DEVELOPMENT OF A WEB-BASED DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL AND INFORMATION RESOURCE FOR SUGARCANE VARIETIES IN THE AUSTRALIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY

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1 DEVELOPMENT OF A WEB-BASED DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL AND INFORMATION RESOURCE FOR SUGARCANE VARIETIES IN THE AUSTRALIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY By D MILLARD 1, B CROFT 2, M COX 3, D PAYNE 4 1 BSES Limited Burdekin, 2 BSES Limited Woodford, 3 BSES Limited Bundaberg, 4 Isis Productivity Ltd. dmillard@bses.org.au KEYWORDS: Variety Selection, Decision Support, Productivity, Risk. Abstract QCANESelect is a web-based, decision support tool and information resource that delivers up-to-date variety recommendations and information in an easy-touse and intuitive way. It provides specific block recommendations based on grower-defined characteristics of a block and will develop a whole-farm plan for varieties. The whole-farm plan aims to maximise productivity while managing risks associated with over-reliance on one or two varieties, and by allowing for more than one disease to be considered in planting decisions across all blocks on the farm. Growers and advisors can also obtain graphical reports on variety adoption, productivity and disease resistance for the region. QCANESelect was developed after extensive consultation with grower focus groups and extension, Productivity Service and mill staff. The data used to provide the information and make recommendations are held in the BSES Variety Improvement database SPIDNet. QCANESelect provides growers with access to this database in a grower-friendly format. The productivity of varieties for each soil type in each region was assessed by a group of experts who assigned a yield score for that soil type. Yield scores are adjusted for disease resistance, seasonal sugar content and plant and management characteristics depending on what issues a grower nominates for the block he is interested in. The yield scores will be updated annually as more information becomes available about varieties. QCANESelect will be an important tool to help growers during the changeover from smut-susceptible to smut-resistant varieties. Introduction Sugarcane varieties can have a large influence on productivity. Growers have to consider a range of factors when choosing a variety to plant in a particular block on their farm. Some of the key factors that growers consider are: cane yield; sugar content; suitability of the variety to the soil type; disease resistance; 316

2 germination and ratooning ability; reaction of the variety to environmental stresses such as frost, drought, water logging; resistance or tolerance to pests such as canegrubs; availability of suitable seed cane. When making these critical decisions, growers obtain information from a wide range of sources. BSES provides variety information sheets and updates on variety performance through newsletters, media articles and grower meetings. Productivity Service companies and mills provide growers with weekly, monthly or annual reports on the performance of varieties based on mill data. Growers consider previous experience on their farm and reports from neighbours and planting contractors to help them to assess varieties. Growers have to weigh up the available information and their particular needs when choosing which varieties to plant. Their decisions are of critical economic importance because they have long-term implications for the remainder of the crop cycle. The Australian sugar industry has been through a series of boom and bust cycles with varieties. Epidemics of Fiji leaf gall (Ryan, 1988), brown rust (Egan and Ryan, 1979), pachymetra root rot (Croft and Magarey, 1984), orange rust (Magarey et al., 2001) and smut (Croft et al., 2008) have caused the loss of dominant varieties in the industry. Some people advocate that one variety should be restricted to no more than 30-40% of the crop as an insurance policy against disease or pest outbreaks. On the other hand, there have been situations where some growers have accepted the risk involved with high proportions of a single variety. Q124 reached 87% of the central region s production in 1999 because it was such an outstanding variety. Following the orange rust epidemic in 2000, this did create significant difficulties and economic losses in the change-over to resistant varieties. However, some would argue there was a net economic benefit in adopting a single variety strategy. This scenario is only likely to occur when there is one variety that is clearly more productive under all conditions than the alternatives. When new varieties are released, there is often limited information on how each variety will perform in different situations. Gathering information on new varieties and distributing the information to growers as soon as it becomes available will help growers make better variety selections. The recent loss of smut-susceptible varieties and the introduction of new smutresistant varieties will mean that growers are faced with a number of varieties for which there is very limited local information. Providing growers with up-to-date information on the new smut-resistant varieties will be important in the next five years. In recent years, a number of computer-based tools have been developed to help growers and advisory staff to record information and improve farm management, including FEAT (Stewart and Cameron, 2006), Prodbase Plus (Markley et al., 2008) and SugarMax (Prestwidge et al., 2008). This paper reports on the development of a web-based decision support tool for sugarcane varieties called QCANESelect. QCANESelect allows growers to produce a whole-farm plan for varieties to manage risks from disease and pest incursions and to obtain recommendations for individual blocks. It also provides general information on varieties. 317

