Outlook for agricultural and fertilizer demand in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos

Transcription

1 11/4/211 Outlook for agricultural and fertilizer demand in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos Rod LEFROY International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Regional Coordinator for CIAT in Asia Vientiane, Hanoi, Bangkok IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific, 2-4 November, Sanya, Hainan, P.R. China Outline Country profiles compared to neighbours - Climate, Land Resources, Changing agricultural systems Prospects 1

2 11/4/211 Profiles of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Lao PDR with a comparison to some neighbours India China Myanmar Lao PDR Thailand Cambodia Profiles of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Lao PDR with a comparison to some neighbours HDI Population (million) Birth rate (%) Land Area (million ha) GDP GDP growth (US$ billion) (ann. %) ave. 1-9 Myanmar * Cambodia Laos Thailand *21-6 2

3 11/4/211 Distribution of Major Topographic and Agroecological zones and of Populations Deltas Coastal Mountains Uplands Lowlands Source: Johnston et al. IWMI & CIAT (Pending) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Land Area by AEZ Cambodia Thailand Myanmar Laos Population by AEZ Cambodia Thailand Myanmar Laos Mountain Highland Uplands Coast Lowland Delta Mountain Highland U/H Upland Coast Lowland Delta Average Rainfall and Variability Source: Johnston et al. IWMI & CIAT (Pending) 3

4 11/4/211 Accessibility Development of Road Networks ( ) Source: ADB Major Land Use Patterns Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR 1 5 Very dependent on: Definitions of categories (,,, etc.) Thailand Data quality Does indicate relatively small proportion that is cropped 4

5 11/4/211 Major Land Use Patterns Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Myanmar Major Land Use Patterns compared on the same scale Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand 1 5

6 11/4/211 Fertilizer use and trends Nitrogen Fertilizers (t N) Phosphate Fertilizers (t P 2 5 ) Potash Fertilizers (t K 2 ) Myanmar 32,292 5,692 8,469 4,538 1,548 4,4 Cambodia 7,763 19,262 12,829 7, Laos ,15,277 1,518, , ,486 35, ,86 Thailand 1,18,849 1,491,424 48,15 255,49 273, ,644 Source: FAOSTAT Trends driven by: increased annual cropping increased permanent cropping Cropping Patterns Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Roots & Tubers Dried Chillies 8 Mangoes, 1 5 etc Fresh Fruit 1 4 Rice 2 Sugar 5 cane 2 Large changes in the area cropped & cropping patterns Dried Chillies Tropical Fruits Fresh Vegetables Sugar cane Dried Beans Rice 6

7 11/4/ Cropping Patterns Cambodia Rice Thailand Lao PDR 2 Comparatively less change in land use - - Dried Beans Rice Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Beans Mangoes, etc. 2 1 Sugar cane Cropping Patterns Oil 15 Palm Dried Beans Dried Beans 7

8 11/4/211 Cropping Patterns Cambodia Thailand Lao PDR 1 Roots & Tubers Dried Fruit Tropical Fruits Mangoes, tc. Dried Beans Changes in Cropping Patterns Rice: Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos : Laos, Cambodia, : Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar,, Thailand Sugarcane: Laos : Laos : Myanmar, Beans: Myanmar :, Thailand : Thailand 8

9 11/4/211 Changes in Cropping Patterns In contrast to the statistics: Large increases in planting in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (as well as elsewhere) driven by high prices and projected demand Increased production in areas not particularly well suited to rubber climatically Changes in Cropping In addition to the statistics: : Officially approx. 55,ha May be closer to 8,ha Cambodia: 3, ha in 25 15, ha in 29 >3, ha in 21 Large increases in Laos and Myanmar Yields doubling as new varieties being adopted Need to match improved varieties with improved agronomy intercropping, soil erosion control, and fertilizer use Returns on fertilizer up to $6 for each $1 invested 9

10 11/4/211 2 to 21 Area: 237,6 to 56,4 ha Yield: 8.36 t/ha to 16.9 t/ ha Production: 1.99 to 9.45 million t Currently:7% exported; 3% used domestically Processing capacity: mill. t roots/year 6 ethanol refineries soon: 55 million L/year Will require: 34% production 5% exports in 29 production in agroecological zones in Each dot represents 1 ha Land Use Change and Fertilizer use in Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos Laos: Extremely low use currently Government promotes the use of organic fertilizers Expansion of Annual Cropping: Strong potential for increased use of fertilizer, especially when linked to strong markets -, Rice Expansion of Cropping: Strong potential for increased use of fertilizer - Oil palm, Sugarcane,, Expansion of livestock: Slow move into fertilizer management of forages and justification of fertilizing crops for residues 1