COTTON REPORT. Kai Hughes. Cotton Production & Trade Trends. Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee

Transcription

1 COTTON REPORT Kai Hughes Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee Cotton Production & Trade Trends International Cotton Advisory Committee

2 WORLD COTTON AREA AND PRICES US cts/lb Area million hectares Cotlook A Index (previous season) /1 5/6 1/11 15/

3 PRICE OF COTTON VS. COMPETING CROPS AT PLANTING TIME N. HEMISPHERE (21-217)* ratio Maize Soybean Rice Sugar Sorghum *World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet)

4 WORLD COTTON AREA AND YIELD million hectares 4 N. Hemisphere S. Hemisphere Yield kg/ha /7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17

5 kg/ha 85 WORLD AVERAGE YIELD (rainfed + irrigated) /87 91/92 96/97 1/2 6/7 11/12 16/17

6 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/2 21/22 WORLD COTTON YIELDS REMAIN STAGNANT SINCE 25/6 kg/ha

7 COTTON PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY Australia Turkey 4% 3% Uzbek. 3% Fr. Africa 5% ROW 8% 217/18: 25.6 Million tons India 24% 6 M Brazil 6% Pakistan 8% China 21% India is since 215/16, the world s largest producer of cotton US 18%

8 CHANGES IN WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION Uzbekistan Turkey Australia Fr. Africa Brazil Pakistan USA China India /17 17/ million tons

9 Indonesia Brazil USA Vietnam Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan India WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION /16 16/17 17/ million tons Brazil 3% Indonesia 3% Vietnam 5% Bangladesh 6% Turkey 6% USA 3% Pakistan 9% 217/18: 25.2 Million tons ROW 12% India 21% China 32%

10 CHINA COTTON CONSUMPTION Million tons 12 Share 5% Consumption Share 4% 3% 2% 2 1% 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16 %

11 WORLD COTTON EXPORTS Uzbekistan Brazil Australia /17 17/18 4% India.8 Fr. Africa USA The U.S remains the world s largest exporter of cotton million tons

12 EXPORTS: SHARE OF WORLD TOTAL 5% 4% USA 3% 2% India 1% Fr. Africa Brazil % 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16

13 COTTON IMPORTS BY COUNTRY million tons /15 15/16 16/17 17/18.5. Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey

14 SHARE OF WORLD IMPORTS 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Rest of Asia China % 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 1/11 15/16

15 WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION AND MILL USE million tons Production Mill Use Accumulated Surplus Through 14/15: 13.8 million tons Stock Reduction in 15/16 and 16/17: 4.4 million tons /1 5/6 1/11 15/16

16 ESTIMATED SIZE OF CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE million tons Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17

17 /1 4/5 8/9 12/13 16/17 million tons 25 WORLD ENDING STOCKS World-less China China 5

18 Season-average (US cents/lb) COTLOOK A INDEX /75 84/85 94/95 4/5 14/15

19 ASSISTANCE TO COTTON PRODUCTION Direct support to production Border protection Crop insurance subsidies Minimum support price mechanisms Input subsidies Transportation subsidies

20 ASSISTANCE TO COTTON Billion US$ /98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16 1.5

21 ASSISTANCE TO COTTON AND PRICES Billion US$ A Index (US$/lb) /98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16.4

22 WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION UNDER ASSISTANCE Million tons Without Assistance With Assistance 4 3 Average with Assistance: 55% 83% 48% 76% 71% 7% /98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 12/13 15/16

23 WORLD TEXTILE FIBRE DEMAND (END-USE)

24 WORLD CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR TEXTILE FIBRES Million tons Cotton Wool Non-Cellulosic Cellulosic 4 2

25 WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION REMAINS BELOW PEAK Million tons

26 POPULATION Billions WORLD TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION Million tons TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION Kgs per capita

27 WORLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA Kilograms COTTON CHEMICAL FIBERS

28 COTTON S MARKET SHARE Million tons Market Share (%)

29 Million tons TEXTILE FIBRE CONSUMPTION BY REGION END-USE Developed Countries Developing Countries C. and E. Europe & former USSR C. and E. Europe & form Develo ped Countri es 51% C. and E. Europe Develo & ped form Countri es 31% 196 Develo ping Countri es 32% Develo ping Countri es 65% 216

30 WORLD POPULATION Billions Developed Countries Developing Countries C. and E. Europe & former USSR Change in Population (Billions) Africa Asia M.E & Europe L.A & Caribbean

31 WORLD CHEMICAL FIBER YARN PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE Million tons 8 6 Polyester Others 4 2

32 POLYESTER FIBRE PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES % 15% 1% 5% % -5%

33 GLOBAL POLYESTER PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE Million tons Filament Staple %CAGR Polyester Filament production has nearly tripled since 22.

34 TOP 5 POLYESTER PRODUCING COUNTRIES Million tons

35 CHINA S SHARE OF GLOBAL CHEMICAL FIBRE YARN PRODUCTION 9% [VA LU E [VA LU E 24 % [VA [VA LU LU E 62 E 69 % %

36 LEADING PRODUCERS OF CELLULOSIC FIBRE Million tons China Western Europe India Indonesia Thailand

37 Growth in global cotton consumption has been limited by competition with polyester, and by consumer s changing attitude and behavior towards less formal fashion styles. (Yoga Pants, leggings, Athleisure wear) Cotton promotion, innovation, application and research must continue in order to change consumers preferences and to improve the technical performance of cotton vis-à-vis polyester. High cotton prices benefit cotton growers. However, high cotton prices have a negative impact in cotton consumption. New concerns regarding plastics and microplastic pollution could have a positive impact on the demand for cotton.

38 Thank you Any Questions? International Cotton Advisory Committee