Tackling Agricultural Subsidies in WTO Negotiations

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1 Tackling Agricultural Subsidies in WTO Negotiations Gopal Naik 1. ROLE OF AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH ASIA Agriculture plays a major role in providing livelihood to a large proportion of the population in South Asia. It accounts for a quarter of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in these countries (Table 1), highest among the developing regions of the world. The percentage of rural population in this region is the highest (72 percent in 2) in the world and has not changed much compared to the situation two decades earlier. This is also a region with a high incidence of rural poverty. In India, poverty reduction is achieved better with rural rather than urban economic growth (Datt and Ravallion, 1996). Timmer (1997) found that a one percent increase in agricultural per capita GDP created a 1.61 percent increase in the per capita incomes of the poorest 2 percent of the population in 35 representative countries. Agricultural growth helps in increasing wages, lowering food prices, increasing demand for consumer and intermediate goods and services, facilitating development of agribusiness, increasing returns to labour and capital and improving the overall allocative efficiency of factor markets (Ingco and Nash, 24). Growth of the agricultural sector is crucial for achieving a number of key development goals such as enhancing overall economic growth and poverty reduction, improving food security and conserving natural resources (Ingco and Nash, 24) especially in South Asian countries where rural poverty is rampant (Table 1). Enhancing agricultural growth in developing countries requires integration with the world economy, provided the world market prices are not distorted. The ratio of trade to GDP increased substantially in Europe and Central Asia as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 199s (Figure 1). The growth in this ratio is comparatively less in poor regions of the world including South Asia. It is therefore suggested that the development framework for agriculture should ensure that economic policies are not biased against primary production and export, trade policies in developed countries are not biased against developing countries and public and private investments in infrastructure, technical development and credit are needed for modernising production and improving competitiveness (Ingco and Nash, 24). While economic policies, investments, technical development and credit are within the policy-making space of each individual country, trade policies of developed countries are exogenous to developing countries, hence the need for a multilateral system like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to minimise any adverse impact on the latter. 2. GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE AND AGRICULTURE As agriculture was treated differently in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rules to allow for differences in national policies and programmes designed A one percent increase in agricultural per capita GDP creates a 1.61 percent increase in the per capita incomes of the poorest 2 percent of the population in 35 representative countries. TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 41

2 TABLE 1 Role of Agriculture in Developing Countries by Region Region Agricultural value added (percent of total GDP) Rural population (percent of total) East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North America South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Not Available Source: World Bank 22b. FIGURE 1 Trade (Exports plus imports) as Share of GDP (real) Developing Region EAP ECA LAC SSA MENA SA Ratio Note: EAP= East Asia and Pacific; ECA= Europe and Central Asia; LAC= Latin America and the Caribbean; SSA= Sub Saharan Africa; MENA= Middle East and North Africa; and SA= South Asia. Source: World Bank to protect this sector. The trade policies of developed countries paid no attention to their impact on the developing countries. Although in the 195s and 196s the developed countries policies worked reasonably well, a number of events in the 197s and 198s led to an alarming increase in the budget support, many of which were disruptive to other countries trade in agriculture (Hathaway, 1987). The extent of support to agriculture being huge and pervasive in many countries, 1 the Agreement on Agriculture was included in the Uruguay Round. Subsidy is a key aspect in two of the three pillars of the Agreement on Agriculture, domestic support and export subsidy, and has a significant impact on the third, market access pillar. The agreement aimed first at containing the amount of subsidies and tariffs, and then reducing their levels. The extent of reduction commitment specified in the AoA still left the support level quite high at the end of the implementation period. Also, Peace Clause was included in the agreement to protect countries using subsidies complying with the Agreement from being challenged under other WTO agreements. Global agriculture and trade policy reforms, so far, have failed to provide the liberalisation and technical support that developing countries had expected from the Uruguay Round Agreements (Ingco and Nash, 24). Consequently, the trade policies of the developed countries continue to impact developing countries and affect livelihood opportunities of farmers in many countries. In this paper we examine the extent of subsidies and support to agriculture provided by developed and developing countries, crop and product-specific production, export subsidies, plus the effects of these subsidies on South Asia s agriculture, food security and livelihood. 42 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

