Agricultural Population Growth Marginal as Nonagricultural Population Soars

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1 Population (Millions) Agricultural Population Growth Marginal as Nonagricultural Population Soars Sohpie Wenzlau February 19, 2013 T he global agricultural population defined as individuals dependent on agriculture, hunting, fishing, and forestry for their livelihood accounted for 37.6 percent of the world s total population in 2011, the most recent year for which data are available. 1 This is a decrease of 12 percent from 1980, when the world s agricultural and nonagricultural populations were roughly the same size. 2 Although the agricultural population shrunk as a share of total population between 1980 and 2011, it grew numerically from 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion people during this period, principally in Africa and Asia. 3 (See Figure 1.) Figure 1. Global Agricultural Population, ,500 4,000 3,500 Non-agricultural Population 3,000 2,500 Agricultural Population 2, Worldwatch Institute Source: FAOSTAT vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 1

2 Between 1980 and 2011, the nonagricultural population grew by a staggering 94.4 percent, from 2.2 billion to 4.4 billion people a rate approximately five times greater than that of agricultural population growth. 4 In both cases growth was driven by the massive increase in the world s total population, which more than doubled between 1961 and 2011 from 3.1 billion to 7 billion people. 5 It should be noted that the distinction between these population groups is not the same as the rural-urban divide. Rural populations are not exclusively agricultural, nor are urban populations exclusively nonagricultural. For instance, the rural population of Africa in 2011 was million while the agricultural population was million. 6 The statistics on the global agricultural population mask significant regional variation in trends, however. Although the agricultural population grew worldwide between 1980 and 2011, growth was restricted to Africa, Asia, and Oceania. During this period, this population group declined in North, Central, and South America, in the Caribbean, and in Europe. For the last half-century, population growth in Africa agricultural and otherwise has been more pronounced than anywhere else in the world. Between 1980 and 2011, Africa s agricultural population grew by 63.2 percent and its nonagricultural population by percent. 7 In 2011, the agricultural population of Africa accounted for 49.8 percent of its total population a higher share than anywhere else in the world and 19.9 percent of the world s total agricultural population. 8 From , the nonagricultural population grew at a rate 5x greater than the agricultural population Figure 2. Agriculture Population Distribution, 2011 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Worldwatch Institute Source: FAOSTAT vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 2

3 Percent Growth Agricultural population growth during these years was second highest in Oceania, a region encompassing Australia, Melanesia, Micronesia, New Zealand, and Polynesia. Oceania s agricultural population grew by 48.5 percent, and its nonagricultural population grew by 65.5 percent. 9 Despite this growth, Oceania s agricultural population constituted only 0.3 percent of the world s total agricultural population in Between 1980 and 2011, the agricultural population of Asia grew by 20.5 percent and the nonagricultural population by percent. 11 Although both population groups grew less rapidly in Asia than in Africa, the total population of Asia (4.2 billion) remained four times that of Africa (1 billion) in Due to the enormity of its total population, Asia s agricultural population constituted 74.5 percent of the world s total agricultural population and 46.4 percent of the people in Asia in (See Figure 2.) The combination of movement to cities and agricultural consolidation caused agricultural populations to decline in Europe and the Americas between 1980 and 2011: by 66 percent in Europe, 44.6 percent in North America, 35.1 percent in South America, 13.6 percent in Central America, and 7.6 percent in the Caribbean. 14 (See Figure 3.) Figure 3. Population Growth, World Africa North America Central Caribbean America South America Asia Europe Oceania Agriculture Population Non-Agriculture Population Worldwatch Institute Source: FAOSTAT vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 3

4 Billions 6 Figure 4. Global Crop Production and Area Harvested, Crop Production (Tons) 2 1 Area Harvested (Ha) Worldwatch Institute Source: FAOSTAT Population trends have varied widely for the world s leading agricultural producers: China, India, and the United States. Between 1980 and 2011, the economically active agricultural populations of China and India grew by 33.2 and 50.7 percent, respectively, due to overall population growth. 15 The economically active agricultural population of the United States, on the other hand, declined by 37.2 percent as a result of large-scale mechanization, improved crop varieties, fertilizers, pesticides, and federal subsidies all of which contributed to economies of scale (lower average costs of production as volume of output increased) and consolidation in American agriculture. 16 Although we can only speculate about the reasons for growth and decline in various agricultural populations, it seems reasonable to conclude that overall population growth in Africa (256.2 percent), Asia (146.8 percent), and Oceania (130.9 percent) between 1961 and 2011 was the primary cause of agricultural population growth in these regions, particularly in their less developed areas. 17 In regions where total population growth was lower, such as the Americas and Europe, agricultural population declined for the reasons just mentioned regarding U.S. agriculture. Although the world s agricultural population grew only marginally in recent decades, global agricultural output increased dramatically. According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global net agricultural production increased by percent between 1980 and The world s net per capita production of agricultural goods increased by 34.9 percent during this period, averting food security crises in many places. 19 At a global level, these remarkable production gains were driven, for the most part, by factors other than agricultural expansion. Between 1980 and 2011, the total area harvested of cereals, citrus fruit, oilcakes, pulses, roots and tubers, treenuts, and vegetables increased by only 16.8 percent, from 1 billion to 1.2 billion hectares, while production of these goods increased by 93.3 percent, from 2.6 billion to 5 billion tons. 20 (See Figure 4.) Agricultural yield (harvested production per unit of harvested vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 4

