Externalities, nitrogen discharges and marine aquaculture: Bokna fjord in Rogaland. Jay Abolofia UC Davis Frank Asche University of Stavanger

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1 Externalities, nitrogen discharges and marine aquaculture: Bokna fjord in Rogaland Jay Abolofia UC Davis Frank Asche University of Stavanger

2 Introduction Intensive food production systems increase productivity, but are also increase local emissions Salmon production is hugely successful in terms of quantity produced Norway is the largest producer The industry has had the luxury of facing problems before they have to solve them

3 Salmon is one of the most successful aquaculture species: Norwegian export price and production cost for salmon (2012=1)

4 Salmon is one of the most successful aquaculture species: Norwegian export price and production cost for salmon (2012=1)

5 Salmon is one of the most successful aquaculture species: Norwegian export price and production cost for salmon (2012=1)

6 but aquaculture also leads to new environmental challenges Aquaculture is a new way of using the eco-system, and accordingly create a new set of environmental challenges Access to feed ingredients (the fish meal trap) Local externalities Emissions including disease Escapees In principal, the same control with the production process that has enabled systematic R&D to create innovation can be used to address environmental challenges In practice this is to a large extent determined by the governance system when the industry threatening challenges has been overcome

7 Global aquaculture production: The revolution started in the 1970s, but did not really hit the market until the 1990s Million tonnes

8 Discharges Discharges currently do not receive substantial attention in relation to Norwegian salmon aquaculture But hypoxia is a local concern, particularly in the south, exacerbated by warmer summers Two regulatory agencies competes: Institute of Marine Research: Does the emissions cause harm in the system? The Environmental Directorate: All new emissions are bad and should be avoided.

9 Nutrient loading in the North Sea According to the OSPAR convention, human emissions of nutrients from Norway are trivial compared to the natural inflows in the North Sea Human activity in Norway contribute less than 3% of the nutrient loading to the eastern part of the North Sea system The Norwegian sea is deficient in nutrients A salmon farm producing 5000 tons provides organic loading equivalent to a people community

10 Hypoxia There are no large scale system challenges due to high nitrogen loadings (IMR, 2014) There are local challenges particularly in warm summers as low-oxygen and high nutrient levels cause hypoxia in local areas including in the pens (Heverøy et al, 2013) To some extent larger and deeper pens and adding oxygen helps solving the challenge

11 Innovations increase scale a salmon pen from 1980 and one from m 50 m

12 Panel Data Salmon farming happens all over Norway

13 Rogaland

14 Data Production in Rogaland increased to tonnes in 2013 Farm level monthly observations (61 farms with geograpical coordinates) from Havbruksdata on biomass, feed use and temperatures May 2010 to Dec 2013 Temperature just until March Interpolated after that Different measures of nitrogen at 9 measurement stations from Blue Planet

15 Farm Profits Biomass growth depends on environmental conditions

16 Model AB it is net-gain in ancillary biomass: Ab it = stocking it harvest it - mortality it escapes it - removals it

17 Model AB it is net-gain in ancillary biomass: Ab it = stocking it harvest it - mortality it escapes it - removals it

18 Estimation

19 Estimation Explanatory variables are Feed, Fish size, Water temperature and different measures of Nitrogen loading Robust standard errors

20 Ammoneum nitrates

21 Nitrate

22 Total nitrogen

23 Conclusions Hypoxia is at times an issue in salmon farming However, we are not able to find any The relationship standerd between Quantifying nitrogen impacts loadings intensive and farm systems salmon growth rates No impact on profits Ongoing work: This - treatment is largely as behavior expected, and and efficacy there over does time not appear - policies to be to economic mitigate impacts reasons of related to aquaculture to reduce nitrogen emissions

24 What is the relevant compasion in terms of environmental impact: Increased emission from the specific production process, or the system? Carbon footprint kg CO2/kg edible meat 30 kg 3.4 kg 5.9 kg 2.9 kg Water consumption litre/kg edible meat 15,400 litre litre 6,000 litre 1,400 litre Feed conversion ratio Energy retention 27 % 10 % 14 % 27 % Protein retention 15 % 21 % 18 % 24 % Edible yield 41 % 46 % 52 % 68 % Edible meat per 100kg feed 4-10 kg 21 kg 17 kg 57 kg Note: FCR for cattle varies between 4.2 and 9.8 depending on the feed (finished on cereal or grass)

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