3 3. THE URUGUAY ROUND AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE In the Uruguay Round, a separate Agreement on Agriculture was reached after a number of compromises, including exceptions on the basic principles of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and with considerable ambiguity in many provisions. The main components of the agreement are market access, domestic support and export competition. The market access component required conversion of all forms of import restrictions, other than those in place for health, safety and security reasons, into tariffs (tariffication) and members committed not to raise tariffs above the bound level. 1 This tariff-only situation involved converting non-tariff measures into tariffs using the price gap (difference between domestic and world market prices) method. The developing countries could bind tariffs at arbitrary levels. The market access component required that established tariffs be reduced. Developed countries had to reduce tariffs by an average of 36 percent and a minimum of 15 percent per product over six years and developing countries by an average of 2 percent and a minimum of 1 percent over ten years. As these were simple averages and reduction commitments were based on average cuts rather than cuts in average tariff, countries could fulfill their commitments without significant reduction. In order to address concerns about sudden surge in import volumes or fall in prices of imports, special agricultural safeguards (SSG) could be applied. The SSG is available only to 39 WTO members that undertook tariffication and reserved the right to exercise it. Giving special treatment to certain products such as rice, some countries like Japan, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines acceded to minimum import commitment. Some countries also used fixed charges rather than ad valorem duties and some introduced a combination of both. Tariff peaks more than 15 percent or three times the average nominal tariff and tariff escalation (higher tariffs on processed products) persist in many countries. For example, tariff escalates from 18 percent on fresh grapes to 215 percent on applied tariff of grape juice (Ingco and Nash, 24). In many cases tariff rate quotas are used to implement market access commitments that allow imports up to certain volumes at low tariff rates and restrains the volume at high tariff rates. However, there is not enough clarity in the rules regarding distribution of these quotas. A number of different types of subsidies are provided to agriculture by WTO membercountries, with varied impact on trade. In some countries extensive use of productionrelated subsidies, such as price support, leads to significant surplus in production. Exporting this excess production requires export subsidies. Subsidised production reduced the imports and also led to more subsidies distorting international trade. Depending on the extent of distortion in trade, subsidies were grouped into boxes using the traffic signal approach. Export subsidies, prohibited for industrial products, were treated separately and therefore the Red Box disappeared. An Amber Box included subsidies that had to slow down; a Green Box for non trade-distorting subsidies were created along with a Blue Box, covering measures that are less trade-distorting than the Amber Box. Such direct payment to producers under the production-limiting programmes are exempt from reductions commitments. AMBER BOX Amber Box subsidies, expressed in terms of Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS) include both product-specific and non-product specific subsidies. AMS consists of subsidies provided over and above the de minimis level A number of different types of subsidies are provided to agriculture by WTO member-countries, with varied impact on trade. In some countries, extensive use of productionrelated subsidies, such as price support, leads to significant surplus in production. 1 Exceptions to tariff only border measure includes balance of payment difficulties, general safeguards, antidumping action apart from health and safety and national security reasons. TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 43

4 Export subsidies are considered highly trade distorting and amplifying world market price variations. of five percent (ten percent for a developing country) of the total value of agricultural production. Countries with support levels with in the de minimis during the base period cannot exceed this level. The AMS is calculated for product specific and nonproduct-specific support. At the productspecific level the support exceeding de minimis level is included in AMS. For the non-product specific component, support level is compared with the total value of agricultural product and the amount exceeding the de minimis level is considered as the current total AMS. The AMS calculated using the base period has to be reduced by 2 percent by 2 for developed countries and 13.3 percent by 24 for developing countries. Investment in subsidies in developing countries, input subsidies available to low income and resource-poor producers and subsidies to encourage diversification away from illicit narcotics production are excluded from AMS calculation. GREEN BOX A number of support measures listed in Annexure 2 are exempted from any reduction commitment. These public-funded government programmes should have no or at the most a minimal trade-distorting effect. They include expenditure on research, training and inspection services, public stockholding for food security and domestic food aid programmes, and infrastructure services such as electricity, transport, irrigation, dams and drainage and environmental programmes. Direct payments not linked to current production levels and made for non production, income support, insurance, disaster relief, structural adjustments, as a part of environmental program and regional assistance are included in this box. Decoupled payments made based on production at some fixed time prior to the base period ( ) and not on current prices, current production or other factors of production are included in this box. BLUE BOX This includes payment under the production limiting programme based on fixed areas, crops yields or livestock numbers or a variable payment up to 85 percent of the base level production. Trade-distorting effect of the Blue Box depends on the way it is designed. EXPORT SUBSIDIES Export subsidies are considered highly trade distorting and amplifying world market price variations. Under the AoA, the 25 member countries providing export subsidies during the base period agreed for reduction commitment while others not providing the same will not use it. The members could also use subsidies provided in 1992 as base level if that is higher. The Agreement required reduction of export subsidies by 36 percent (24 percent for developing countries) in value terms and 21 percent (14 percent for developing countries) by volume during 1995 to 2. Developing countries can provide subsidies aimed at reducing cost of marketing including internal and external transport, handling and processing costs during AoA implementation period. Carry over of export subsidies or exceeding subsidy levels up to three percent in value terms and 1.75 percent in volume terms on an annual basis were allowed during 1996 and The Agreement also required that an exporting country must show that any exports above its commitment levels receive no export subsidies and food aid comply with FAOs guidelines and are not to be tied directly or indirectly to commercial exports of agricultural products to recipient countries. DUE RESTRAINT (PEACE CLAUSE) In the run-up to the Cancun Ministerial in September 23, some countries wanted the peace clause to be extended so that they could enjoy some degree of legal security, ensuring that they would not be challenged so long as they comply with their commitments 44 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

