Adaptation in the Post-2012 Climate Regime: Some Perspectives from Asia

Transcription

1 Adaptation in the Post-2012 Climate Regime: Some Perspectives from Asia Ancha Srinivasan, Ph.D. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) 1

2 IGES Stakeholder Consultations Round I (2005) All issues including adaptation * Republic of Korea (16 June) * Indonesia (29 June) * India (29 July) * China (30 August) * Viet Nam (28 September) * Regional (15 September) * Japan (Interviews with experts) Round II (2006) Sub-regional consultations on energy security & SD, CDM, technology and adaptation Northeast Asia, Beijing 3-4 July Southeast Asia, Bangkok July South Asia, New Delhi 9-10 August Round III (2007) Theme-based consultations in China and India (August-September) on sectoral approaches, technology transfer, co-benefits and adaptation financing & mainstreaming Expert consultations and Questionnaires 2

3 Publications based on IGES Consultations on the Post-2012 Climate Regime

4 Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Asia Sector Projected Impacts Source: IPCC, 2007 Agriculture/ Forestry Water Health Coastal/ Marine Increased risk of hunger in South Asia due to 30% decline in cereal yields Increase in agricultural water demand by 6-10% or more for every 1 o C rise in temperature; Decline in productivity of grasslands and milk yield; More forest fires Decline in water availability from ~1820 m 3 /yr to ~1140 m 3 /yr in India by 2050; May adversely affect >1 billion people Disappearance of Tibetan Plateau glaciers of <4km length with 3 o C rise Shrinkage of area of glaciers by 80% over Tibetan plateau from 500,000 km 2 in 1995 to 100,000 km 2 by the 2030s Exacerbation of Cholera in South Asia due to increase in water temperature Increased endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoea all over Asia due to floods and droughts; Loss of 2500 km 2 mangroves in Asia with 1 m sea level rise; Flooding of Red (5000 km 2 ) & Mekong (15-20,000 km 2) River deltas Loss of ~30% of Asia s coral reefs in next 30 years million people face flooding risk by

5 Key Issues Discussed I. National interests & priorities; Assessment of post-2012 climate regime proposals and preferences II. International protocol on adaptation III. Adaptation financing IV. Integration of adaptation concerns in sectoral/national development and ODA 5

6 Developed countries Largely a national responsibility & climate regime should only play a facilitative role. Huge challenge that cannot be addressed only through UNFCCC and KP; May become a bottomless pit for funds. Initiatives such as ODA must be accounted for. Scientific uncertainties in differentiating the impacts of climate variability and climate change hinder discussions on burden sharing. Developing countries are only interested in incentives without concomitant mitigation responsibilities. Diverse Perspectives Developing countries Largely a responsibility of developed countries and international regime should be designed in a way to deliver such responsibility. Developed countries not seriously committed (equity and justice). Adaptation financing should be in addition to ODA. It must be considered a compensation rather than aid. Focus on scientific uncertainties is an excuse for inaction. Climate negotiations paid little attention to adaptation or incentives; Linking mitigation responsibilities with adaptation is not justified; Divisions among the developing countries are also a reason for slow progress: 6

7 I. National Interests & Priorities -1 Kyoto Protocol had limited influence in reducing GHG emissions worldwide or on adaptation in Asia to date. Future regime must consider Asian concerns, interests and priorities (including adaptation) more effectively than before. GHG mitigation commitments in post-2012 regime should not constrain adaptation & sustainable development in Asia. Implications of proposals such as 50% GHG reduction by 2050 on developmental space and/or adaptive capacity of developing Asia are to be assessed. Post-2012 regime discussions should give equal weight to adaptation as mitigation; Developing Asia is more interested in a package comprising mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing rather than mitigation targets alone. 7

8 I. National Interests & Priorities - 2 Future regime as well as national policy makers should provide credible signals to enable long-term adaptation investments in developing Asia. To foster adaptation, post-2012 climate regime should Consider equity and justice more thoroughly than before Facilitate synergies between top-down support and bottom-up engagement approaches Increase focus on developing adaptation technologies in key areas (coastal management, agriculture) and encourage integration of indigenous coping strategies in adaptation planning at all levels Enhance research capacity to assess local impacts and prioritize adaptation measures Promote regional cooperation in trans-boundary issues such as river basin management Involve the private sector more actively (initially in sectors dependent on natural resources, and tourism) 8

9 Coverage on adaptation policies and measures as reflected by number of pages in National Communications of selected Asian countries 9

10 Post-2012 Regime Proposals on Adaptation - Asian Preferences 1. Adaptation as one of the components of an international framework (8 proposals) 2. Proposals discussing impacts or adaptation comprehensively (5 proposals) 3. Proposals on a single component of adaptation (e.g., Adaptation financing) (15 proposals) Preferences Proposals by Ott et al., CAN and Mueller & Hepburn (Aviation levy proposal) attracted the most attention. Participants favoured proposals on mainstreaming adaptation into development, and those that made adequate provisions for new and additional financing for adaptation (e.g., TERI s proposal). 10

11 II. International Protocol on Adaptation Why & what? To facilitate a strengthened, sustained and multi-faceted international approach to adaptation (may enhance mitigation efforts by DCs) Adaptation scope, baselines, and targets; Decision making structures; Mechanisms for mainstreaming and monitoring at international and national levels (e.g. adaptation PDD); Market instruments; Burden sharing mechanisms for financial and technological flows; Targets for financing, Metrics for adaptation, etc. India s attempt at COP8 in 2002 & AOSIS response Many stakeholders sought for a global campaign to raise awareness on the need for adaptation protocol. Some were sceptical, however, due to Lack of clarity on the scope of adaptation Diversion of attention from mitigation & potential loss of linkages Long negotiation process Lack of clear burden sharing mechanisms 11

