Professor and Director. University of Dar Es Salaam,

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1 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Southern African Region Pius Z. Yanda Professor and Director Institute of Resource Assessment University of Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

2 Presentation Outline Climate Change Impact Who is Vulnerable? Adaptation P j d Cli Ch I Projected Climate Change Impacts Social Dimensions of Climate Change Challenges and Way Forward

3 Evidence of Climate Change

4 Evidence of Climate Change Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %, CO2 is the largest contributor.

5 Evidence of climate change As a result, the world has warmed by an average of 0.76 Celsius since preindustrial times, Global average temperature is projected to increase further by 1.8 to 4 C if no action is taken.

6 Evidence of Climate Change Concentration of CO2 together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has gone beyond the allowable limit. It is now causing global warming.

7 Evidence of Climate Change We are all aware of indicators of global warming. Global temperature increase Changes in rainfall pattern and intensity Enhanced extreme events (droughts and floods)

8 Evidence of Climate Change Snow melting Mts. Kilimanjaro and Rwenzori Sea level rise due to glacial melting in the northern and southern hemisphere

9 Climate Change Impacts

10 Climate Change Impacts Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems, Examples of various effects are; Crop failure due to severe drought Livestock mortality due to severe drought Flooding due to excessive Rains ffects on ecosystems (E.g. 30% decrease in fish yields in Lake Tanganyika (IPCC 2007).

11 Climate Change Impacts Examples of various effects are; Potential threat to other biodiversity resources (e.g. Hippos) due to droughts Migration from resources poor to resource rich areas (humans, livestock, wildlife) Resulting to conflicts, Farmers livestock keepers (e.g. wetlands) Human wildlife

12 IPCC 4AR; Easterling et al., 2007

13 Rainfall in (mm) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Month Figure 3: Trends in monthly rainfall over the last 60 years Source: Lema and Majule (2009) A change is reflected in terms of decreasing rainfall amount; shift in on set of rains and reduced duration, disappearing of one rainfall peak=increasing dry spells

14 Observed Changes in rainfall patterns-case studies Shift of rainfall season (starting late ending early) Low crop productivity (soil moisture stress due to disappearance of one rainfall peak) Increased pests and diseases due to increasing temperature Changing of late to early maturing crop varieties Disappearance of some indigenous or local crop types and varieties (for example sorghum and local maize) Changing in cropping systems and patterns of crops in the field Loss of crop quality Rwanda Science Policy Dialogue on Climate Change, Laico Umbano Hotel, October, 2010

15 Crop failure due to drought

16 Livestock Mortality due to Severe Drought

17 Livestock Mortality due to Severe Drought

18 Flooding Due to Excessive Rains 18

19 Effects on Ecosystems due to Droughts (Hippos)

20 Who is Vulnerable?

21 Who is vulnerable? Climate change affects everyone, However, vulnerabilities differ due to different adaptive capacities, Africa is the most vulnerable continent; Climate change impacts on natural systems (water, rainfall, etc.), (,, ), Dependence on natural resources for livelihoods, Low technology to address climate change challenges, Exposure to multiple stresses, Thus, low adaptive capacity.

22 Other Stress Factors Countries Facing Food Emergency

23 Other Stress Factors

24 Who is vulnerable? Likewise, i at the local l level l different social groups are affected differently, The most vulnerable are; Heavily dependent on natural resources, Exposed to multiple risks of climate change (poor, women and children), Exposed to other stress factors.

25 Who is vulnerable? For example, women and men are affected differently, Unequal power relations, Differential access to resources and economic opportunities. Climate change places additional burdens on women By altering roles and tasks they perform E.g. travelling long distances searching for water and firewood

26 Who is vulnerable?

27 Projected Climate Change Impacts

28 Projected Impacts of Climate Change Climate change will affect various sectors in the region. Food Production Falling crop yields in many areas 50% crop yield reduction by 2020 (IPCC 2007) 90% fall in crop revenues by 2100 (IPCC 2007) Possible rising i yields in some high h altitude regions

29 Projected Impacts of Climate Water Resources Change Small mountain glaciers disappear. Thus, water supplies will be threatened in several areas. Overall significant ifi decreases of water availability in many areas. Arid and semi-arid areas will be the most affected

30 Projected Impacts of Climate Sea Level Rise; Change Projected to rise between the present and the end of the century by m. At the rate of 3.8 mm per year. Thermal expansion contributes to 70 75%

31 Projected Impacts of Climate Sea Level Rise Change Threatens major cities and settlements in coastal areas Salt water intrusions affecting water availability Salt water intrusion in agricultural land (e.g. paddy fields) Beach erosion of formerly agricultural land (coconut fields)