5 on domestic support and export subsidies under the Agriculture Agreement. Some others wanted it to lapse as part of their overall objective to see agriculture brought under general WTO disciplines dealing with governments ability to take action against subsidies. Yet others had proposed variants such as Green Box domestic supports freed from the possibility of countervailing action under the Subsidies Agreement as proposed by Canada. India proposed that such security be retained but only for developing countries, so that some subsidies are free from the possibility of countervailing duty. The domestic support measures, also known as Green Box measures, that are considered either not or least trade distorting, were largely exempt from legal actions during the peace period. All other domestic support (Amber and Blue Box) measures conforming to the subsidy reduction commitments are provided reduced protection from actionability. These measures could be subject to countervailing duties although members were advised to exercise due restraint in initiating such actions. The WTO dispute settlement actions could be initiated based on the subsidy disciplines of GATT 1994 Article XVI:1 or Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM) Agreement Articles 5 and 6, or based on a no-violation nullification or impairment claim, provided that the levels of subsidies did not exceed those of marketing year Export subsidy measures had the same level of protection as Amber and Blue Box measures as far as the countervailing duties are concerned, but action under (SCM) Articles 5 & 6 and subsidy disciplines of GATT 1994 could not be taken. The agricultural export subsidies were also exempt from actions based on Article 3 of the SCM Agreement, which generally prohibits export subsidies. While the Peace Clause did not bar non-violation, nullification or impairment cases against export subsidies, such a claim is very difficult to defend in practice (Steinberg and Josling, 23). The three substantive agreements relevant to the analysis of the Peace Clause GATT 1994, Agreement on Agriculture and SCM Agreement are to be read cumulatively as a single undertaking. NEED FOR DIFFERENTIAL AND SPECIAL TREATMENT The developed countries need to take into account the particular needs and conditions of developing countries in the implementation of market access commitment and provide a longer implementation period. Many developing countries opted for bound tariffs. Several issues are identified with the interpretation and implementation of domestic support. Measurement of AMS had attracted considerable attention. In the case of product-specific subsidies, a fixed base world reference price is used which does not represent the actual world market price. Some countries did not report the domestic reference price (administered price), but kept border protection. Quantity used for calculation of AMS also varied. Some members used production whereas others used exports. Baseline AMS also includes Blue Box support but reduction commitments are not applied to Blue Box. The AMS therefore is a misleading indicator of domestic support, penalising some countries when policy reforms are undertaken and favouring others when they are not, depending on how programmes are designed (De Gorter et al., 24). The AMS has also been least binding for many countries because of an extremely high base period ( ) support. Base period support was high because of low world prices and inclusion of Blue Box support. Green Box payments are based on historical entitlements but require land to be kept in agricultural use. This encourages higher production. Green Box payment can also reduce production risk and remove input market constraints (De Gorter et al 24). Payments for reducing the negative impacts on the environment and for providing social amenities such as rural landscape can provide disguised protection. Hence a major challenge in reforming domestic support is The developed countries need to take into account the particular needs and conditions of developing countries in the implementation of market access commitment and provide a longer implementation period. TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 45

