Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain

Transcription

1 Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain February 2009

2 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forwardlooking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including those referred to in the management discussion and analysis section of the Corporation s most recent annual report to shareholders, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Corporation to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements, including, but not limited to, weather conditions, crop prices, the future supply, demand and price level for our major products, future gas prices and gas availability in key markets, future operating rates and production costs at Agrium s facilities, the exchange and tax rates for U.S., Canada and Argentina, domestic fertilizer consumption and any changes in government policy in key agriculture markets, including the application of price controls and tariffs on fertilizers and the availability of subsidies or changes in their amounts, the potential inability to integrate and obtain anticipated synergies for recent business acquisitions as planned or within the time predicted, changes in development plans, construction progress, political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict, general economic, market and business condition, Egyptian governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof. Agrium disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information as a result of new information or future events except as required by law. 2

3 Balanced Growth Across the Value Chain Agrium Wholesale: $4.7-billion sales Nitrogen, Potash, Phosphate & Sulphate Purchase for Resale Distribution & Storage Retail Customers Agrium Retail: $5.5-billion sales* Distribution & Storage Industrial customer Growers Advanced Technologies: Leader in Specialty Fertilizers $350-million sales Growers Turf, Home, Garden Potash expansion CMF distribution MOPCO investment Royster, ConAgra, ADM retail, and UAP Hanfeng, Pursell, NuGro, ESN 3 *Includes UAP contributions from May 2008

4 Modest Rebound in Grain Stocks Despite Record Yields 2,400 1,200 Production/Consumption (million tonnes) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Production Consumption Stocks 1,100 1, Stocks (million tonnes) 300 1, , / / / / /09f 0 4 Source: Total Grains, USDA, WASDE 464 November 2008

5 U.S. Corn Cash Margins 10 Year Historical 5 $/acre f Fertilizer Seed & Crop Protection Other Cash Costs Margin Source: USDA ERS, USDA NASS, Agrium

6 EBITDA* by business unit $ Millions Wholesale Retail Advanced Technologies *EBITDA = Net earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and asset impairment

7 2008 EBITDA by Business Unit & Product PPfR and Other 1% Nitrogen 29% Retail 25% 3% Advanced Technologies 2% Phosphate 17% 26% Potash 7

8 U.S. Agricultural Inputs Large and Stable Industry Expenditures (billion US$) f 8 Source: USDA ERS Chemicals Fertilizer Seed

9 Largest North American Agricultural Retailer UAP acquisition boosts net sales to over $5-billion Well balanced portfolio of seed, fertilizer, crop protection products, and application services $560-million 2008 EBITDA Over 800 North American retail centers 2008 Agrium Retail Gross Profit* Crop Protection 40% Other 3% 8% Application Seed 5% 44% Crop Nutrients 9 *Includes UAP contributions from May 2008

10 Retail Gross Profit by Product $ Millions Crop Nutrients Crop Protection Seed Application & Other

11 UAP Acquisition to Expand Diversity & Scale wheat and potatoes Additional 380 locations nearly doubles Agrium s retail business fruits and vegetables corn soybeans cotton Increases geographic presence in key U.S. plains area as well as Texas and Florida Further geographic, crop and product diversity Decreases exposure to regional weather patterns 11 wheat Agrium Retail Locations UAP Retail Locations States with significant expansion to Agrium s retail footprint

12 Significant UAP Synergies Expected Anticipate annual synergies of approximately $115-million, phased realization: ~ $80-million in 2009 ~ $115-million in 2010 and beyond Synergies achieved through Benefit from UAP s expertise on crop protection procurement Procurement of crop nutrients and combining seed business Significantly expand private label crop protection lines at Agrium Reduction in SG&A expenses 12 *Based on expected UAP 2008 calendar year EBITDA

13 Agrium s Retail Transformation $600 $500 Retail EBITDA (US$ millions) Future expected UAP synergies $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Historic CAGR 10% per year (2) * 2002* Combined (1) UAP base business Royster Synergies Base business ) Last 12 month EBITDA from UAP as of February 24, 2008 as disclosed in UAP s public disclosure documents 2) Compounded Annual Growth Rate was accomplished without an increase in the number of centers between 1999 and 2005 * 2001 excludes negative impact of the Argentine currency devaluation, 2002 excludes an estimate of one-time benefit of Argentine currency devaluation of US$15-million 13

14 Wholesale Advantages Potash (K) mmt low cost production capacity - Diverse global/na customer base Nitrogen (N) - Over 5.0 mmt production capacity - Natural gas and in-market advantages - Diversified global production assets Phosphate (P) Purchase for Resale (PFR) - Over 1.0 mmt production capacity - Two integrated facilities with in-market and cost advantages - Optimizes our extensive distribution and marketing capabilities - CMF acquisition enhances annual PFR volumes by 2.5 mmt 14

