Florida Nursery and Landscape Industry Outlook for 2013

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1 Florida Nursery and Landscape Industry Outlook for 2013 Presented by Hayk Khachatryan and Alan Hodges University of Florida, Food & Resource Economics Department November 2012

2 Presentation Outline Industry at a glance Situation Sales estimates Market channels Industry threats Growth opportunities Competition Housing market Transportation costs Consumer demand

3 Florida Environmental Horticulture Industry Profile About 4,700 commercial nursery and greenhouse firms Production area: 141,724 open acres, 338 million square feet under protective cover Capital assets per firm: $1.18 million Source: 2007 Census of Agriculture (USDA-NASS)

4 Florida is the Second Largest State in Nursery Sales

5 Jan-01 May-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov Florida Horticulture Industry Employment, (monthly) Thousand Jobs Services to buildings and dwellings (Landscaping) Greenhouse and nursery production Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

6 Billion Dollars (2010) Florida Environmental Horticulture Industry Revenues, Landscape services Greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture production Retail lawn and garden centers Source: Implan

7 Economic Contributions of the Florida Environmental Horticulture Industry in 2010 Source: UF-IFAS, Economic contributions of the Florida environmental horticulture industry in 2010, report to FNGLA, Sept. 2011, available at

8 Estimated Sales of Florida Environmental Horticulture Firms in 2010 Source: UF-IFAS, Economic contributions of the Florida environmental horticulture industry in 2010, report to FNGLA, Sept. 2011, available at

9 Floriculture Crops Wholesale value ($1000) Percent Change U.S. (15 states) $4,148,766 $4,080, % California $1,015,083 $1,011, % Florida $826,077 $835, % Number producers U.S. (15 states) 6,164 5, % California % Florida % Covered production area (1000 sq.ft.) U.S. (15 states) 729, , % California 135, , % Florida 307, , % Florida wholesale floriculture sales by plant type ($1000) Annual bedding/garden plants Percent Change $80,525 $73, % Herbaceous perennials $46,766 $53, % Potted flower plants $115,421 $114, % Tropical foliage plants $424,103 $442, % Cut flowers NA $3,663 Cut cultivated greens $59,394 $54, % Propagative material $78,642 $81, % Total All Types $804,851 $823, % Source: USDA-NASS, Floriculture Crops Report, Apr Data represents operations with $100,000 or more in annual sales.

10

11 Annual Sales Range Distribution of Survey Respondents by Annual Sales Range (2010) $100 million or more $50 - $99.99 million $20 $49.99 million $10 - $19.99 million $5.0 - $9.99 million $2.5 - $4.99 million $1.0 - $2.49 million $500,000 - $999,999 $250,000 - $499,999 $100,000 - $249,999 less than $100,000 Not available Nursery Landscape Retailer Allied 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent of Respondents

12 Sales by Market Region (2010) Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Nursery 3.4% 22.7% 22.1% 51.9% Landscape 2.0% 0.2% 13.9% 83.9% Retailer Allied 7.0% 0.6% 10.3% 5.5% 23.9% 23.8% 68.5% 60.4% Local area Florida (non-local) Other states International

13 Nurseries and Greenhouse Sales by Plant Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Million Dollars ,000 1,500 2,000 Tropical foliage Potted flowering Shrubs Palms Other Liners, cuttings, plugs Deciduous shade trees Vines or ground Flowering and fruit Evergreen trees Cut foliage, cut Turfgrass 10.1% 9.5% 5.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 21.5% 34.7% ,480

14 Landscape Firm Sales by Service/Product Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported Million Dollars 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Landscape maint. Landscape installation 22.8% 43.8% 1,377 2,647 Live plants Landscape design Supplies / equipment Landscape consulting Other Interiorscaping 11.8% 8.2% 5.4% 4.0% 3.2% 0.7%

15 Horticultural Retailer Sales by Product Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Million Dollars Live plants 50.6% 744 Other goods 28.8% 424 Supplies 13.7% 202 Hard goods 6.9% 101

16 Allied-Supplier Sales by Product/Service Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Million Dollars Chemicals Other products or services 15.9% 37.7% Financial & insurance 14.6% 82 Fertilizer 14.5% 81 Nursery containers 13.3% 74 Equipment and tools 2.3% 13 Soil media 1.1% 6 Packaging materials 0.4% 2 Consulting services 0.1% 1 Peat 0.1% 0

