Developing Value Chains in Southern Africa

Transcription

1 Developing Value Chains in Southern Africa John Purchase GBI Conference 18 April 2013

2 Agribusiness & Value Chains Hot Topic McKinsey & Company Lions on the Move: The Progress & Potential of African economies

3 Global food jungle: Survival of the smartest

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5 Value Chain Approach Consumers Policy & Legislation environment Output Markets - Wholesale - Retail Service providers - Processing - Storage - Manufacturing - Packaging Primary agriculture - Smallholders - Commercial Input service providers - Finance & Insurance - Seed, Fert s, Agro-chemicals, etc. - Livestock inputs Policy & Legislation environment

6 BRAZILIAN BEEF PRODUCTIVE CHAIN Sum of Sales of the Various Links: US$ billion in 2010 Livestock (millions of heads): Slaughtering Capacity (heads/day): Cattle Slaughtered (millions of heads): 42.8 BEFORE FARMS US$ 11.4 billions Genetics US$ 1,313.9 Mineral Supplements US$ 1,307.3 Feed Supplements US$ Vitamins & Additives US$ 23.1 Animal Health US$ Pesticides US$ 1,084.2 Fertilizers US$ Forage Seed US$ Agricultural Lime US$ Diesel Oil US$ 3,757.2 Fencing & Posts US$ 1,684.2 Tractors & Implements US$ SISBOV Ear tags US$ 3.4 US$ millions FARMS US$ 31.4 bilhons Animals sent to slaughter US$ 30,770.4 millions US$ millions Finished Steer US$ 19,646.0 Cows US$ 7,162.3 Young bulls US$ 3,953.5 Veal US$ 8.6 Exports of Live Cattle US$ millions INDUSTRIAL INPUTS US$ 1.7 billions Packaging US$ Eletricity US$ Maintenance Parts & Equipment US$ Fuel Oil for Boilers US$ 83.2 Chemicals for Cleaning US$ 41.9 Refrigerant Gas US$ 41.4 Water Filters US$ 37.1 PPE US$ 27.4 Lubricants US$ 8.9 US$ millions SLAUGHTERHOUSES US$ 42.0 billions Domestic Sales: 37.2 Exports: 4.8 Meat US$ billions US$ 35.8 billions US$ billions Domestic Sales: 31.9 Exports: 3.9 Other Products US$ 6.2 billions US$ billions Domestic Sales: 5.2 Exports: 0.9 US$ millions Leather US$ 1,147.6 Offal & Glands US$ 1,110.2 Industrial Meat US$ Feet, Instestine, Stomach, etc US$ Tallow US$ Prepared & Canned Foods US$ Tripe US$ Byproducts for Industry US$ Meat Meal & Bone Meal US$ Bladder US$ 75.5 Blood Meal US$ 31.3 Trading US$ millions US$ millions Meat: Byproducts: 83.6 Distributors/Wholesalers US$ ,8 millions Meat: 13,976.1 Byproducts: Tanning industry Cosmetic Food Animal Feed Pharmacy Other Industries DISTRIBUTION US$ 57.6 billions Distributors/Wholesalers/Trading Retailers US$ ,6 US$ ,3 US$ millions Exports US$ 1,729.2 millions Food Industry and Food Service Retailers US$ 42,883.3 millions Major Retail Chain Meat: 25,060.7 Byproducts: 1,601.5 Small and midsize retailers Meat: 15,119.0 Byproducts: Slaughterhouses own retail stores Meat: Byproducts: 9.5 Facilitating Agents US$ 23.4 billions US$ millions US$ millions F I N A L C O N S U M E R Facilitating Agents US$ millions Freight and Diesel: 2,252.2 Farm Credit: 17,100.6 Payroll: 3,913.3 Traceability: 23.0 Transport to exports: 59.5 Agregated Tax: 16,531.6 Research: 23.1 Animal Register: 10.0 Figure 3. Brazilian Beef Chain (gross revenue).