6 Since the implementation of the AoA in 1995, the total support to agriculture in OECD countries has shown an overall upward trend. to address the ambiguity in the definition and measurement of agricultural support. While certain exemptions are provided for developing countries, the AoA does not provide any specific criteria for determining a country s level of development. The baseline for export subsidy reduction could be calculated on the basis of on an average level applied by the countries either during or during This helped countries in front loading the export subsidies levels. Rollover of the unused export subsidy from one year to another during the implementation period was also allowed. The AoA further permits countries to aggregate products within a commodity group. These flexibilities allowed in the Agreement resulted in a commitment far below the binding limits. 4. EXTENT OF SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURE DOMESTIC SUPPORT IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Industrialised countries account for 88 percent of the total domestic support payments (Hoekman et al., 22). The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membercountries are the primary users, especially the European Union (EU), Japan and the US (Table 2). Details of components of the domestic support for major countries are provided in Annexure 1. Switzerland and Norway are the other developed countries providing substantial support to agriculture. Among the developing countries Korea provided substantial support, followed by Brazil during Brazil provides mainly Green Box support, the level of which declined in 1996 as compared to In 1999, total support to agriculture reached an estimated US$ 356 billion, or 1.4 percent of GDP for the OECD countries (Braun, 22). The level of support to farmers in OECD has not changed since 2. Despite some major policy initiatives in 22, there were no notable changes in the main policy instruments in most countries. Support to farmers Producer Support Estimate (PSE) in OECD countries reached US$ 235 billion (EUR 249 million) in 22, which is approximately the same level as in This support represented 31 percent of total farm receipts (percent PSE) in the OECD countries (Figure 2), the same as in 21 (OECD, 23). During 1986 to 1995 the PSE for OECD countries showed an overall declining trend. Since the implementation of the AoA in 1995, the total support to agriculture in OECD countries has shown an overall upward trend. Prices received by OECD farmers in 22 were, on an average, 31 percent above world prices (3 percent in 21). The Total Support Estimate (TSE) amounted to US$ 318 billion (Euro 338 billion) in 22 (OECD, 23), about threefourth of which went to producers while 17 percent went to general services sectorwide policies and institutional services such as research, education, inspection, control, and marketing. The TSEs for many countries are greater than one percent of their GDP (Figure 3). Only Australia and New Zealand have less than one percent of the GDP support to agriculture in OECD. Countries of the EU, Japan, Iceland, Korea, Norway and Switzerland have much higher PSEs even within the OECD countries (Figure 3). Farm supports provide more than 3 percent of the farm receipt in these countries. Only in the case of Australia and New Zealand is the PSE less than ten percent of the value of the gross farm receipts. Production-linked support is still dominant in the OECD countries. The share of market price support in the PSEs continued to decline after the implementation of AoA (Figure 4). However, it still constitutes nearly 62 percent of the PSEs. The share of payments 2 Producer support is payment measures intended to enhance farm incomes, whereas total support is a measure of all transfers from taxpayers and consumers, regardless of objectives and impact (De Gorter et al 24). 46 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

7 TABLE 2 Total Domestic Support Notifications to WTO by Income Country Group ($ Million) Country Group Green Box Domestic Support Total Industrial Countries Of which: Canada EU (15) Japan Norway Switzerland US Developing Countries Of which: Brazil Colombia Israel Korea Poland South Africa Thailand Venezuela Least Developed Countries All Countries As percent of total share Industrial Countries (23) Developing Countries (81) Least Developed Countries (3) Source: Hoekman et al (22) FIGURE 2 Producer Support Estimate (percent PSE), Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPCp) and Producer Nominal Assistance Coefficient (NACp) for OECD Countries %PSE %PSE P p:provisional. Source: OECD PSECSE database, 23 Reproduced from OECD, 23 NACp NPCp NPC/NAC TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 47

8 FIGURE 3 Total Support Estimate by Country Korea Turkey Hungary (I) Switzerland Iceland Slovakia (I) Czech Republic (I) Norway Mexico Japan Poland (I) European Union OECD (2) US Canada Australia New Zealand (Percent of GDP) Source: OECD PSE/CSE database, 23; Reproduced from OECD % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% based on outputs has increased slightly and the share of payments based on area planted/ animal numbers has remained at more or less the same level. There is increase in the share of payments based on historical entitlements. There is no significant change in the share of payments based on input use and input constraints. The share of output-based support (market price support and output payments) and input subsidies remained at 76 percent of producer support in 22 (Figure 5). These measures are among the most production and trade distorting, and the least effective in transferring income to farmers or in targeting the provision of environmental benefits. The OECD countries on an average had 64.5 percent of the total producer support estimate in the form of border protection (Table 3) during Output and input use payments constituted another 15 percent of the PSE. Japan and Korea provided more than 9 percent of their support in the form of border protection. The US provided 36 percent of the PSE as border protection FIGURE 4 Producer Support Estimate by Country (Percent of value of gross farm receipts) 9% 8% 7% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Switzerland Norway Korea Iceland Japan European Union OECD (2) Hungary (I) Czech Republic (I) Mexico US Slovakia (I) Canada Turkey Poland (I) Australia New Zealand Source: OECD PSE/CSE database, 23; Reproduced from OECD SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

