System development and analysis of long-term projection on global food supply and demand used synthetic model

Transcription

1 System development and analysis of long-term projection on global food supply and demand used synthetic model Report on the Analysis of Baseline Projection Results March, 2012

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3 Contents 1. Overview of the Long-Term Food Supply and Demand Projection System Model specification System outline... 1 (1) System structure... 1 (2) Commodity coverage... 1 (3) Base year/target year... 1 (4) Projected factors... 2 (5) Countries and regions coverage Assumptions Results of Baseline Projections Global yields Global food production Global food demand Food demand in each region Changes in the net export/import structure Per-capita calorie intake Trends for each crop (1) Wheat (2) Rice (3) Maize (4) Soybeans Supply and Demand in Major Countries (1) Japan (2) United State of America (3) China (4) France (5) Brazil (6) India (7) Russia (8) Australia Biofuels Conclusion Appendix... 45

4 1. Overview of the Long-Term Food Supply and Demand Projection System 1.1 Model specification The Long-Term Food Supply and Demand Projection System is a dynamic multi -market equilibrium analysis model based on the microeconomic theory. The core mechanism of this system is that the supply and demand of all commodities are balanced annually through the market mechanism at the global level, under the certain assumptions,for instance future population, economic growth rates and climate change scenarios. The system takes into account the economic activities of agricultural producers, consumers, and land developers that have been formulated based on own optimization behavior, also it takes into account the several foods markets, and also land market in the entire world.. There are approximately 54,000 equations in the model system. One of the most interesting feature of this model is to deal with detailed subdivided geographical dimension in order to take into consideration the impacts of climate change, etc. 1.2 System outline (1) System structure The system contains three model modules, that is the supply model, the international trade model and the demand model. The outline of each model is shown below. 1) Supply model The supply model is modeled base on the yield model and the land use choice model. The yield model is calculated by including the impacts of future climate change. The harvested area is calculated by the products price level in the previous period. 2) International trade model International trade model is formulated one world market in each agricultural products assumed by hypothetical international market. This model can be decided one world price in each agricultural goods in each period. 3) Demand model Agricultural consumption levels in each country are calculated by demand functions based on the population, the GDP, agricultural goods prices of the relevant commodities, also take into account dietary habits in each country as parameter settings. (2) Commodity coverage The Long-Term Food Supply and Demand Projection System covers 16 commodities in total: 12 field crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, barley, sorghum, cassava, soybeans, rapeseeds, palms, sunflowers, sugar cane and sugar beet) and four livestock and dairy products (i.e. beef, pork, chicken and milk). (3) Base year/target year The target year for the projections was set as in order to make an long-term projection, while 2000 was used as the base year. Base year figures represent the 3-year average for the years 1999 through

5 (4) Projected factors The system was used to project the following factors: production volumes, demands, net exports/imports for the respective commodities and countries. (5) Countries and regions coverage The system covers 140 countries worldwide (covering over 99% of the population) and makes projections by country. The results are shown by classifying the countries into seven regions, which were delineated according to standard geographical classifications, as well as into three income classes. Fig System coverage area Covered countries Uncovered countries Region Income 1 Fig Region and Income group Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, Middle East, Oceania Developing(Low-income), Intermediate(middle-income), Developed(high-income) Note, however, that since the projections presented in this document are intended to project underlying trends in world supply and demand for food, projections have not been made for all the individual countries covered and only the projections for seven regions, three income classes and major countries were made. 1.3 Assumptions The following assumptions were set for the projections regarding population/economic growth, climatic conditions, agricultural productivity and trends in biofuels. 1) The population/economic growth The world s population in was assumed to reach 9.2 billion (approx. 1.5 times the population in 2000) on the basis of the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) B2 Scenario. It is estimated that the population in China will reach 1.52 billion (1.2 times the level in 2000) and the population in India will reach 1.53 billion (1.5 times the level in 2000). Therefore, the two countries alone will account for more than 30% of the world s population. 1 Bank Analytical Classifications GNI per capita in US$, Atlas methodology, 2010 was used to define developing countries (GDP per capita is less than 755 US dollars), intermediate countries (GDP per capita is 755 US dollars or more and less than 9,266 US dollars) and developed countries (GDP per capita is 9,266 US dollars or more). 2

6 Regarding economic growth, global GDP in was assumed to reach approximately 3.8 times the level in 2000, based on the SRES B2 Scenario. It is expected that GDP will reach approximately 14.6 times in China and approximately 17.0 times in India, both achieving higher economic growth rates than the world average. GDP per capita will reach approximately 12,000 US dollars on average globally in (2.4 times the level in 2000), approximately 12,000 US dollars in China (12.4 times the 2000 level) and 4,700 US dollars in India (11.2 times the 2000 level). 2) Climate The SRES B1 Scenario (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)) was used to set assumptions for the climate. The global average temperature in will increase by approximately 2.2 C from the current level and global precipitation in will increase by approximately 4.8% (36 mm) from the current level. However, the level of change varies depending on the geographical area. For example, precipitation will decrease by approximately 40% in some areas. 3) Agricultural productivity It was assumed that current increases, etc. in productivity will continue into the future. 4) Biofuels The level of demand for biofuel crops was set based on OECD/FAO(2011), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook and other documents. It was assumed that the volume of crops used to produce biofuels will increase up to 2020 based on the projections made in OECD/FAO (2011). It was also estimated that the demand for biofuel crops will level off from 2020 with the assumption that the second-generation biofuels will become mainstream from 2020 onwards. 3

7 2. Results of Baseline Projections 2.1 Global yields <Yields will increase by approximately 1.4 times globally. The rate of increase for cereals will be high.> Figure 2-1 shows changes in global yields as of. It is projected, by taking into consideration the impacts of climate change, that global yields for all crops will increase through productivity increases as well as increasing agricultural investment. In particular, the yields of major cereals such as wheat, rice and maize are projected to increase at a higher rate, reaching approx. 1.5 times the yields in The yields of oil seeds and other agricultural products will increase by approx. 1.3 times from 2000 levels. Fig. 2-1 Yield growth(compared to 2000 levels) Wheat Rice Maize Barley Sorghum Cassava Soybeans Rapeseed and Mustard Palm Sunflower Sugarcane Sugarbeet Figure 2-2 shows changes in the yields of major crops worldwide. Yields are projected to increase in intermediate countries and in developing countries in general. The yield of rice will increase in South Asian countries including India and the yield of wheat will increase in East European countries and India. The yield of maize will increase in various countries including Brazil and Argentina. The yield of soybeans will greatly increase in India and Russia. Rice 米 Fig. 2-2 Yield growth (Major 4 crops) Wheat 小麦 (Yield ( 年単収 in /Yield /2000 年単収 in 2000) ) ( (Yield 年単収 in /Yield /2000 年単収 in 2000) ) Maize とうもろこし Soybeans 大豆 (Yield ( in 年単収 /Yield /2000 in 年単収 2000) ) (Yield ( in 年単収 /Yield /2000 in 年単収 2000) )

8 When looking at each income class, the rate of increase for yields is projected to be high in developing countries. A significant increase in yields is not expected in developed countries which have already achieved relatively high productivity Fig. 2-3 Yield growth of major crops by income class (compared to 2000 levels) Wheat Rice Maize Soybeans Developing Intermediate Developed When looking at regional trends, it is projected that yields will increase greatly in Asia and Africa. Yields of some commodities will increase greatly in regions other than Asia and Africa Fig. 2-4 Yield growth of major crops by region (compared to 2000 levels) Wheat Rice Maize Soybeans Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania 5

9 2.2 Global food production <The global food production level in will increase to 1.6 times the 2000 level.> The global production level in for the commodities covered by the baseline projections will reach 4.47 billion tons, increasing by 1.55 times from the 2000 level. This is a larger growth rate than the population growth rate. The production levels for cereals such as wheat and rice will increase to 2.93 billion tons (1.65 times the 2000 level), accounting for a larger percentage out of the total food production volume. The projected growth in food production levels is slightly lower than the projection shown in "How to Feed the " (FAO, 2009) which forecasts that the production level will increase by 70% from the current level. 2 (million tons, mt) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, mt (17.7%) 238mt (5.3%) Fig.2-5 Production growth in the world Livestocks Other Oil Seeds Cereals 6,932mt (1.55 times lager) 4,470 mt 1,662mt (37.2%) 1,779mt (39.8%) 1,194 mt (17.2%) (1.51 times lager) 2,412mt (34.8%) (1.45times) 2,928mt (42.2%) (1.65times) mt (5.7%) (1.67times) 2 A rigorous comparison is not possible because FAO (2009) and the baseline projections cover different commodities. The projections made in 2-1 through to 2-7 summarize food supply and demand without including biofuels. This is the same approach as FAO (2009). 6