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8 E Alexander 8

9 Your Consumer: Most important

10 Global demographics

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14 FAO Food Price Index

15 Supermarket phenomenon Retailers, the Giants of the Chains, and Powerful - Wal-Mart sold 337 billion worth of food from stores in 15 countries in Carrefour & Tesco next. - Concentration (Top 20) down from 23,4% (2003) to 21% (2010) - Private versus retailers labels/brands - Neighbourhood concept: proximity & convenience - Powerful: Information about consumers - Supply chains incredibly important: Internationalisation - Move to Green Economy, Fair Trade, Smallholder procurement, increased convenience, tasting areas, etc. - Shopping experience: Lock-in customers Source: Marcos Fava Neves

16 BRICS to drive Modern Retail growth Forecast Rank Country bn Rank Country bn Rank Country bn 1 US US China China China US Japan Japan India France India Japan India France Russia UK Russia Brazil Germany Brazil France Italy UK UK Russia Germany Germany Mexico Italy Indonesia 167 2,326 2,827 3,681 Note: 2014F is calculated using fixed exchange rates based on the average rates of 2009 from ( to ). Source: IGD Research, December 2009

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18 The Producer: Key link in Value Chain

19 In the Bio Era, everything comes from farms! Modern technology and other advances have made farms a multiproduct and service supplier. Paper Food & Beverag es Feed No. 1: Respect our farmers! Construction & Furniture Shoe & Leather Ind Textiles & Clothing From Farms to Fuel Pharma Medicine Pharma Cosmetics Entertainment / Tourism Source: Marcos Fava Neves Environment Plastics Electricity

20 Our Challenge Today: Produce more with less Cutting edge technology Cutting edge management

21 Efficiency Driven Producer and Agribusiness 10. Research and Innovation 1. Plant Production 2. Animal Production 9. Storage and movement 8. Government Efficiency Driven Agribusiness 3. Land Use and Management 4. Risk Management 7. Logistics 6. Diffusion and knowledge tansfer 5. Waste Management Marcos Fava Neves: The Future of Food Business. World Scientific, 2011

22 Technology Usage at Farm Level

23 Agribusiness as Hub Source: Marcos Fava Neves

24 Look to Consumer: Be demand-driven 70 s-90 s: Mass production, mass marketing 90 s change: globalisation, market deregulation, new technology, information & communication progress, speed of socio-cultural changes, consumerist movement, growth of ethics, and societal inclusion. Era of consumer sovereignty, so be demand-driven Know your consumer, competitor & environment, and have depth analysis and react to changes. Value satisfaction and well-being of buyers Smooth and collaborative networks with suppliers, distributors and service providers Problem-solution based approach

25 Companies becoming more Demand-driven 1 They listen and pay attention. 2 They don t fear being evaluated. 3 They dedicate formal time to thinking. 4 They analyse and exercise macro-environmental changes. 5 They do mental simulations of possible future scenarios. 6 High stakeholders contact. 7 Demand-driven organisations share a sense that they are owned by the consumer. 8 They don t fear to change. 9 Entrepreneurial and innovation behaviour. 10 They also share discipline to make things happen. Source: Marcos Fava Neves

26 Technology Usage at Farm Level

27 How to Organise Supply Chains Sequence of six steps to evaluate the company s integrated supply chain (CISC): 1. Understand the company s integrated supply chain structure. 2. Analyse the market characteristics of the major inputs 3. Diagnosis of each input of company s integrated supply chain. 4. Make a proposal of a governance structure for each input of the integrated supply chain. 5. Building the contract (relationship) 6. Managing the relationship. Source: Marcos Fava Neves

28 Need to develop value chains to create and unlock value As country s GDP per capita grows, so does the importance of its agribusiness sector increase relative to its primary agriculture As primary producer, how do I effectively access the value chain, or add value and integrate my enterprise in a value chain?

29 Status and Trends South Africa

30 Africa Tomorrow $1.4 Trillion Africa s Consumer spending in million households with discretionary income in billion Number of Africans of working age in 2040

31 Africa s Imports and Exports of Agricultural Products (current values)

32 Africa s net Imports of Food Groups (current values)

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34 Corporate farms, family farms and smallholders? Impact of land reform uncertainty Scale of economy and risk management/ mitigation leading to bigger farming units Corporate farming making significant inroads into SA s agricultural production Social sustainability how to incorporate smallholders?

35 Projects for Including the Networks of Smallholders (PINS) 1. Introduction and research problem One of the most important challenges currently facing agribusiness is how to include smallholders in modern integrated food chains in a sustainable way. 2. Objective and method Governments and development agencies need to implement sustainable and integrated agribusiness projects in order to promote the inclusion of smallholders into mainstream agriculture.

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37 Conclusion Major shifts in global food demand Scarcer resources having major impact Efficiency and productivity gains through technology/innovation critical Know your value chain in detail: cutting edge advantage Risks to be managed, but many opportunities!

38 Thank you