9 and about one-third as output and input use. Payments based on area planted/animal numbers were mainly provided in the EU. The US is the major provider of payments based on historical entitlements. Composition of domestic support reveals that in the EU the total AMS was 55 percent, Blue Box 23 percent and Green Box 22 percent (Table 4). In the US Green Box subsidy accounts for 83 percent of the domestic support and only 12 percent is in total AMS. In Japan the share of total AMS is 48 percent and that of Green Box is 51 percent. Korea provides a large part of its domestic support in the form of Green Box measures. Details of composition of domestic support are given in Annexure 1. The decoupled income payments have increased substantially since The US provides bulk of this income support. FIGURE 5 Composition of Producer Support Estimate for the OECD 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % p: provisional. Source: OECD PSE/CSE database, 23; Reproduced from OECD p Others Payments based on input constraints Payments based on input use Payments based on historical entitlements Payments based on area planted/animal numbers Payments based on output Market price support Market price support 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % TABLE 3 Agriculture support in OECD Countries, US$ Millions ( Averages) Countries Total support estimate Total producer support estimate Border protection percent Border protection Output and Input use Payments based on Area planted/ Animal numbers Historical Entitlements Others Australia Canada Czech Republic EU Hungary Iceland Japan Korea Republic Mexico Norway New Zealand Poland Slovak Republic Switzerland Turkey US Total OECD Source: OECD Monitoring Report 22. Reproduced from Gorter et al. (24). TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 49

10 The reduction in the most distorting forms of support in some countries has been accompanied by the introduction of other forms of support, which are potentially less TABLE 4 Composition of domestic support by country, (Percent) Country Total AMS Green Box Blue Box de minimis S&D Australia N.A Canada N.A Czech Republic N.A EU N.A Hungary N.A Iceland N.A Japan N.A Korea Republic Mexico New Zealand 1 N.A Norway N.A Poland N.A Slovak republic Switzerland N.A US N.A OECD Source: WTO 22; Reproduced from Gorter et al. (24). distorting. Yet, the magnitude of such support is so high in the EU and the US that they have a similar distortion effect on production and trade (Figure 6). It is clear from Figure 7 that the support levels to agriculture in the EU and US have not come down since the implementation of commitments of UR began in In fact, we observe increasing trend of PSE in both the EU and US. On per ha basis the producer support estimate in the EU is more than 7 and in the US it is around $125 (Figure 9). In both cases there is an upward trend in the producer support estimate. On per farm basis, the support was more than 15, in 21 and in the US it was around $23, (Figure 1). A comparison of the level of protection as measured by the amber box subsidies with the producer support estimates suggests that while amber box commitments have been fully utilised in the recent years, the support levels in other forms have been increasing. There is also wide variation in the levels of support and protection across commodities. Meat, dairy products, cereals and sugar account for 82 percent of all reported nonexempt domestic support (WTO, 23). The main providers of these supports are the EU, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, US and Korea FIGURE 6 WTO Notifications of Domestic Support and Export Subsidies Euro A. European Union B. United States US$ bn LEGEND Green box Blue box Amber box S&D box Export subsidies Note: Amber box includes de minimis level. Source: WTO notifications. 5 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

11 FIGURE 7 Domestic Support as a percent of the Agricultural Output A. European Union US Proposal PSE without MPS Government payments PSE Amber + blue box US Proposal PSE without MPS Government payments B. United States PSE Amber + blue box Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for 21-2 Source: WTO, OECD, USDA-FSA, FAPRI. Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for Source: WTO, OECD, USDA-FSA, FAPRI. FIGURE 8 Comparing Domestic Support Measures Comparing Domestic Support Measures Billions A. European Union Amber box commitment PSE without MPS Gov. Payments PSE Amber + blue box Billions Amber box commitment PSE without MPS Gov. Payments B. United States PSE Amber + blue box Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for 21-2 Source: WTO, OECD, USDA-FSA, FAPRI. Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for Source: WTO, OECD, USDA-FSA, FAPRI. FIGURE 9 Domestic Support Per Hectare Euros Domestic Support Per Hectare (US$) A. European Union B. United States PSE Amber + blue box PSE without MPS Government payments PSE Amber + blue box PSE without MPS Government payments Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for 21-2 Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for TACKLING Source: WTO, OECD, AGRICULTURAL European Commission, SUBSIDIES FAPRI, IN FAO. WTO NEGOTIATIONS Source: WTO, OECD, European Commission, FAPRI, FAO. 51