15 Extensive Distribution System North America almost 4 MMT of fertilizer storage in Wholesale & Retail * Profertil S.A. is 50 percent owned by Agrium Inc. and 50 percent owned by Repsol YPF, S.A. in Argentina ** 26 percent interest in MISR Oil Processing Company, S.A.E. (MOPCO) in Egypt. *** 70 percent equity position in Common Market Fertilizers S.A. (CMF) in Europe. South America Africa/Middle East Europe Nitrogen Production Solution Production Phosphate Production Phosphate Mine Potash Production Potash Mine Granulation Production Ammonia Pipeline System Anhydrous Ammonia Storage Solution Storage Dry Storage Blend Storage Engro Distribution U.S. Sales Office Wholesale Head Office 15

16 Internationally Competitive Potash Recent Expansion of Potash Capacity: to 2.1 mmt from 1.75 mmt (+20%) Market Advantages Market internationally through Canpotex Strong margins Cost Advantages Low-cost production % Sales* NA sales 54% International 46% 16 *2-Year Average Sales Volumes Potash Facility Potash Markets

17 Advantaged NA Nitrogen Business Regional nitrogen price spread over New Orleans (NOLA) import price & lower cost gas, provides competitive advantage Delivered prices, plantgate returns lower after transport costs to customer Urea +$80 Ammonia +$178 US$/metric tonne Nitrogen production facility Nitrogen upgrading facility Urea +$43 Ammonia +$97 Urea +$73 Ammonia +$93 Urea +$20 Ammonia +$69 NOLA North America 17 Source: Green Markets: Spread equals regional reference price minus NOLA reference price. Delivered prices adjusted by -$5/t for Urea and -$9/t for ammonia to estimate FOB prices. Based on a 5-year average from

18 International Nitrogen Egypt Nitrogen Facility Joint-interest in modern, low-cost nitrogen facility with access to key markets Agrium s equity interest is 26% Recently-commissioned 675,000 tonne urea facility (Agrium s share 175,000 tonnes); MOPCO has plans to expand to over 2.0 million tonnes by 2011 (Agrium s share 525,000 tonnes) International - Egypt Argentina Argentina Nitrogen Facility Almost $100-million in EBITDA in each of the past four years from Profertil, Argentina facility Strong nitrogen markets, in-country transport cost advantage & low delivery cost to Brazil Profertil 18 EBITDA in millions US$ Source: Calculated from Company Reports

19 Regional Phosphate Advantages Market Advantages Facilities situated in key markets provide significant transportation advantages Vertically Integrated facilities Competitive advantage on sulphur & NH3 costs Partly offset by higher cost (CDN) rock Sales (Tonnes 000 s) Canada 540 U.S Sales: Thousand tonnes of product Phosphate Facility Phosphate Markets

20 20 Strong Q-over-Q Wholesale Gross Margins/Tonne Nitrogen Nitrogen Nitrogen Nitrogen Nitrogen Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Potash Potash Potash Potash Potash $900 Nitrogen Phosphate Potash $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 $0 Q4-08 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Depreciation (US$/Tonne)

21 Advanced Technologies Leader in environmentally friendly specialty products, broad mix of products marketed to: Turf, Ornamental, Greenhouse, High Value Specialty Crops, Lawn and Garden High and stable margins on controlled release products ESN is Agrium s patented controlled-release product for major crops, capacity expansion to 160,000 tonnes Equity position (19.6%) in Hanfeng (HF.TO), a leading producer of value-added fertilizer in China, provides Agrium with: 1. geographic & product diversity 2. window into China 3. opportunity to participate in future joint ventures in China 21

22 Agrium is Well Positioned for the Future Diversified by Geography, Business and Product line (nutrients, seed, crop protection), positioned to capitalize on the strong long-term industry fundamentals Reduced fall applications, increased corn acreage and lower short term international demand due to credit issues & reduced production should set the stage for a tight 2009 crop input market Agrium has an excellent mix of assets, a strong balance sheet and a proven track record of delivering value to shareholders 22

23 The Future is Promising

24 Agrium Product Sales by Market/Region Diverse Market Mix Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Canadian Ag 19% 51% 7% U.S. Ag 50% 48% 44% Industrial 23%* 1% 4% International 8% 46% 24 * Approximately 38% of nitrogen sales from Alberta nitrogen facilities are to the Industrial market Source: Company reports

25 U.S. Retail Market Segmentation # of Companies Average # of Over $1000 $100-$1000 $50-$100 $25-$50 $15-$25 Retail Sales (US$ Millions) Outlets: Source: 2005 CropLife 100 Survey

26 Agrium s New Retail Operations 1 $ Millions Agrium Retail UAP Pre- Synergies Synergies Combined Net Sales $2,466 $3,411 $5,877 - $5,877 Gross Profit $676 $481 $1,157 $ 90 $1,247 27% 14% 20% - 21% Expenses $499 $297 $796 $ (25) $771 20% 9% 14% - 13% EBITDA $210 $207 $417 $115 $ % 6.0% 7.1% 9.0% 1 Annualized 26 Source: 2007 Company Reports

