Farmland Investor. Apples Surge as New Trends Enhance Outlook for Washington Apples. Contents. Hancock Agricultural Investment Group

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1 Hancock Agricultural Investment Group Farmland Investor Volume 16, Number 1 Spring 008 Strong Farmland Performance Continues Apples Surge as New Trends Enhance Outlook for Washington Apples 007 marked the fifth straight year of double-digit total returns for the HAIG farmland portfolio. As in prior years, permanent crops were the main portfolio income driver, but permanent cropland appreciation declined from the strong double-digit returns of the past two years to a more moderate low single-digit return. Annual cropland remained the major appreciation driver for the portfolio, but also showed a moderating trend from recent peak levels. This newsletter analyzes underlying factors driving overall performance for HAIG s portfolio. It also focuses on HAIG s top performing commodity in 007, Washington apples, with a discussion of HAIG s apple investments and the U.S. apple industry. Continued on page Figure 1 - HAIG Farmland 1 Annualized Total Returns for Periods Ending December 31, 007 5% 4.6% 1.5% % 15.5% 1.3% 5% Contents 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year Strong Farmland Performance Continues Apples Surge as New Trends Enhance Outlook for Washington Apples All references to HAIG farmland refer to Hancock Agricultural Investment Group U.S. directly-held, investment grade properties only. The portfolio is valued at $61.6 million as of December 31, 007. All returns are calculated at the property level after deducting investment management fees. Since all return components are calculated separately, the sum of income and appreciation may not equal total return, due to rounding. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Potential for profit as well as loss exists. Please see Fee Addendum for more information on fees and performance.

2 Strong Farmland Performance Continued from page 1 Figure - HAIG Farmland Annual Returns by Component for Periods Ending December Total HAIG Income HAIG Total Appreciation HAIG Total Return HAIG farmland has produced a 1.3% annualized total return over the past ten years, generating even stronger near-term annualized performance over all other periods, as shown in Figure 1. Returns during the most recent three-year period have been particularly strong, as relatively high income combined with significant property value increases produced a total return of 4.6% for the three-year period ending December 31, 007. Figure 3 - HAIG Row Crop Annual Income and Appreciation Returns for Periods Ending December % Appreciation has played a larger role in HAIG farmland returns over the past few years as farmland values increased dramatically in many regions, particularly in the Midwest, due to ethanol-driven demand for properties capable -5% 00 of producing corn. HAIG Row Crop Income HAIG Row Crop Appreciation Figure 4 - HAIG Permanent Crop Annual Income and Appreciation Returns for Periods Ending December HAIG Permanent Crop Income HAIG Permanent Crop Appreciation As Figure illustrates, total returns have declined from the peak of 37.4% reached in, but the past two years returns remain in double digits. Appreciation has played a larger role in HAIG farmland returns over the past few years as farmland values increased dramatically in many regions, particularly in the Midwest, due to ethanol-driven demand for row crop properties capable of producing corn. In general, stronger commodity prices for corn and soybeans have been capitalized into land values in the region (Figure 3). Permanent crop appreciation also surged to

3 18.9% in and 16.7% in 006, but moderated to 3.% in 007. (See Figure 4.) Despite the recent increase in appreciation returns, HAIG s investment strategy remains focused on delivering strong income returns by combining higher risk/return directlyoperated permanent cropland with lower risk, stable return row cropland. Over the long-term, as shown in Figure 5, HAIG farmland income remains an important component of portfolio performance, providing on average 1.5% income over the most recent five-year period and 8.6% income over the most recent 10-year period. The interplay of row and permanent crop income on overall HAIG income performance is illustrated in Figure 6. Since 00, permanent crop income has been a significant performance driver for HAIG farmland investments. With an average of 58% of the HAIG portfolio in permanent cropland and 4% in row cropland over the most recent 10-year time period, HAIG s income returns follow the trend of its directly-operated permanent crop income. More stable row crop income has helped to moderate the highs and lows of permanent crop income performance over time. HAIG s permanent cropland produced 11.4% income in 007, with apples earning the highest income return at 3.4% for the year. Looking forward, HAIG expects the positive income performance of the past few years to continue. According to Jeff Conrad, HAIG President, We anticipate another strong year of incomedriven performance with cranberries and apples leading the way in 008. Figure 5 - HAIG Farmland Annualized Income and Appreciation Returns for periods Ending December 31, % 1% 3 5% 1 5% 8% 4% Figure 6 - HAIG Farmland Annual Income Returns for Periods Ending December % 5. 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 11.7% HAIG Row Crop Income 1.% HAIG Farmland Income % 8.5% 10.7% HAIG Permanent Crop Income 4.7% HAIG Farmland Appreciation 8.6% 3.7% Total HAIG Income We anticipate another strong year of income-driven performance with cranberries and apples leading the way in 008. Jeff Conrad, HAIG President Fee and Performance Addendum Performance figures are net of fees charged to customers. For each strategy shown, the performance has been reduced by the amount of the highest fee charged to any HAIG customer employing that particular strategy during the period under consideration.actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. HAIG s fees are available upon request and also may be found in Part II of the Hancock Natural Resource Group Form ADV. 3