12 FIGURE 1 Domestic Support Per Farmer (Euros) Domestic Support Per Farmer (US$) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, A. European Union B. United States 3, Years PSE Amber + blue box PSE without MPS Government payments 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Years PSE Amber + blue box PSE without MPS Government payments Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for 21-2 Source: WTO, OECD, European Commission, FAPRI, FAO. Note: Amber box includes de minimis. Forecasts for Source: WTO, OECD, European Commission, FAPRI, FAO. FIGURE 11 Producer Support Estimate by Commodity Rice Sugar Milk Other grains Wheat Sheepmeat Beef and Veal All commodities Maize Other Commodities Oilseeds Pigmeat Poultry Eggs Wool (Table 5). From the 21 level, support to producers in 22 increased for sugar, mil and wool, while it decreased for maize, rice and oilseeds (OECD, 23). Compared to the reference period , there is only a marginal reduction in the support levels to the major commodities (Figure 11). Annual data for the US and the EU suggest that there is no clear declining trend of support for wheat, sugar and rice (Table 6). The support as a percentage of gross farm receipts is more than 35 percent in the case of rice, sugar, milk, coarse grains and wheat. In the case of rice the support level is around 8 percent and has remained unchanged since the reference period. The commodity-wise break-up of different types of support is given in Table 7. For wheat and coarse grains, the major share of support is provided in the form of payments based on area planted/animal numbers, historical entitlements and inputs. For rice, the support is mainly in terms of market price support while in the case of oilseeds, support provided is based on output and based on area planted /animal numbers. Details of types of payment for major countries are provided in Annexure 3 & 5. The extent of use of value and volume commitments suggests considerable room for increasing the support levels. % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Source: OECD PSE/CSE database, SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

13 TABLE 5 Support as a share (percent) of value of production of different products in different countries Wheat Rice Coarse grains Oilseeds Refined sugar Milk Beef & sheep Other meat (pigs, etc.) Austrialia Canada EU with blue box Iceland Japan with blue box Korea Mexico Norway with blue box New Zealand Poland Switzerland US Source: Ibid. TABLE 6 Producer Support Estimate (US$ million) p Wheat EU 8,673 8,982 11,424 9,17 8,278 9,498 US 4,81 3,993 5,725 5,388 3,98 2,611 Sugar EU 3,179 2,172 3,5 2,49 1,798 2,38 US 1,153 1,223 1,529 1,24 1,287 1,176 Rice EU US Source: Ibid. TABLE 7 Type of support as a percentage of total Support for different Commodities in OECD Countries Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Oil seeds Other Commodities Total G&O Total (percent) OECD Market price support Based on output Based on area planted/ Animal numbers Based on historical entitlements Based on inputs* Total** *This combines support based upon input use and upon input constraints. ** The total includes support based on overall farm income and miscellaneous payments Source: Short and Gorter (24) TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 53

14 EXPORT COMPETITION Out of the US$ 1 billion export subsidy notified by members between 1995 and 1998, developed countries account for more than 9 percent of the total (Annexure 4). The levels of export subsidies have reduced during 2, but remain substantial (Figure 9). Moreover, reduction in export subsidies by more than 5 percent in 2 does not indicate that export subsidies will be lower in the future, as the agricultural prices during that year went up as compared to the previous years. Further, the ceiling on export subsidies for the EU and US is much higher than the levels of export subsidies actually utilized and were Euro 94 million and US$ 6 million in 2 (Gorter et al, 22). Even in 1998, when the EU paid a higher level of export subsidies, it accounted for just 29.5 percent in terms of value and 83.3 percent in terms of volume of WTO commitments for wheat (Elbehri, 1999). These export subsidies continue to distort world markets (World Bank, 23). Therefore, smaller reductions in ceilings such as the one used in the Uruguay Round will still leave the current level of subsidies intact and continue to distort world markets. Additional distortions also occur due to the subsidy elements in export credits and export restrictions, which are not accounted for in the traditional measures of export subsidies. Even though export subsidies may have reduced over a period of time, their beneficial effect is mitigated by the fact that domestic support has been increasing, thus providing effective export subsidies (World Bank, 23). For example, currently cotton is not classified as receiving export subsidies. Its domestic and export prices in the US and EU are the same, which are less than half the cost of production (World Bank, 23). This gap, which exists for other commodities as well, is made up for by the use of domestic support. In the case of cotton, the US accounts for approximately one half of the world s total production subsidies for cotton. Any reduction in export subsidies is merely a formality, and any real attempts to remove the distortions in agricultural trade must reduce domestic support as well. Wheat and flour, coarse grains, sugar, rice, dairy products, meat, eggs, wine and fruits and vegetables received substantial export subsidy (Table 8) in OECD countries. Exports subsidy equivalents are more than 1 percent for rice, sugar and pigmeat in the EU. Norway provides heavy export subsidy equivalents for meat and eggs. Front loading, rollover and aggregation within a commodity group have provided FIGURE 12 Export Subsidies Subsidies in US$ Mn Years European Union United States Switzerland Norway Rest of World Total Source: Economic Research Service (ERS) calculations from WTO export subsidy notifications 54 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

