OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE

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1 Agricultural Outlook Forum 216 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Robert Johansson Chief Economist 25 February 216

2 Fig 2 Main themes for The macroeconomy is weighing on trade, but there are reasons for optimism. 2. Record crop harvests have led to stock building and downward pressure on prices. 3. Farm income and farmland values are adjusting.

3 Fig 3 World GDP growth slows, compared to last year s projections, most notably in China % change 1. World % change China Actual 216 projection projection Source: USDA.

4 Fig 4 Falling prices for primary inputs 27= = Ammonia 5 Steel Lumber Crude Oil Source: Eikon/Datastream, USDA-OCE.

5 U.S. GDP growth and real ag trade-weighted exchange rate up through 217 % change 21 = 1 Fig US GDP (left axis) Exchange rate (right axis) Data: USDA-OCE.

6 Fig 6 Dollar has appreciated against currencies of its customers, especially in 215 % change Y-O-Y Canadian dollar Japan yen Taiwan dollar Korea won Mexico peso China yuan Source: Eikon/Datastream. Positive change indicates U.S. dollar appreciation.

7 Fig 7 Dollar has appreciated against competitor currencies, especially in 214 and 215 % change Y-O-Y Argentina peso Brazil real Eurozone euro Australia dollar Canadian dollar Russia ruble Source: Eikon/Datastream. Positive change indicates U.S. dollar appreciation.

8 Source: USDA AMS. Fig 8 The price of soybeans in dollars and reais US$ per bushel Price in Brazilian reais (right axis) R$ per bushel Price in US dollars (left axis)

9 Fig 9 Median household income growth rises more rapidly for farm households $9, $8, $7, Recession $6, $5, Farm household income $4, $3, $2, U.S. household income $1, $ Data: USDA-ERS.

10 Fig 1 Domestic consumption of agricultural products Domestic consumption Exports/stocks 2 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: OECD Producer and Consumer Support Estimates database, using USDA production and consumption data.

11 Fig 11 Ag Trade Outlook

12 Source: USDA. Data are fiscal year. Decline in agricultural exports expected in China share falls in value Billion dollars Fig 12 China Percent

13 Source: USDA. China imports to rise, but more slowly than last year: soybeans up, grains down, cotton down Million metric tons 16 Fig Last year's projection Combined imports of grains, soybeans, and cotton. This year's projection 199/ /96 2/1 25/6 21/11 215/16 22/21 225/26

14 Projections for Brazil s exports for corn and soybeans both increase from last year Million metric tons 12 1 This year's projection Fig Exports of soybeans and corn Last year's projection 2 199/ /96 2/1 25/6 21/11 215/16 22/21 225/26 Source: USDA.

15 198 Source: USDA Fig 15 Global trade growth is expected to continue Million metric tons 3 25 Soybeans and products Wheat Coarse Grains 5

16 Fig 16 Expanding U.S. ag exports through FTAs *TPP partners include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. TPP* Ag Trade Exports $133 billion Imports $113.5 billion U.S. Ag Trade U.S exports $57.2 billion U.S. imports $58.1 billion Total TPP-11 trade $43 billion Total $246.5 billion U.S. exports $12.1 billion U.S. imports $2 billion *TTIP partner is EU-28. TTIP* Ag Trade Total EU trade $291 billion Source: USDA, European Commission. CY214/215 trade data.

17 FTAs help level the playing field Japan beef Change from Baseline ( avg.) Change from baseline (JAEPA) $mil. $mil Fig US Australia ROW JAEPA Equal Access -15 Source: USDA-ERS.

18 Cuba U.S. Ag Exports, 214 Dominican Republic Fig 18 $286.4 million $1.29 billion Corn Soybean Meal Other Soybeans Poultry Data: USDA. Wheat Soybean Meal Beef Poultry Condiments Eggs Corn Soybean Oil Pork Dairy Tobacco Other

19 Fig 19 Outlook for Crops

20 Global production outstripping consumption MMT 8 Wheat MMT 1,1 Corn MMT 35 Soybean Fig , Source: USDA-OCE.

21 Fig 21 Global ending stocks edge up Days of Use Days of Use Cotton Wheat Soybeans Corn Rice Source: USDA.

22 Fig 22 China policies build stocks Percent of Global Stocks 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Cotton Corn Rice Wheat Soybeans 1% % Source: USDA, PSD database

23 Fig 23 Corn, wheat, and soybean prices soften, but still above 2-23 average Crop Ave F 216F Wheat Corn Soybeans Upland Cotton All Rice Source: USDA-NASS, OCE. Red denotes record high.