4 The Apple of HAIG s Eye in was a particularly strong year for HAIG s apple properties, all of which are located in the state of Washington, the leading apple producing state in the U.S. HAIG s 1 apple properties, valued at $38.5 million at year end, produced an aggregate total return of 30.9%, comprised of 3.4% income and 6.4% appreciation. This is the second highest return year for HAIG apple properties. In, the HAIG apple portfolio achieved a total return of 44.6%, comprised of 48.9% income, but experienced negative appreciation of 3.7%.The apple industry can be volatile for all participants along the production and marketing chain. Variability in weather can affect crop supplies and quality, while changes in consumer preference and shifting export supply and demand can affect crop pricing and movement.the volatility inherent in the apple industry is reflected in HAIG s historical aggregate apple performance over the past 10 years from (See Figure 7.) On an annualized basis, however, over the 10-year period, including the volatility shown in Figure 7, HAIG s apple properties on average returned 11.4% income. Stores and suppliers working together to reduce volatility Volatility will always be a factor in the apple market, but today grocery chains are consolidating, and apple marketing agencies are joining forces.the emphasis of all market participants is on maintaining more consistent profit levels from the retail grocery store back to the apple grower. Grocery stores, apple marketing agencies and apple growers are all working toward getting the best quality fruit to the consumer in a timely manner. The chains have become more sophisticated in managing for consistent quality, which has helped stabilize revenue streams and improve profitability. This focus on quality has trickled down to grocery chain suppliers. Apple suppliers are rated by grocery stores in many areas, including quality arrivals, on-time delivery, billing accuracy, product shrink and many others. Other factors that are helping to stabilize the industry and promote growth include the increasing popularity of fruits and nuts as snack foods in an increasingly health conscious society. Even fast food chains such as McDonald s and Burger King have started adding apple slices as a menu item. Washington leads U.S. production. The state of Washington produced 4% of all U.S. apples in 006 and 8 of all fresh marketed apples in the U.S.Total bearing acreage in Washington is now estimated at 173,000 acres producing approximately 0 different varieties of apples, according to the 006 Washington Fruit Survey. The area s rich lava-ash soil and plentiful sunshine provide ideal conditions for growing high-quality apples. The arid climate also reduces insect and disease problems, providing Figure 7 - HAIG Apple Performance % HAIG Apple Income 00 a smooth, non-blemished finish to Washington apples. The state s applegrowing area is located primarily in the central to eastern area of the state, running from north to south along the Columbia River and west to east along the Yakima River. This area is also known for other fruit production including cherries, wine grapes and pears. The global apple industry has been evolving over the last 0 years, particularly in Washington. Consumer tastes have changed from preferring strictly Red and Golden Delicious apples to more multi-varietal lines such as Fuji, China is expected to become a net importer of apple products by as early as 010. The U.S. apple is more expensive in China compared to domestically produced fruit, but if the U.S. dollar remains weak and the yuan continues to appreciate, consumption of U.S. apples in China should increase. Pete Hancock, CPC International HAIG Apple Appreciation 4