15 TABLE 8 Percentage of Total Volume Receiving Export Subsidies Country All OECD All OECD All OECD All OECD Wheat & flour Coarse grains Rice Oilseeds Vegetable oil Oil cakes Sugar Butter & butter oil Milk powder Cheese Other milk products Beef Pig meat Poultry meat Sheep meat Live animals Eggs N.A Wine Fruits & vegetables N.A N.A N.A Tobacco Cotton Incorporated products Other Agril. Products Source: Ruiz, 2. TABLE 9 Export Subsidy Equivalents (ESEs) (Percent) Member Commodity Base European Union Wheat & wheat flour European Union Coarse grains (barley) European Union Rice European Union Sugar European Union Butter & butter oil European Union Skim milk powder European Union Cheese European Union Beef European Union Pig meat European Union Poultry meat European Union Eggs Hungary Pig meat Hungary Sheep meat Hungary Poultry Norway Beef Norway Pig meat Norway Sheep meat Norway Eggs Norway Butter Norway Cheese US Butter & butter oil US Skim milk powder US Cheese Source: Ruiz, 2. TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 55

16 considerable flexibility to use export subsidies. Therefore reduction commitments have so far been ineffective. Front loading helped to almost double the commitments. The US was able to increase its subsidy commitments from US$ 371 million to US$ 1575 million (396 percent). SUPPORT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INCLUDING INDIA AND PAKISTAN The developing countries, excluding South Korea and transition economies such as Poland, account for only 1 percent of the domestic support payment. The major users of domestic support among the developing countries are Brazil, Thailand, Venezuela, South Africa, Israel and Colombia. The least developed countries for negligible share in the total domestic support. Argentina, Israel, South Korea, South Africa and Tunisia are close to 8 percent of their respective ceilings on domestic support. Brazil provides mainly the Green Box type support, less than 1 percent of the support being Amber Box type. Thailand and Colombia provide more Green Box support than domestic support. The shares of Green Box type and domestic support are more or less equal in the case of South Africa and Israel. Nearly one-third of the total support in South Korea is domestic support. Venezuela provides more domestic support than Green Box support. India provides product specific domestic support in the form of Minimum Support Price. As the base period ( ) international prices were higher than the domestic prices for all commodities except sugarcane and tobacco, the product-specific Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) is essentially negative for India (Table 1). The total nonproduct-specific support provided for fertilisers, water, seeds, credit and electricity during the reference period is Rs 45.8 billion (Mehta, 23). This is less than the de minimis level, therefore there is no reduction commitment under the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). Under Article 6.2 of AoA, India is also entitled to exclude input subsidies given to low-income and resourcepoor farmers. Taking this into account, the AMS works out to be less than 3 percent of the value of the domestic agricultural output. Figure 13 also shows that the PSE is negative in India. TABLE 1 Aggregate Measure of Support for Selected Commodities with Fixed Reference Prices Year Product-specific AMS Non-Product-specific AMS AMS (as percent of the value of production of commodities covered) Source: Gulati and Narayanan, SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

17 FIGURE 13 PSE Level in India PSEs (as % of production of selected commodities) The share of developing countries in the export subsidy has been less than five percent in most years. In India and Pakistan, export subsidy is in the form of exemption of export profit from income tax and subsidies on cost of freight on export shipments of certain products like fruits, vegetables and floriculture products. The international transport subsidy provided has been less than US$ 4 million and has been on a declining trend in recent years in both countries (Table 11). The subsidy provided by Pakistan is also low. By the subsidy constituted only 1.45 percent of the agricultural GDP (Table 12). Source: Gulati and Narayanan, 23. TABLE 11 Export Subsidies Provided by South Asian Countries (US$ million) Country India Amount India Commodities fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, plants & flowers, cardamom fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, plants & flowers fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, plants & flowers, poultry products fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, plants & flowers, poultry products Pakistan Amount fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, plants & flowers, poultry products Pakistan Commodities fresh fruit, fresh vegetables fresh fruit, fresh vegetables fresh fishery products, fruits and vegetables fresh fruits, fresh vegetables potatoes, citrus (kinoo) Source: WTO, 22. TABLE 12 Food Subsidy and Expenditure in Real Terms in Pakistan (Rs million) Year Total subsidy Total current Expenditure Subsidy as percent Current Expenditure Subsidy as percent Agriculture GDP N.A 231 N.A N.A N.A 2572 N.A N.A Source: Rashid Faruqee, TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 57