10 <Developing countries will provide production increases.> While global food production is projected to increase by 1.55 times, food production in developing countries will show a high rate of increase (1.77 times). The production levels of all commodities including cereals, oil seeds, other agricultural products and livestock products are projected to increase at higher rates than the global average. In intermediate countries, higher rates of production increases than the world average will be achieved, for oil seeds and livestock products. Fig.2-6 Production growth by income class Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks total Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) % 33.8% % 1.5% % 50.8% % 13.9% 1, % Developing % 36.4% % 1.7% % 50.3% % 11.6% 1, % / % 3.1% 2.6% 204.3% 1.4% 0.2% 175.9% 6.5% 0.4% 147.0% 0.5% 2.4% 177.4% 3.2% % 37.6% % 5.4% % 42.6% % 14.3% 2, % Intermediate 1, % 41.5% % 7.0% 1, % 37.0% % 14.5% 3, % / % 0.8% 3.9% 195.5% 8.6% 1.6% 131.8% 5.2% 5.6% 153.6% 0.7% 0.2% 151.8% 1% % 48.3% % 8.2% % 16.9% % 26.5% 1, % Developed % 49.3% % 7.4% % 15.4% % 27.9% 1, % / % 3.9% 1% 128.4% 10.1% 0.8% 130.1% 1.3% 1.5% 150.4% 0.2% 1.4% 142.9% 2.2% , % 39.8% % 5.3% 1, % 37.2% % 17.7% 4, % Total 2, % 42.2% % 5.7% 2, % 34.8% 1, % 17.2% 6, % / % 0.0% 2.4% 166.6% 0.0% 0.4% 145.2% 0.0% 2.4% 151.1% 0.0% 0.5% 155.1% 0.0% <Asia will provide approximately 40% of global food production.> When looking at regional food production projections for, Asia is projected to produce 2.63 billion tons of food. As a region which provides approximately 40% of the total food production, the region will continue to play an important role in global food supply and demand. Africa is expected to produce nearly twice the 2000 food production level. Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Total Fig.2-7 Production growth by region Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks total Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share Share Production Share (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) (ofincome) (million t) (of) % 30.3% % 1.0% % 57.6% % 11.0% % % 30.0% % 0.8% % 60.3% % 8.9% % / % 0.5% 0.4% 139.6% 0.2% 0.2% 190.8% 3.3% 2.7% 148.0% 0.1% 2.1% 182.3% 1.2% % 57.9% % 13.5% % 9.4% % 19.2% % % 60.3% % 12.3% % 7.1% % 20.3% % / % 2% 2.5% 129.6% 8.2% 1.3% 108.7% 0.9% 2.2% 150.6% 0% 1% 142.9% 1.1% % 15.2% % 7.8% % 66.5% % 10.4% % % 20.6% % 11.7% % 57.2% % 10.5% 1, % / % 1.7% 5.4% 221.2% 9.3% 3.8% 128.1% 4.1% 9.3% 149.7% 0.1% 0.1% 148.8% 0.8% % 45.2% % 3.0% % 38.5% % 13.4% 1, % 1, % 46.7% % 3.2% % 37.3% % 12.8% 2, % / % 0.7% 1.6% 173.5% 0.8% 0.2% 156.7% 3% 1.2% 154.9% 0.7% 0.6% 161.8% 1.6% % 43.5% % 3.3% % 20.3% % 33.0% % % 45.4% % 2.9% % 18.1% % 33.6% 1, % / % 1.4% 1.9% 130.1% 2.5% 0.4% 131.4% 1% 2.1% 149.8% 0.3% 0.6% 147.0% 1% % 50.9% % 1.0% % 23.5% % 24.6% % % 61.5% % 1.0% % 15.2% % 22.2% % / % 0.6% 10.6% 160.1% 0% 0% 105.7% 0.4% 8.2% 147.2% 0.1% 2.4% 163.0% 0.1% % 34.4% % 3.4% % 35.8% % 26.4% % % 34.3% % 5.7% % 34.9% % 25.1% % / % 0.1% 0.2% 258.2% 0.8% 2.3% 150.8% 0.1% 0.9% 147.2% 0.1% 1.3% 154.6% 0% , % 39.8% % 5.3% 1, % 37.2% % 17.7% 4, % 2, % 42.2% % 5.7% 2, % 34.8% 1, % 17.2% 6, % / % 0.0% 2.4% 166.6% 0.0% 0.4% 145.2% 0.0% 2.4% 151.1% 0.0% 0.5% 155.1% 0.0% 7

11 2.3 Global food demand <Developing countries will see a dramatic demand increase.> With the population increase and economic development, food demand in developing countries as of 2000 is projected to increase from 1.03 billion tons in 2000 to 2.13 billion tons by, increasing by 2.06 times from the 2000 level. The developing countries food demand will increase from 23.1% of global food demand in 2000 to 30.8% by. Food demand in intermediate countries will also grow (1.46 times, from 2.28 billion tons to 3.32 billion tons). On the other hand, the increase in food demand in developed countries is projected to be moderate 1.27 times and the developed countries food demand will decrease from 26.0% of global food demand in 2000 to 21.3% by. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Fig.2-8 Changes in food demand by income class (million tons,mt) Developing Intermediate Developed 8,000 6,932mt 7,000 (1.55timeslager) 6,000 5,000 4,470mt 2,132mt (30.8%) (2.06times) 1,032mt (23.1%) 2,276mt (50.9%) 1,161mt (26.0%) 3,321mt (47.9%) (1.46times) 1,479mt (21.3%) (1.27times)

12 <Per capita food demand will increase in developing countries.> When looking at per capita food demand, developing countries will see an increase in per capita food demand although the figures will decrease in other income classes. When looking at a breakdown of the figure for developing countries, per capita food demand is projected to increase to 103% of the 2000 level for cereals, decrease to 99% of the 2000 level for oil seeds, increase to 101% for other agricultural products and remain at 100% for livestock products. In intermediate countries, per capita demand for oil seeds will increase at the highest rate. The demand for livestock products will also increase at a higher rate than other income classes. This is mainly because their food preferences are expected to change as they experience economic growth. Fig.2-9 Changes in food demand pre capita by income class (Unit :ton/capita/year) Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks total Developing / % 98.9% 101.3% 100.3% Intermediate / % 147.2% 62.5% 126.4% Developed / % 109.3% 64.4% 102.5% Total / % 105.3% 102.9% 99.1%