5 Figure 8 - Washington Apple Production by Variety Red Delicious Fuji Source: CPC Packing,Tieton,Washington 1995 Gala Cripps Pink, Braeburn, Granny Smith and Gala varieties.this shift in preferences is illustrated in Figure 8, which shows how Washington apple production by variety has changed from 1990 to 006. Red and Golden Delicious varieties have increasingly fallen out of favor, and their prices have moderated downward, reflecting the changing consumer demand that is steering multi-varietal product into most grocery stores across the country. Apple growers and apple marketing agencies across Washington have responded by planting and marketing the new varieties demanded by both domestic and export customers. Strong export demand The majority of apples produced in Washington are sold in the fresh market. That is, they are sold as fresh apples and are not canned for filling or juiced for apple juice.the export market remains strong for Washington apples as countries such as Taiwan demand high quality Fujis, and Canada demands high quality Galas. Mexico is the top export destination for U.S. apples at 9.1 million boxes. Mexican consumers purchase a number of different varieties, Golden Delicious Granny Smith Braeburn 006 Other including significant amounts of Red and Golden Delicious apples. China s market role According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) data, China is by far the world s largest apple producer at 3 million tons and a close second to the EU in export volume. However, the U.S. dominates the world market in export value at $640 million.the rise of China as a major apple producer and exporter has not stopped the U.S. from exporting Washington apples to China. Imported U.S. apples are valued by the Chinese consumer for their quality and appearance, and are given as gifts, but much cheaper Chinese apples are purchased for everyday consumption. According to the FAS, Chinese apples have started to compete more with U.S. apples throughout Chinese grocery stores as the domestic apple has a very similar appearance to the U.S. imported varieties. U.S. apple exports to China declined by 33% in 006. However, according to Pete Hancock, chairman of CPC International Apple Company in Tieton,Washington, China is expected to become a net importer of apple products by as early as 010. The U.S. apple is more expensive in China compared to domestically produced fruit, but if the U.S. dollar remains weak and the yuan continues to appreciate, consumption of U.S. apples in China should increase. Another factor that also affects the U.S.-China apple market is the lack of infrastructure within the Chinese apple industry. In the U.S., apple packers are able to prolong the life of an apple by using controlled atmosphere storage, where the apples are kept at the optimum temperature, without oxygen, to insure a quality product that will still be fresh after 6-10 months in storage. The Chinese apple industry does not at this point have this type of storage available and thus must market fresh apples within a few months of picking and then import apples as supplies decrease. Role of Southern Hemisphere producers Southern Hemisphere apple producers fill a gap in the U.S. domestic market during the late summer and early fall months of the year. However, imported apples are increasingly viewed unfavorably by consumers in the U.S. and are believed to be just filling the gap until Washington apples become widely available in the early to late fall. Advancements in controlled storage facilities have helped prolong the life of domestic apples, providing better quality over longer time periods. Apple marketing agencies and growers have gotten the message from grocery chains that if they can extend the life of an apple so that a consumer can get a quality product in late spring and through the summer months, they will purchase larger quantities of domestic apples, reducing the reliance on importing apples from the Southern Hemisphere. U.S. apples compete with Southern Continued on page 6 5

6 The Apple of HAIG s Eye in 007 Continued from page 5 Hemisphere apples in the EU and somewhat in Asia, but growing cycles in New Zealand and Chile are the reverse of the U.S., so there is little overlap. Recently, the weaker U.S dollar has given Washington apples an additional edge over Southern Hemisphere competitors. In addition, current year production is down, due primarily to severe frosts in the Hawkes Bay Region, a major apple and wine grape growing region in New Zealand. production is only 5-35% of New Zealand s, Chile s 50-6 and the U.S %. Industry cooperation should help sustain profitability As discussed above, numerous global, domestic and local factors continue to affect the Washington apple industry. The industry remains volatile relative to other agricultural markets, as it has been for over 100 years. However, recent positive developments related to cooperation among industry players to produce, store and market better quality fruit, along with some favorable developments in global export markets, suggest that the industry should remain profitable for the foreseeable future. According to Pete Hancock, We expect it to be very profitable over the next years. We feel the We expect it to be very profitable over the next years. We feel the positives far outweigh the negatives. We work hard to grow the best apples in the world, and these are exciting times in our industry. Pete Hancock, CPC International According to the FAS, 6 of positives far outweigh the negatives. New Zealand apples on a volume basis We work hard to grow the best apples go to the EU and 16% go to the U.S. in the world, and these are exciting times Currently, the relative strength of the in our industry. New Zealand dollar is having a negative impact on export value, and Braeburn USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Global Agriculture apple export returns to growers are Information network GAIN Report # NZ estimated to be NZ $13-$18 per carton, Sources: HAIG, 006 Washington Fruit Survey, CPC below the NZ$0 cost of production. International Apple Company and USDA Foreign According to the FAS, China s cost of Agricultural Service.... Hancock Natural Resource Group 99 High Street 6th Floor Boston, MA First Class Mail U.S. Postage PAID Boston, MA Permit No. 11 Hancock Agricultural Investment Group is a division of Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc., a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Manulife Financial Corp. Farmland Investor is published by Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc., Boston, MA, for the institutional investment community. It is distributed with the understanding that Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc. is not rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. For further information on any of the topics covered in Farmland Investor, contact Jeffrey A. Conrad, CFA, HAIG President at (617) or visit our web site at

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