-Dec-16, Gujarat farmers have planted jeera in 2,67,100 hectares, down by 1200 hectares compared to last year acreage of 2,68,300 hectares same period. As per traders, India's jeera exports are likely to rise 30% to 88,000 tonnes in Apr-Dec, because of robust demand from overseas market and negligible stocks in other exporting nations The stock position in NCDEX warehouse as on 27-Dec-2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is totaled at 72 tonnes while it was 209 tonnes last week. Last year stocks were about 2,560 tonnes. We expect Jeera futures to trade higher as physical demand from the stockists and traders improve as the supplies are limited due to offseason. However, the reports good sowing progress and lower demand at higher levels may be negative for the prices. Turmeric Turmeric futures closed higher as prices is consolidating near current levels as market is waiting for the new season crop. Turmeric Jan 17 delivery contract on NCDEX closed lower by 0.32% higher to settle at Rs 6,804 per quintal. The stock positions of Turmeric in the Exchange warehouses in the current season are only stock at Sangali (1142 tonnes as on 25-Dec-16) while last year the stocks were stored in Duggirala, Erode and Nizamabad too and recorded about 4446 tonnes. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-September period, up by 27% to 58,233 tonnes compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year. Market Highlights - Spices Unit Last Prev WoW MoM YoY Jeera Spot- NCDEX /qt Jeera- NCDEX Jan 17 /qt Turmeric Spot- NCDEX /qt Turmeric- NCDEX Apr 17 /qt Technical Chart Jeera Daily NJEF7 Chart Turmeric (BOM) Cndl, NJEF7, , 17,550.00, 17,690.00, 17,455.00, 17,565.00, Daily NTMJ7 Cndl, NTMJ7, , 6,770.00, 6,820.00, 6,750.00, 6,804.00, 18,000 17, ,500 17,000 16, (BOM) ,200 7,000 6, ,800 6,600 We expect turmeric to trade sideways as new season turmeric is hitting the physical market. Moreover, the traders are expecting good production as recent rains have not affected the standing crop. Good upcountry demand for the new season crop may support prices. Technical Unit Support Resistance Jeera NCDEX Jan 17 /qtl Turmeric NCDEX Apr 17 /qtl

7 Kapas Cotton complex traded mixed on Thursday on reports that the cotton corporation goes for purchase of the cotton to ensure supplies for the textile mills during the off-season. s of Kapas surged yesterday on good demand expectation but cotton prices on MCX decline due to profit booking. Moreover, there is an anticipation of good demand in physical market as the arrivals have not touched its peak in the current season. The CCI is expected to purchase around 15 lakh bales for the season of 2016/17. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country is expected to have reached about 21% for total expected arrivals of 350 lakh bales at 75 lakh bales (lb) as on 20Dec, The market is expected arrival of about 75 % of the cotton during December to March and around Rs 60,000 crore is required to procure the seed cotton during this period. During this period, the large traders and multinational cotton traders taking advantage of hedging facility and cheaper funds to procure cotton and then release on higher prices to mills. As per latest release by CAI, the total supplies of cotton in the domestic market during 2016/17 will be lower at 408 lakh bales compared to last year supplies of 427 lakh bales due less carry over stock and imports. Global Cotton Updates ICE cotton futures jumped over 1 percent on Thursday, hitting a twoweek high, supported by a weaker dollar and short-covering by investors ahead of the last trading session of the year. CFTC data showed that in the week to Dec. 20, speculators trim their bullish position in cotton contracts for the second straight week, reducing 7,179 contracts in their net long position, taking it to 76,039 contracts. As per USDA latest report, the global 2016/17 forecasts show higher production (22.7 mt Vs 22.5 mt)and increased ending stocks (19.4 mt Vs 19.2 mt) compared with last month. Production is raised for Australia(0.87 mt Vs 0.98 mt), the US (3.6 mt Vs 3.6 mt), and others (3.65mt Vs 3.63 mt). Consumption is reduced for India, the United States, and South Korea, and raised for China and Vietnam. Market Highlights- Cotton Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY NCDEX Kapas Apr kgs MCX Cotton Dec 16 /Bale ICE Cotton Mar 17 USc/Lbs Cotton ZCE Yuan/t Chart Kapas-NCDEX Chart Cotton- MCX NCDEX Apr 17 contract Daily NKKJ (BOM) Cndl, NKKJ7, , , , , , B Daily MCOTZ6 Cndl, MCOTZ6, , 19,150.00, 19,200.00, 18,930.00, 18,980.00, , (-1.15%) MCX Dec 16 contract (BOM) 19,200 18, ,900 18,600 18,300 We expect cotton futures to trade sideways to higher as arrivals in the physical market did not reached its peak as the demand for new season crop increasing. The prices may also get supported by the news of purchase by the CCI. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Kapas NCDEX April 17 /20 kgs Cotton MCX Jan 16 /bale

8 Prepared By Anuj Gupta Head Technical Research (Commodity & Currency) (011) Ritesh Kumar Sahu Research Analyst Agri-Commodities (022) (Ext 6165) Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Tel: (022) MCX Member ID: / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com