Sustainability and Global Food Security: Paradox or Necessity?

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1 Sustainability and Global Food Security: Paradox or Necessity? Dr. Greg Pillar William S. Lee Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Chemistry Thrive.

2 You can t build a peaceful world on empty stomachs and human misery -- Norman Borlaug Photograph: CIMMYT via Flickr Photograph: Micheline Pelletier/Sygma/Corb

3 Human Population Global human population (billions) billion billion 6.0 billion billion 1.6 billion 1 billion Year UN Population Division, people per second (80 million per year)

4 Global Hunger Undernourished (Millions) Population Undernourished Prevalence of Undernourishment Undernourished (%)

5 Hunger in Africa Undernourished (Millions) 230 Undernourished (Millions) Undernourished (%)

6 Global Food Supply Food Supply (kcal/capita/day) North America Africa Central America Caribbean South America Asia Europe

7 Global Food Supply

8 Food Production - Grains Relative Production (Scaled to 1 in 1961) Main Grains (wheat, barley, maize, rice, oats) Coarse Grains (millet, sorghum) Root Crops (cassava, potato)

9 Food Production - Meat Relative Production (scaled to 1 in 1961) Chickens Pigs Cattle Sheep and Goats

10 Food Riots Egypt Algeria Venezuela & April Tunisia & June

11 Focus #1 Sustainable Sourcing

12 Modern Agriculture Fossil Fuel Resources Machines Fertilization Solar Energy Precipitation Carbon Dioxide Plant Nutrients & Amendments Seed Seeding Tillage Irrigation Harvest & Storage Water Agricultural Chemicals Purchased Inputs Pest Control Farm Production

13 Food Production & Fertilizers Food Production (billion tonnes) R 2 = Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr -1 ) FAO, 2011

14 Food Production & Resources ( ) Food Production (billion tonnes) Food Production (billion tonnes) R 2 = 0.86 R 2 = 0.96 R 2 = 0.99 Food Production (billion tonnes) Food Production (billion tonnes) Agricultural Land Area (billion ha) Land Area Equipped for Irrigation (million ha) Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr -1 ) R 2 = Agricultural Machinery (millions) FAO, 2011

15 Sustainable Sourcing Over 95% of farms in the world are family farms Graeub, et al., 2016 FAO, 2014

16 Sustainable Sourcing Family Farms manage 53% of agricultural land Graeub, et al., 2016 FAO, 2014

17 Agroecology

18 Urban Agriculture Justin Sullivan / Getty

19 Aquaculture

20 Urban Aquaculture

21 Focus #2 Improve Land & Water Management

22 Feeding the World in 2050 Population (millions) 2500 Africa % 1.1 billion hectares 17% Planted Crops Total Arable Rain-Irrigated Land Sub-Saharan Africa UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report,

23 Feeding the World in Central & South America Population (millions) % billion hectares Total Arable Rain-Irrigated Land 14% Planted Crops Central/South America UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report,

24 Feeding the World in Asia Population (millions) % billion hectares 0.21 billion hectares 71% Planted Crops China 77% Planted Crops India UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report,

25 Population Growth and Arable Land World population (billions) Arable land (ha/person) Year Human Population Human population (projected) Arable land Earthtrends.wri.org Faostat.fao.org/faostat

26 Water Resource Use Projected increases in water withdrawals for agriculture Freshwater withdrawal in agriculture, industry and domestic use. (2002). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 05:04, August 19, 2011 from se.

27 Focus #3 Climate Change

28 2015 Climate Anomalies and Events United Chile Eastern Western Australia Africa China Atlantic Arctic States Hurricane Pacific Hurricane Typhoon Season Season January Above Above 52 Flooding Below Sea th nd warmest ice average average had was impacted the year and (144% (63% lowest driest 3on rd over wettest record, of of month growth 75 normal), million (behind year October and over since people first 42010) th was 5 largest time record decades unusually ever collecting melt 3 storms on warm record began at the in same 1895, May time was the wettest month on record.

29 Climate Change

30 Climate Change USAID, 2008

31 Climate Change - Climate models suggest Central America will see warmer, drier conditions. More erratic weather patterns likely - Farmers should diversify crops (agroecology) and in some cases away from coffee. To be 100% in coffee these days I think is extremely risky Peter Baker, CABI - Roya, a leaf rust fungus has caused $1 billion in damages in the region. Dyer, 2014

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33 Yap A small island with big challenges

34 Climate Extinction?

35 Focus #4 Nutrition & Food Waste

36 Ecuador: The Ayme family of Tingo Food expenditure for one week: $31.55 Menzel & D Aluisio, 2008

37 United States: The Revis family of North Carolina Food expenditure for one week: $ Menzel & D Aluisio, 2008

38 Expanding Western Diet

39 Expanding Western Diet

40 Food Waste 20% 30% Oilseeds Cereals 20% 1/3 Of the worlds food is wasted each year which is the equivalent to 1.3 billion tons. 35% Meat and dairy 40 50% Root Crops, Fruits, Veggies Fish

41 Focus #5 Technology & Sustainability

42 Genetically Modified Food

43 Flood Tolerant Rice (SUB1A)

44 System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Planting of seedlings at 8 12 days (instead of days), 25 cm apart Keeping soil moist (but well-drained and aerated) Intercropping & mechanical weeding Utilizing compost and natural fertilizers Pantanali (1996)

45 System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Used in over 40 countries 20,000 farmers in Madagascar have adopted 90% reduction in seed requirements 50% water savings % increase in yield China t/ha (national avg = 6 t/ha) Pantanali (1996),

46 Focus #5 Addressing Price Volatility

47 FAO Food Price Index FAO, 2011

48 US Grocery Bill - The average American spends around 9% of their total income on food. - In 2010, households earning $5,000 - $35,000 spent 16-35% of their income on food In 2010, households earning more than $70,000 spent 8% of their income on food. McMillan, 2012 Gallup, 2012 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009 > $100 per week $100 - $200 per week $200 - $300 per week > $300 per week

49 Food as a percentage of total household consumption: China 39.8% Vietnam 50.7% India 49.5% Ukraine 61.0% Philippines 45.6% Kenya 45.8% Sudan 52.9% Nigeria 73.0% Photo Credits: Reuters, AP, Nomura, AsiaNews.it Guardian.co.uk, dailymail.co.uk Nomura, 2011

50 The Boy Who Changed the World You can t build a peaceful world on empty stomachs and human misery -- Norman Borlaug Photograph: CIMMYT via Flickr Photograph: Micheline Pelletier/Sygma/Corb Andy Andrews

51 Thank You!! Online: Twitter: PillarESci Thrive.