Deepening Reform in China s Economy, Breakthrough in Aquaculture Farming Science/Technology and Outlook on Future Fishmeal Consumption

Transcription

1 Deepening Reform in China s Economy, Breakthrough in Aquaculture Farming Science/Technology and Outlook on Future Fishmeal Consumption Hanver Liqiang Your essential event for networking and information

2 J C I Deepening Reform in China s Economy, Breakthrough in Aquaculture Farming Science/Technology and Outlook on Future Fishmeal Consumption Hanver Liqiang, President of Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., Ltd. (JCI) 57 th IFFO Annual Conference Oct. 23, 2017 Washington DC

3 A Deepening Reform in China s Economy and Industry Optimization B One after Another Breakthrough in China s Aquaculture Farming Science/Technology C Outlook on China s Future Fishmeal Consumption

4 A. Deepening Reform in China s Economy and Industry Optimization ChinaJCI After over 40 years of reform and opening to the outside world, China s economy has already been transforming from the extensive to intensive development mode. Accompanied with this process is one important guiding theory, namely supply-side structural reform, which is characterized by integrated social benefits and brand effects. Success has been achieved by the current stage, but still with severe challenges. It is still a long way to go for China s social transformation. 1. China s economy driven by the continual release of factor bonus has come to a turning point Source; NBS * China s M2 Balance, GDP Growth and Tax Revenue * China's GDP Growth(%) M2 balance(in trillion RMB) tax revenue(in 100 billion RMB)

5 Proportion of real estate market in China s national economy is changing China s New Home Sales/New Savings for Residents In 2016, China s new home sales/residents new savings reached 57%, which is expected to rise by 10% in 2017, implying that over 50% of residents savings are used house purchase. By end 2016, Chinese residents total savings are RMB65.17 trillion. Source China s crude oil consumption accounts for 23% of world total China s steel consumption accounts for 41.9% of world total China s coal consumption accounts for 50.6%of world total China s cement consumption accounts for 59.48% of world total

6 * 2. A new development stage has emerged for China s economy, which is characterized by modern science and technology ChinaJCI contribution of the four components of GDP to China s GDP Growth -60 final consumption net exports of goods and services gross capital formation S&T progress

7 China s has made one after another high-tech achievements in recent years. ChinaJCI Micius quantum satellite China-made large passenger aircraft C919 self-developed bullet train Fuxing Successful pre-production of combustible ice Standard high-speed train led by China Railway Corporation Intelligent unmanned bus, etc. China s economy also faces four historic challenges. Externally:China s strategy and Sino- US relations Environment:Harmonious development and environment in China Internally:China s social transformation and challenges Finance:RMB over-issuing and asset bubble

8 B. One after Another Breakthrough in China s Aquaculture Farming Science/Technology ChinaJCI 1. China s 13 rd Five-Year ( ): vigorously develop national marine farming center, seek sustainable deep-sea eco-friendly farming style. 2. China s 3 rd -generation marine and ecological farming technology takes the lead in the world. The 7700 MT marine farming platform China constructed for Norway can raise 1.5 million fishes at a time, weighing up to 10 KMT. As shown in the picture on the right, this farming platform, with height 69m, diameter 110m and weight 7700MT, is a semi-submersible intelligent marine farming platform, which is equipped with not only intelligent farming system, automatic support system, high-end operation and management system, but also hold up to strong wind scaled 12.

9 3. China s deep-sea farming has experienced the transition from wooden cages to plastic cages resistant against waves and copper alloy cages, which has successfully solved the worldwide problem of nets blocked by pelagic organisms like algae and shellfish. 4. After unremitting efforts for several decades, China s researchers have finally succeeded in raising shrimps in those saline-alkali regions. schematic diagram for IOT under the cooperation of China and Japan to monitor the environment data in aquaculture farms

10 5. China has conducted tough crackdown against illegal use of animal antibiotics in farming and feed production process. 6. China s MOA: prohibits the use of 106 drugs in the whole process of aquaculture farming, and 410 drugs in the whole process of land animal farming. Market awkwardness: McDonald's not to stop the use of poultry treated with antibiotics in China: complying with China s law. On August 23, McDonald's announced to gradually discontinue the use of human antibiotics in poultry since 2018, but China not on the first list.