32 Major and Capital Cities of Africa Major and Capital Cities of Africa at risk due to sea level rise

33 Projected Impacts of Climate Ecosystems Change Extensive damage to coral reefs Rising number of species face extinction Further reduction in lake productivity (e.g. Lake Tanganyika) Projected losses of over 50% for some bird species by 2050

34 Projected Impacts of Climate Change Rising i intensity it of; Storms Forest Fires Droughts Flooding Heat waves

35 Projected Impacts of Climate Change Human Security and Conflicts; Climate change threatens stability and human security Rising i ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as extreme events, floods and famines become more frequent Climate change could force millions of people from their native land by the end of the century

36 Projected Impacts of Climate Change Source: Stern Review

37 Social Dimensions of Climate Change

38 Climate Change Opportunities and Challenges Extreme events provide opportunities and challenges for certain social groups; Opportunity for the well-off social groups enhances wealth Acquire cattle, land and other households asserts from poor social group at cheaper prices

39 Climate Change Opportunity and Challenges Climate change poses challenges to the poor people; Losing their asserts and become poorer Poverty vicious cycle However, community social asserts provide an important role in addressing hazards, This poses a fundamental question on how to target the needy social groups for adaptation.

40 Planning Scale for Climate Change Interventions Attention span for a person that depend d on subsistence economy is very short term, Key issue is how to get the next meal. In such a situation, how do we design an intervention strategy that is appealing to all key players? We should frame climate change in the context of local priorities.

41 Who are the cause of this global bl crisis? ii? Sh ld b l k d i f hi i l Should be looked at it from historical perspectives, In the beginning of 20 th Century most of the developed countries went through industrial revolution Involved massive burning of fossil fuel Thus massive emission of GHGs

42 The Prevailing Equation Development in the developed countries brought about global warming and the associated impacts. Climate change is undermining i development efforts in developing counties. Thus compromising efforts to attain Poverty Reduction and MDGs targets. =

43 Fairness in Dealing with Climate Change Impacts No compliance on commitments by Annex 1 countries to the Kyoto Protocol GHG emissions reduction targets are not met. Inadequate support for mitigation efforts Inadequate support for adaptations Difficult access to funds Bureaucracy Length process Demand for technical packaging of proposals

44 Fairness in Dealing with Climate Change Impacts No recognition of contribution of developing countries in climate change mitigation, Tropical counties have intact forests with huge carbon stocks, The forests also sequester CO2 from the atmosphere The forests have been well managed at the expense of other development activities Major deforestations have partly been by developed countries for timber logging, establishment of ranches and now biofuels.

45 Logging from Tropical Forests

46 Global balance of CO 2 (decade 90) Tropical deforestation Origin 1,6 CO 2 Emissions Destination 23 2,3 Terrestrial uptake Fossil fuel combustion 6,3 2,3 3,3 Ocean uptake Accumulation in the atmosphere Billions of tonnes of carbon per year, average over the decade Source : Report from the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC)

47 Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Us? Payment for additionality, Not based on stewardship, Requirement of technically demanding di process of MARV Advocacy on market based funding mechanism The question is how will a poor community member with hardly 0.5 ha of tilled land going to benefit?

48 Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Us? Even for those who may have some forests, how will they access the market? What do we learn from other mitigation mechanisms, CDM only 3% of the all the funded projects are in Africa. What should we do with REDD carefully designed to ensure the initiative enhances sustainable development, What else could be motivation for REDD? Enhancement of ecosystem integrity provision of goods and services

49 Adaptation Options Community response to climate change impacts Community Based Adaptations Limitations Lack of credit facilities Limited it technology Inadequate information on projected level of impacts

50 Implement appropriate agronomic practices at community level

51 Challenges and Way Forward

52 Challenges Inadequate human and financial resources, Limited national level information on; Climate change impacts to natural and social systems Vulnerability of natural and social systems Inadequate packaging of existing information Inadequate understanding of community response to climate change related hazards e.g. role of social networks.

53 The Way Forward Need for integration of climate change in the development agenda Climate change is no longer an environmental issue it is a cross-cutting issue Need to realize some community based adaptation ti strategies t for scaling-up,

54 The Way Forward Need for information generation (impacts and vulnerability assessments), Will provide basis for informed planning for interventions. Need for capacity building at different levels; Integration of climate change in the education curricula. Training for different cadres Science policy dialogues Science - policy dialogues Awareness raising

55 The Way Forward How doe we consolidate our regional efforts? Regional Centres of Excellences to coordinate proposed interventions All these require; Political will Mobilization of human and financial resources I am sure we can.

56 Role of the Universities Knowledge generation Research Capacity building Mi Mainstreaming i climate change into the university curricula Short courses to extension workers Communicating scientific knowledge to policy makers University collaborations to share the available human and physical resources

57 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

58 Thank you for listening

59 Thank you for listening

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