Impact of air pollution on crops in South Asia and southern Africa

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1 Impact of air pollution on crops in South Asia and southern Africa Patrick Büker, Lisa Emberson and RAPIDC participants Stockholm Environment Institute, Malé Declaration and Air Pollution Information Network for Africa (APINA)

2 Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries RAPIDC Sida-funded project Phase III terminated in Sept Local partners/facilitators: South ASIA: Malé Declaration Southern Africa: Air Pollution Information Network for Africa (APINA) General purpose of RAPIDC: to facilitate the development of agreements and/or protocols to implement measures which prevent and control air pollution through promoting international cooperation and developing scientific information for the policy process Crops project: Assessing the impact of air pollutants on crops in South Asia and Southern Africa

3 Project aims i) to perform provisional modelling based risk assessments to define the extent and magnitude of potential impacts; ii) to perform experimental studies according to standardised protocols to compliment these regional scale risk assessment, and iii) to develop methods to understand the socio-economic consequences of yield losses due to O 3

4 APCEN (Air Pollution Crop Effect Network) Provide technical support to the experimental campaigns To help in translation of science to policy Region Africa Asia The Americas, Europe and Australia Network Members Countries / regions represented Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania, Botswana India, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan, P.R. China, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Bangladesh Australia, Chile, Sweden, UK, USA, Brazil, Germany

5 Provisional risk assessment Accumulated O 3 exposure (AOT40) during wheat (left) and rice (right) crop growing season, calculated using the MATCH model (Engardt, 2008)

6 Provisional risk assessment (cont.) AOT40 values for southern Africa for October 2000 to April 2001, based on projecting 5-day modelled concentrations to represent a full month using the CAMx model (van Tienhoven et al., 2006)

7 RAPIDC countries involved in crop impact activities Clover, mung bean, potato, spinach Clover, pea

8 Passive ozone monitoring Annual O 3 profile based on 4-weekly mean O 3 concentration (ppb) data passively monitored during experimental periods

9 Clover clone bio-monitoring Successful in Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Africa and Zimbabwe Little foliar injury on sensitive NC-S clover clone, none on NC-R clone Reduced biomass of NC-S as compared to NC-R clone, but often not significant (especially in southern Africa) Yield loss against 4-weekly average O 3 concentration. Black = Pakistan, Red = Bangladesh 2007, Blue = Bangladesh 2008, Green = South Africa 2006, Orange = South Africa 2007, Pink = Zimbabwe Hollow diamonds = nonsignificant effects, filled diamonds = significant effects.

10 Conclusions clover clones difficult to establish in tropical and sub-tropical climate (e.g. high temperatures) no apparent trend between 4-weekly average O 3 concentrations and clover clone yield loss Possible reasons for insignificant effects: low O 3 concentrations (South Africa and Zimbabwe) characterisation of O 3 concentration (no continuous measurements available, i.e. no AOT40 data available) extreme meteorological conditions irrigation problems Clover clone bio-monitoring poor establishment of clover plants

11 Chemical protectant study using EDU Absolute yield losses of EDU- as compared to non-edu treated crops (mung bean, spinach, potato and pea). Also shown are accumulated effective temperature sums above 0 C (ETS>0 C) and accumulated VPD (Acc. VPD) of experimental periods.

12 Chemical protectant study using EDU (cont.) 4-weekly mean O 3 concentration vs. yield losses for potato (Po), spinach (S), pea (Pe) and mung bean (remainder) grown in South Asia or southern Africa. Hollow diamonds = non-significant effect, filled diamonds = significant effect. Vertical grey bar = assumed Asian mean annual O 3 background concentration.

13 Conclusions of EDU study

14 Provisional economic loss estimates Wheat, Rice, Soybean, Potato European AOT40 dose-response relationships (Mills et al., 2007) FAO crop production, distribution and producer price data for 2000 MATCH modelled O 3 concentrations for 2000 Loss estimated at US$ 3.9 Billion India (US$ 3.1), Pakistan (US$ 0.35) and Bangladesh (US$ 0.4)

15 Future plans ICP Vegetation Atmospheric Brown Cloud Air Pollution Crop Effect Network APCEN help in modification of risk assessment methods developed in CLRTAP by ICP Vegetation for Asian conditions. Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia Malé Declaration (via UNEP Asia) formally requested link with CLRTAP - request has been formally accepted by CLRTAP WGE, Task Forces and their ICPs

16 Future plans (cont.) International agreements to curb O 3 precursor emissions Co-ordinated experimental campaigns for South Asia Crop breeding programmes to reduce sensitivity in crop varieties Understanding the role of O 3 on food security and poverty Understanding the interaction between O 3 and climate change Improved communication between policy makers, stakeholders and scientists

17 Acknowledgements Thanks to the Swedish International Development Agency for funding the important work presented in this talk. APCEN website: