Livestock and Feedgrain Outlook

Transcription

1 Livestock and Feedgrain Outlook 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium James G. Robb Director, LMIC Website: November 28-30, US Land Grant Universities: USDA Data Sources -- NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS Forecasts By -- LMIC 7 USDA Agencies: AMS (Market News), APIS, ERS, GIPSA (Packers & Stock.), NASS, FAS, and WAOB 12 Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Research Institute CoBank TCFA TCU NWFCS DLR Topics: Outlook and Economic Drivers. Cattle Prices and LMIC s Forecasts Through 2019 Corn Price Outlook Total U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Production Dimensions of Demand and The Marketing Chain Beef International Trade Cattle -- Cyclical Aspects and Returns Marketing, Managing, and Financing Some Really Long Term Stuff SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 0-0 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Data Source: USDA-AMS SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-% Lean, Weekly Cheyenne, Wyo. 1

2 Pounds STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly $ Per Cwt AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves 0-0lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Year S. Plains Quarter 5-0# ($/Cwt) AVERAGE CALF PRICES lb Steer Calves, Southern Plains $ Per Cwt I II III IV Year I II 1.49 III IV b Year I c II III IV Year I -158 II Annual Average III Data IV USDA-AMS, and Forecasts by LMIC Source: Compiled Year th Quarter Domestic Consumer Demand and... Index Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = Pounds US BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Cheyenne, Wyo. 2

3 Index Value 20 0 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 19= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC $ Per 0 lbs LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC $ Per 0 lbs CUTOUT TO RETAIL BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Pork, Chicken, Etc. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Mil. Pounds US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Cheyenne, Wyo. 3

4 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION Mil. Pounds US BROILER EXPORTS RTC Weight, Monthly TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION 2018 Annual Per Person Dis Lb. Retail. Largest Since 7 Beef Exports and Imports 41/57 = 72% since19 Mil. Pounds 275 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Cheyenne, Wyo. 4

5 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Feedgrains -- Corn Bil. Bushels US CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Exports Stocks Bil. Bushels US TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE Crop Year Supply Price $ Per Bushel Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Bu. Per Acre NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD Crop Year Cattle 155 Bu Per Acre $4./Bu Cheyenne, Wyo. 5

6 Mil. Head TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January Data Source: USDA-NASS Mil. Head CALF CROP July Es`mates, U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS 2017 = 36.3 Million Head +3.5 Percent Thou. Head BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Mil. Head JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC Annual Per Person Dis Lb. Retail. Largest Since 2010 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION 2017 = 26.2 Billion 2018 = 27.3 Billion 2019 = 27.9 Billion Cheyenne, Wyo. 6

7 $ Per Cow 0 0 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual 175 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cadle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: October Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Economic Environment and Managing. Cents Per Pound RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly 6 Cattle Feeding One of Best Years Ever in 2014, 0 to Worst in 2015, to Great First 8 Months of Cyclically Lower Annual Average Cattle Prices 4 throughout Marketing Calves Against Larger Supplies 3 Sequential Decision-Making Annual Marketing Plan Tied To Monthly Cash Flow Statement What If????? Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Pork Composite Broiler All Fresh Beef Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS Product Markets In Transition: Segmentation Subdivision Separation Breakdown Differentiation Thank You! Cheyenne, Wyo. 7