FNB Agri-Weekly 17 March 2006

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1 An Authorised Financial Services Provider FNB Agri-Weekly Web Beef market trends (Graph 1) International: Beef prices continued to drift lower due to improved volumes coupled with a weaker demand on markets higher volumes were partly attributable to increased slaughtering in the US. Meanwhile, a case of BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) was detected in a cow in Alabama in the US. However, the news were reported to have had limited impact on the market. Japan is also reported to have confirmed its 24 th case of BSE in a 14 year old beef cow in Nagasaki. Import parity prices for beef weakened due to the combined effect of a stronger Rand and lower international prices. Domestic: Class A contract beef prices continued to strengthen due to tight supplies. (SA c/kg) Graph 1: Beef price trends 850 Class A Class C NZ Cow import parity Contract Weaner calf Weaner calf prices were slightly higher - Average prices of weaner calves increased by 1.6% compared to last week and finished the week at R 12.36/ kg live weight. Current prices are however almost 39% higher when compared to the same week last year. Hide prices remained steady. It is expected that beef prices will continue to strengthen during month end and beyond as the Easter holidays draw nearer. Mutton market trends (Graph 2) International: International lamb and mutton prices moved marginally lower for the week. Prices were down 1.3% compared to the previous week. Import parity prices lamb and mutton declined on the back of a stronger Rand. Domestic: Contract lamb prices bottomed out and moved slightly higher for the week. Average feeder lamb prices however softened slightly and finished the week at R 11.67/ kg live weight prices dropped 2.3% higher compared to last week but were almost 12% higher than last year s levels. (SA c/kg) 3,000 2,600 2,200 1,800 1,400 Domestic lamb and mutton prices are expected to hold at current levels with further upward potential during month end. Graph 2: Mutton price trends 1,000 Lamb Class C Contract lamb NZ Lamb parity ZN Mutton parity * Last two data points are preliminary

2 Pork market trends (Graph 3) International: International pork prices drifted substantially lower as supplies outweighed demand on markets. Prices dropped 10% compared to last week and were almost 14.7% lower if compared to the same week last year. Likewise, import parity prices for pork (ham) moved sharply lower largely due to lower international prices coupled with a stronger Rand. Domestic: Contract porker and baconer prices were a bit softer as a result of lack of demand. Unlike other meat types, pork prices have trended sideways since the beginning of the year. (SA c/kg) Graph 3: Pork price trends 1,450 1,350 1,250 1,150 1, Porker Import parity Baconer Export parity Domestic pork and baconer prices are expected to continue move sideways in the short term. Poultry market trends (Graph 4) International: Poultry prices continued to drift lower as expected due to demand problems related to bird flu. Further news on bird flu is that (c/kg) 1,460 1,340 Graph 4: Poultry price trends Denmark, Afghanistan and Sweden have 1,220 confirmed first cases of the H5N1 strain of the bird flu - adding to the list of more than 20 nations already affected. In Africa, countries that 1, have confirmed the presence of the deadly flu 860 strain include Nigeria, Egypt, Niger and 740 Cameroon. Prices declined by 6% week-onweek and were almost 26% lower compared to the same week last year. Likewise, Import parity prices for poultry continued to decline due to 620 lower international prices and a stronger Rand. Domestic: Poultry prices improved slightly with the exception of the fresh whole bird category which was steady. Prices seem to have started to firm again particularly in the IQF category which finished the week 2.8% higher compared to the previous week. In the case of the frozen whole birds, prices were up 2.7% on last week. 25-Nov-05 6-Jan Feb Mar-06 Frozen whole Fresh whole Imported Leg Quarter It is expected that domestic poultry prices will strengthen during month end and have a potential to strengthen even further as the Easter period draws nearer. Producer prices for selected livestock commodities Beef Mutton Pork Poultry Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds(r/kg) Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds(r/kg) Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) Feedlot Hides (R/kg) / Dorper Skins (R/piece) Veldt Hides (R/kg) / (Medium Merino Skins R/piece)

3 Wool and cotton market trends (Graph 5) International: Cotton market bottomed out and moved marginally higher for the week. Prices were up 0.2% compared to the previous week and were 3% higher if compared to the same week last year. World cotton production for 05/06 is projected to decline by almost 5.8% while ending stocks are projected at 11.3 million tons, almost 1.7% lower than last season. Derived cotton lint prices eased slightly lower on the back of a stronger Rand. Australian wool prices finished the week slightly lower on the back of a stronger AU Dollar. The EMI (Eastern Market Indicator) fell 0.4% to finish the week at 751 AU cents per kg (clean). Domestic: There was no sale for the week. The next sale is scheduled for March 22 and will see 9 bales coming under the hammer. Wool Graph 5: Cotton & wool price (c/kg) Cotton SA Wool Aus Wool Cotton A-Ind Domestic wool prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Fibre market prices SA prices (R/kg) Australian prices (R/kg) Australian future May 2006 (AU$/kg) Australian future Aug 2006 (AU$/kg) Wool market indicator (R/kg) 26.27* μ medium length wool (R/kg) 39.46* μ medium length wool (R/kg) 29.76* SA derived Cotton (R/kg) New York A-Index (US$/kg) New York future May 2006 (US$/kg) New York future Jul 2006 (US$/kg) Cotton Prices (R/kg) *Previous sale -8 th March, 2006 Yellow maize market (Graph 6) International: Yellow maize prices continued to decline due to talk of large grain supplies coupled with improved soil moisture conditions ahead of the planting season in the US. Further expansion of bird flu outbreaks in Europe and other areas across the world added more pressure on the market. Prices were down 1.9% week-on-week, but were however 6% above last year s levels. Import parity prices for yellow maize (Randfontein) weakened on the back of a stronger Rand and lower international prices. Domestic: Yellow maize prices moved slightly higher for the week. Average weekly price rose 2.6% week-on-week and ended at R 1017/ ton. Lower stock situation remain supportive to prices Graph 6: Yellow maize prices 300 Import parity Export parity Domestic Yellow maize prices are expected to move sideways with further upward potential in the short to medium term.

