Brazilian Agrometerological Monitoring Actual tools and the future

Transcription

1 Brazilian Agrometerological Monitoring Actual tools and the future CAgM Meeting on Agrometeorology WMO- Nairobi Kenya 21 to 24 October 2008 Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa CNPTIA - Brazil

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3 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Agritempo The Agrometeorological Monitoring System (Agritempo) monitors and divulges, since 2003, the climatic risk mapping out aiming at reducing possible crop losses.

4 Characteristics stores and manages daily data of 1280 weather stations; stores historical data from 4870 meteorological stations; manages more than 50,000,000 records; stores and uses data from estimates of 1 to 15 days; allows the registration of users with different profiles; incorporates migration process and validation of data received from institutions; provides resources for generation of graphics, research and statistical summary; agricultural zoning; daily generation (automatic), 27 agroclimatological bulletins daily generation (automatic) of 810 thematic maps for all of Brazil

5 Partners: INMET CPTEC UDs Embrapa Lamepe/Itep Cemig Cooxupé Simepar Fepagro Epagri Dep. Hidrologia AL EBDA+INGÁ Unicamp USP Inst. Florestal Unesp CDVale Agritempo

6 Partners Characteristics National Meterology Research Centre of Weather and Clima Universities (4) Privates Companies (4) Public Companies (4) Individual Farmers Cooperatives Energy Companies Obs: All datas are free

7 Integration of data from various sources Data integrated repositories C1 C3 C2 Institutional repositories I1 I2 I3a I3 I3b devices -gathering data

8 ways of sending and receiving data Station Automatic Software unloads in computer Data Converter FTP Converter WEB Base de dados Agritempo Phone Typing WebMGE Upload Download Typing Fax OK

9 Agritempo Number of stations CDVale CEMIG CMRHSE CNPAF CNPH CNPSO COOXUPE CPAA CPAC CPACT CPTEC DHMAL EPAGRI FEPAGRO IAC IF INMET IPGO SCT/PE SEDAM SIMEPAR UNESP UNICAMP USP Partners

10 Partners Distribution of stations by state

11 Previsão de Safra Real Network Monitoring

12 Virtual Network Monitoring Rain, Temperature

13 Network Virtual TRMM

14 Advantages and Disadvantages of estimations from virtual network Goodestimatiomof temperatura Good identification of no rain day High density of data Agritempo Bad estimation of rain quantity Problems to correct humid identification areas

15 Virtual Station TRMM Varginha - MG Real Station NatMet Varginha - MG T T P Dry period P Dry period 01/01/2008 to 20/10/2008

16 Products Agritempo

17 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Irrigation Needs -National level -State level -Countie level

18 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Water Contents -National level -State level -Countie level

19 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Precipitation -National level -State level -Countie level

20 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Precipitations Forecast 1 day until 5 days (meteorological models) 6 days to 15 days (estocastical models) -National level -State level -County level

21 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Rain and Temperature Data critizes And verification Blue- estimated data Orange-doubtful data

22 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Rain Maps For All country

23 Brazilian Agricultural Zoning Agribusiness GDP in 2006: US$ 180 billions (33% GDP - US$ 500 billion) Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 35 billions (42%) Grain production in 2007 :133,4 millions tons Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995 Federal Farm Credit Policy US$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers

24 Cause: Water deficiency in critical phases: : 60% Agritempo Loss of production: 91/92 e 92/93 (Source: IPEA/UNB) Product S. PAULO BAHIA Northeast Rice 30% 34% 47% Bean 21% 34% 41% Corn 16% 37% 71% Soybean 16% 29% - Soybean- Irrigated % Cotton 22% 22% 81% Castor Oil %

25 Agritempo Main Objective Decrease the climate risks dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%) excessive rain during the harvest period (30%) Product Planting Calendars Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum, Fruits, Coffee and biofuel crops) Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec) Counties / Municipal districts Macro-regions: Central, Southeast,South and Northeast Risk: less than or equal to 20%

26 General Methodology Simulation of cumulative water balance for different soil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, ground stations (different models (DSSAT, BIPZON Sarrazon, CLIPS etc) Decision criteria / Risk Analysis: a) WRSI during reproductive stage Threshold Value (80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index WRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration b) Excessive rain during harvest

27 Data Base Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for early and normal cultivars Length of total growing period Crop coefficient (Kc) Soil water holding capacity Rainfall Evapotranspiration

28 CLIMATIC risks zoning Rain stations distribution

29 f wrsi(x) 1 3ª phenological phase WRSI P criterion WRSI= value days Risk probability models

30 Actually Zoning Crops Rice Beans Corn Wheat Soybeans Sorghun Coffee Cotton Castor Bean Apple Vigna beans Banana Cashew nuts Barley Maninhot Oil Palm (2007) Sunflower (2007) Peanuts (2007) Rape seed(2007)

31 Oil Palm possible area production with low risk Bahia State Oil Palm Potential Oil yield 3000 Kg/ha/year Oil 22%

32 Sunflower possible area production with low risk South region

33 Sunflower possible area production with low risk Others regions Sunflower Production (2005) [Oil] - 44% Oil Yield 430 kg/ha/year

34 Peanuts possible area production with low risk Oil Yield 600 kg/ha/year Yield 600kg/ha/year

35 Castor Bean possible surface production with low risk Oil Yield ~ 1000 Kg/ha/year

36 Soybean possible surface production with low risk Oil Yield 500 Kg/ha/year

37 Benefits after zoning Products Yield soybean Before Kg/ha 1808 After Kg/ha 3000 Corn 2564 ~4100

38 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Green -Optimal Data planting From climatic Risks zoning

39 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Forecast system of soybean crop yield for Brazil

40 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Agritempo Quantify losses caused by water deficiency

41 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Estimation of maximum productivity in each agroecological area Accumulation of Biomass = f(rad.solar, Temp., Rain) Pp (kg/ha) Production of grains Time

42 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Results for Soybeans Brasil Harvests: 2000/2001 to 2005/2006 Comparison with data from CONAB* CONAB is the national company responsible to make the forecast of harvest

43 Agrometeorological Monitoring System Production (million tons) Agritempo CONAB 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

44 WebAgritec Agrometeorological Monitoring System Municipal Scale 15 day weather forecast for all Brazilian cities; Monitoring the date of planting (based on agricultural zoning); Crop Monitoring (based on agricultural zoning); Virtual diagnosis of disease; Recommendation of cultivars; Recommendation for fertilization; Videos of farming practices; News.

45 WebAgritec Agrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System Municipal Scale Grey are the optimal data planting from climatic risks zoning, and green are the optimal rain planting during the actual saison

46 WebAgritec Agrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System Municipal Scale Green are de optimal planting date from climatic risks zoning, and the blue graphic is water balance in each date

47 Eduardo Delgado Assad