Opportunities for Australian grain in South East Asia and implications of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. James Campbell Head of Agribusiness, China

Transcription

1 Opportunities for Australian grain in South East Asia and implications of the ASEAN Free Trade Area James Campbell Head of Agribusiness, China March 2015

2 CONTENTS 2 AUSTRALIA GRAIN INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 3 WHAT IS DRIVING ASIAN DEMAND? 8 ASEAN-AUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALAND FREE TRADE AREA (AANZFTA) 17 OPPORTUNITY FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE SECTOR: ASEAN 19 CHINA AUSTRALIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ChAFTA): IMPACT OF GRAIN INDUSTRY 23 INDIRECT FACTORS AFFECTING AUSTRALIAN GRAIN 25 APPROACH TO ASIAN MARKET: CHANGING MARKET DYNAMICS 24

3 AUSTRALIA GRAIN INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

4 HIGH VOLATILITY IN WHEAT PRODUCTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS >4 AUSTRALIA WHEAT PRODUCTION BY REGION (In mt) WA SA East Coast AUSTRALIA WHEAT EXPORT BY REGION (In mt) WA SA East Coast Ending Stock - Total Source: ANZ Analysis Page 4

5 WHEAT >5 AUSTRALIA EXPORT BY COUNTRY: WHEAT (In mt) Indonesia China Vietnam Yemen Iraq Malaysia Korea,Rep.of Japan Iran Thailand Philippines Source: ABARES Page 5

6 BARLEY >6 AUSTRALIA EXPORT BY COUNTRY: BARLEY (In mt) China SaudiArabia Japan Korea,Rep.of Thailand Vietnam Kuwait UnitedArabEmirates Taiwan Philippines Source: ABARES Page 6

7 SORGHUM >7 AUSTRALIA EXPORT BY COUNTRY: SORGHUM (In mt) China Japan Taiwan New Zealand Papua New Guinea Source: ABARES Page 7

8 WHAT IS DRIVING ASIAN DEMAND?

9 INDONESIA >9 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) CONSUMPTION MIX ( ) IMPORT MIX ( ) % 15% % DRIVERS Noodles AH, APW Instant Noodles APW,AH & ASW Bread DNS & CWRS Sponge Cake SWW,APW & ASW Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 9

10 CHINA >10 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) IMPORT MIX ( ) 54% 25% DRIVERS Noodles AH, CWHWS 8.2 & CPSW Steam Buns 7.1 Bread APW & ASFT DNS & CWRS Sponge Cake SWW,APW & ASW Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 10

11 VIETNAM >11 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) CONSUMPTION MIX ( ) IMPORT MIX ( ) %-4 Other 1 66% 8% 7% DRIVERS 1.9 Dried Noodle APW 8.2 Instant Noodles 7.1 Bakery APW,AH & ASW APH, AH and APW & high Protein wheat from America Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 11

12 MALAYSIA >12 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) IMPORT MIX ( ) 6 15% 8% DRIVERS Noodles AH, APW Instant Noodles APW,AH & ASW Bread DNS & CWRS Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 12

13 KOREA >13 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) CONSUMPTION MIX ( ) IMPORT MIX ( ) 44% 14% Other 42% DRIVERS Noodles WSN ASWN 8.2 Ramyon AH & ASWN 7.1 Bread DNS Biscuits SWW Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 13

14 JAPAN >14 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) IMPORT MIX ( ) % DRIVERS Udon Ramen 7.1 Bread ASWN & 8.2 Domestic APH,DNS & CWRS DNS & CWRS Sponge Cake SWW,APW & ASW Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 14

15 THAILAND >15 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) IMPORT MIX ( ) 71% 15% 11% DRIVERS Noodles AH, APW 8.2 Bread DNS & CWRS 7.1 Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 15

16 PHILIPPINES >16 CONSUMPTION (In mt) IMPORTS (In mt) CONSUMPTION MIX ( ) IMPORT MIX ( ) 55% 5 44% 2% DRIVERS Noodles AH, APW 8.2 Bread DNS & CWRS 7.1 Source: FAOSTAT, USDA, AEGIC & ANZ Analysis Page 16

17 ASEAN-AUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALAND FREE TRADE AREA (AANZFTA)

18 TARIFF POST AANZFTA >18 INDONESIA VIETNAM MALAYSIA Wheat Wheat 5% 5% Wheat Meslin 5% Meslin Meslin Barley Barley 3% 3% Barley Oat 5% Oat 3% 3% Oat PHILIPPINES THAILAND (In THB/kg) MYANMAR Wheat 3% Wheat 0.1 Wheat Meslin 3% Meslin 0.1 Meslin Barley 7% Barley 2.75 Barley Oat 7% Oat 2.75 Oat CAMBODIA LAOS BRUNEI / SINGAPORE Wheat 7% U U Wheat 5% 5% Wheat Meslin 7% 7% Meslin 5% 5% Meslin Barley 7% U U Barley 5% 5% Barley Oat 7% 7% Oat 5% 5% Oat Source: ASEAN Database & ANZ Analysis Note 1: U stands for Undisclosed Page 18

19 OPPORTUNITY FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE SECTOR: ASEAN

20 ASEAN HOME FOR 617 MILLION PEOPLE TO DRIVE AGRI DEMAND IN LONG RUN >20 ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIA NATIONS (ASEAN): KEY STATS GDP (Current Price USD Billion) 2,500 2,000 Laos Myanmar Thailand Philippines 1,500 1,000 Cambodia Vietnam 500 Brunei Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Viet Nam Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR POPULATION (In Million) GDP PER CAPITA (Current Price USD 000 ) Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Malaysia Cambodia Laos Singapore Brunei Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand ASEAN Indonesia Philippines Viet Nam Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar Source: World Bank & ANZ Analysis Page 20