18 5. EFFECT OF SUBSIDIES ON SOUTH ASIA The consequence of subsidy elimination for a commodity would be to reduce supply, thereby increasing the world price of that commodity. However, the magnitude of the price increase depends upon the extent of subsidised production and exports relative to the total volume of trade. In the EU and US, the level of support remains very high for wheat, sugar and rice. As compared to the base period of , the total PSE to wheat in the EU has gone up. For sugar, the amount of subsidy has gone down only marginally. Overall, the level of support remains very high. Most of the commodities that receive the highest level of subsidies in the EU or US are also very important export commodities (e.g. sugar and cotton) in the world market. The US and EU are among the top five net exporters of these commodities (Table 13). According to World Trade Report 23, the least developed countries are disproportionately affected by the domestic support and the extent of exports of countries such as Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Malawi, Mali, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe affected by domestic support is between 6 percent and 8 percent (WTO, 23). Under the existing US policy, the cost of producing major crops has been much higher than the prices realised for them. In the year 21, market prices were 23 percent below the cost of production for corn, 48 percent for wheat, 32 percent for soybean 52 percent for cotton, and 45 percent for rice (Ray et al., 23). Even with the subsidies added to market income, returns for wheat, soybean, and cotton were still well below the cost of production (19 percent for wheat, 12 percent for soybean, and 27 percent for cotton). The low US prices exert a downward pressure on world commodity prices. Low prices affect TABLE 13 Top Net Exporters for Selected Commodities Wheat (million metric tonnes) US Canada EU Australia Argentina Sugar (1 metric tonnes) Brazil Australia Thailand Cuba EU Cotton (1 metric tonnes) US Uzbekistan Africa Argentina Australia Source: 58 SOUTH ASIAN YEARBOOK OF TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 25

19 every other country, especially those driven by trade liberalisation to reduce domestic and border protections for their agricultural sectors. The US is one of the few major players in the oligopolistic world markets, which is why low US prices consistently drive down world prices (Ray et al., 23). As an acknowledged price leader in several key commodities and a major agricultural exporter, the US has played a dominant role in agricultural trade throughout much of the past 5 years, particularly in corn, wheat, cotton and oilseeds. The persistent low corn, wheat and cotton prices in the US are indicative of world price trends for major grains, rice, and cotton. Ray et al. (23) point out that observation of the behaviour of corn and rice is enough to conclude that the US impacts world prices, whether or not it is dominant by volume in a particular commodity. They have found a strong correlation between the US prices and world prices for the years for corn and for the years for rice. Low US prices also displace exports and production from other countries. This affects all commodities somewhat but is most visible in cotton and rice. India and Pakistan have a considerable stake in rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. They do have surpluses in these commodities and often export them. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal have an interest in rice as it is their major crop. Further analysis have been done for these commodities using Indian situation to examine the impact of subsidies. Figures 14 to 17 illustrate the share of the US, EU and India in world production and exports for four major commodities: wheat, rice cotton and sugar. As far as wheat is concerned, the EU s share has been growing over a period, and the US and EU share combined, accounts for over 25 percent of the world production of wheat (See also Annexure 5 9). The EU s share in total world exports of wheat has also been on the rise, and in 22 the US and the EU together accounted for over 35 percent of total world exports. High levels of domestic support and also the continuing export subsidies have aided these countries to achieve dominant positions in world production and exports. A high level of domestic support leads to overproduction, hence export subsidies are used to dispose of this surplus in the international market, at prices much lower than those in the domestic market. This exerts a downward pressure on world prices. In the case of cotton, high subsidies given to farmers have enabled the US to maintain its share in the total world production (Figure 15A). In the case of rice too, the US has been able to maintain its share in production and exports through subsidies. The EU and US have consistently maintained their share in world sugar production (Figure 16A) and particularly the EU is the leading exporter of sugar (Figure 16B). The Economic Research Service (ERS) at the US Department of Agriculture has reported (21) that the full elimination of global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of US$ 56 billion. More importantly, elimination of agricultural trade and domestic policy distortions could raise world agricultural prices by about 12 percent. The adverse effect of support has been FIGURE 14A World Wheat Production & Shares of India, US and EU Percentage Year Remaining World Share (Percent) India Share (Percent) Source: Wheat Year Book 23, Economic Research Service, USDA. EU Share (Percent) US Share (Percent) TACKLING AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN WTO NEGOTIATIONS 59

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