13 2.4 Food demand in each region <There will be remarkable demand increases in Africa and Asia.> In Africa and Asia, where a marked population increase and economic development are taking place, there will be a remarkable increase in food demand as well as food production. The regions will be important parts of the global food supply and demand in. Food demand in Africa is projected to increase by 2.17 times by. When looking at individual commodities, the demand will increase by 2.20 times for cereals, 2.42 times for oil seeds, 2.15 times for other agricultural products and 2.13 times for livestock products. Africa s food demand was 7.8% of global food demand in 2000, but it will expand to 11.0% by. In Asia, the total demand increase is projected to be 1.78 times, exceeding the rate of population increase (1.4 times). This is because strong economic growth is expected to support a steady increase in food demand. When looking at each type of commodity, demand will increase by 1.64 times for cereals, 2.31 times for oil seeds, 1.80 times for other agricultural products and 1.99 times for livestock products. As intermediate countries occupy a larger percentage in Asia than in Africa, the total demand increase in Asia is smaller than in Africa. Food demand in Asia will account for 43.8% of global food demand in, increasing from 38.3% in 2000 (cf. the Asian population will account for 51.0% of the world population in ). Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Total Fig.2-10 Changes in food demand by region Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks total Demand (million t) Share (of) Share (ofincome) Demand (million t) Share (of) Share (ofincome) Demand (million t) Share (of) Share (ofincome) Demand (million t) Share (of) Share (ofincome) Demand (million t) Share (of) % 44.1% % 1.3% % 57.4% % 13.4% % % 53.2% % 1.8% % 67.6% % 15.6% % / % 2.5% 9.2% 242.0% 0.8% 0.4% 215.0% 5% 10.3% 212.9% 2.1% 2.2% 217.0% 3.1% % 42.4% % 8.8% % 9.4% % 21.0% % % 45.2% % 7.7% % 8.1% % 18.1% % / % 1.1% 2.8% 125.3% 5.9% 1.1% 123.7% 0.5% 1.3% 123.3% 3.2% 2.9% 138.7% 1.2% % 17.4% % 6.4% % 66.4% % 11.4% % % 18.5% % 6.7% % 44.2% % 10.3% 1, % / % 0.3% 1.1% 157.1% 1.3% 0.4% 99.0% 11% 22.2% 134.5% 1.4% 1.1% 116.8% 4.8% % 48.6% % 4.6% % 37.9% % 14.4% 1, % 1, % 49.3% % 6.6% 1, % 42.2% % 17.7% 3, % / % -0.2% +0.6% 230.6% 12.1% 2% 180.3% 9% 4.3% 198.8% 9.3% 3.3% 177.5% 5.5% % 41.2% % 5.1% % 21.5% % 29.4% % % 43.6% % 4.0% % 17.5% % 22.9% 1, % / % 1% 2.4% 115.4% 5.5% 1.1% 119.7% 1.9% 4% 114.7% 7.4% 6.5% 133.2% 2.5% % 72.7% % 3.0% % 23.6% % 27.7% % % 74.5% % 2.8% % 15.5% % 30.1% % / % 0.1% 1.8% 156.7% 0.1% 0.1% 107.3% 0.4% 8% 177.0% 0.6% 2.4% 157.8% 0.1% % 13.8% % 1.9% % 35.8% % 9.7% % % 15.7% % 2.1% % 30.8% % 8.4% % / % 0.1% 1.9% 163.6% 0% 0.1% 132.9% 0.2% 5% 134.8% 0.1% 1.2% 143.9% 0.1% , % 39.8% % 5.3% 1, % 37.2% % 17.7% 4, % 2, % 42.2% % 5.7% 2, % 34.8% 1, % 17.2% 6, % / % 0.0% 2.4% 166.6% 0.0% 0.4% 145.2% 0.0% 2.4% 151.1% 0.0% 0.5% 155.1% 0.0% 10

14 <Per capita food demand will increase in Asia and Africa.> Per capita food demand is projected to increase by 1.39 times from the 2000 level in Africa, 1.16 times in Europe and 1.12 times in Asia. In Asia, per capita demand for all types of commodities except for other agricultural products will increase. In particular, demand for oil seeds and livestock products such as meat and milk will increase as income levels increase. The demand for oil seeds in Asia will increase to 1.70 times the 2000 level and demand for livestock products will increase to 1.58 times. Per capita food demand will increase for all types of commodities in Europe. This is because of demand increases in Eastern European countries and Russia. In particular, demand for livestock products will grow significantly. Fig.2-11 Changes in food demand pre capita by region (ton/capira/year) Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks total Africa / % 115.7% 215.9% 109.5% 139.5% North America / % 106.8% 102.3% 106.6% 104.7% Latin America / % 107.8% 72.1% 97.3% 82.0% Asia / % 169.8% 93.4% 158.3% 111.9% Europe / % 115.2% 106.0% 123.1% 115.9% Middle East / % 89.8% 57.1% 102.9% 84.5% Oceania / % 107.8% 99.6% 103.0% 100.5% Total / % 105.3% 102.9% 99.1% 101.0% 11

15 2.5 Changes in the net export/import structure <Net exports from developed countries and net imports to developing countries will increase.> In developed countries, net exports of cereals, oil seeds and livestock products are projected to increase when the 2000 figures and the figures are compared. Exports of other agricultural products will also exceed imports by. On the other hand, in developing countries, net imports of cereals and livestock products are projected to grow. For other agricultural products, imports will greatly exceed exports by. In intermediate countries, net imports of oil seeds and livestock products will increase and net exports of other agricultural products will increase. Developing Intermediate Developed Fig.2-12 Net export/import by income class (Unit: thousand tons) Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Total export (kt) import (kt) , % % 1, % 6, % 1, % 25, % 93, % % 168, % 79, % 0 0.0% 343, % / % 98% % 0% , % 4, % 10, % 8, % 10, % 92, % 23, % 17, % 133, % 81, % 133, % 123, % / % 348% 1316% 958% 1316% , % 5, % 11, % 14, % 117, % 11, % 117, % 18, % 35, % 161, % 332, % 0 0.0% / % 309% % 283% Note1) Positive value means "Net export" and Negative( with " ") "Net Import". Note2) The value of " " shows the ratio of total net export (import) in the income class to that in the world when the value in the row of "kt" is positive (negative). 12

16 <The excess of imports over exports will increase in Africa and Asia, while some regions will become net exporters.> When comparing the 2000 figures and the figures, it is projected that the populations will increase and economies will grow in developing countries and intermediate countries in Africa and Asia, and in the process production increases in some areas will not be able to catch up with expanding demand. This will create a gap between production and consumption, and trade will become important for striking the supply-demand balance. As a result, there will be changes in net exporting areas and net importing areas when comparing the two points in time (2000 and ). Trade volumes will also increase in some regions. Latin America, which was a net importing region for cereals in 2000, is projected to become a net exporting region by. The trade structure for oil seeds will not change and North America, Latin America and Oceania will remain the exporters of oil seeds, as they have been up to Regarding other agricultural products, Europe will become an exporting area while Africa and Asia will become importing areas by. Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Fig.2-13 Net export/import by region (Unit: thousand tons) Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Total export (kt) import (kt) , % % % 7, % % 49, % 127, % 5, % 40, % 37, % 0 0.0% 210, % / % 622% - 510% 0% , % 30, % % 11, % 130, % 11, % 139, % 42, % 9, % 20, % 202, % 9, % / % 137% 4027% - 154% , % 12, % % 8, % 13, % 27, % 26, % 63, % 167, % 2, % 259, % 0 0.0% / % 29572% % , % 26, % 9, % 15, % 9, % 98, % 66, % 88, % 130, % 127, % 0 0.0% 412, % / % 335% - 796% 0% , % 15, % 10, % 29, % 48, % 25, % 21, % 13, % 7, % 129, % 158, % 13, % / % 89% - 438% 327% , % 2, % % 3, % 0 0.0% 28, % 22, % 3, % % 13, % 0 0.0% 40, % / % 155% 441% 419% #DIV/0! , % 1, % 3 0.0% 16, % 38, % 3 0.0% 28, % 5, % 6, % 25, % 66, % 0 0.0% / % 383% - 154% 171% Note1) Positive value means "Net export" and Negative( with " ") "Net Import". Note2) The value of " " shows the ratio of total net export (import) in the region to that in the world when the value in the row of "kt" is positive (negative). 13

17 2.6 Per-capita calorie intake <Per-capita calorie intake will increase for all income classes.> When looking at calorie intake per person per day from the crops covered by the projections, per capita calorie intake will increase for all income classes. In particular, calorie intake from oil seeds and livestock products will increase significantly in intermediate countries. Fig.2-14 Changes in per-capita calories intake by income class (graph) (kcal/capita/day) 3,000.0 Livestocks Other Oil Seeds Cereals 2, , , , Developing Intermediate Developed Total Fig.2-15 Changes in per-capita calories intake by income class (table) (Unit: kcal/capita/day) Cereals Oil Seeds other Livestocks Total Developing Intermediate Developed Total , , , ,742.8 / % 100% 119% 102% 104% , , , ,257.9 / % 143% 100% 142% 108% , ,390.5 / % 105% 99% 103% 103% , , , ,983.9 / % 106% 109% 104% 102% 14

18 2.7 Trends for each crop (1) Wheat <North America and Oceania will still be the two major supply areas in.> The production of wheat in is projected to increase by 1.58 times from the 2000 level. When looking at the figures for different income classes, it is projected that developing countries will increase their wheat production levels by 1.94 times, pushing the global wheat production increase. However, demand for wheat will increase by 2.07 times due to population increases and economic development, and therefore import demand in developing countries will also increase. In intermediate countries, the production level will increase by 1.63 times and the demand will increase by 1.49 times. The excess of imports over exports will remain the same in these countries. The demand for wheat in intermediate countries will continue to take up a large percentage of the global demand for wheat (over 50% in both 2000 and ). In developed countries, production and demand are projected to grow in similar percentages. They will continue to be net exporters, supplying wheat to intermediate countries and developing countries. Fig.2-16 Changes in supply of wheat and demand by income class (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Developing Intermediate Developed Fig.2-17 Changes in supply of wheat and demand by income class (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Developing % % / % 207% % % Intermediate % % / % 149% % % Developed % % / % 139% % % Total % % / % 158% 15

