Impacts of Drought in the e Philippines

Transcription

1 Department of Science and Technology Department of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Impacts of Drought in the e Philippines by Rosalina G. de Guzman 2 1 Presented at the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry 2 Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines

2 Outline 1. Background Information 2. Impacts of Drought 3. Adaptation Strategies 4. Drought and Early Warning System

3 Background information The Philippines a natural disaster-prone country large number of islands (>7,000); vast, irregular coastline (17,000 kms); an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9 crossing the country triggering floods/landslides); abundant rainfall, yet some areas are semi-arid; and statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime temperatures.

4 Major drought years are associated with El Nino events El Nino years are associated with less number of typhoons

5 Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: (departures from the normal values) Temperature Anomaly ( C) 1.5 Anomaly 1 5 year running mean Linear (5 year running mean) y = x Year An increase of C from

6 Tropical Cyclones tracks in the WNP Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR

7 35 ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) Y E A R An average of 19.6 or 20.0 tropical cyclones (all categories) entered/developed in the PAR and 8 or 9 made landfall/crossing the Philippines annually.

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9 Drought Impacts to Agriculture Insufficient Water for Irrigation Reduced Stream flow Total Crop Loss Declining Groundwater Level Limiting Water Supply for Farm Household Needs

10 The Philippine Agriculture 10 Ave. Growth rate = 3.69% ( ) Ave. Growth rate = 1.95% ( ) -6.6

11 El Nino impacts on rice production Palay Production ( x 1000 MT) El Nino El Nino El Nino El Nino Year

12 Impacts of drought Crop failure Reduced irrigated areas State of calamity in La Union Philippine Star Jul 31, 2007

13 Angat water supply down to critical level

14 Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values ( ) 1998) for Angat reservoir in Luzon during selected El Niño o years (million cubic meters). Month Actual Normal % of Normal Actual Normal % of Normal October November December January February March Total

15 IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY (water shortage) Less water for domestic use Loss of target collection / income Additional operational cost - Occurrence of water-borne diseases Water quality problems

16 IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage) Loss of target collection to NIA (irrigation Service Fee) Reduction of farmers income Opportunity loss for NIA Increase in the no. of crimes

17 Impacts on Irrigation 140, ,000 Production/Harvested Area 100,000 80,000 60,000 40, (1) % 1998 (2) % 20, Production (M T) Area Harvested (ha) Irrigated Palay Production in AMRIS 1 First Semester Harvest (Nov Mar cropping season/dry) 2 Second Semester Harvest (Jun Oct cropping season/wet)

18 IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage) Opportunity losses Increase in the use of other sources of power such as coal, thermal, etc.

19 Impacts on Hydropower % Reduction % Reduction Difference Difference Actual Actual Generation Generation (GWH) (GWH) Yr. Ave Yr. Ave (GWH) (GWH) Quarter Quarter Year Year

20 List of Drought Events in the Philippines During the Period Date of Occurrence Areas Affected Damages Oct March 1983 Apr Sept Oct March 1987 Apr Sept Oct March Moderate to severe drought over most of the Philippines with Bicol Region as most severely affected Central Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao The whole of Mindanao except Davao Western and Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Northern Visayas, Bohol and Western Mindanao Moderate to severe drought affected most of Luzon, Negros Occidental and Iloilo Severe drought affected Bicol Region, Southern Negros, Cebu and Western Mindanao Severe drought affected mainland of Luzon, Central Visayas and Western Mindanao Drought affected Cagayan Valley, Panay Island, Guimaras, Palawan and Southern Mindanao; affected rice and corn area totalled 283,562 hectares; major multipurpose water reservoirs reduced inflow Severe drought affected Mindanao, Central and Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; affected agricultural areas of 461,800 hectares About 70 % of the Philippines experienced severe drought; about 292,000 hectares of rice and corn area completely damaged Total of 5x10 5 mt of rice and corn production Total loss of 6.3x10 5 mt of rice and corn production Total loss of 7.5x10 5 mt of rice and corn production Rice and corn pro- duction loss of 6.4x10 5 mt; insurance claims amounted to P38 M; hydropower generation loss was P316 M Estimated agricultural damages of P47 M Estimated hydro energy generation loss was P671 M Estimated 5x10 5 mt of rice and corn production losses; hydropower gene-ration loss of P348 M; 10% cutback in water production in Metro Manila P4.09 Billion agri-cultural losses; 20% shortfall in Metro Manila water supply 622,106 mt of rice production loss and 565,240 mt of corn amounting to P 3 B; water shortages; forest fires and human health impacts

21 What can be done? Other Institutional Responses /Interventions NDCC to proactively address the impending issue on water crisis National agencies and LGUs to work together to monitor ground water levels Dry spell/drought Mitigation Plan (risk & impact assessment, mitigation & response strategies) Crop insurance

22 Adaptation Strategies 1. Utilization of drought and submergence tolerant rice varieties (2008-dry season) GMA-RICE 2. Use of improved crop varieties that are resistant to pest and diseases ( ) Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR) and PhilRice Bureau of Agricultural Research and CLSU P 5.0 M Source: BSWM

23 Adaptation Strategies 3. Sustainable System of Irrigated Agriculture (SSIA) P 50.0 M ( ) National Irrigation Administration Department of Environment and Natural Resources Source: BSWM

24 Adaptation Strategies 4. LOCALIZED IRRIGATION (DRIP IRRIGATION water is applied by wetting only a part of the soil in the field through emitter. Highly efficient as water is conveyed through a pipe system; Water is applied directly to each plant such that only the soil near each plant is wetted; Facilitates fertigation and thus, could increase yield by 20% to 70% DRIP IRRIGATION Suitable in steep and undulating slopes, and sandy soils Source: BSWM

25 Adaptation Strategies 5. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated farmlands Diversion Dams Storage Dams Source: BSWM

26 Adaptation Strategies 6. Intensify establishment of rainwater harvesting structures (e.g. SWIP) P 1.5 B ( ) Bureau of Soils and Water management 7. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 7 Source: BSWM

27 Adaptation Strategies 8. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated farmlands Diversion Dams Storage Dams Source: BSWM

28 Adaptation Strategies 9. Intensify establishment of rainwater harvesting structures (e.g. SWIP) P 1.5 B ( ) Bureau of Soils and Water management 10. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources

29 Impacts of Extreme Dry Condition A. Rainfed agricultural areas will be severely affected B. Potential reduction in stream flows and water yield of the different water resources; Small streams and creeks Small run-of-the-river irrigation systems Farm ponds, small water reservoirs, and lakes Large rivers Large and major reservoirs Groundwater source; unconfined and confined shallow aquifers, deep aquifers C. Potential increase in crop water requirements due to increase in crop evapo-transpiration; reduction in irrigated areas

30 Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System DATA BASES HISTORICAL NORMALS EPISODIC EVENTS INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES AND PROCEDURES NEAR REAL-TIME METEOROLOGICAL DATA CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT END USERS 1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management 2. National Disaster Coordinating Council 3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and Feed Grains 4. El Niño / La Niña Task Force 5. Media 6. General Public and other End-Users

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