5 area for crop products) of these items increased by 28.8 percent between 1961 and 1980 and by an additional 29.2 percent between 1980 and 2011, allowing farmers to feed a growing population without significantly expanding agricultural operations. 21 This increase in agricultural productivity was fueled by the development of new and innovative technologies as well as by greater use of farm machinery, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation systems. The numbers are telling: between 1975 and 2007, the world s net capital stock in agricultural machinery and equipment (in 2005 dollars) increased by 27.7 percent; between 1961 and 2011, the total area equipped for irrigation increased by 97.7 percent; and between 1961 and 2002, world fertilizer consumption increased by percent. 22 Although trend data are not available for world pesticide use, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that 5.2 billion pounds of pesticides were used worldwide in both 2006 and According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, productivity gains have been a driving force for growth in U.S. agriculture: between 1950 and 2000, the average amount of milk produced per cow increased from 5,314 pounds to 18,201 pounds per year, the average yield of corn rose from 39 bushels to 153 bushels per acre, and each farmer in 2000 produced on average 12 times as much farm output per hour worked as a farmer in These gains can help explain the decline in U.S. agricultural population in the last 50 years. Feeding a population of 9.1 billion in 2050 will require an overall increase of food production by 70% Although productivity gains have enabled farmers to meet the growing demand for food, the methods used to achieve such gains have come with unintended consequences, including soil degradation, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and depleted freshwater supplies. Short-term production gains achieved by overusing chemical pesticides and fertilizers have, as a result, reduced the sector s long-term resilience to climate change. FAO estimates that the global agricultural population will decline by 0.7 percent and that the nonagricultural population will grow by 16.1 percent between 2011 and The organization also estimates that feeding a population projected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 will require raising overall food production by some 70 percent between 2005/07 and To address this challenge while promoting resilience to climate change and avoiding environmental degradation, farmers, governments, and the private sector could consider investing in agroecological approaches to farming such as integrated pest management, no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry as well as programs designed to reduce food waste and food loss, which are currently estimated to be 1.3 billion tons per year (about one third of all food produced for human consumption). 27 Policies encouraging the conversion of land from biofuels and livestock feed production to food production could also play a role in sustainably increasing the human food supply. Sophie Wenzlau is a Senior Fellow at the Worldwatch Institute. vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 5

6 Vital Signs Online provides business leaders, policymakers, and engaged citizens with the latest data and analysis they need to understand critical global trends. Subscribe now for full access to hard data and research-based insights on the sustainability trends that are shaping our future. Worldwatch Institute th St., NW, Suite 430 Washington, DC Phone: vitalsigns.worldwatch.org Notes 1 U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Annual Population Data, FAOSTAT, at faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/o/oa/e; definition from FAO, Glossary, FAOSTAT, at faostat.fao.org/site/375/default.aspx. 2 FAO, Annual Population Data, op. cit. note 1. 3 Ibid. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Ibid. 10 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 12 Ibid. 13 Ibid. 14 Ibid. 15 Ibid. 16 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2007 Census of Agriculture: Farm Numbers, at bers.pdf. 17 FAO, Annual Population Data, op. cit. note FAO, Production Indices, FAOSTAT, at faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/q/qi/e. 19 Ibid. 20 FAO, op. cit. note Ibid. 22 FAO, Resources, FAOSTAT, at faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/r/*/e. 23 Arthur Grube et al., Pesticides Industry Sales and Usage, 2006 and 2007 Market Estimates (Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011). 24 Keith Fuglie, James MacDonald, and Eldon Ball, Productivity Growth in U.S. Agriculture, Economic Brief No. EB-9 (Washington, DC: USDA, Economic Research Service, 2007). 25 FAO, Annual Population Data, op. cit. note FAO, Global Agriculture Towards 2050, How to Feed the World 2050: High-Level Expert Forum, Rome, October FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste (Rome: 2011). vitalsigns.worldwatch.org 6

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