19 When looking at each region, production levels are projected to increase greatly in Asia and Europe. Demand is also projected to increase greatly in Asia and Europe. Africa will see a dramatic demand increase to 1.98 times the 2000 level. When looking at North America, Europe and Oceania which were the suppliers of wheat in 2000, Europe is projected to remain a net exporter although its capacity to export will decrease due to its demand increases by. North America and Oceania are projected to increase their capacity to export from the 2000 levels. Fig.2-18 Changes in supply of wheat and demand by region (graph) (milloin tons) Supply Demand Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Fig.2-19 Changes in supply of wheat and demand by region (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Africa % % / % 198% % % North % % America / % 137% % % Latin % % America / % 135% % % Asia % % / % 160% % % Europe % % / % % % Middle East % % / % 167% % % Oceania % % / % 165% % % Total % % / % 158% 16

20 (2) Rice <Demand will surge in developing countries and intermediate countries will become the suppliers.> The production level for rice in is projected to increase to 1.53 times the 2000 level. When looking at each income class, developing countries are projected to achieve the highest production increase, reaching 1.82 times the 2000 level. However, they will become net importers by since demand will increase by 1.86 times due to population increases and economic development. Intermediate countries are projected to become net exporters by because production increases (1.35 times) will exceed demand increases (1.31 times). Regarding each income class s share of global demand for rice, developing countries share is projected to increase from 42% to 51% while the intermediate countries share will decrease from 53% to 45%. However, the structure where these two income classes account for approx. 95% of global demand will remain the same in Fig.2-20 Changes in supply of rice and demand by income class (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Developing Intermediate Developed Fig.2-21 Changes in supply of rice and demand by income class (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Developing % % / % 186% % % Intermediate % % / % 131% % % Developed % % / % 120% % % Total % % / % 153% 17

21 <Demand will surge in Africa and Asia will become the supplier.> When looking at each region, Asia will still account for approx. 90% of the global supply and demand for rice in. Asia s capacity to export is projected to increase since production increases (1.54 times the 2000 level) will outstrip demand increases (1.51 times the 2000 level) in the region. As for other regions, Africa and Latin America are projected to increase their production levels greatly. Regarding demand, the demand for rice in Africa will increase dramatically and net imports to the region will expand from the 2000 level. Fig.2-22 Changes in supply of rice and demand by region (graph) (milloin tons) Supply Demand Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Fig.2-23 Changes in supply of rice and demand by region (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Africa % % / % 237% % % North % % America / % 123% % % Latin % % America / % 133% % % Asia % % / % 151% % % Europe % % / % % % Middle East % % / % 194% % % Oceania % % / % 134% % % Total % % / % 153% 18

22 (3) Maize <Latin America will take place of one of the major suppliers in the world, with North America by.> The production level for maize in is projected to increase by 1.78 times from the 2000 level. With regard to each income class, the developing countries are projected to increase their demand to 2.71 times the 2000 level while their production level will increase by 1.93 times. As a result, their imports will greatly exceed their exports. Intermediate countries are expected to turn net exporters as their production exceeds their demand as a result of larger production increases (1.99 times) than the demand increases (1.81 times). In developed countries, the situation where exports exceed imports as of 2000 will remain the same in. Fig.2-24 Changes in supply of maize and demand by income class (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Developing Intermediate Developed Fig.2-25 Changes in supply of maize and demand by income class (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Developing % % / % 271% % % Intermediate % % / % 181% % % Developed % % / % 158% % % Total 1, % 1, % / % 178% 19

23 When looking at figures by region, production levels are projected to increase greatly in Latin America, Africa, Asia and North America. The rate of demand increases will be high in Asia and Africa where marked population increases will take place. The volume of demand increase will also be marked in Asia. Regarding exports, Latin America will become a major supplier, joining North America. Regarding imports, Asia will continue to be the main demand area. Fig.2-26 Changes in supply of maize and demand by region (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Fig.2-27 Changes in supply of maize and demand by region (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Africa % % / % 222% % % North % % America / % 157% % % Latin % % America / % 174% % % Asia % % / % 195% % % Europe % % / % % % Middle East % % / % 163% % % Oceania % % / % 301% % % Total 1, % 1, % / % 178% 20

24 (4) Soybeans <Latin America will become a larger supplier than North America. Net imports will expand in Asia.> The production level for soybeans in is projected to increase by 1.69 times from the 2000 level. When looking at each income class, developing countries are projected to become net exporters by since their production will increase by 2.18 times while their demand will increase by 1.88 times. Intermediate countries are projected to remain consumers since their imports will continue to outstrip their exports although both their production and demand are projected to increase by two fold. Developed countries will remain suppliers since production will increase by 1.25 times while demand will increase by only 1.23 times. Fig.2-28 Changes in supply of soybeans and demand by income class (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Developing Intermediate Developed Fig.2-29 Changes in supply of soybeans and demand by income class (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Developing % % / % 188% % % Intermediate % % / % 209% % % Developed % % / % 123% % % Total % % / % 169% 21

25 When looking at each region, it is projected that production will increase by 2.29 times and demand will increase only by 1.62 times in Latin America. As a result, it will become the largest supplier since its capacity to export will increase. North America is projected to remain a supplier. On the contrary, Asia will remain a consumer since its demand increases will greatly exceed its production increases. In Europe, although the rate of production increase is projected to outstrip the rate of demand increase, its production will still be short of its demand and it will remain a consumer. Fig.2-30 Changes in supply of soybeans and demand by region (graph) (million tons) Supply Demand Africa North America Latin America Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Fig.2-31 Changes in supply of soybeans and demand by region (table, million tons) Supply Demand(Food and Feed) % % Africa % % / % 264% % % North % % America / % 126% % % Latin % % America / % 162% % % Asia % % / % 242% % % Europe % % / % % % Middle East % % / % 186% % % Oceania % % / % 315% % % Total % % / % 169% 22

26 2.8 Supply and Demand in Major Countries The following explains supply and demand projections for major countries for, by comparing with (1) Japan <Japan will remain a net importer despite the decline in population, but it will have capacity to export rice.> The population of Japan is projected to decline by 13.4% by from the 2000 level to approximately 110 million, while GDP is projected to increase by 1.48 times. This will make GDP per capita 1.71 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-32 Population and GDP growth in Japan Japan 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 126, % 109, % 86.6% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) 3, % 5, % 147.8% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 28,967 49, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will be 100% of the 2000 level for cereals, 134% for oil seeds, 100% for other agricultural products and 165% for livestock products. As for demand projections, demand will increase to 114% of the 2000 level for cereals, decrease to 90% for oil seeds, 86% for other agricultural products and 86% for livestock products, i.e. demand for commodities other than cereals will decrease as the population shrinks. Despite these decreases in demand, Japan is projected to remain a net importer of cereals and oil seeds since the production increases will not be able to cover the import volumes as of In contrast, Japan will become a net exporter of other agricultural products as a result of the decline in demand. Japan was one of the top five importers of wheat, maize and soybeans in It is projected that wheat production will increase to 109% of the 2000 level while the demand for wheat will decrease to 93%. This will result in a reduction in imports to 91% of the 2000 level although imports will continue to exceed exports. Similarly, imports of soybeans in will decline to 90% of the 2000 level as a result of decreases in demand and increases in production. However, imports of maize will increase to 149% of the 2000 level due to demand increases. It is projected that the production of rice will remain 100% of the 2000 base year level and demand will decline to 86%, creating exporting capacity. As a result, Japan is expected to export 676,000 tons of rice in. 23

27 Supply Demand net import and export net import / demand net export / production Fig.2-33 food supply and demand in Japan Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total thousand tons 8, , ,240 2, ,255 1,208 17, % 0.11% 1.92% 0.00% 0.11% 0.14% 0.32% 0.38% 0.87% 1.40% 1.78% thousand tons 8, , ,240 4, ,279 1,878 19, % 0.08% 1.25% 0.00% 0.09% 0.11% 0.23% 0.41% 0.87% 1.40% 1.78% / % 109% 100% 0% 134% 134% 100% 165% 149% 182% 155% 112% thousand tons 35,816 6,307 8,176 16,400 7,266 5,067 5,743 5,728 1,425 2,284 2,019 54, % 1.08% 2.04% 2.74% 3.05% 3.06% 0.35% 0.72% 2.44% 2.55% 2.97% thousand tons 40,840 5,835 7,029 24,497 6,575 4,688 4,926 4,913 1,222 1,959 1,732 57, % 0.63% 1.14% 2.30% 1.65% 1.67% 0.20% 0.41% 1.41% 1.20% 1.64% / % 93% 86% 149% 90% 93% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 105% 2000 thousand tons 27,246 5, ,400 7,028 4, , , ,531 thousand tons 32,246 5, ,497 6,255 4, ,186 Japan / Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 118% 91% - 149% 89% 90% % % 76% 90% 6% 100% 97% 95% 9% 48% 64% 45% 40% 69% 79% 88% 9% 100% 95% 93% 6% 0% 38% 14% 8% 67% Fig.2-34 Changes in food production in Japan (thousand tons) ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-35 Changes in food demand in Japan (thousand tons) ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 24

