Changes in pig production in China and their effects on N and P use and losses Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Wei Qin, Qing Chen, Oene Oenema, Fusuo Zhang

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1 Changes in pig production in China and their effects on N and P use and losses Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Wei Qin, Qing Chen, Oene Oenema, Fusuo Zhang baizh1986@126.com

2 Outline Background Material and methods Results Conclusions

3 Ratio of pork in the total meat consumption in 21 Background Why pig production? 8% 6% 4% 2% % China Netherlands USA EU World Ratio of pork in the total meat consumption in 21 FAO database

4 The feed use and N losses per pig in EU consumption (kg/life time) Human consumption (kg/year) Maize Soybean 63.2 Wheat BW: 11 kg, 33 kg feed (DM) 3. kg of N losses. Other

5 Slaughtered pigs (million head) We have 1.4 billion head of pigs in 212, half was in China Cereals: 46 Mt NH 3 -N: 4.2 Mt EU Cereals: 42 Mt NH 3 -N: 7.9 Mt China USA EU Africa Other FAO database

6 Diverse pig production systems in China Industrial (>3 head) TOP 3 feed: Grain products Industrial feed additive Fish Meal Traditional (4%) (~ 49 head) TOP 3 feed: Kitchen wastage Bran and chaff Fresh parts of vegetables

7 N losses in the whole pig production chain Feeding Housing Storage Treatment Application Crop production From Y. Hou

8 Outline Background Material and methods Results Conclusions

9 Characteristics of the pig production systems in China Back-yard Traditional Medium size Industrial Size (head) >3 Slaughter time (days) 1 year Feed management Residue Use grain in key period Grain based Complete feed No of fattening pig (head per sow per year) Slaughter weight (kg per head) Mortality 6% 15% 11% 6% Manure discharge rate None Low Medium High Manure fate Applied 5% Applied Export Export

10 The research boundary Fattener Fattener level level Herd Herd level level System System level level Animal Animal feed feed P P additives additives Fertilizer Fertilizer BNF BNF Deposition Deposition Feed Feed Feed Feed Consumption Pork Pork Pork By-product By-product By-product feed feed feed Processing Live Live Live animal animal animal Fattening pig pig herd herd Fattening Fattening pig pig Sows Sows Boars Boars production Main Main Main feed feed feed Recycle Recycle Recycle as as as feed feed feed Recycle Recycle Recycle as as as feed feed feed Manure Manure Manure recycle recycle recycle Feed Feed production (Soil (Soil accumulation) accumulation) Pork Pork Manure Manure Pork Pork Manure Manure Household Household wastes wastes Processing Processing wastes wastes Manure Manure export export Dead Dead pigs pigs Losses Losses Field Field losses losses

11 Dry matter intake model 28% Production Net energy Gross energy (DM) 35% 3% 1% Maintenance Heat increment Urinary and CH 4 DM = q (MW a + LWG b + Milk/Egg c) 44% Faecal energy Live weight gain (LWG), metabolic weight (MW), feed quality (q), a, b, c are coefficients. Energy system of alfalfa hay

12 N and P footprint model Leach et al., 212

13 Outline Background Material and methods Results Conclusions

14 population (million heads) The changes of pig production from 196 to Backyard Traditional Medium Intensive 36 kg/yr 6 5 Netherlands: 3-5 kg/yr 28 kg/yr Average pork consumption per capital 2.4 kg/yr 7.3 kg/yr 12 kg/yr 2 kg/yr

15 Changes of total feed and land consumption from 196 to Corn (Tg) Soybean (Tg) Feed (Tg) Land (million ha) Fertilizer N (Gg) Fertilizer P (Gg)

16 Variation of total nitrogen losses Proportion to the whole losses % Total nitrogen losses (tons) (Gg) Nitrogen losses of pig production from 196 to 21 N 3 times NH3 emission Denitrification Runoff, leaching Discharge Pork waste

17 Variation of total phosphorus losses Proportion to the whole losses % Total phosphorus losses (Gg) Phosphorus losses of pig production 8 6 from 196 to 21 P 85 times Runoff, leaching Discharge Pork waste

18 Meat Meat supply supply ther Other 36% 36% 64% 64% Feed Feed grain grain Other Other51% 49% 51% 49% Other Other 9% 9% Other 92% 1% Percentage of pig production contribute to resources use and nutrient losses Other 1% N fertilizer N fertilizer Other 92% 8% 8% 9% 91% 9% Other 91% P fertilizer P fertilizer P fertilizer P fertilizer Other 88% 88% 5% 12% 12% Other Other Other 95% 95% 5% Arable Arable land land 1% 1% N losses Water N losses Water consumption consumption 9% 9% 12% 12% P losses P losses 28% 28% Other Other 9% 9% Other Other 91% 91% Other 88% Other 88% Other 72% Other 72% N fertilizer N fertilizer P fertilizer P fertilizer