12 III. Adaptation Financing Adequacy, Predictability, Accessibility and Sustainability of financial flows Huge gap between estimated costs ($28-86 billion per year) and available funds (pledged amounts are not adequate to cover even LDC priorities) Diversification of financing instruments Streamlining of market mechanisms to promote adaptation Fast track approval procedures for priority projects Deployment of support mechanisms such as micro credit, micro insurance and weather derivatives Limited availability of insurance instruments (only 10% as against 54% in the Americas) Need for a region-wide catastrophic insurance facility 12

13 Burden Sharing Principles 1. Adaptation beneficiaries pay principle Beneficiaries of adaptation measures bear the costs Not equitable in terms of historical responsibility and capacity 2. Emitters pay principle (polluters pay principle) Emitters pay in proportion to cumulative GHG emissions over a certain period (e.g., after 1992, after industrial revolution, etc.) 3. Ability to pay principle Burdens shared in proportion to the levels of income or wealth 4. Climate-change winners pay principle Burdens shared in proportion to climate change benefits May not provide much incentives to curb emissions Climate change benefits and emissions are not necessarily linked 13

14 Financial potential of selected proposals Proposal International Air Travel Adaptation Levy (IATAL) (Muller & Hepburn 2006) Global Carbon tax (Zhu et al., 2004) Two-track approach for adaptation funding (Bouwer and Aerts 2006) Specialized funds (Tuvalu 2005 & 2008) Fund raising mechanisms US$10 on each overseas ticket may raise up to US$8 billion annually, as there are 800m international air travelers per year. US$1/ton CO2 in Annex I countries Up to US$14 billion annually (Authors calculation) Fixed percentage of GDP for Annex I countries 0.03% of GDP produces a total of about US$10.9 billion (Authors calculation) A share of proceeds from a levy on fossil fuel sales in Annex I countries effectively same as carbon tax Risk management schemes (Parry et al 2005) Mandatory contributions from industrialized countries in proportion to their GHG emissions and GNP: Carbon tax + payment based on GDP 14

15 Views on Adaptation Financing - 1 None of the proposals are likely to raise needed amounts; Negotiators should explore options for broadening the funding base both within and outside UNFCCC. Both emitters pay & ability to pay principles have the potential to raise sufficient funds, but determining a politically acceptable combination of thresholds for burden sharing remains a challenge. Create a mandatory global funding scheme based on polluter pays (historical responsibility) and climate change winners pay principles (e.g. global carbon tax and increased levy from all flexibility mechanisms). Donors should promote innovative risk sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance to assist the most vulnerable 15

16 Views on Adaptation Financing - 2 Public resources must play a larger role in financing adaptation initially (especially in areas where private initiatives are inadequate). Future regime should identify opportunities for effective involvement of the private sector. LDCs and SIDS should get preferential support from adaptation funds; Streamlining of procedures to access adaptation funds, including the removal of co-financing requirement, are necessary for LDCs and SIDS. Support to early warning systems with global benefits should be given more attention. Additional funds for micro-adaptation beyond the current USD 5 million is critical. Micro-adaptation projects can contribute to the global benefit of poverty alleviation. 16

17 Options for Enhancing Resource Flows for Adaptation in Asia Increased attention to adaptation by regional & international financial institutions (ADB & WB clean energy investment frameworks, environmental transformation fund, etc.) Development of market mechanisms to facilitate adaptation (adaptation credits, adaptation vouchers, payment for ecosystem services, corporate social responsibility, etc.) Enhanced synergies among climate, disaster risk and development assistance communities North-South and South-South public and private investments including strengthening of linkages between adaptation and voluntary carbon markets Creating a region-wide adaptation facility along the lines of ADB CDM facility & through collecting a levy on FDI 17

18 Additional options Mobilize new and additional resources through Maximizing local efforts (microfinance, customized credit schemes, climate-insensitive income generating opportunities, etc.) Climate proofing of ODA investments by integrating adaptation concerns in development assistance Enhance the role of insurance sector through Creation of an Asian Catastrophic Risk Insurance facility Utilization of risk transfer instruments such as weather derivatives, weather hedges and catastrophe bonds Insurance backstop to cover premiums by vulnerable communities Ideally, adaptation should be a self-sustaining mechanism in the long run at all levels without much dependence on external assistance. 18

19 IV. Mainstreaming Progress in agriculture and water sectors & ODA National agricultural policy documents in Bangladesh, China, India and the Philippines refer to the need for considering climate variability but do not consider climate change impacts explicitly. Water managers showed little enthusiasm for factoring long-term climate predictions into their calculations. Very limited attention to climate change adaptation in ODA projects in Asia Synergies between adaptation, disaster risk management and desertification, etc. are yet to be exploited effectively. NAPA process in some LDCs (e.g., Bangladesh) served as a catalyst at least in planning stages. 19

20 Barriers to Mainstreaming Lack of awareness among policymakers Mismatch between the temporal and spatial scales of climate projections and information needs Lack of capacity of officials to integrate climate information into sector planning processes Limited leverage of environment ministries on sectoral agencies and policies High reliance on structural and technological options Ineffective stakeholder involvement Institutional barriers: Inefficient regulatory frameworks, Fragmentation & weak coordination Lack of policy coherence and consistency between adaptation and development goals 20

21 Post-2012 regime - Mainstreaming Demonstrating promising options of mainstreaming & identification of no-regrets actions through Nairobi Work Programme and GEF initiatives Mandating all development planning and assistance policies to undergo an adaptation check. Creating incentive schemes for mainstreaming (preferential loan facilities, reduced premiums for insurance) Building support for more detailed V&A assessments and mainstreaming metrics Strengthening institutional frameworks and human capacities to mainstream adaptation concerns 21

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