28 (2) United State of America <United State of America will hold a firm position as the world food supplier.> United State of America (The U.S.) population in is projected to increase by 25.1% from the 2000 level, reaching approx. 350 million. Its GDP is also projected to grow by 2.08 times, making GDP per capita 1.66 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-36 Population and GDP growth in United State of America United States of America 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 277, % 347, % 125.1% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) 7, % 16, % 207.9% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 28,417 47, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will be 148% of the 2000 level for cereals, 125% for oil seeds, 109% for other agricultural products and 159% for livestock products. As for demand projections, demand will increase to 156% of the 2000 level for cereals, 124% for oil seeds, 124% for other agricultural products and 124% for livestock products. The U.S. was a net importer of other agricultural products in 2000 and net imports will expand by since production increases are projected to be lower than the demand increases. However, the U.S. will continue to be a net exporter of cereals, oil seeds and livestock products, as it was in The U.S. is the world s top food supplier. It was the world s largest exporter of wheat, maize and soybeans in 2000 as well as one of the top five suppliers of rice. Production increases are projected to outstrip demand increases for wheat and soybeans by. Although increases in rice and maize production are projected to be lower than the demand increases, exports of rice and maize will continue to exceed imports and the net export volumes will even increase when compared to the 2000 levels. Therefore, the U.S. will continue to hold a firm position as the world s top food supplier. United States of America Supply Demand net import and export net import / demand net export / production Fig.2-37 Food supply and demand in United State of America Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons thousand tons 328, ,815 58,775 81,067 6,173 7, , ,334 77,858 97,434 75,316 94,058 59,791 64,917 37,239 59,346 12,134 18,051 8,682 15,765 16,423 25, , , % 16.59% 10.04% 8.78% 1.54% 1.17% 40.74% 34.70% 36.50% 26.81% 45.47% 33.57% 3.60% 2.89% 4.71% 4.97% 20.80% 20.80% 9.68% 9.68% 24.14% 24.14% / % 138% 117% 151% 125% 125% 109% 159% 149% 182% 155% 140% 2000 thousand tons thousand tons 246, ,811 33,505 45,181 3,861 4, , ,142 51,367 63,800 48,847 60,716 59,990 74,232 34,890 43,209 12,534 15,523 8,518 10,549 13,837 17, , , % 25.00% 5.72% 4.89% 0.96% 0.78% 32.64% 28.95% 21.54% 16.06% 29.49% 21.67% 3.61% 3.08% 4.41% 3.62% 21.49% 17.89% 9.50% 6.48% 20.34% 16.20% / % 135% 124% 157% 124% 124% 124% 124% 124% 124% 124% 144% 2000 thousand tons 82,391 25,270 2,312 48,607 26,490 26, , , ,032 thousand tons 101,005 35,886 2,416 61,193 33,634 33,342 9,315 16,137 2,528 5,216 8, ,461 / % 142% 105% 126% 127% 126% 4683% 687% % 325% 127% % 43% 37% 20% 34% 35% 0% 6% 3% 2% 16% 22% 21% 44% 34% 17% 35% 35% 13% 27% 14% 33% 33% 20% Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 25

29 Fig.2-38 Changes in food production in United State of America (thousand tons) , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-39 Changes in food demand in United State of America (thousand tons) , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 26

30 (3) China <With a population which accounts for one sixth of the global population and rapid economic development, China will become a major food importer as demand for food increases.> The Chinese population in is projected to reach 1.52 billion, increasing by 18.7% from the 2000 level. Its GDP will increase by a remarkable 14.7 times, resulting in an increase in GDP per capita to 12.4 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-40 Population and GDP growth in China China 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 1,283, % 1,522, % 118.7% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) 1, % 18, % % 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) , % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will dramatically increase to 153% of the 2000 level for cereals, 169% for oil seeds, 159% for other agricultural products and 173% for livestock products. Demand will increase at an even higher rate than the rate of production increases due to economic development and population increases. Demand is projected to increase to 148% of the 2000 level for cereals, 288% for oil seeds, 215% for other agricultural products and 259% for livestock products. This will result in substantial increases in imports of all food commodities except for wheat. With regard to the major commodities, China was one of the top five exporters of maize in 2000, but it is projected to become a net importer by since demand will increase at a higher rate (reaching 194% of the 2000 level) than production (184%). China was world s largest importer of soybeans in 2000 and its import volumes in will surge to 522% of the 2000 level due to demand increases. China exported 943,000 tons of rice in 2000, but it is projected to import 8.66 million tons of rice in. On the other hand, it will become a net exporter of wheat by since demand will increase at a lower rate (reaching 127% of the 2000 level) than production (160%). Regarding livestock products, export volumes for beef, pork and chicken will dramatically increase by. Fig.2-41 Food supply and demand in China China Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 351, , , ,240 27,774 15,021 88,149 58,208 5,114 40,769 12, , % 17.50% 31.53% 19.39% 13.02% 9.07% 5.31% 7.36% 8.77% 45.45% 18.11% Supply thousand tons 535, , , ,370 46,946 20, , ,795 7,608 74,028 19, , % 17.70% 23.82% 20.14% 12.92% 7.49% 6.22% 8.44% 8.77% 45.45% 18.11% / % 160% 116% 184% 169% 140% 159% 173% 149% 182% 155% 157% 2000 thousand tons 355, , , ,745 41,787 26,633 92,654 59,360 5,264 40,906 13, , % 18.11% 31.30% 19.14% 17.52% 16.08% 5.58% 7.51% 9.02% 45.60% 19.38% Demand thousand tons 525, , , , ,486 81, , ,862 14, ,463 35, , % 14.56% 25.22% 20.88% 30.32% 29.14% 8.27% 12.88% 16.27% 64.13% 33.36% / % 127% 124% 194% 288% 307% 215% 259% 268% 255% 268% 182% 2000 thousand tons 3,939 3, ,495 14,013 11,612 4,505 1, ,609 net import and export thousand tons 10,559 29,065 8,663 7,882 73,541 60,663 59,552 53,067 6,506 30,435 16, ,600 / % 522% 1322% 4606% 4355% 22158% 1864% 744% net import / demand % 3% 1% 1% 34% 44% 5% 2% 3% 0% 7% 4% net export / 2% 18% 6% 4% 61% 74% 30% 34% 46% 29% 46% 18% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 27

31 Fig.2-42 Changes in food production in China (thousand tons) , , , , , ,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-43 Changes in food demand in China (thousand tons) , , , , , ,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 28

32 (4) France <France will continue to have the capacity to export wheat, maize and livestock products.> The French population in is projected to be approximately 58 million, down 1.2% from the 2000 level, while its GDP will increase by 1.71 times. This will make GDP per capita 1.73 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-44 Population and GDP growth in France France 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 59, % 58, % 98.8% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) 1, % 2, % 171.3% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 25,693 44, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will increase to 147% of the 2000 level for cereals, 113% for oil seeds (rapeseed, etc.) and 144% for other agricultural products. France is projected to remain an exporter of cereals, oil seeds and livestock products in. It will also become a net exporter of other agricultural products as a result of substantial production increases although it was a net importer in France is ranked one of world s top five exporters of wheat and maize. The export volumes for maize are projected to increase to 293% of the 2000 base year level since production will increase to 219% of the base year level while demand will increase only to 151%. For wheat, exports will continue to exceed imports, but export volumes will go down to 92% of the 2000 level because production will increase only to 121% of the 2000 level while demand will increase to 151%. Fig.2-45 Food supply and demand in France France Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 61,307 35, ,928 5, ,294 6,101 1,568 2,327 2, , % 6.03% 0.02% 2.66% 2.64% 0.16% 1.82% 0.77% 2.69% 2.59% 3.24% Supply thousand tons 90,222 42, ,845 6, ,578 9,988 2,332 4,225 3, , % 4.65% 0.02% 3.27% 1.74% 0.11% 1.94% 0.84% 2.69% 2.59% 3.24% / % 121% 134% 219% 113% 119% 144% 164% 149% 182% 155% 145% 2000 thousand tons 30,172 17, ,353 3, ,429 5,416 1,592 2,221 1,603 69, % 3.03% 0.10% 1.39% 1.67% 0.55% 1.83% 0.68% 2.73% 2.48% 2.36% Demand thousand tons 45,892 26, ,632 5,095 2,016 29,756 5,299 1,558 2,173 1,568 86, % 2.89% 0.06% 1.19% 1.28% 0.72% 1.23% 0.44% 1.80% 1.33% 1.48% / % 151% 98% 151% 128% 221% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 123% 2000 thousand tons 31,136 17, ,575 1, ,327 net import and export thousand tons 44,329 16, ,213 1,239 1,710 13,822 4, ,052 1,862 64,078 / % 92% 90% 293% 75% 261% - 684% % 308% 192% net import / demand % 50% 81% 48% 29% 72% 0% 11% 2% 5% 27% 32% net export / 49% 38% 74% 64% 20% 85% 32% 47% 33% 49% 54% 43% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 29

