Cattle Situation and Outlook

Transcription

1 Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry, Livestock Economist Feb. 27, 2018 Outlook_ pptx

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3 WASDE U.S. Meat Production and Prices Change from Change from Estimate Change from Forecast Change from 2017 Production Billion Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Dollars/cwt Dollars/cwt Steers Hogs Cents/lb Cents/lb Broilers Turkey Feb. 8, 2018

4 Mountains of Meat M-S-03A 10/01/17 Data Source: USDA/NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center M-C-01 09/03/17

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6 -3.7 %

7 Thou. Head 70 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-S-34 01/11/18

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11 Percent 40 US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-30 11/01/17

12 Mil. Head 140 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-40 01/31/18

13 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS 2016 TO 2017 (1000 Head) DC to to to to US Total 1044 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS 2017 TO 2018 (1000 Head) 03/20/17 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS US Total /01/18

14 How much expansion is needed? Million Head Billion Pounds Cow Inventory and Beef Production Source: USDA compiled by LMIC Cow Inventory Beef Production

15 Average Net Return to Labor and Management Per Beef Cow N.D. Farm Business Mgmt., Excluding Red River Valley Average Projected High 20% Low 20%

16 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Fut

17 Why May Cattle Price Peak? M-P-25 11/06/17 C-S-18 11/03/17 M-S-09 10/23/17

18 I-N-16 02/07/18

19 U.S. Ranking in World Production Exports Beef 1 4,3,1 Pork 2 1 Chicken 1 2 Turkey 1 1 Eggs 2 2

20 Major U.S. Meat Export Customers BEEF PORK CHICKEN Japan Mexico Mexico Mexico Japan Canada Korea Canada Cuba Canada China Hong Kong Hong Kong Korea Taiwan China? Australia China Ø

21 Mil. Pounds 325 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-15 02/07/18

22 Pounds 920 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

23 Competing Meats H-P-09 02/05/18 P-P-01 02/02/18 S-P-05 12/29/17 Data Source: USDA AMS; Livestock Marketing Information Center

24 C-P-62 02/05/18 M-P-24 02/05/18 Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

25 MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Ave

26 Why? DEC Corn APR LV CAT OK WTR WHT

27 Mil. Head CALF CROP U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

28 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

29 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT 2018 Futures Ave

30 SF_LS796 Sioux Falls, SD Mon Feb 5, 2018 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Feb 3, 2018 Receipts: 11,842 Last Week 11,768 Last Year 13,401 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Fancy Fancy

31 SF_LS796 Sioux Falls, SD Mon Feb 5, 2018 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Feb 3, 2018 Receipts: 11,842 Last Week 11,768 Last Year 13,401 Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Replacement Replacement Replacement Replacement

32 Premiums likely (but not consistent) for: Verified shots (ND VIP) Natural (no antibiotics or implants) Source/age verified (China) Weaned Bovine Viral Diarrhea persistently infected (BVD-PI) tested negative Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) Replacement quality heifers * Check with your market before selling

33 CME Feeder Cattle Index /3/08 6/3/08 9/3/08 12/3/08 3/3/09 6/3/09 9/3/09 12/3/09 3/3/10 6/3/10 9/3/10 12/3/10 3/3/11 6/3/11 9/3/11 12/3/11 3/3/12 6/3/12 9/3/12 12/3/12 3/3/13 6/3/13 9/3/13 12/3/13 3/3/14 6/3/14 9/3/14 12/3/14 3/3/15 6/3/15 9/3/15 12/3/15 3/3/16 6/3/16 9/3/16 12/3/16 3/3/17 6/3/17 9/3/17 22% 10%? 17% 19% 0% 10% 7% 23% 11%

34 $ Per Cwt. 90 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES 85 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

35 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video and internet auctions CME futures CME options Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?

36 Risk Management? MAR FDR CAT

37 Fall Steer Calf LRP Results July 15 to Nov 15 (17 wk) Year Coverage Price Premium Actual Price LRP Payment LRP Profit

38 SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Nov 16, 2017 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc.-Napoleon, ND Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/16/2017 Receipts: 5297 Last Week: 6255 Year Ago: 5298 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Fancy Calves Calves Calves Calves Calves Calves

39 SF_LS766 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Nov 12, 2015 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Stockmans Livestock Exchange Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2015 Receipts: 4101 Last Week: 4762 Year Ago: 4553 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Calves Calves Calves

40 SF_LS766 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Nov 17, 2016 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Stockmans Livestock Exchange Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/17/2016 Receipts: 4879 Last Week: 4922 Year Ago: 3841 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Calves Calves Calves Calves

41 2018: Corn Prices and Beef Exports? Questions!