Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014

Transcription

1 Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014 Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain Conference, April

2 Black Sea Grain in the Global Markets

3 Black Sea Wheat in the Global Wheat Export Others USA Black Sea region EU-27 Canada Australia Argentina / / / /13

4 Black Sea Wheat Export by Country

5 Black Sea Barley Export by Country

6 Ukraine: Maize Export, KMT

7 Ukrainian Grain in the World Export EU-27 20% Australia 35% barley Ukraine 17% Russia 6% Canada 10% Argentina 9% Kazakhstan 2% Russia 3% Others 4% Kazakhstan 5% Ukraine 4% Argentina 6% Australia 16% wheat Others 12% Canada 14% USA 24% Argentina 20% EU-27 13% USA 35% corn Brazil 15% Ukraine 13% Others 9% South Africa 3% India 3% Russia 2%

8 Export Logistics in the Black Sea region. New Markets

9 Forecast of the Black Sea regions grain export Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine / /14* 2015/16* 2018/19* 2020/21*

10 Ukraine: Maize Export by Country

11 2011/12 Black Sea Grain: New Markets Others, 15% Azerbaijan, 14% China, 3% Turkey, 12% Egypt, 3% Kazakhstan Wheat export by country 2007/08 Yemen, 3% Emirates, 4% Sudan, 4% Uzbekistan, 9% Uzbekistan,1 Pakistan, 2% % Others, 6% Russia, 3% Tajikistan, 4% Tunisia, 17% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Georgia, 6% Tajikistan, 8% EU 27, 17% Turkey, 15% Iran, 7% EU, 7% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Turkmenistan, 5% Azerbaijan, 12% Egypt, 13%

12 Total transshipment Capacity of Black Sea Export Terminals, Ml mt, 2013 Ukraine 39,3 Russia 28,2 Kazakhstan 0,6

13 Ukraine: Grain Export vs. Grain Terminal Capacities grain handling capacities actual grain handling 1998/ / / / / / / / / / / /14*

14 Ukraine: All Grains + Oil crops Production vs. Storage Capacity crop storage facilities

15 More than third of crops stored at farms

16 Ukraine: modernization of storage facilities 35% 65% Old bins Modern silos

17 Ukraine: Delivery Costs to the Black Sea Export Terminals (average) Costs, USD per mt By Dnieper River 6-8 Railway By trucks * Within 250 km range of delivery

18 Grain Deliveries by River Transport railway vehicles by river 5 1 2, Brazilia Argentina USA Ukraine

19 Ukraine: River Grain Terminals

20 Ukraine: Investors in the River Grain Юнигрейн/Unigra in 2% Кернел /Kernel 2% НЗК/NGC 6% УкрАгроКом/ Ukragrocom 10% ДПЗКУ/SFGCU 13% Топфер/Toepfer 1% Terminals Інші/ Others 10% Нібулон/Nibulon 56%

21 Ukraine: Growing capacities of River Grain Terminals

22 Start up of the 2013/14 season

23 Ukraine: Planted Winter Crops area wheat barley rye rapeseed / / / /14

24 Ukraine: Winter Kill and Winter Crops Conditions 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 good satisfactory poor 0,2 12,6 6,6 8,2 0,1 37,6 34,2 31, ,8 55,8 60,6 40,

25 Ukraine: grain production forecast, MMT sowing area, Ml ha yields, MT/ha gross output, MMT 2011/ / / / / / / / /14 Wwheat 6,6 6,7 6,7 3,10 2,52 3,09 19,9 13,6 19,8 Swheat 0,3 0,2 0,2 2,59 2,52 2,46 0,7 0,6 0,4 Wbarley 1,2 1,4 1,1 2,63 1,91 2,65 3,1 1,5 2,9 Sbarley 2,6 2,8 2,3 2,05 1,88 2,18 5,2 5,1 4,9 Corn 3,5 4,5 4,4 5,59 4,53 5,01 19,0 18,8 21,8 Rye 0,3 0,3 0,3 2,07 2,23 2,25 0,6 0,7 0,7 W. Total 8,2 8,4 8,1 2,99 2,02 3,00 23,6 15,7 23,3 S. Total 7,6 8,9 7,9 3,65 3,36 3,42 26,9 26,5 29,1 Total 15,7 17,3 16,1 3,31 2,85 3,35 50,5 42,2 52,4