33 Fig.2-46 Changes in food production in France (thousand tons) ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-47 Changes in food demand in France (thousand tons) ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 30

34 (5) Brazil <In addition to being the world s largest soybean supplier, Brazil will expand its net exports of maize.> The Brazilian population in is projected to increase by 43.8% from the 2000 level, reaching approximately 240 million. Its GDP is projected to expand by 7.05 times, therefore GDP per capita will increase to 4.9 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-48 Population and GDP growth in Brazil Brazil 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 169, % 243, % 143.8% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) % 4, % 705.1% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 3,977 19, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will increase to 220% of the 2000 level for cereals, 243% for oil seeds, 115% for other agricultural products (sugar cane, etc.) and 157% for livestock products. Demand is also projected to increase as the population and the economy grow. Demand will increase to 166% of the 2000 level for cereals, 152% for oil seeds and 114% for livestock products, while demand for other agricultural products will decrease to 96% of the 2000 level. Although Brazil was an importer of cereals in 2000, it is projected to become an exporter by since domestic production increases for cereals other than wheat will outstrip demand increases. Export volumes for oil seeds, other agricultural products and livestock products are projected to increase in because increases in production will be larger than increases in demand. As for the major commodities, Brazil was the world s second largest exporter of soybeans after the U.S. in Brazil is projected to increase its soybeans exports to 426% of the 2000 level since increases in soybean production will greatly exceed demand increases (production is projected to grow to 243% of the 2000 level while demand is projected to reach 153%). As a result, it will beat the U.S. and become the largest soybean exporter. Brazil s wheat production will increase to 159% of the 2000 level, outstripping the demand increase, but its wheat imports will still exceed exports in. Fig.2-49 Food supply and demand in Brazil Brazil Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 46,162 2,496 7,333 35,291 34,504 34, ,091 15,202 6,605 2,546 6, , % 0.43% 1.83% 5.89% 16.18% 20.68% 21.55% 1.92% 11.32% 2.84% 8.89% Supply thousand tons 101,467 3,981 12,732 83,243 83,818 83, ,989 23,855 9,826 4,622 9, , % 0.43% 2.07% 7.82% 23.07% 29.76% 18.29% 2.00% 11.32% 2.84% 8.89% / % 159% 174% 236% 243% 243% 115% 157% 149% 182% 155% 137% 2000 thousand tons 54,978 10,089 8,116 34,579 23,143 22, ,845 13,518 6,088 2,323 5, , % 1.72% 2.02% 5.77% 9.71% 13.82% 21.54% 1.71% 10.44% 2.59% 7.50% Demand thousand tons 91,389 12,145 10,175 66,248 35,269 34, ,424 15,430 7,109 2,719 5, , % 1.32% 1.65% 6.22% 8.88% 12.48% 14.28% 1.29% 8.19% 1.67% 5.30% / % 120% 125% 192% 152% 153% 96% 114% 117% 117% 110% 108% 2000 thousand tons 8,816 7, ,361 11, , ,475 net import and export thousand tons 10,079 8,164 2,557 16,994 48,550 48,403 66,565 8,424 2,717 1,904 3, ,617 / % % 427% 426% 27083% 500% 525% 857% 403% 2986% net import / demand % 75% 10% 2% 33% 33% 0% 11% 8% 9% 16% 1% net export / 10% 67% 20% 20% 58% 58% 16% 35% 28% 41% 40% 22% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 31

35 Fig.2-50 Changes in food production in Brazil (thousand tons) , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-51 Changes in food demand in Brazil (thousand tons) , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 32

36 (6) India <India will become a wheat exporter and a rice importer, although their supply and demand were in equilibrium in 2000.> The Indian population in is projected to reach 1.53 billion, increasing by 52.2% from the 2000 level. GDP will increase by approximately 17.0 times and the GDP per capita will reach 11.2 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-52 Population and GDP growth in India India 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 1,006, % 1,532, % 152.2% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) % 7, % % 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 419 4, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will increase to 182% of the 2000 level for cereals, 212% for oil seeds, 173% for other agricultural products and 155% for livestock products. Demand is projected to increase as the population increases and the economy develops, to 189% of the 2000 level for cereals, 176% for oil seeds, 195% for other agricultural products and 183% for livestock products. India was one of the top five exporters of rice in 2000, but imports will exceed exports by because demand is projected to increase to 178% of the 2000 level while production is projected to only increase to 164%. In contrast, exports of wheat will exceed imports since production will increase to 204% of the 2000 level while demand will increase only to 187%. It is expected that demand for livestock products will hardly grow because of religious restrictions, etc. Fig.2-53 Food supply and demand in India India Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 183,426 72,446 89,347 12,238 11,993 6, ,075 3,159 2, , % 12.37% 22.25% 2.04% 5.62% 3.69% 18.54% 0.40% 3.84% 0.52% 0.67% Supply thousand tons 333, , ,439 20,891 25,420 13, ,080 4,883 3, , % 15.97% 23.78% 1.96% 7.00% 4.86% 23.77% 0.41% 3.84% 0.52% 0.67% / % 204% 164% 171% 212% 223% 173% 155% 149% 182% 155% 177% 2000 thousand tons 182,860 72,831 88,330 12,429 11,906 6, ,949 2,954 2, , % 12.44% 22.00% 2.07% 4.99% 3.64% 18.53% 0.37% 3.47% 0.52% 0.68% Demand thousand tons 344, , ,590 32,440 20,940 9, ,814 5,410 3, , % 14.75% 25.59% 3.05% 5.27% 3.54% 24.86% 0.45% 4.25% 0.52% 0.83% / % 187% 178% 261% 176% 165% 195% 183% 182% 183% 189% 192% 2000 thousand tons , net import and export thousand tons 11,748 11,267 11,151 11,550 4,479 3,709 65, ,529 / % 5173% 4707% % 75% net import / demand % 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 7% 9% 0% 2% 0% net export / 3% 8% 7% 36% 18% 27% 11% 10% 10% 0% 19% 8% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 33

37 Fig.2-54 Changes in food production in India (thousand tons) , , , , , , ,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-55 Changes in food demand in India (thousand tons) , , , , , , ,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 34

38 (7) Russia <Food demand in Russia will increase as the economy rapidly develops, resulting in increasing food imports.> The Russian population in is projected to decline by 21.8% from the 2000 level, down to 110 million. GDP is projected to expand by 7.14 times and as a result, GDP per capita will increase to 9.13 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-56 Population and GDP growth in Russia Russian 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 146, % 114, % 78.2% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) % 3, % 713.7% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 3,251 29, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will increase to 174% of the 2000 level for cereals, 161% for oil seeds and 162% for livestock products, while production of other agricultural products will decrease to 97% of the 2000 level. On the other hand, demand is projected to increase to 170% of the 2000 level for cereals, 164% for oil seeds, 185% for other agricultural products and 168% for livestock products because demand per capita will increase as the economy grows. In, Russia will remain an importer of all types of commodities except for oil seeds, i.e. cereals, other agricultural products and livestock products, as it was in Import volumes for these commodities are projected to rise sharply due to demand increases. When looking at the major commodities, it is projected that wheat production will increase to 154% of the 2000 level and demand for wheat will increase to 171%. This will result in demand exceeding production and import volumes will increase. Fig.2-57 Food supply and demand in Russia Russian Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 53,755 37, ,149 4, ,612 4,184 1,878 1, , % 6.40% 0.08% 0.19% 1.92% 0.21% 0.88% 0.53% 3.22% 1.69% 1.16% Supply thousand tons 93,399 57, ,417 6, ,170 6,775 2,794 2,755 1, , % 6.25% 0.07% 0.13% 1.82% 0.27% 0.63% 0.57% 3.22% 1.69% 1.16% / % 154% 124% 123% 161% 221% 97% 162% 149% 182% 155% 158% 2000 thousand tons 58,018 39, ,754 3, ,609 5,878 2,399 1,894 1,585 82, % 6.83% 0.19% 0.29% 1.49% 0.24% 0.88% 0.74% 4.11% 2.11% 2.33% Demand thousand tons 98,511 68,450 1,319 3,037 5, ,995 9,873 4,015 3,182 2, , % 7.41% 0.21% 0.29% 1.46% 0.35% 1.12% 0.83% 4.63% 1.95% 2.53% / % 171% 172% 173% 164% 243% 185% 168% 167% 168% 169% 172% 2000 thousand tons 4,264 2, , ,405 net import and export thousand tons 5,112 10, , ,825 3,098 1, ,451 20,226 / % 432% 210% 268% 147% 363% - 183% 234% 113% 182% 374% net import / demand % 6% 56% 35% 13% 15% 0% 29% 22% 20% 50% 7% net export / 5% 16% 68% 53% 12% 23% 48% 31% 30% 13% 54% 14% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 35