3 Project development When developing a new product, one of the starting points is to conduct market research to determine what the customer wants. An independent survey conducted by consultants on behalf of BSES showed that 67% of respondents rated a computer-based variety selection tool as the most important computer aid for their farm. Extensive consultation was conducted with growers, extension officers and industry personnel to determine how they choose varieties and the data they use to make planting decisions. Focus groups were conducted in most regions using a workbook, based on the think, write, speak concept taught by Ian Plowman in his Meetings Without Discussion workshops, to determine what growers would like in a variety decision-support tool. The focus group sizes ranged from six to twelve growers, and on average the workshops took between 2.5 to 3 hours to complete. The feedback received from growers was positive, with most expressing the view that they would find a variety selection tool very useful. Even growers who were not computer literate considered that they would like to have access to a web-based decision-support tool for varieties. Some of the specific features that growers would like to see in a decision support tool were: more specific variety recommendations by soil class; more reliable mill data on new varieties; more rapid distribution of information on the disease resistance of varieties; should not replace one-on-one extension services; must be simple, easy and fast to use; must be delivered with suitable training. The name QCANESelect was chosen for the decision support tool from suggestions made by growers at the focus groups. Design of QCANESelect Using the results of the surveys and focus groups, the project team designed a draft model of the tool with the following key modules: variety Information; individual block recommendations; whole-farm plans; regional reports on varieties; feedback. User interface QCANESelect delivers variety information and recommendations to growers and industry via a simple and easy-to-use web-based interface. There is very little data entry, with users presented with traditional hyperlink menu items, simple drop-down lists and radiobutton selections whenever possible. The technical specifications are shown in Table

4 Table 1 Technical specifications of QCANESelect. Toolset Product/version Development environment Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 Microsoft.NET Framework Version 2.0 Development language Microsoft Visual C# 2005 Database Microsoft SQL Server 2005 Reporting software Interface controls & charting software Data Dynamics ActiveReports for.net 2.0 Infragistics NetAdvantage 2006 Volume 2 CLR 2.0 Data sources All the data that QCANESelect uses to provide variety information and recommendations are held within the BSES-CSIRO Variety Improvement database, SPIDNet. SPIDNet contains all data collected by BSES on individual varieties including pedigree, yield data from trials, disease resistance ratings, quality characteristics, growth and management characteristics and mill statistics. QCANESelect provides growers and advisors with access to this extensive database in a grower-friendly format. Yield scores The ranking of variety performance by soil classification is a key element of the system. Specific data on the performance of varieties on different soil types are not available from many mills and BSES trials are conducted on a limited range of soil types. Even where mill data are available, they often require careful interpretation because the results for a variety may be heavily biased by data from a small sample of fields, disproportionate representation of plant and young ratoons, or older ratoons, and many other factors. To overcome this problem, we developed the concept of a yield score. A simple definition of a yield score is that it is the best estimate of a variety s performance in both plant and ratoon crops, over a normal crop cycle, on a $/ha return basis. Expert knowledge from extension officers, plant breeders and Productivity Service staff together with analysis of BSES trial and local mill data, are used to estimate yield scores for each variety for each of the soil classes within a region. An example of yield scores in the Bundaberg/Isis region is shown in Table 2. A yield score of 10 means this is the first-choice variety for that particular soil class. We found that reviewing the performance of varieties during the meetings of the local experts to assign the yield scores was a very useful exercise, and the sharing of information within the group improved everyone s understanding of how varieties perform in their region. In future years, we hope to make better use of mill data as mills and local productivity groups obtain more accurate and specific data. Yield scores will be reviewed annually and updated as necessary, taking into consideration new data and the relative performance of varieties. 319