19 N footprint of China s pig production in 21 By-product + Import New Applied Crop Feed gain Carcass Pork Consumed Field loss N not taken Manure loss Manure export Dead pig SlaughterProcessing waste waste Food waste

20 P footprint of China s pig production in 21 By-product + Import New Applied Crop Feed gain Carcass Pork Consumed Field loss P not taken Manure loss Manure export Dead pig Slaughter waste Processing waste Food waste

21 NUE % PUE % Changes in N and P use efficiencies of pig production Fattener Herd System Fattener Herd System Fattener: fattening pig; Herd: fattening pig, sows, boars; System: BNF, CF, feed import.

22 FCR (kg/kg) Improvement of feed conversion ratio 15 (FCR) from 196 to Average feed requirements to produce 1 kg of pork during 196 to

23 N losses (kg N per kg pork N) N losses (kg N per kg pork N) P losses (kg P per kg pork P) Changes of average N and P losses from 196 to NH3 N2 Runoff&erosion Discharge Mortality NH3 N2 Runoff&erosion Discharge Mortality Changes in mean N and P losses associated with the consumption of 1 kg pork N or P from196 to 21

24 P fertilizer use (Gg) N losses (Gg) P losses (Gg) Feed use (M tons) Land use (M ha) N fertilizer use (Gg) Scenarios in Feed Land N fertilizer P fertilizer N losses P losses 21 23

25 Development of scenarios to improve pig production S1-adoption of low-emission pig housing and manure storage facilities; S2-improved manure and fertilizer management; S3-a ban on manure discharge; S4-improved herd management; S5-precision feeding with improved feed; S6- combination of S1-S5.

26 Total nitrogen losses (Gg) Total phosphorus losses (Gg) Total Total nitrogen nitrogen losse losse (Gg) (Gg) Total nitrogen losse (Gg) Higher potential to reduce the N and P losses in the future 21 S S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S S S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Ammonia emissions S S S1 S1S2 S2S3 S3 S4 S4 S5 S6 Denitrification S5 S6 onia emission Ammonia Ammonia Runoff, emission leaching Denitrification emissions & erosion Denitrification Runoff, leaching Runoff, & erosion leaching & erosion harge losses Discharge Denitrification Discharge losses Pork losses waste Pork waste Runoff, leaching & erosion S1-adoption of low-emission pig housing and manure storage facilities; S2-improved manure and fertilizer management; S3-a ban on manure discharge; S4-improved herd management; S5-precision feeding with improved feed; S6- combination of S1-S5.

27 Outline Background Material and methods Results Conclusions

28 number (million) population (million head) System nitrogen use efficiency (NUE, %) System NUE % ystem nitrogen use efficiency (NUE, %) Conclusions Between 196 and 21, pig production has largely shifted from the backyard system to landless systems. The NUE at fattener level increased from 19 to 28%, due to the increased animal productivity. The NUE at the system level decreased from 46 to 11%, due to structure changes. 1 System NUE number population System NUE 8 population Year 21

29 s (Gg) s (Gg) losses Total nitrogen losses (Gg) Total nitrogen losses (Gg) Total phosphorus losses (Gg) Total nitrogen losse (Gg) Total Total nitrogen nitrogen losse losse (Gg) (Gg) osse en losse (Gg) (Gg) Total nitrogen losse (Gg) Conclusions The total N and P losses were 5289 and 829 Gg in 21, which is 3 and 95 times higher than in 196. In the BAU, the total N and P 7 losses were projected to increase by 25 and 55% between 21 and 23, respectively N and P losses can reduce by 64 and 95%, respectively. Such improvements require 3 major transition in the pig production 2 sector, notably in of manure management, herd 7 1 management and feeding practices S S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S S S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Ammonia emissions S S S S1 S1 S1S2S2 S2S3S3 S3 S4 S4 S4 S5 S6 S5 Denitrification S6 Ammonia emission Ammonia Ammonia Runoff, emission leaching Denitrification emissions & erosion Denitrification Runoff, leaching Runoff, & erosion leaching & erosion 1 Discharge 5 4 5losses Discharge Denitrification 5 Discharge losses Pork losses waste Pork waste Runoff, leaching & erosion

30 Thanks very much!