39 Fig.2-58 Changes in food production in Russia (thousand tons) , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-59 Changes in food demand in Russia (thousand tons) , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 36

40 (8) Australia <Australia will remain a major supplier of cereals and livestock products.> The population of Australia is projected to reach 25 million in, increasing by 34.2% from the 2000 level, but GDP is projected to grow only by 1.48 times, making the GDP per capita (in ) 1.1 times the 2000 level. Fig.2-60 Population and GDP growth in Australia Australia 2000 share share growth 2000 growth Population(thousand) 18, % 25, % 134.2% 6,034,463 9,249, % GDP(billion US$) % % 147.8% 29, , % GDP per capita (US$) 20,295 22, % 4,831 11, % Regarding food production projections, production levels will increase to 154% of the 2000 level for cereals, 123% for oil seeds (rapeseed, etc.), 146% for other agricultural products and 154% for livestock products. As for demand projections, demand will increase to 168% of the 2000 level for cereals, 172% for oil seeds, 133% for other agricultural products and 133% for livestock products. The situation in 2000 where exports of cereals, oil seeds and livestock products exceeded imports will remain the same in and Australia will continue to be a major food supplier. Australia was in the world s top five wheat exporters in It will remain a net exporter although demand increases are projected to outstrip production increases (since demand will reach 155% of the 2000 level while production will only reach 144%). Export volumes are projected to increase by 40% from the 2000 level. Fig.2-61 Food supply and demand in Australia Australia Cereals Wheat Rice Maize Oil Seeds Soybeans other Livestocks bovine meat pig meat poultry meat total 2000 thousand tons 33,673 23, , ,327 3,033 2, , % 4.05% 0.23% 0.06% 1.04% 0.05% 2.13% 0.38% 3.50% 0.41% 0.93% Supply thousand tons 52,019 34,202 1, , ,635 4,674 3, , % 3.70% 0.18% 0.07% 0.75% 0.05% 2.30% 0.39% 3.50% 0.41% 0.93% / % 144% 120% 212% 123% 146% 146% 154% 149% 182% 155% 150% 2000 thousand tons 12,561 6, ,348 1, , % 1.18% 0.08% 0.05% 0.32% 0.10% 2.13% 0.22% 1.38% 0.39% 0.91% Demand thousand tons 21,077 10, , ,973 2,360 1, , % 1.16% 0.07% 0.05% 0.33% 0.19% 1.95% 0.20% 1.23% 0.29% 0.78% / % 155% 133% 181% 172% 306% 133% 133% 133% 133% 133% 142% 2000 thousand tons 21,112 16, , ,257 1, ,802 net import and export thousand tons 30,942 23, , ,662 2,314 1, ,330 / % 140% 114% 452% 97% 472% - 184% 159% 2014% 1405% 165% net import / demand % 71% 67% 11% 65% 49% 0% 41% 61% 3% 2% 32% net export / 59% 69% 63% 24% 52% 76% 9% 50% 65% 29% 16% 35% d ti Number with means Import and its percentage of the total; Normal is Export, percentage is also. 37

41 Fig.2-62Changes in food production in Australia (thousand tons) ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks Fig.2-63 Changes in food demand in Australia (thousand tons) ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cereals Oil Seeds Other Livestocks 38

42 2.9 Biofuels Global demand for biofuels 3 will increase by 33 times from 1,894 million liter in 2000 to 61,833 million liter by. When looking at each fuel type, demand for bioethanol will increase from 1,876 million liter to 54,886 million liter and demand for biodiesel will increase from 18 million liter to 6,947 million liter. (million liter) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,894 Fig.2-64 Increases in demand for biofuels 61,833 6,668 1,876 54,886 6, ,947 (million liter) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, , (reference) (reference) (reference) Total biofuel (left axis) Bioethanol (left axis) Biodiesel (right axis) Note) Reference amounts in 2007 were calculated by "OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook " (OECD and FAO, 2011) and "Biofuels and Food Markets -beyond the competition Energy and Food-" (Tatuji Koizumi, 2009 in Japanese). Regarding global biofuel production, it was assumed that the production of conventional (first-generation) biofuels from edible crops will remain mainstream until 2020 and then increases in demand from 2020 onwards will be covered by the production of second-generation biofuels from inedible cellulosic materials enabled by technological innovations. Demand for crops needed to produce biofuels is shown in Figure Demand increases for sugar cane will be largest for bioethanol production and demand increases for soybeans will be the largest for biodiesel production. There will be 70,885 thousand tons of demand for sugar cane for bioethanol production and 65,060 thousand tons of demand for soybeans for biodiesel production in. Fig.2-65 Increases in crop demand for biofuels (Uint: thousand tons) 2000 Wheat Rice Maize 13, , Bioethanol Biodiesel Barley Sorghum Cassava Sugarcane 185, , Sugarbeet , Soybeans , Rapeseed Palm Sunflower Countries which accounted for top 80% of the world s bioethanol production and biodiesel production in were included in making projections on biofuels. The countries covered were France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Hungary, U.S., China and Brazil for bioethanol and France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Portugal, U.K., Poland, Belgium, U.S., Malaysia, Argentina and India for biodiesel. 39

43 As shown in Figure 2-66 and Figure 2-67, the total demand for crops planted for bioethanol production and the total demand for crops planed for biodiesel production will grow greatly. It is projected that the total demand for bioethanol crops will increase to 4.7 times the 2000 level and the total demand for biodiesel crops will jump to 151 times the 2000 level. The total demand for crops planted for biofuel production is projected to increase by approx. 5.1 times from the 2000 level. Fig.2-66 Increases in crop demand for bioehanol Wheat Rice Maize (thousand Barley Sorghum Cassava tonne) Sugarcane Sugarbeet 1,000, , , , , , , , , , Fig.2-67 Increases in crop demand for biodiesel Soybeans Rapeseed (thousand and Mustard tonne) Palm Sunflower 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, As a result, the area of land planted with crops for biofuel production is projected to reach million hectares worldwide in (equivalent to approx. 6.5% of the total area planted with the respective crops for all purposes in 2000). When looking at different biofuel types, the area planted with crops for bioethanol production will expand to 26,480 thousand hectares (equivalent to 4.2% of the total area planted with the respective crops for all purposes in 2000) and the area of land planted with crops for biodiesel production will expand to 23,030 thousand hectares (17.6%). When looking at each crop, the area planted with sugar cane and soybeans will increase dramatically and reach 10,947 thousand hectares (57.5% of the total area planted with the respective crops for all purposes in 2000) and 20,034 thousand hectares (27.0%), respectively. Fig.2-68 Increases in harvested area for bioehanol Fig.2-69 Increases in harvested area for biodiesel (thousand tons) 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 0 Wheat Rice Maize Barley Sorghum Cassava Sugarcane Sugarbeet 2000 (thousand tons) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Soybeans Palm Rapeseed and Mustard Sunflower

