The Global Occurrence and Economic Consequences of Stripe Rust in Wheat

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1 The Global Occurrence and Economic Consequences of Stripe Rust in Wheat Philip Pardey, Yuan Chai, Jason Beddow, Terry Hurley and Darren Kriticos University of Minnesota BGRI 2014 Technical Workshop Ciudad, Obregon Mexico March 24, 2014

2 Stem Rust Global Assessment Summary Climate suitability of stem rust Suitable Persists

3 Stem Rust Global Assessment Summary Climate suitability of stem rust A sustained investment of $51.1 million Suitable per year (2010 prices) in stem rust Persists research could be justified economically

4 Implications for Stripe Rust What is the global extent of this disease? Where is it likely to occur and persist? What share of global wheat area and production is susceptible to the disease? What is the likely global losses in wheat production associated with this disease? What are the global research investment implications of this disease?

5 Historical and Current Stripe Rust Threats Before 2000 After 2000 Historically, stripe rust has mainly been endemic only in cool climate regions In recent decades, stripe rust has spread rapidly to areas previously unaffected 0 Not recorded, or no response 1 Rare 2 Localized in some seasons 3 Localized in most seasons 4 Widespread in some seasons 5 Widespread in most seasons N = 29

6 Survey Responses Causes of Expansion in Wheat Area with Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust Survey Questions Aggressiveness change Aggressiveness change 15 Climate change Susceptible wheat Pathogen adaption Other reasons* Climate change Susceptible wheat Pathogen adaption Other reason* *Other reasons proposed by survey respondents include cropping system, lack of crop rotation, presence of green bridge, poor management, and insufficient control strategies. N = 29 respondents

7 U.S. Wheat Yield Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust

8 Worldwide Stripe Rust Vulnerability (Beta version) Persistently vulnerable area Seasonally suitable area Unaffected area Area Share Output Share Suitable Persists Suitable Persists (Percentage) North America Australia Sub-Saharan Africa China India World

9 Stochastic Structure of U.S. Losses Attributed to Stem Rust Average 2.5% per year Average 0.29% per year Source: Pardey et al. (2013)

10 Stochastic Structure of U.S. Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust Percent Loss Average 1.5% per year Average 0.54% per year Average 0.15% per year The changing structure of stripe rust epidemics : significant yield losses : use of resistant cultivars and fungicide Since 2000: new stripe rust pathotypes

11 Global Stripe Rust Losses Estimates (Beta version) No Loss Counterfactual Reference Period Counterfactual Loss Average annual losses (million metric tons) Value of the annual losses (million U.S. $ per year)* none 0.88 $ none 0.34 $ none 4.74 $848 Low Loss Counterfactual Reference Period Counterfactual Period Losses Averted (million metric tons) Value of the benefits (million U.S. $ per year)* $ $797 * 2010 average US wheat prices

12 Economically Justifiable R&D Investment (Beta estimates) Approach Estimate of annual investments to avert projected losses (costs) attributable to stripe rust through to 2048 Ninety five percent chance of realizing a modified internal rate of return of at least 10 percent per year Stochastic Loss Structure $8.0 million per year, or 4 cents per hectare Stochastic Loss Structure $27.8 million per year, or 12 cents per hectare Comparative Information Economically justified investment in stem rust was $51.1 million per year U.S. wheat farmers spent $15.75 per hectare on seed

13 U.S. Wheat Yield Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust

14 Changing Spatial Structure of Losses % U.S. Wheat Yield Losses: Pacific North West (PNW) vs. Non-PNW PNW&CA % Loss Non PNW&CA % Loss Before 1959: no reported losses attributed to stripe rust : wheat stripe rust caused significant yield losses in the Pacific North-West (PNW) region : yield losses were generally low because of the use of resistant cultivars and the application of effective fungicide (Chen 2005) Since 2000: stripe rust epidemics became increasingly important in PNW, south central states and the central Great Plains, causing severe damage.

15 Summing Up Earlier assessment suggests that around $50 million per year be invested in research to avert prospective global losses from stem rust, double what is being spent of late Evidence suggests a change in the spatial pattern and magnitude of wheat yield losses attributable to stripe rust Beta assessment suggests that around $28 million per year be spent to alleviate global losses from stripe rust, substantially more than would have been justified several decades ago On-going work is assessing the interplay between the spatial pattern of losses, the spatial extent of those losses, and the research investment implications of these more recent changes

16 Thanks

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