STATE, IMPROVEMENTS AND CHALLANGES OF AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY IN HUNGARY

Transcription

1 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT STATE, IMPROVEMENTS AND CHALLANGES OF AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY IN HUNGARY Katalin Lovas Hungarian Meteorological Service Greenhouse Gas Division Alapítva: 1870

2 Reasons for making GHG inventories Hungary as an European Union Member State Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol has an obligation to fulfill an internationally binding emission reduction target. To demonstrate compliance with the Protocol's commitments the country is obligated to prepare annual national GHG inventories covering anthropogenic emissions and removals. Since the end of 2006 the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) has been responsible for the compilation of the National GHG Inventory.

3 General information about GHG inventories The IPCC Guidelines provide the internationally standardized methodologies. Guidelines give estimation methods at three levels of detail, from Tier 1 (the default method) to Tier 3 (the most detailed). General rule of emission estimation: Emission = Activity Data (AD) Emission Factor (EF) AD: data on the magnitude of the human activity EF: a coefficient that quantifies the emissions per activity data Inventory period: From the Base Year to t-2 years Base Year = average of for Hungary Inventories are made based on input data from numerous data providers, companies and research institutes. The key data source for the Agriculture sector is the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO).

4 Reported activities and gases Inventory reports contain GHG emissions for six sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes, Solvent and Other Product Use, Agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Waste. The six sectors cover the anthropogenic emissions from CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and emissions of F-gases. The Agriculture sector covers the agricultural CH 4 and N 2 O emissions, while Cropland and Grassland sub-sectors of the LULUCF sector includes the agricultural CO 2 emissions and removals. CO 2 emissions from energy consumption of agricultural activities (heat production, agricultural vehicles and machinery) are reported under the Energy sector.

5 Activities reported under the Agriculture CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock; CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from manure management; N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils; CH 4 emissions from rice cultivation (negligible); CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from field burning of agricultural residues (in Hungary has been banned since 1990). Source: IPCC, 2006

6 Main features of the Hungarian agriculture Agriculture contributed to the GDP with 3.2 % in Over half (57 % in 2012) of the total area of the country is agricultural lands, mainly croplands. In Europe Hungary has the second largest proportion of croplands area accounting for 46 % share of the total area of the country in The crop production is dominant. Mainly cereals, maize and wheat are produced. Sunflower-seed has increasing importance. 8 % of agricultural lands are grasslands. In spite of that the livestock density is low in Hungary.

7 Main trends in the agricultural production Agricultural production dropped dramatically in the 1990s as a result of the change of regime: The gross value of agricultural production fell by 20-40%. Crop production decreased by 10-30%. Animal husbandry declined to two-third of it. Source: HCSO Although in 1994 a recovery started in the agriculture, the animal husbandry remained at that low level and has been decreasing steadily since the year of the European Union accession (2004).

8 Agricultural non-co 2 emissions in 2012 Agriculture sector is the second largest contributor to the national gross emissions, contributing 14% to the total. Agriculture is the largest source of the N 2 O emissions. About one-third of the national total CH 4 emissions origin from the Agriculture.

9 Trends in GHG emissions from Agriculture Agricultural emissions decreased by 53% over the period of The bulk of this decline occurred as a result of a drop in N- fertilizer use and animal production agricultural emissions remained relatively constant. The further decline in the emissions over the period reflects the influence of the economic downturn there was an insignificant increase in the emissions due to the increasing N-fertilizer use.

10 Key drivers of agricultural emissions In Hungary 90% of agricultural emissions are determined by the N-fertilizer use, cattle, swine, sheep and poultry livestock. Simplifying the definition of the so called key source category analysis in the inventory preparation, it can be said that these are the key categories of the agricultural emissions. The key category analysis gives the direction of the further improvement. For key source categories the use of higher tier methodologies are required.

11 Improvements A research project had finished in The new results were taken into account in the 2014 submission at first. The main goals of the research project were the development of country-specific values for: Gross energy intake and N-excretion rate for Cattle N-excretion rate for Swine Volatile solid excretion rate for Poultry Nitrogen excretion rates were determined in conjunction with the calculation of gross energy intake. Our research partner: Attila Kovács Head of the Experimental and Research Farm of Józsefmajor of the Szent István University, Gödöllő

12 Improvements Sources of key data: Hungarian Nutrition Codex, 2004: Hungarian standards for the Net Energy requirements for Cattle; Feed database (laboratory measurements of all kind of fodder and forage crops used in Hungary for animal nutrition); Values of digestibility and crude protein content of the feed were taken from this source. Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) Statistics on Feed intakes for Cattle and Swine, Data from the literature and expert judgments to fill the gaps

13 A new opportunity for improvements Parallel compilation of GHG and Air Pollution Inventories Since 2011 the Greenhouse Gas Division of the HMS has also been participated in the preparation of the Air Pollution Emission Inventory under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE/LRTRAP). As a party to the UNECE/LRTRAP Convention Hungary is required to report annually data on emissions of air-pollutants covered in the Convention. The Air Pollution Inventory provides an additional opportunity to cross-check the activity data and emissions with the GHGinventory to ensure the consistency between the two inventories.