17

18 Nurseries and Greenhouse Sales by Customer Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Million Dollars ,000 1,500 2,000 Home improvement stores Landscape contractors, 14.4% 37.2% 612 1,587 Mass merchandise stores 12.7% 543 Re-wholesalers or brokers 11.1% 471 Ind. retail garden centers 9.3% 398 Other growers 8.7% 369 Homeowners 3.7% 157 Developers, property 1.7% 72 Other customers 1.3% 55

19 Landscape Service Firm Sales by Customer Type in 2010 Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Million Dollars 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Homeowners Apartments, condos 35.9% 21.9% 1,322 2,171 Commercial estab. Builders, developers Other landscape firms Governments Other 15.5% 10.8% 8.8% 5.4% 1.7%

20 Horticultural Retailer Sales by Customer Type in 2010 Homeowners Commercial establishments Apartments, condominiums Landscape contractors Other type of customer Other retailers Governments Percent of Sales Reported 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 51.1% 19.4% 10.3% 7.6% 5.5% 3.8% 2.5% Million Dollars

21

22 Issues or Threats to the Environmental Horticulture Industry Mean Importance Rating (1-10 scale) Economic recession Energy or transportation costs Increasing costs of production Low prices for products or services Drought or water use restrictions Government regulations Lack of professionalism Market power of large retail chains Poor worker education or skills Restrictions on chemicals Immigration enforcement Competition by plant substitutes Nursery Landscape Retailer Allied Source: UF-IFAS, Economic contributions of the Florida environmental horticulture industry in 2010, report to FNGLA, Sept. 2011, available at

23 Opportunities for Growth by Florida Horticulture Businesses Percent of respondents already doing or very interested 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Offering new services (e.g. green walls, roofs) Securing sustainability certifications Growing/Selling Florida-friendly plants Using social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) Expanding digital presence (websites, i-phone apps) Participating in branding campaigns Networking or partnering with builders/developers Earning FNGLA professional certification Using/Selling biodegradable containers Landscape installation or maintenance Changing plant or product mix Retailing direct to the public Growing bio-fuel energy crops Growing edible crops Contract growing Nursery Landscape Retailer

24

25 External Factors Affecting Industry Performance Housing market dynamics - existing sales and new construction starts Unemployment rate Consumer confidence index Competition - intra-industry and foreign Transportation efficiency and fuel prices Consumer preferences and demand

26 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Level Housing Market: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Florida and U.S. 300 National Miami Tampa Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Source: Standard and Poor s Indices;

27 Unemployment Rate: Florida, CA, TX, & U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, through Google Public Data Service

28 Florida Consumer Confidence Index ( ) Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

29 Competition: Intra-industry and Imports Large producers vs. small, family-owned operations Large chain stores vs. specialized retailers U.S. is a net importer of nursery products 2012 imports, $1.9 B, 12.5% of domestic demand (expected 19.3%) U.S. exports 3.1%; $415.2 M of revenue Duty-free imports from South America (cheap labor, favorable weather) The Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act

30 Industry Consolidation U.S. Establishments in ,845 Decreased to 45,565 in 2012 (16% ) Small firms exiting the industry Larger firms: Efficient means of transportation Improved logistics Lower costs Lower prices

31 Transportation Costs and Industry Consolidation

32 Factors in choosing plants (1=Not important, 5=Extremely important) Quality of Plant 4.4 Price Color Guaranteed Growth Flowering Size of Plant Light Demand Drought Tolerance Effectiveness of Air Purification Importance Score (1=Not important; 5=Extremely Important) Source: Choi, H.J., and H. Khachatryan Main Factors Affecting Consumers Ornamental Plant Selection and Store Choice: Results from a National Consumer Survey. Mid-Florida Research and Education Center, Apopka, FL. Unpublished Report.

33 Final Thoughts Revenue $13.5 B in 2012 Decreased 4.2% per year since projected growth -0.7% per year (IBIS World Industry Report 11142, Sep 2012) Innovation GM seeds (licensing issues) Perceptions about GM movement Disease resistant varieties Consumer preferences Plant quality vs. price

34 Thank you for attention! Alan W. Hodges Hayk Khachatryan Food & Resource Economics Department Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences University of Florida

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