26 Ukraine: Wheat Quality 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 6th gr 5th gr 4th gr 1-3rd gr 30% 20% 10% 0% *

27 Black Sea: Grain Export forecast, 2013/14, Ml mt (2012/13) Wheat (23-24) Barley (4.6) Maize ( ) Wheat 31 Barley 5, Maize 17 Estimated grain export potential of the 2013/14 season Ml mt (42)

28 Ukraine: Grain and Rapeseed Export Th mt

29 Ukraine: Sunoil and Soy Exports, Th mt

30 Ukraine: Grain Export forecast, 2013/14, Ml mt (2012/13) Wheat 8.7 (6.5) Barley 2.5 (2.2) Maize 15.5 (12.0) Rapeseed 2.0 (1.25) Soy 1.7 (1.5) Sunoil 3.1 (3.25) Estimated grain export potential of the 2013/14 season Ml mt (22.0 Ml mt) and 3.5-3,7 of oil crops (1.75)

31 Black Sea prices: Wheat, Barley, Maize, Sunoil

32 Grain Prices, 2013 Summer

33 forecast forecast Ukraine: Grain Export Prices, Forecast, summer Maize Barley USA Ukraine Argentina Wheat Ukraine France Germany 270 Russia, FOB Novo SRW, USA France Ukraine

34 Investment and consulting services Development Strategy Business planning Trends in capitalization of Ukrainian agricultural holdings Crop forecasts, agricultural markets, pricing S&D of grains and oilseeds in the Black Sea Region and worldwide Export/ import statistics Agricultural market researches (cereals, oilseeds, meat, sugar, elevators, seeds, logistics, etc.) Daily and weekly newsletters for agricultural professionals Office 5, Timoshenko Str. 29- V, 04205, Kyiv, Ukraine Tel/Fax: (multi-channel)

35 Black Sea Grain: New Markets Ukrainian Maize export by country 2011/ /08 Uzbekistan,1 Pakistan, 2% % Others, 6% Russia, 3% Tajikistan, 4% Tunisia, 17% EU 27, 17% Turkey, 15% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Turkmenistan, 5% Azerbaijan, 12% Egypt, 13%

36 Среднегодовые мощности по переработке и урожай масличных культур (подсолнечник и соя) тыс. т Мощность по переработке Урожай

37 Black Sea Grain: New Markets Russian Wheat export by country 2011/ /08

38 Глобальные слияния и поглощения Global M&A 8,1% 2,2% 3,4% 2,9% 2,5% 1.3% 12,7% 9,1% GLOBAL M&A SECTOR BREAKDOWN YTD Value Industrials & Chemicals Financial Services 11,9% TMT Consumer 29,2% 8,0% 8,8% Business Services Energy, Mining & Utitlities Pharma, Miedical & Biotech SOURCE: MERRILL CORPORATION

39 Новые рынки

40 Sown area wheat barley corn other grains sunseed rapeseed soya / / / / / / / / / / /13

41 Grain and oilseeds production wheat barley corn other grains sunseed rapeseed soya / / / / / / / / /11* 2011/ /13

42 Wheat export destination, 2011/12 season Libya 3% Jordan 3% Syria 4% Bangladesh 2% Tunisia 5% Others 16% Spain 20% Israel 13% Italy 6% Saudi 5% Egypt 23%

43 Barley export destinations Morocco 3% Israel Jordan 3% 4% Others 7% Iran 5% Syria 9% Saudy 69%

44 Black Sea Wheat in the Global Wheat Export wheat export 2012/13 Kazakhstan 5% Ukraine 5% Russia 8% Others 12% USA 21% Australia 12% Argentina 4% wheat export 2001/02 India 5% EU 14% Canada 14% Kazakhstan 4% Ukraine 5% Russia 3% Others 10% USA 25% India 3% EU 9% Argentina 10% Canada 15% Australia 16%

45 Ukraine: Wheat, Barley and Maize Export, KMT

46 Barley Export Ukraine: