Alabama s Water- Agriculture Nexus Water Resource Management and Economics Conference October 23, 2014

Transcription

1 Alabama s Water- Agriculture Nexus Water Resource Management and Economics Conference October 23, 2014 by Sam Fowler, Director Auburn University Water Resources Center

2 Explaining the relationships between Alabama s water resources and agriculture is a real challenge

3 Alabama: The Aquatic State A strong case can be made that water is Alabama s greatest physical and economic asset. Many will say that the people of Alabama are its greatest asset. However, without water there would be no people, and humans like all other living things are largely water! Water = Life

4 Without water there would be no agriculture in Alabama

5 What Impact does agriculture have in Alabama?

6 Impacts of Alabama Ag

7 The big questions are: 1) how much water does Alabama s agriculture really use, 2) how much will it need in the future, and 3) where will it come from?

8 In many states most of the water is used for agriculture In most states west of the Mississippi River, agriculture is the largest user of surface and ground water resources. This is also true in many of our southeastern states (GA, MS, FL, AR, LA)

9 Comparing AL to US Al. Water Usage 2005 Water Use US Water Usage 2005 Water Use Power Com & Res AG Indust Power Com & Res AG Indust

10 Why does Alabama use less water for agriculture than other states? Because of the structure of Alabama s Agriculture. Because Alabama does not irrigate at the levels of many other states. Because Alabama s agriculture gets a lot of free water that is not reflected in the official withdrawal and usage data. Because Alabama s agriculture buys a lot from other states, rather than using our on water!!!

11 Structure of Alabama s Agriculture

12 Irrigation is the major use of water in most of the US and most of the world.

13 States where irrigation is significant

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15 Currently irrigation in Alabama is insignificant. Alabama = ~120K acres Georgia = ~ 1.3M acres* Mississippi = ~ 1.2M acres *Georgia predicts 1.7M by 2050.

16 Rainfall: Alabama s Free Water Resource! Alabama has the 2 nd highest overall annual rainfall amount of any of the continental United States. On average Alabama receives almost 55 inches of annual rainfall. That is almost 20 trillion gallons per year.

17 Statistically speaking Based on average annual rainfall Alabama should not need to irrigate. But, In reality it doesn t work that way. The important part about water for agriculture is having the right amount at the right time.

18 The impact of Water Alone Research at 5 AAES locations over 3 years ( ) shows the tremendous importance that water alone can have on corn yields when all other factors are the same. Corn yields averaged 50 bu/acre when water was limited but increased to 205 bu/acre when water was not limited (irrigated). Source:

19 Water and Yield is a Non-linear relationship

20 Applying the $ Numbers to the previous results The study at 5 locations in Alabama showed that by applying an average of 7.2 inches of irrigation water annually at the critical times the corn yields increased 4 fold. At current corn prices ($3.40/bu) that equates to a difference of $527/acre in gross revenues ($697 versus $170)

21 Alabama uses 150 million bushels of corn only produces 30 million bushels and imports 120 million bushels of corn. Alabama also imports ~ 60 million bushels of Soybeans annually. Nearly 90% of Nation s corn and soybean production is concentrated in upper Midwest

22 Combined Corn and Bean Impacts The combined economic impact of becoming self sufficient in both corn and soybean production could be $966 Million in direct benefits and over $2 Billion in indirect benefits to the rural economy, and yield 10K additional jobs.

23 Becoming self-sufficient in corn and soybean production is not possible.

24 Potential Impact of a Realistic Goal Alabama plants between 200K and 300K acres of corn annually. If we could irrigate an additional 100K acres irrigated, it could generate an additional $52.7M of direct revenue for our rural economy. When you apply the economic multiplier for the agricultural sector the impact would be $93.2M and an additional 1,000 jobs.

25 Virtual Water

26 Actual Water Use by Alabama s Poultry Sector (the visual tip of the iceberg) Drinking water = 3 billion gals annually Cooling = 6 billion gals annually Processing = 12 billion gallons Total = 21 billion gals annually That is equal to 64K acre/ft., or approximately the volume of water required to irrigate 110K 7 inches/year.

27 Virtual Water Footprints (the unseen portion of the iceberg) 1 lb Beef = 1,799 gals virtual water 1 lb Pork = 576 gals virtual water 1 gal Coffee = 880 gals virtual water 1 bu Corn = 6,048 gals virtual water 1 bu Soybeans = 12,960 gals virtual water 1 lb Chicken = 468 gals virtual water 1 egg = 53 gals virtual water

28 Water Footprint of Alabama s Poultry 5.8 billion lbs of chicken = 2.7 trillion gals water 2.6 billion eggs = 138 billion gals water The above numbers equate to 8.8 million acre ft. of water, or 4X times the amount of water storage in all of Alabama Power s Coosa & Tallapoosa reservoirs. Why is this not reflected in Alabama s Agricultural Water Use numbers?

29 And the answer is Much of the water footprint for Alabama s poultry industry comes from the production and processing of the corn and soybeans that are required to feed over 1 billion birds annually. Almost all of that feed is imported from out-of-state, so most of it is reflected in the irrigated agriculture numbers in the other states from which our corn and soybeans are imported. We are buying the water from other states in the form of corn and soybeans.

30 This leads to the obvious questions What happens to Alabama s poultry industry when the other states which have far less water than Alabama no longer have sufficient water to produce corn and soybeans to feed our chickens? Can Alabama move toward becoming more self-sufficient in producing the feed for 1 billion chickens, and if so where will that water come from?

31 How much water does Alabama s agriculture use now, and how much will it need in the future?

32 Total Agricultural Water Use by Watersheds 2005 and 2040

33 Total Agricultural Water use by Counties

34 Questions?