Surviving the Global Food Jungle

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1 Surviving the Global Food Jungle GRAIN SA CONGRESS 2013 Bothaville, 06/03/13 Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava Neves Professor Titular de Estratégia, Planejamento e Marketing FEA/USP Markestrat Centro de Pesquisa e Projetos em Marketing e Estratégia da USP 1

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7 BRAZILIAN BEEF PRODUCTIVE CHAIN Sum of Sales of the Various Links: US$ billion in 2010 Livestock (millions of heads): Slaughtering Capacity (heads/day): Cattle Slaughtered (millions of heads): 42.8 BEFORE FARMS US$ 11.4 billions Genetics US$ 1,313.9 Mineral Supplements US$ 1,307.3 Feed Supplements US$ Vitamins & Additives US$ 23.1 Animal Health US$ Pesticides US$ 1,084.2 Fertilizers US$ Forage Seed US$ Agricultural Lime US$ Diesel Oil US$ 3,757.2 Fencing & Posts US$ 1,684.2 Tractors & Implements US$ SISBOV Ear tags US$ 3.4 US$ millions FARMS US$ 31.4 bilhons Animals sent to slaughter US$ 30,770.4 millions US$ millions Finished Steer US$ 19,646.0 Cows US$ 7,162.3 Young bulls US$ 3,953.5 Veal US$ 8.6 Exports of Live Cattle US$ millions INDUSTRIAL INPUTS US$ 1.7 billions Packaging US$ Eletricity US$ Maintenance Parts & Equipment US$ Fuel Oil for Boilers US$ 83.2 Chemicals for Cleaning US$ 41.9 Refrigerant Gas US$ 41.4 Water Filters US$ 37.1 PPE US$ 27.4 Lubricants US$ 8.9 US$ millions SLAUGHTERHOUSES US$ 42.0 billions Domestic Sales: 37.2 Exports: 4.8 Meat US$ billions US$ 35.8 billions US$ billions Domestic Sales: 31.9 Exports: 3.9 Other Products US$ 6.2 billions US$ billions Domestic Sales: 5.2 Exports: 0.9 US$ millions Leather US$ 1,147.6 Offal & Glands US$ 1,110.2 Industrial Meat US$ Feet, Instestine, Stomach, etc US$ Tallow US$ Prepared & Canned Foods US$ Tripe US$ Byproducts for Industry US$ Meat Meal & Bone Meal US$ Bladder US$ 75.5 Blood Meal US$ 31.3 Trading US$ millions US$ millions Meat: Byproducts: 83.6 Distributors/Wholesalers US$ ,8 millions Meat: 13,976.1 Byproducts: Tanning industry Cosmetic Food Animal Feed Pharmacy Other Industries DISTRIBUTION US$ 57.6 billions Distributors/Wholesalers/Trading Retailers US$ ,6 US$ ,3 US$ millions Exports US$ 1,729.2 millions Food Industry and Food Service Retailers US$ 42,883.3 millions Major Retail Chain Meat: 25,060.7 Byproducts: 1,601.5 Small and midsize retailers Meat: 15,119.0 Byproducts: Slaughterhouses own retail stores Meat: Byproducts: 9.5 Facilitating Agents US$ 23.4 billions US$ millions US$ millions F I N A L C O N S U M E R Facilitating Agents US$ millions Freight and Diesel: 2,252.2 Farm Credit: 17,100.6 Payroll: 3,913.3 Traceability: 23.0 Transport to exports: 59.5 Agregated Tax: 16,531.6 Research: 23.1 Animal Register: 10.0 Figure 3. Brazilian Beef Chain (gross revenue). 7

8 A simple FIA Methodology FACTS HAPPEN! Identify the facts that influence the productive aspects and market activities. IMPACTS FOR FARMER Understanding the impact of the events (facts) identified ACTS (FARMER AGENDA) Acting strategically, in order to reduce risks and maximize production Figure 1. Method facts, impacts and acts. Souce: Neves (2011) 8

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35 Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances. 35 Source: DNI Office of Director of National Intelligence,2012