21 ASEAN: TRADE OVERVIEW >21 ASEAN TRADE (In USD bn) ASEAN TRADING PARTNERS (In USD bn) ASEAN TRADE COMMODITY GROUP (In USD bn) Singapore ASEAN Electrical Machinery Thailand China Mineral fuels Malaysia EU Nuclear Reactors Indonesia Japan Vehicles Viet Nam USA Plastics Philippines Korea Optical Instruments Myanmar Taiwan Precious Metal Cambodia 9 9 Hong Kong Organic Chemicals Brunei 11 4 Australia Rubber Laos 3 3 India Iron and Steel 8 44 Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Source: ASEAN Database & ANZ Analysis Page 21

22 AUSTRALIA IS WELL POSITIONED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ROBUST DEMAND >22 ASEAN Birth of ASEAN ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) Vision 2020 China FTA Korea FTA Japan Economic Partnership ASEAN Charter Road Map Master Plan ASEAN Connectivity Australia NZ FTA India FTA AUS EXPORT TO ASEAN 2013 (AUD m) 3,193 2,251 2, % ASEAN IMPORT DEPENDENCE ON AUSTRALIA (2013) WHEAT BARLEY OAT USD 5.0bn 47% 47% 53% USD 18.8m 47% 53% 17% USD 7.3m 83% Crude Wheat Gold Aluminium Australia Other ASEAN KEY WHEAT IMPORTERS 2013 (In mt) AUS IMPORT FROM ASEAN 2013 (AUD m) 9,506 8, ,905 1, Refined Petroleum Crude petroleum Goods vehicles Passenger motor vehicles Indonesia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Myanmar Singapore Cambodia Brunei Source: ABARES, Trade Map & ANZ Analysis Page 22

23 CHINA AUSTRALIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ChAFTA): IMPACT OF GRAIN INDUSTRY

24 CHINA S GRAIN IMPORT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH THE CURRENT ENDING STOCK RECOVERED TO 38% OF ANNUAL CONSUMPTION >24 CHINA GRAIN 1 SUPPLY (In mt) GRAIN 1 ENDING STOCK AS % OF CONSUMPTION Imports form ~3.4% of the China s grain 1 supply in Wheat account for 29.3% of the grain 1 imports 32% % % 200 8% '03/'04 '05/'06 '07/'08 '09/'10 '11/'12 '13/'14 - '03/'04 '05/'06 '07/'08 '09/'10 '11/'12 '13/'14 Source: USDA Begg. Stocks Dom. Production Imports Note: Grain includes Barley, Corn, Wheat, Rice, Sorghum End. Stock as % of Consumption Page 24

25 THE INDIRECT FACTORS AFFECTING AUSTRALIAN GRAIN

26 AUSTRALIA NEEDS TO LOOK INTO ALTERNATIVE FEEDING SYSTEMS TO LIFT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY >26 ~18% of Australian beef exports are grain fed and China accounts for 6% of total grain fed beef exports. With China Australia FTA in place that gradually reduces the tariffs, Australia exports to China will increase. However, recent fall in total beef exports to china highlight the 2013 export levels are not sustainable, which implies limited affect on grain fed beef exports Australia Beef Exports 2014 (In Shipped weight tonnes) LIVE CATTLE EXPORTS % 2% 4% 5% 8% Grass fed beef 82% Grain fed beef 18% 1 55% 12% Indonesia Vietnam Israel China Malaysia Russia Philippines Other Source: Australian Feedlot Association & ANZ Analysis Page 26

27 AUSTRALIA NEEDS TO LOOK INTO ALTERNATIVE FEEDING SYSTEMS TO LIFT MILK PRODUCTION >27 DAIRY IMPORTS IN CHINA FROM AUSTRALIA (In million litres) 9,365 DAIRY IMPORTS IN CHINA FROM AUSTRALIA 2030 (In million litres) 16,300 INCREASE IN AUSTRALIA S EXPORT POTENTIAL TO CHINA (In million litres) 9, ,686 X 7% X 7% 1,141.3 China's Dairy Imports China Imports from Australia China's forecasted Dairy Imports China forecasted Imports from Australia 2013 Additional 2030 INCREASE HERD SIZE (In million) CURRENT HERD SIZE 1.65 million EXPECTED HERD SIZE 1.75 million INCREASE CATTLE YIELD (In litres/cow/year) 5, ,870 Herd size Share Litres (m) Milk solids Feed (mt) Base case 7% 1, Upside 12% 1, Aggressive 15% 2, Additional 2030 Sources: OECD, ANZ Analysis, NDSU: Extension Service Page 27

28 APPROACH TO ASIAN MARKET: CHANGING MARKET DYNAMICS

29 APPROACH TO ASIAN MARKET: CHANGING MARKET DYNAMICS >29 AUD USD EXCHANGE RATE ESTIMATED WHEAT TRADE SUMMARY (In mt) (8.3) (7.1) Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 (50.0) Asia Pacific (45.0) Africa Other Latin America Caribben Oceania Europe North America JV WITH ASIAN FOOD PROCESSORS AUD DEPRECIATION: INWARD INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY 1 FOCUS ON REDUCING TRANSPORTATION INEFFICIENCY 3% 3% 9% 38% 22% Canada Australia Asia Rail Port USA Singapore UK 24% Thailand Other Sources: OECD, ANZ Analysis, NDSU: Extension Service Note 1: Acquisition analysis over highlight key Acquirer countries Page 29

30 THANK YOU