11 7. Booming upgrade in China s feeding technology such as the introduction of new protease, high-end expanded feed, biscuits feed, fermented soymeal, soy protein concentrates, etc.. ChinaJCI Central China West China East China South China provinces Market capacity of aqua feed In 10 KMT Prod. Line of expanded feed Production capacity In 10 KMT Actual Demand In 10 KMT Hubei Hunan Jiangxi Henan Sichuan Chongqing Yunan Guizhou Zhejiang 33 64* Jiangsu/Shanghai Anhui Guangdong * Guangxi Hainan Fujian

12 Source: China Animal Industry Yearbook and Industry Projection In 10,000 MT C. Outlook on China s Future Fishmeal Consumption ChinaJCI * China s production of meat and feed by species * China s Meat, Egg and Milk Production and Future Projection Year Meat Pork % Beef % mutton % poultry % Other meat % egg Dairy Milk Aquatic products

13 Year Total , , , , , , , , , ,918 8 Growth rate (%) China s Feed Production total Pig share % 12% 9,318 2,411 26% 1,820 11% 8% 9% 11% 8% -1% 2% 1% 5% 10, , , , , , , , , ,892 27% 1, ,363 29% 2, ,112 32% 2, ,049 34% 2, ,991 37% 2, ,629 41% 2, ,944 41% 2, ,800 38% 2, ,175 39% 2,536 6 Compound feed production layer Share % Meat Share poultry % aquatic Share % others Share % Conc entrat ed feed premi x 20% 3,270 35% 1,287 14% 530 6% 2, % 3,814 36% 1,298 12% 591 6% 2, % 4,104 36% 1,426 12% 576 5% 2, % 4,353 34% 1,473 11% 714 6% 2, % 4,897 33% 1,652 11% 794 5% 2, % 5,115 31% 1,856 11% 795 5% 2, % 4,619 28% 1,833 11% 802 5% 2, % 4,796 28% 1,862 11% 985 6% 2, % % % 948 5% 1, % 5,799 32% 1,904 10% 981 5% 1, In 10,000 MT

14 2. China s aquatic product production plan in recent 10 years. 12 th Five-Year Period ( ): fishery will become China s strategic industry with modern fishery industry gradually taking shape. Total production of aquatic products will reach 67 million MT, and the ratio of aquatic products farmed to caught rises to 74: th Five-Year Period ( ): Total production of aquatic products will reach 66 million MT by the end of 13 th five-year-plan period. However, by 2016, China s aquatic product output has already reached 69 million MT, which means that China s aquatic product output has to decline from 69 million MT in 2016 to 66 million MT by China has to realize negative growth in the total fish catches during the 13 th five-year plan period, with total marine catches to be restricted below 10 million MT.

15 * China s aquatic feed: future development for seawater and fresh water fish feed. Based on statistics, aquatic feed production reached a total of million MT in South China s Guangdong Province in the first half of year 2017, up 8.24% on year. Among it, there was million MT of compound feed, up 7.95% on year; 4,200 MT of concentrated feed, up 32.47% on year; 60,900 MT of premix, up 16.44% on year. JCI: Guangdong Seawater and Fresh Water Fish Feed production in 10,000 MT FH 2017* Seawater fish feed fresh water fish feed ChinaJCI

16 2016 China s Sea Water and Fresh Water Aquaculture Farming Acreage and Future Trend Sea Water Farming Fresh Water Farming In hectare Province Acreage Provinces Acreage 1 Liaoning Hubei Shandong Anhui Guangdong Jiangsu Jiangsu Hunan Fujian Jiangxi Hebei Heilongjiang Zhejiang Guangdong Guangxi Jilin Hainan Henan Tianjin Shandong Note: There is million ha of saline-alkali land in China, among which 15% or 1.48 million ha is able for farming owing to available sources of water. By far, China has already succeeded in cultivating shrimps in saline-alkali land in Gansu, and the prospect is beyond measure, as the selling price for shrimps cultivated there is 3 times that of coastal areas, quite profitable.

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19 4. China s fishmeal import structure during Jan-Jul 2017 ChinaJCI 961,270 MT: China s fishmeal imports during Jan-Jul % up 59.4% on year 555,738 MT from Peru 58% up 130% on year 74,855 MT From Vietnam 8% down 3.1% on year 43,291 MT From the US 5% down 10.8% on year 43,076 MT From Ecuador 4% Down 69.1% on year

20 Outlook on China s fishmeal consumption in coming 5 years ChinaJCI JCI: China's Production of Aquatic Products and Land Animal Meat In 10,000 MT Land animal meat aquatic products Source: Note: China s consumption of aquatic products will finally outnumber that of land animal meat some day in the future. In the coming 5 years,with the fast development of deep sea aquaculture farming and potential growth in fresh water farming, the overall production of aquatic products are hopeful to reach million MT, which is to help boost fishmeal consumption by 300, ,000 MT. If there is boosting policy from the government, China s aquatic product demand is likely to reach 100 million MT in 10 years time, which is to bring a million MT rise to fishmeal consumption. What we have seen in China s local production of fishmeal from non-anchovy over the past 10 years is just a very good example.

21 J C I THANK YOU! Wechat Android APP IOS APP Twitter