27 Retail Net Sales Snapshot 1 $ Millions Agrium Retail % UAP % Combined % Fertilizer $ 1, $ 1, $ 2, Chemicals $ $ 1, $ 2, Seed $ $ $ Other $ $ 99 3 $ Total $ 2,466 $ 3,411 $ 5,877 1 Annualized 27 Source: 2007 Company Reports

28 Growth in Retail Gross Profit $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 Gross Profit (US$ millions) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Legacy Retail (excl. UAP) 2008 Crop Nutrients Crop Protection Seed, Services & Other 28

29 Agrium is the Leading U.S. Agricultural Retailer $5.5-billion in net sales* in 2008 to growers of seed & services, crop protection products, and fertilizers wheat and potatoes 31 South American Retail Centers fruits and vegetables corn soybeans cotton soybeans corn wheat fruits and vegetables Agrium Retail Locations 29 *Excludes UAP net sales prior to May 5, 2008

30 Gross Profit Improvement Across All Businesses & Products $ Millions 1,500 1,250 1, Retail Nitrogen Potash Phosphate AAT

31 Market Information

32 32 Benchmark Prices: Nitrogen (Urea) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Pacific Northwest NOLA Black Sea $100 $0 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 $ U.S./tonne Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, The Market, Green Markets

33 Global Nitrogen Capacity Additions (excl. China) - Limited capacity nitrogen additions in World nitrogen capacity of 142 mmt, excluding China 102 mmt (Million tonnes of Nitrogen) High and Low Range For World Demand Growth Other Iran Other/Africa Kenai 33 Note: Excludes Chinese capacity additions, nutrient tonnes Sources: British Sulphur, Fertecon, Agrium, low/high demand growth range 2-3.5%

34 34 Premium Phosphate Region $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 US$/tonne Pacific Northwest Central Florida Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Green Markets

35 Global Phosphate Capacity Additions 3 High and Low Range For World Demand Growth 2 (Million tonnes of P205) Other North Africa China Saudi Arabia Sources: British Sulphur, Agrium, low/high demand growth range 2-5% 35

36 36 Benchmark Prices: Potash $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Midwest Saskatchewan Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 US$/Tonne Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Source: Green Markets, Blue, Johnson & Associates, Agrium

37 Global Potash Capacity Additions 3 (Million tonnes of K2O) 2 1 High and Low Range For World Demand Growth Other FSU Canada Sources: Fertecon, IFA, Agrium FSU denotes the Former Soviet Union (Belarus, Russia, Uzbekistan) Low/High demand growth range of 2-5%

38 Corn Cash Margins Remain Strong $100 INCREASE IN AMMONIA PRICE = $0.09/BUSHEL FERTILIZER COST EVERY $1 SPENT ON FERTILIZER AT THE MARGIN RETURNS AT LEAST $3 IN CROP RETURNS $/bu Margin Above Cash Cost Other Cash Costs Seed & Chemical Fertilizer Avg f 38 Source: USDA, Doane Advisory Services, Agrium

39 Average U.S. Gross Profit Per Acre $ per acre $2.37/bu $3.40/bu $3.90/bu $6.14/bu $9.30/bu $8.70/bu $3.53/bu $4.40/bu $5.00/bu Avg 2008/09 Dec 2009 Cash Avg 2008/09 Nov 2009 Cash Avg 2008/09 Jul 2009 Cash Corn Soybean Wheat Source: USDA, Agrium, Barchart.com 39

40 Food Consumption Leads Growth in Global Crop Use 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1% 3% 1, Grain Consumption Soybean Consumption Biofuel Consumption 40 Biofuels have moved from 1% to 3% of total grain and oilseed consumption Net consumption is 3% after factoring in ethanol co-products (animal feed) Grain for food has increased by almost 300 million tonnes Grain for ethanol has increased by less than 80 million tonnes Source: FAPRI, RFA

41 World Grain Harvested Area and Yield Tonnes/Hectare Million Hectares Harvested Area Actual Yield Trend Yield Despite record projected global grain yields in 2008/09, that are also significantly above trend, there is only a relatively small increase in global grain ending stocks forecasted All else being equal, global grain consumption would have exceeded production by 39 million tonnes if there would have been a trend yield in 2008/09 41

42 42 Average Fertilizer Use in Corn Source: IFA, USDA, Agrium Corn Yield Corn Yield Corn Yield Nutrient Use kg/ha Corn Yield t/ha 0 India Brazil USA Yield Potash Phosphorus Nitrogen Nutrient Use Nutrient Use Nutrient Use

43 Rice Yield 43 Average Fertilizer use in Rice 500 Source: IFA, USDA, Agrium Rice Yield Rice Yield Nutrient Use kg/ha Rice Yield t/ha 0 Brazil India China Yield Potash Phosphorus Nitrogen Nutrient Use Nutrient Use Nutrient Use