5 Table 2 Sample yield scores for Bundaberg/Isis. Diseases Disease resistance ratings for varieties are obtained by BSES from screening trials conducted each year (Magarey et al., 2005). BSES pathologists estimated the average yield loss, on the same scale as the yield score, over a crop cycle for varieties with different disease resistance ratings, using the ISSCT disease scale of 1 9 where 1 is highly resistant and 9 is highly susceptible, for each of the important diseases in a region. The yield score is adjusted by applying the disease penalties to the yield scores if a grower nominates that disease as of concern to him (e.g. Table 3). In a small number of cases, a bonus was applied for varieties that were resistant to diseases such as striate mosaic. This was done to promote a variety that was resistant to the disease but would otherwise not be considered purely on its yield score. Table 3 Disease penalties for Bundaberg/Isis. Plant and management issues Growers and advisory staff identified the key plant and management issues for each region. The panel of experts for each region classified varieties as poor, average or good for each management issue. For some issues such as suitability for standover or 2-year crop, the varieties were rated only as yes/no for suitability. If a grower indicates that a management issue is of concern, then the system will check to see if the characteristic is marked as a filter and, if it is, any variety rated as poor will be dropped from the recommendation. Some 320

6 characteristics such as canegrub tolerance are not marked as a filter. In this case, it was decided after discussion with BSES entomologists that the rating will be highlighted but varieties rated as poor will not be excluded. This is because BSES entomologists recommend that growers, wherever possible, control canegrubs with integrated pest management techniques. Table 4 shows a sample of ratings for plant and management characteristics. Table 4 Management issues ratings table for Bundaberg/Isis. Optimising the mix of varieties that have the best relative sugar content at different times of the season is a key management practice. QCANESelect applies a penalty or bonus depending on a variety s rating for relative sugar content for early-, mid- and lateseason harvest. We are currently working on refining these penalty/bonuses based on actual mill data. Variety information The variety information page shown in Figure 1 is a typical example of the QCANESelect user interface. From this page, growers can request a print-out of a variety information sheet or a variety guide, two of the key resources that growers use in making their variety selection decisions. The grower can obtain information on varieties in a number of formats. The information on a variety can be obtained in the common one page per variety format or a grower can compare the information for two or more varieties in a side-by-side or fold-out variety guide that has been popular in some regions. Specific information on disease ratings or management issues can be obtained in table or graphical formats. Unlike existing paper-based variety guides, the web-based variety information is instantly updated whenever BSES updates information in the SPIDNet database. Block recommendations The block recommendations section of QCANESelect provides growers with a specific recommendation for an individual block based on characteristics of the block that are defined by the grower. 321

7 Fig. 1 The variety information page. The minimum requirement is for the grower to nominate a soil type for the block. However, the grower can nominate other key issues associated with that block and QCANESelect will combine the yield score, disease penalties and scores for plant and management issues to provide the best variety that meets the requirements specified by the grower. Figure 2 shows an example of the block recommendation page. Fig. 2 Block Recommendation selection criteria for Bundaberg/Isis region. 322

8 If the grower selects Grey Forest soils in this example, and clicks on the Get Recommendation button, then QCANESelect will use the soil class and find the recommended varieties for the region that match (Figure 3A). The varieties will be displayed to the grower in yield-score order. If the grower nominates smut and pachymetra as diseases of concern and ticks Early Sugar, indicating they are interested in varieties that have better than-average CCS early in the season, the variety recommendation changes (Figure 3B). In both recommendations, the smut resistance of the varieties is shown. This feature is to highlight to growers the importance of smut resistance during the next few years. The penalty for smut is only applied if the grower ticks smut as a disease of concern. If a grower wants more information on the first two choices, he can go directly to a variety comparison report. Fig. 3A. Fig. 3B. Fig. 3 Block recommendation results for two examples for the Bundaberg/Isis region. A. Soil class only selected. B. Soil class, smut and pachymetra root rot resistance and early sugar selected. Whole-farm plans The whole-farm variety productivity and risk-management planning module allows growers to set rules or targets for specific risk-management issues that are of concern to them. BSES recommends that growers limit the percentage of any one variety on their farm to 30 40% to spread risk in the same way as investors buy a range of stocks. In the wholefarm plan, the grower can set a target limit on the proportion of one variety and can also set limits for the percentage of varieties on the farm that are susceptible to pachymetra root rot or 323