44 The tables below show changes in the area planted with crops for biofuel production around the world,united States of America, Brazil and EU. Fig.2-70 Increases in Harvested Area for Biofuels in the world (thousand ha) Harvested Area Harvested Area for Biofuels Fig.2-71 Increases in Harvested Area for Biofuels in United States of America (thousand ha) Harvested Area Harvested Area for Biofuels HA(2000) HA(2000) Wheat 214, , % % Rice 152, , % % Maize 133, , , % 13, % Barley 54, , % % Bioethanol Sorghum 40, , % % Cassava 14, , % % Sugarcane 19, , , % 10, % Sugarbeet 5, , % % total 635, , , % 26, % Soybeans 74, , % 20, % Rapeseed Biodiesel and Mustard 25, , % 2, % Palm 9, , % % Sunflower 20, , % % total 130, , % 23, % total 765, , , % 49, % Data of Harvested Area is from FAOSTAT HA(2000) HA(2000) Wheat 21, , % % Rice 1, , % % Maize 29, , , % 11, % Barley 2, , % % Bioethanol Sorghum 3, , % % Cassava Sugarcane % % Sugarbeet % % total 58, , , % 11, % Soybeans 29, , % 9, % Rapeseed Biodiesel and Mustard % % Palm Sunflower 1, % % total 30, , % 9, % total 89, , , % 21, % Data of Harvested Area is from FAOSTAT 41

45 Fig.2-72 Increases in Harvested Area for Biofuels in Brazil (thousand ha) Harvested Area Harvested Area for Biofuels Fig.2-73 Increases in Harvested Area for Biofuels in EU (thousand ha) Harvested Area Harvested Area for Biofuels HA(2000) HA(2000) Wheat 1, , % % Rice 3, , % % Maize 11, , % % Barley % % Bioethanol Sorghum % % Cassava 1, , % % Sugarcane 4, , , % 10, % Sugarbeet total 23, , , % 10, % Soybeans 13, , % % Rapeseed Biodiesel and Mustard % % Palm % % Sunflower % % total 13, , % % total 37, , , % 10, % Data of Harvested Area is from FAOSTAT HA(2000) HA(2000) Wheat 19, , % % Rice % % Maize 5, , % % Barley 10, , % % Bioethanol Sorghum % % Cassava Sugarcane % % Sugarbeet 2, , % % total 38, , % 2, % Soybeans % % Rapeseed Biodiesel and Mustard 3, , % 2, % Palm Sunflower 2, , % % total 5, , % 2, % total 44, , % 4, % Data of Harvested Area is from FAOSTAT 42

46 3. Conclusion Global food production in is projected to reach 6.93 billion tons, increasing by 1.6 times from the 2000 level, exceeding the projected global population growth (1.5 times). Although the population is projected to increase only by 1.5 times, GDP will increase by 3.8 times as the economy continues to expand, resulting in a 2.5 times increase in GDP per capita. Food demand in developing countries and intermediate countries (as of 2000) is projected to increase and reach 2.06 times the 2000 level (2.13 billion tons) in developing countries and 1.46 times (3.32 billion tons) in intermediate countries in. As a result, food demand in developing countries and intermediate countries will account for 79% of global food demand, increasing from 74% in 2000, and this will result in a lower developed country share of global food demand, since the population increase in developed countries will be limited. When looking at the figures by region, food demand is projected to increase in Asia and Africa, reaching 3.04 billion tons (1.78 times the 2000 level) in Asia and 760 million tons (2.17 times) in Africa. As a result, the two regions share of global food demand will become approximately 55%. When looking at the balance between supply and demand worldwide, the gap between supply and demand is projected to increase towards and trade will play a more important role in adjusting the balance. In this process, some countries will grow into exporters while others will increase import volumes or become importers although they were exporters in Per capita calorie intake is projected to increase for all income classes. However, there will be countries where levels of food production increases will remain low compared to their population increases and therefore their per capita calorie intake may not increase, although rapidly growing intermediate countries are projected to increase their per capita calorie intake by increasing import volumes in order to secure food. As differences between areas which can achieve sufficient food production and areas which cannot produce sufficient amounts of food become clearer, a significant number of countries will need to rely on trade to secure food, as mentioned above. This will increase the food security risk for Japan which relies heavily on imports for its food and measures need to be taken to reduce the risk. From the global perspective, it will be necessary to take measures to increase calorie intake in developing countries because calorie intake in developing countries will remain lower than the global average. The following explains possible measures to be taken in order to solve these problems. 1) Increasing the food self-sufficiency rate in Japan and preparing various instruments for import procurement With a firm economic foundation, Japan has constantly secured food from the international market. However, it is expected that Japan s influence on the international market will be reduced as the percentage of its imports out of global trade volumes decreases, since food demand is expected to increase in developing and intermediate countries due to population increases and economic development, and import demand is expected to grow in the international market in the next 50 years. In light of this situation, the first thing that Japan needs to do is to aim at a higher food self-sufficiency rate. In addition, Japan will need to take a wide range of measures to prepare various and reliable instruments for import procurement. 43

47 2) The large influence of China and India on the global food supply and demand In the baseline projections, the yield in each country is projected with the assumption that the current trends in productivity increases, etc. will continue while taking into consideration the impact of climate change. However, they do not include the impacts of each country s political measures for obtaining food and increasing production. Therefore, the projections include cases where domestic demand increases and production increases will result in increases in import demand and decreases in the capacity to export on a global scale, particularly for grain which is the staple food. China and India where marked economic growth is taking place, will account for nearly 30% of the global population in. Therefore, changes in the projections for yield and demand in the two countries would greatly change global food supply and demand. The countries are currently taking measures which aim at achieving grain self-sufficiency. It is necessary to observe the two countries future trends closely. 3) Improving self-sufficiency rates in Asia and Africa There is a possibility that efforts to procure food through international trade will expand as a result of a growing gap between food supply and demand, and it will become difficult for less competitive countries to constantly secure food. In addition, per capita calorie intake in Africa, etc. is projected to fall below the current level although per capita calorie intake on a global average will hardly change. In order to eradicate hunger and improve nutrition globally, the projected situation will demand developing countries to constantly secure a large amount of food domestically. For this purpose, it will be necessary for them to improve their productivity through continuous yield increases and continuous agricultural investment and to increase production capacity in a carefully planned manner in order to meet demand. This will also greatly contribute to the stable supply of food in Japan which is also relying on imports. Further population concentration in urban areas and the decline in production capacity in rural areas are expected in developing countries and intermediate countries as a result of economic growth. Japan has already experienced a population increase in urban areas and depopulation in rural areas. Therefore, it will need to play active roles in sharing its ideas, experience, know-how, research and development results as well as providing technical support and financial aid with regard to maintaining rural communities, productivity and strengthening infrastructure in rural areas, as urbanization progresses. 4) Utilization of the capacity for export In the baseline projections, Japan is expected to have capacity to export rice in if the current rice production capacity is maintained, because demand is projected to decline due to population decrease. On the other hand, global demand for rice is projected to increase due to population increases and economic development. Although long grain rice is mainstream in the global market, there is room to consider vigorous long-term rice export strategies which aim to expand the market for short grain rice by combining them with PR activities to promote Japanese cuisines. There is also room to consider strategies to sell safe, reliable and high quality Japanese agricultural products to the global market where demand increases are expected, although there are negative factors for the future productivity of Japanese agriculture in terms of labor, such as the aging of agricultural populations. 44

48 Appendix Population, GDP 人口 GDP(q 国 ) (Country q) Consumption 消費量 ((Demand) 需要量 ) Fig.1 System structure Population, GDP 人口 GDP(r 国 ) (Country r) Demand 需要モデル model Consumption 消費量 ((Demand) 需要量 ) 国際貿易モデル International trade model r 国 Country r Production 生産量 ((supply) 供給量 ) Supply 供給モデル model Production 生産量 ((supply) 供給量 ) s 国 Country s 単収 Yield Harvested 収穫面積 area 単収 Yield Harvested 収穫面積 area Climate 気候条件等 condition etc. Fig.2 System structure in time series Present (in 2000) Future (in 20xx) Future (50 years later) Macroeconomic environment (per capita GDP, population) Macroeconomic environment (per capita GDP, population) Macroeconomic environment (per capita GDP, population) Demand model Demand price Demand model Demand price Demand model Demand demand demand International trade model International trade model International trade model Supply model Supply model Supply model Supply Supply Supply Yield Harvested area price Yield Harvested area price Yield Harvested area Climate change (precipitation, temperature) Climate change (precipitation, temperature) Climate change (precipitation, temperature) 45

49 Fig.3 The structure of Supply model Fig.4 The structure of Yield model 46

50 Fig.5 The structure of landuse model Fig.6 The structure of international trade model (comparison of Armingto Assumption) 47

51 Fig.7 The structure of demand model Fig.8 Modelization of feed demand 48