4 Yellow Maize Futures CBOT ($/t) SAFEX (R/t) Calculated Yellow Maize Options prices RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) 1, , , , , , White maize market trends (Graph 7) International: As with yellow maize, white maize prices eased slightly lower due to improved production conditions coupled with concerns over the impact of bird flu on maize demand. Prices moved 1.9% down from last week s level. Import parity prices for white maize (Randfontein) weakened due to the combined effect of a stronger Rand and lower international prices. Domestic: White maize prices continued to strengthen for the third consecutive week due to reports of crop damage in some areas as a result of water-logging due to heavy rains. Indications are that the harvest estimate might be revised lower. White maize prices increased by 1.7% on last week and ended the week at R 1126/ ton. Graph 7: White maize prices Import parity Export parity Domestic * last two data points are li i It is expected that white maize prices will move sideways with further upward potential in the short to medium term. White Maize Futures SAFEX (R/t) Calculated White Maize Options prices RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) 1, , , , , , , , ,

5 Wheat market trends (Graph 8) International: Wheat prices declined modestly 1 on forecasts of rain for the southern and central plains of the US. However good export 1 demand limited further losses. Prices were down 5.5% compared to the previous week Last week s USDA monthly supply and demand report indicated slightly lower than 1100 expected 05/06 US stocks. Global ending stocks were however marginally higher at million. Import parity prices for wheat (Randfontein) declined due to the combined effect of a stronger Rand and lower international prices. Domestic: On the local front, wheat prices moved slightly higher for the week - Prices were up 1.4% compared to last week and were almost 5% higher if compared to the same week last year. Graph 8: Wheat price trends Import parity Export parity Domestic Domestic wheat prices are expected to maintain the current momentum and move sideways in the short term. Wheat Futures KCBT ($/t) SAFEX (R/t) Calculated Wheat Option prices RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) 1, , , , , , , , , Oilseed market trends (Graph 9) Graph 9: Derived Oilseed prices International: Soya bean prices eased lower due to prospects of improved soil moisture condition in the US coupled with concerns over the continued spreading of the bird flu around the world - and the decline in soya meal demand Weak US soya bean demand coupled with 1900 harvesting in South America provided further 1780 pressure on prices harvesting is reported to be 1660 in progress in South America but slowed down 1540 recently due to rain. Prices declined by 2% week-on-week and were 11.8% lower if 1420 compared to the corresponding week last year In China, soya bean prices are reported to have fallen due to increased farmer selling ahead of Derived Soya Derived Sunflower Sunflower-spot Soya-spot the spring planting season. Likewise, derived soybean and sunflower oil prices declined on the back of lower international prices and a stronger Rand. Domestic: Both sunflower seed and soybean prices dropped modestly due to lower import parity prices. Weekly prices for sunflower and soya beans declined by 0.8% and 4.6% respectively compared to last week. Domestic soybean and sunflower prices are expected to under pressure and decline.

6 Oilseeds Futures CBOT Soybeans (US $/t) CBOT Soya oil (US c/lb) CBOT Soya cake meal (US $/t) SAFEX Soybean seed (R/t) SAFEX Sunflower seed (R/t) Calculated Sunflower Options prices : RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) 1, , , , , , , , , Vegetable market trends (Graph 10) Potatoes Potato prices moved substantially lower for the week. Average prices were down 22% compared to last week, but were however 33% higher if compared to the same week last year. Cabbage Cabbage prices drifted lower for the week. Average cabbage prices finished the week almost 17% lower than last week and were 48% lower if compared to the corresponding week last year. Carrots Carrot prices continued to strengthen due to substantially lower volumes on markets. The Average carrot prices were up18% on last week and almost 6% higher compared to the same week last year. Onions Onion prices advanced significantly for the week. Prices increased by 9.5% week-on-week and were almost 24% higher compared to the same week last year. Volumes declined significantly across all markets Graph 10: Fresh produce vegetable prices Tomatos Potatoes Onions Carrots Cabbage Tomatoes Tomato prices continued to strengthen as a result of a significant reduction in volumes across all markets. The average weekly tomato prices increased by 14% on last week and were 17% higher compared to the same week last year. Vegetable prices (Average Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth) Week ending Average Total Price (R/t) Volume (t) Tomato R 3, Potato R 1, , Onion R 1, Carrot R 2, Cabbage R Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.