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38 Source: USDA,

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46 The Bio Era Everything is coming from the farm! Paper Food and Beverages Feed Construction and Furniture Fuel Shoe and Leather Industry From Farms to... Pharma Medicine Textiles and Clothing Industry Pharma Cosmetics Entertainme nt/ tourism Electricity Environment Plastics Source - Marcos Fava Neves: The Future of Food Business. World Scientific,

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48 Elaboration.: Prof. Marcos 48

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57 Biomass and Ethanol Moved Engines for Electricity 57

58 Finishing the second part with the global perspective... what will come? Will it be good for SA farmers? 58

59 Growing Demand Agriculture world demand [billion tons] 5.2 4,8 Fuel 4,1 3,5 2.8 Feed Food Fonte: FAO, USDA, ONU, IEA, Syngenta 59

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64 Africa has outperformed Asia in GDP growth... World s ten fastest growing economies Angola 11.1 China 9.5 China 10.5 India 8.2 Myanmar 10.3 Ethiopia 8.1 GDP growth, un weighted annual average % Nigeria 8.9 Mozambique Ethiopia 8.4 Tanzania Kazakhstan 8.2 Vietnam Chad 7.9 Congo Mozambique 7.9 Ghana Cambodia 7.7 Rwanda 7.6 Source: The Economist, IMF Zambia 6.9 Nigeria s 1980s 1990s 2000s * Asian countries African countries 64

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66 Africa represents about 60% of the potentially available cropland in the world... Additional available cropland, Million hectares Others Latin America Brazil Argentina Venezuela Others Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan DRC Angola Zambia Mozambique Central African Republic Tanzania Others 1 Cropland defined as land producing output greater than 40% of maximum yield under rain-fed conditions, excluding forest areas. Source: McKinsey Global Institute 66

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72 - Size, profile and business model can be useful to segment farmers Complexity of doing business + Traditional Farmer Agricultural Business Network and Chain Managers Land Transformers Farmers which agricultural is the main business. Agricultural entrepreneur, generally passed through generations Family ownership and management Average small and medium farming areas Focused on grain production and commercialization. Operation with own machines. Owned or leasing land Has his own processing/ service units Offers logistics services Large scale production: optimized teams that support many farmers Economy of scale (inputs bundle seeds, crop protection, fertilizers, credit, logistics and others) Service providers and contract manager in exchange of an incoming production - Barter Most part of production is located in rented areas, low investment in assets International companies Transform pasture and Cerrado lands in high production fields. Focused on the production of soybeans, corn and cotton. Focused on high production and real state. Company Owned Area (ha) Leased area (ha) Pinesso Scheffer Bom futuro Horita V-Agro Total Company Owned Area (ha) Leased area (ha) Amaggi El Tejar SLC Agrícola Los Grobo N/A Company Owned Area (ha) Leased area (ha) Tiba N/A Brookfield N/A Kobra N/A Total N/A Total Total Owned Area: (ha) Total Leased Area: (ha) Source (citation): Elaborated by Markestrat researchers based on Romangnoli (2012) three categories. Acreage information based on secondary data. 72

73 SLC Agrícola Business

74 VANT AGX Tiriba Envergadura de 3m Peso 4kg + 1,2 kg de carga útil Velocidade de trabalho km/h Autonomia de trabalho minutos 74

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76 Efficiency Driven African Food and Agribusiness 1. Plant Production 8. Government 2. Animal Production 7. Logistics and Infrastructure Efficiency Driven Agribusiness 3. Land Use and Management 6. Difusion and Knowledge Transfer 5. Waste and Risk Management 4. Chain Coordination (Institutions) Marcos Fava Neves: The Future of Food Business. World Scientific,

77 What to take home? FACTS IMPACTS ACTS Identify the facts that influence the productive aspects and market activities. Understanding the impact of the events (facts) identified Acting strategically, in order to reduce risks and maximize production Figure 1. Method facts, impacts and acts. Souce: Neves (2011) 77

78 Thank you! Facebook e LinkedIn (Marcos Fava Nev favaneves@gmail.com Facebook e LinkedIn (Marcos Fava Neves) 78

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