9 frost. The system looks at data on all the current varieties on the farm when making recommendations for the blocks the grower nominates for planting. Any variety selection that violates the grower s own rules will be highlighted on the recommendation page and the rules that have been broken will be explained. The grower can accept the recommendation made by the system or over-ride his own rules and accept a variety that has been excluded. Alternatively, a grower can run the system again with modified rules until he is happy with the recommendations. The variety selections are displayed in a page similar to the page used for individual block recommendations so growers can see how the selection was made. Whole-farm reports are available in table and graphical format of the variety composition, crop age composition, disease resistance, and plant and management characteristics of the varieties on his farm today and in future years. A module that will assist growers in preparing seed sources to provide the required seed cane for future years is planned. We believe that the whole-farm plan will provide growers with a powerful tool to maximise productivity from varieties while managing risks. Regional reports The regional report section provides growers, advisory staff and mills with graphs showing current and past variety composition, yield of varieties, CCS of varieties and the proportion of the crop that is resistant to the important diseases in an area. In most cases, the user can define the region, years and varieties that he is interested in when creating the graph. We believe this component will be very useful for advisory staff in tracking changes in varieties over time. It will also give an instant update of how, for example, the shift to smutresistant varieties is progressing in a region. Currently, the data for this section are updated 3 6 months after the end of the season but we hope that with improved data sharing between groups in the industry that these data will be available as soon as they are they is checked at the end of the season. Feedback One of the critical elements of the project has been to ensure that users of QCANESelect can provide feedback to BSES, so that their experience can be used to improve future recommendations. Feedback is ed automatically to a local BSES staff member in each region so they can follow up any problems a grower may have with a variety. Summary QCANESelect is a new web-based decision support tool for varieties. The system provides growers, advisory staff and mills with up-to-date information and variety recommendations. QCANESelect provides specific block recommendations based on grower-defined characteristics of the block and will develop a whole-farm plan for varieties. The whole-farm plan aims to maximise productivity while managing risks from disease outbreaks. Growers and advisors can also obtain graphical reports on variety adoption, productivity and disease resistance for the region. Acknowledgements The computer programming for QCANESelect was performed by Rebecca Watts and Phil Lethbridge and we thank them for their excellent work and the patience they have shown to our many requests. We would like to acknowledge the many growers, advisory and 324

10 mill staff that assisted in the development team and focus groups meetings. This project was partially funded by SRDC and the QDPI&F. REFERENCES Egan BT, Ryan CC (1979) Sugarcane rust, caused by Puccinia melanocephala found in Australia. Plant Disease Reporter 63, Croft BJ, Magarey RC (1984) Pathogenic fungi associated with Northern Poor Root Syndrome of sugarcane. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 6, Croft BJ, Magarey RC, Allsopp PG, Cox MC, Willcox TG, Milford BJ, Wallis ES (2008) Sugarcane smut in Queensland: arrival and emergency response. Australasian Plant Pathology 37, Magarey RC, Croft BJ, Bull JI, Greet AD, James A (2005) The resistance of the Australian sugarcane germplasm to diseases in Queensland. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 27, Magarey R, Willcox T, Croft B, Cordingley A (2001) Orange rust, a major pathogen affecting crops of Q124 in Queensland in Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 23, Markley J, Ashburner B, Beech M (2008) The development of a spatial recording and reporting system for productivity service providers. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 30, Prestwidge D, Stainlay T, Skocaj D, Di Bella L, Higgins A (2008) Harvest planning for growers. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 30, Ryan CC (1988) Epidemiology and control of Fiji disease virus of sugarcane. Advances in Disease Vector Research 5, Stewart PF, Cameron T (2006) Improving the sugarcane farming system with FEAT: a decision-making tool to facilitate on-farm change. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists 28,

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