14 Relationships between agricultural GHG and air pollution inventories Direct N 2 O missions: directly from the soil or the animal waste management systems. Indirect N 2 O emissions: through volatilization as NH 3, NO x and subsequent redeposition, and through leaching and runoff. The Air Pollution Inventory enable us to calculate N 2 O, NH 3 and NO x emissions consistently. Included in the GHG inventory as direct emission Included in the GHG inventory as indirect emission Included in the Air Pollution inventory Based on EC JRC

15 Challenges New Guidelines for the inventory preparation Beginning 2015 UNFCCC Parties will have to use the 2006 IPCC Guidelines methodologies and reporting formats in inventory preparation. The new Guidelines include new sources and gases as well as updates the methodologies in line with the new scientific results. The new Guidelines contain improved default emission factors or default parameters for many sources.

16 Changes in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines in Agriculture Examples of changes concerning animal husbandry and grasslands 1. A new source of emissions: N 2 O emissions from crop residues now include forage and pasture renewal. (It is only accounted for during periodic renewal.) Data on the area and frequency of pasture renewal is required

17 Changes in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines 2. Updates the methodologies in line with the scientific results a) The new methodology takes into account separately the volatilization, leaching and run-off losses in the calculation of N 2 O emissions from N input from grazing animals manure management Difficulty: there are extremely limited measurement data on leaching and runoff losses from manure management systems. Thus, Parties will face problems in moving to higher tier methods. Measurement data on N leaching losses is required. b) N mineralization associated with loss of soil organic matter 2006 IPCC Guidelines assume that where soil C is lost as a result of land-use or management change, this loss will be accompanied by a simultaneous mineralization of N and conversion to N 2 O.

18 Changes in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines 3. Improved default emission factors or default parameter Manure management More disaggregated Methane Conversion Factors are provided for estimation of CH 4 emissions. Values are presented as a function of average annual temperature with temperature ranges subdivided by 1 C steps. These Tier 1 emission factors are more difficult to implement due to the higher disaggregation of activity data required. Parties may face additional problems due to lack of data on the animal waste management systems, because the 2006 IPCC Guidelines further increase the disaggregation of animal waste management systems.

19 Reporting and accounting of LULUCF activities CO 2 emissions from agricultural sources are reported under the LULUCF sector. LULUCF sector covers anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and removals arising from land-use changes and changes in management practices. There is a difference in the reporting and accounting of LULUCF activities under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Convention: Reporting is based on 6 land-use categories: Forestland, Cropland, Grassland, Wetlands, Settlements, Other Lands and transformation of them into each other. A land based approach is applied. Convention includes all emissions and removals from LULUCF in a Party s total emissions.

20 Reporting and accounting of LULUCF activities Under the Kyoto Protocol: Supplementary information is reported to the information reported under the UNFCCC Mandatory accounting - Human-induced activities that Parties MUST account for (Article 3.3) Deforestation Afforestation/ Reforestation Voluntary accounting - Human-induced activities that Parties CAN account for (Article 3.4) Forest management (Hungary elected) Cropland management Grazing land management Revegetation An activity based approach Reporting Accounting

21 Trend in emissions from LULUCF -4.4 MtCO 2 -eq in 2012 Main land-use changes in Hungary : Abandonment of croplands Afforestation of agricultural areas (mainly croplands) Built-up of agricultural areas LULUCF sector is a net sink of carbon in Hungary. Removals are driven by Forest Land. According to the GHG inventory Grassland category is a source of carbon in Hungary, because of the reduction of improved grasslands. Change in grassland management practices in Hungary

22 Contribution of Grassland to the national gross emissions in Hungary, in 2012 Net removals from LULUCF sector was 7% of the national total gross emissions. Emissions from Grassland was 1% of the national total gross emissions.

23 New challenges in the LULUCF reporting DECISION No 529/2013/EU OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL: For the accounting period beginning on 1 January 2021, and thereafter, EU Member States shall prepare and maintain annual accounts on all emissions and removals resulting from cropland management (CM) and grazing land management (GM) (deadline for first accounting:15 March 2022); In the accounting period Member States shall, provide and submit to the Commission preliminary and non-binding annual estimates of emissions and removals from CM and GM, using IPCC methodologies. From 2016 to 2018, Member States shall report to the Commission by 15 March each year on the systems in place and being developed to estimate emissions and removals from CM and GM. To fulfill this reporting obligation development of spatial databases are indispensable.

24 New research results required to fulfill the new LULUCF reporting obligation The soil is the main source or sink of carbon To report emissions from Cropland and Grazing land management following data is required Soil maps according to the international soil classification systems. Regular, systematic and representative survey on soil organic carbon content on croplands and grazing lands. Research results on the relationships between soil organic carbon content and cropland/ grazing land management practices (development of annual soil carbon stock change factors.)

25 Roles of research results in the inventory preparation 1. To improve the IPCC Guidelines Research results Research results Research results from the World International databases Research results Rev. Guidelines, 1996 GPG, 2000 Guidelines, To implement the IPCC Guidelines at national (and EU) level to fulfill reporting requirements from Hungary Research results Countryspecific data Country-specific emission factors for key sources Hungary s NIR

26 Conclusions I. GHG inventories contain anthropogenic emissions. II. In the LULUCF reporting managed land or direct human induced activities are used as proxies of anthropogenic emissions. III. Arising from GHG reporting obligations there are a continuous need for new research results. IV. Reasons to get new research results and the main topics of the required improvements currently are as follows: 1. arising from key source category analysis, Hungary specific values for gross energy intake and N excretion rate for sheep would be reasonable; 2. arising from implementation the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, to investigate the leaching and run-off Nitrogen losses by animal waste management systems; Data or expert judgment on the area and the frequency of pasture renewal 3. arising from Decision No 529/2013/EU monitoring of GHG-emissions from cropland and grazing land management are required.

27 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Thank you for your attention Alapítva: 1870