The State of Sustainable Agriculture in the EU

Transcription

1 The State of Sustainable Agriculture in the EU ISO SEMINAR 29 November 2017 DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission Jens SCHAPS Director Markets and Observatories

2 2 2 Public consultation: Agreement on the call for a modern and simpler CAP

3 The process 3

4 4 Future CAP: Objectives and priorities of intervention Foster a smart and resilient agricultural sector Bolster environmental care and climate action Strengthen the socio-economic fabric of rural areas Enhance knowledge-basis More subsidiarity/performance Enhance synergies with other policies

5 5 Towards a new delivery model EU LEVEL Objectives of the CAP Broad types of interventions Basic requirements MEMBER STATES/ Regions Tailor the CAP interventions to their specific needs Compliance requirements CAP Strategic Plan Will cover interventions in both Pillar I and Pillar II Targets for performance at MS/Regional level

6 A fair income support 6

7 7 A fair income support More targeted distribution of direct payments, e.g. through Compulsory capping and degressive payments Enhanced focus on a redistributive payment Support targeted to full-time farmers Better align support levels between Member States

8 8 Investing to improve farmers' market rewards Farmers ability to make more money from the market should be enhanced, e.g. through Boosting investments, focus on supporting diversification efforts, innovative financial instruments Effective synergies with research and innovation Supporting efforts for emerging rural value chain (bio-economy, bioenergy and circular economy)

9 The global dimension of the CAP: Trade

10 Risk management 10

11 Pressure on natural resources 11

12 Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob, et al., 2014) 12 Evolution of precipitation Projected changes in mean annual and summer precipitation (%) in the period compared to the baseline period

13 Projected yield changes for

14 14 Bolstering environmental care and climate action Make green architecture simpler, more targeted, flexible and ambitious, e.g. through: Environmental objectives: EU level and national CAP plans Mix of mandatory and voluntary measures Voluntary entry level schemes and agri-environmental/climate measures EU-wide requirement for a nutrient management plan and incentives for precision agriculture Better use of research results and support proliferation of modern technologies

15 15 The Sugar Sector in the context of the future CAP Sugar important sector in EU agriculture, limited area but remunerative with opportunities in the EU and globally Support measures available as for other products (voluntary coupled support, import regime, private storage aid, crisis measures) Post quota transition has started, industry will adjust to new market reality

16 Market data 2016/17 and forecast 2017/18 EU production: 16.8 million tonnes, coupled with World deficit: million tonnes (second year in a row) Forecast for 2017/18: >20 million tonnes, driven by increase in area and yields, World surplus million tonnes EU ending stocks: ~2 million tonnes including carry-forward, comparable to 2015/2016 Forecast for 2017/18: 2 million tonnes Import: ~2.5 million tonnes, Export ~1.3 million tonnes Forecast for 2017/18: Import ~1.5 million tonnes, Export ~2.8 million tonnes (really difficult to foresee, too much depending on prices)

17 Sugar balance sheet (million tonnes)

18 EU market price and world market prices London 5 and NY 11 - nearby future - /t

19 Market signals 550 Spot/trade price and forward curves, London No Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 300 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

20 Some open questions... How will the EU white sugar price relate to world sugar prices? How attractive will the EU market be for ACP/EBA sugar? How will sugar consumption develop and which role will alternative sweeteners play? What will be the uptake of isoglucose by the food industry? Which other outlets for sugar beet will exist (ethanol production, biomass, bio-economy, etc.)?