Will there be enough water to grow enough food? Results of The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.

Transcription

1 Will there be enough water to grow enough food? Yes if Results of The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Co-Sponsors:

2 Setting the Scene

3 It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average

4 Investing in Irrigation World Bank lending for irrigation Irrigated Area Living Planet Index Freshwater Species Food price index

5 The 850 million undernourished. Dependent on Water for Agriculture? Vulnerable to loss of water Employment Nutrition, food security, income Lower Food Prices There are few options outside of agriculture for most rural poor at present Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI

6 Limits reached or breached Closed basins no water left for more development Yellow River, Colorado, Amu/Syr Darya, Murray-Darling, Egypt s Nile, Lerma-Chapala, Jordan, Gediz, Zayanda Rud, Indus, Cauvery, Krishna, Chao Phraya,. Groundwater overdraft Fisheries ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent Livestock limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production

7 Water Scarcity /3 of the world s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

8 The CA framing question How can water for food be developed and managed to Help end poverty and hunger? Ensure environmentally sustainable water-agriculture practices? Find the balance between food and environmental security?

9 An Assessment Process Deals with a complex societal issue Critical evaluation of information Engages stakeholders throughout process Large and diverse team of experts over 700 people from around the world Includes external reviews Cosponsors:

10 Chapter writing process CHAPTER NETWORK Coordinating Lead Author (CLA)1-2 CHAPTER TEAM WRITING TEAM Lead Authors (LAs) 2-7 Contributing Authors 5-15 Network of Interested People Reviewers reviews Review Editors Diversity: specialty, region, gender

11 Book Outline Summary for Decision Makers Section 1- intro Introduction Conceptual Framework Section 2 Impacts & Challenges Scenarios Section 3 Cross-cutting Water Productivity Ecosystems Policies & Institutions Poverty Section 4 - Sectoral Rainfed Irrigated Groundwater Low Quality Water Fisheries Livestock Rice Land Basins Summary available now:

12 What of the future

13 Consumption of Animal Products Meat consumption kg/cap/yr Per capita demand (kg/cap/yr) of animal products data projections USA World China India

14 Water Needs (ET) will double without water productivty gains How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population

15 Crop water consumption to 2050 Today Without productivity improvement Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

16 Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts Water for biofuels* Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100% % of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes *Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

17 CA Policy Agenda 8 points

18 Agenda 1 Change the way we think about water and food. A Range of Ag Water Management Options

19 Agenda 2 water and poverty #2. Get water to poor people, use it better Around 70% of the world s undernourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. 1. Broad investments for economic growth works through multipliers 2. Targeted investments directly impacts poor

20 Agenda 2 water and poverty Promising Pathways Recognizing gender differentiated roles and impacts Ensure secure access (including water rights) Targeted investments in pro-poor technologies Local management and informal irrigation Multiple-use systems Maintaining fisheries Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure

21 Policy Agenda #3: Increase Water Productivity Physical Water Productivity more crop per drop To reduce future water needs For food production increases Economic Water Productivity more value per drop For more income, growth

22 Agenda 3 increase water productivity Growth in yields United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

23 Policy Agenda 4: Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture Rainfed areas, especially in the semi-arid tropics, have the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.

24 Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture Dependence on green and blue water 2000

25 Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture The link between poverty, hunger and water scarcity

26 Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture Key Actions to Upgrade Rainfed Systems Technology water harvesting, supplemental irrigation, Field water conservation to reduce evaporation. Build human capacity - Expand Policies to include upgrading rainfed

27 #5: Adapt yesterday s irrigation to tomorrow s needs. The days of rapid expansion of irrigation are over. But there are plenty of reasons to invest:

28 #6: More ecosystem services from agriculture Provisioning services - food and timber Regulating services - flood control and storage, ground water recharge, water sharing Cultural services spiritual and cultural benefits; O&M as the glue of communities Supporting services biodiversity, nutrient cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth

29 Lowland rice landscape: very rich biodiversity

30 Agenda 6 more ecosystem services Manage for Diversity Improve practices to enhance a range of ecosystem services beyond food and fiber Ensure the poor receive considerable benefits payment for environmental services Manage for diversity, engineer for diversity (environmental flows) Informed negotiations

31 Policy Agenda #7: Reform the policy reform process Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and environmental degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings

32 Agenda 7 reform the reform process Institutional reform Sectoral reforms needed craft solutions suited to local needs no blueprints Policies outside of water sector have huge influence on water resources diets, trade, agricultural subsidies, energy

33 Do the right things Today Practices like today CA Scenario CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

34 Agenda 8. Make difficult choices now, not later: Choices: Water storage for agriculture water for environment Upstream downstream Productivity - Equity This generation the next one (GW decline) Our consumption patterns and their impact

35 Thank You