24 F Fig 24 Last year s prices point towards a fall in area Price Index (24 = 1) crop index of lagged real area-weighted prices (left axis) Million Aces Planted crop planted acres (right axis)

25 Cropland area expected to remain high in 216, but down again from last year Crop (mil. Acres) F % change Corn % Soybeans % Wheat % All cotton % M. feedgrains % Rice % Total 8 crops % CRP % 8 crops + CRP % Source: USDA-OCE. 1 All cotton, includes both upland and ELS cotton Fig 25

26 Fig 26 Outlook for Livestock and Dairy

27 Fig 27 Beef, pork, and poultry production higher in 216 Animal products F % change Billion Pounds Beef Pork Broilers Total Billion Pounds Milk Source: USDA. Data in red denote record levels.

28 Source: USDA-NASS Fig 28 Herd rebuilding continues Percent of Slaughter 55% Cow and Heifer % of Slaughter 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% Million head Cattle Inventory

29 Source: USDA-OCE F Fig 29 Meat exports expected to increase 1 MT 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Broilers Pork Beef and veal 5

30 Source: USDA. Dairy exports reflect continued demand weakness and large global supplies 1 MT 6 5 Fig 3 Nonfat Dry Milk 4 Cheese 3 2 Butter 1 Dry Whole Milk Powder

31 27-Dec 16-Jan 5-Feb 25-Feb 17-Mar 6-Apr 26-Apr 16-May 5-Jun 25-Jun Millions Millions HPAI mortality approached 5 million birds 5 Fig Commercial chicken Commercial turkey 2 1 Source: USDA-APHIS

32 Fig 32 Cattle, Hog, dairy, and broiler prices expected to come down from 215 Animal products F % change Dollars per cwt Steers Hogs Broilers Milk Source: USDA-OCE. Prices in red denote record levels.

33 Fig 33 Outlook for the Farm Sector

34 Data: USDA-ERS. Net farm income is down, but debt-to-asset ratio remains low Fig 34 Billion dollars Percent Debt-to-Asset ratio (right axis) Net farm income (left axis) F

35 Fig 35 Illinois case shows crop budgets tightening Corn After Soybeans Soybeans After Corn Fertilizers and pesticides $19. $75. Seed $122. $76. Crop insurance and other direct costs $55. $23. Machinery and power $124. $113. Total non-land costs $558. $348. Yield Price $3.45 $8.5 ARC-CO $3. $3. Crop Revenue $ $523. Revenue to cover rent and salary $ $175. Cash Rent for Illinois $228 $228 Source: USDA-NASS, Univ. of Illinois.

36 Fig 36 Farm debt continues to increase at commercial banks Source: Kauffman, Cowley, and Clark (216) Data: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

37 Fig 37 Delinquency rates on farm loans fall Source: Kauffman, Cowley, and Clark (216) Data: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

38 Data: 7 th district and Iowa, Chicago Federal Reserve; and Ranchland, K.C. Federal Reserve Fig 38 Land values flatten, falling in some areas Y-o-Y % change Y-o-Y % Change 4 7th district Ranchland Iowa Jan- May-2 Sep-4 Jan-7 May-9 Sep-11 Jan-14-3

39 Fig 39 Capitalized land value still far above actuals $/acre $14, Corn Belt $/acre $14, $12, $1, Capitalized value $12, $1, $8, $8, $6, $6, $4, $4, $2, $ Observed cropland value $2, $ Data: USDA-NASS, St. Louis Fed.

40 ARC-CO 214 payment rates for corn minus 28 Direct Payment rates reflect effects of yield variations on revenue Fig 4 $dollars / acre (ARC-DP) Source: USDA-FSA.

41 Crop insurance continues to play a critical role in farmers risk management plans 215 Percent of Planted Acres Crop CAT Buy-Up All Corn 3% 83% 86% Soybeans 3% 84% 87% Wheat 4% 8% 84% Cotton 6% 88% 94% Rice 17% 65% 82% Potatoes 42% 34% 76% Grain Sorghum 4% 7% 74% Peanuts 9% 82% 91% Barley 6% 66% 72% Source: RMA 41 Fig 41

42 Fig 42 Outlook for Food Prices

43 Jan-4 Sep-4 May-5 Feb-6 Oct-6 Jun-7 Feb-8 Oct-8 Jul-9 Mar-1 Nov-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Fig 43 Food CPI remains low Year-over-Year Change (%) Year-over-Year Change (%) ALL FOOD ERS forecast: 2.-3.% for Data: BLS.

44 Jan-4 Sep-4 Data: BLS. May-5 Feb-6 Oct-6 Jun-7 Feb-8 Oct-8 Jul-9 Mar-1 Nov-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Fig 44 Meat price inflation falls 15 points y-o-y Year-over-Year Change (%) Year-over-Year Change (%) Cereal and Baked Goods Meats F&V

45 Data: USDA-NASS Fig 45 Productivity growth continues long rise 1998 = Index of change in output MILK per COW PIGS per Litter CORN (BU / ACRE) TOMATOES (TONS / ACRE) POTATOES (CWT / ACRE)

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