2014/ATCWG/013 Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) Activities in the Philippines

Transcription

1 2014/ATCWG/013 Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) Activities in the Philippines Purpose: Information Submitted by: Philippines 18 th Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group Meeting Beijing, China 16 September 2014

2 AMICAF ACTIVITIES IN THE PHILIPPINES by Engr. Roy Abaya and Dir. Silvino Tejada Department of Agriculture-Philippines APEC Agricultural Technical Committee Working Group Meeting Beijing, China, 16 September 2014 Introduction AMICAF is a comprehensive framework by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups. In the Philippines, the AMICAF framework is currently being implemented by the FAO in cooperation with the Philippine Department of Agriculture and partner agencies with funding from the Japanese government. The Philippine activities started in January 2012 and will end on December 2014 for a 3-yr implementation. 1

3 Step 1: Impacts of climate change on agriculture Partners: PAGASA, UP-NIGS, PhilRice, NEDA MOSAICC Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change IPCC GCM Low resolution projections Historical weather records Climate projections downscaling Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology, Economy) in one package Software plus training Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market or PAM (Provincial Agricultural Model) is used in addition to MOSAICC s climate downscaling, crop and hydrology modules Historical Yield records Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Crop growth Simulation Yield projections Downscaled Climate projections Provincial Agricultural Model (PAM) Provincial Agricultural Market Impact Hydrological Model Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical discharge records Soil and Land use data Dam data Step2 (Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis) Summary for Precipitation ( A1B, A2 scenarios; BCM2, CNCM3, ECHMA5 models) for AIB: 6-20%, A2: 3-14%, lowest in RR in eastern Philippines Except for some Region 1 and CARAGA (BCM2), all parts of the country will become wetter under A1B Region 1 will further become drier particularly in MAM and JJA season MAM and JJA will become particularly wetter under BCM2 and CNCM3 in most of Luzon and eastern Philippines 2

4 Summary for Temperature ( ) All parts of the country will experience increase in temperature under A1B and A2 especially in urban areas for both A1B and A2, range of increase: 0.3 C 0.5 C; highest in NCR greater warming under CNCM3 followed by BCM2 and MPEH5 PAGASA s Key Findings and Next Steps Greater rainfall will be experienced from 3-20% increase; Rainfall will increase the least in eastern Philippines; NCR and neighboring provinces will have higher increase in temperature by 2040 by as much as 0.5 C in March, April, May Way forward: -Downscaling under CMIP5 & RCPs -Analysis of extreme events including tropical cyclones Number of Dry Days* ( ) and Corresponding Station using MPEH5 RANK STATION 20C3M A1B A2 10 SCIENCE GARDEN PORT AREA (MCO) LAOAG CITY PUERTO PRINCESA SANGLEY POINT IBA CLSU CABANATUAN DAGUPAN CITY SAN JOSE *Dry days are events defined as 5 consecutive days with <1mm of daily rainfall with each occurrence counted as one event Number of Days with Extreme 24-hour Rainfall ( ) and Corresponding Station using MPEH5 STATION 20C3M A1B A2 VIGAN ITBAYAT CATARMAN VIRAC RADAR DAET BAGUIO INFANTA IBA CASIGURAN HINATUAN *Extreme daily rainfall are events defined as days with >100 mm of rainfall with each occurrence counted as one event 3

5 Step 1: Hydrology modeling using STREAM model Partner: UP-NIGS The goal is to determine whether discharge in rivers, the primary source of water for irrigation, will be affected by climate change Using two global climate models (A1B and A2), most basins show an increasing trend in annual discharge, but the increase is mainly during the wet season. Annual variability is increasing. Summer months will have a decrease in discharge, with definite decrease in future MAM discharge: Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Leyte, Zamboanga, Sultan Kudarat Step 1: Crop Modeling using WABAL model (Partner: PhilRice) For irrigated s1 rice crop model important variables are ETA 2, min. temp For rainfed rice crop model important variables are ETA in diff growth stages, rainfall, solar radiation Climate change yield signals under MPEH is statistically higher than CNCM3 at least for rainfed rice Climate change yield signals for A2 is not statistically significant with A1B, either under MPEH or CNCM3 Changes in climatology can result in lower yield in some provinces, but higher in others MPEH: Irrigated Rice S1(A2-20C3M) 4

6 Step 2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis (Partners: DLSU-CBMS and FNRI) Develops an analytical econometrics model with the best available national household datasets Choice of models heavily depends on data availability (variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced) Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability Step 2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis (Partners: DLSU-CBMS and FNRI) 55.33% of the households are permanently food secure 5.23% are temporarily food secure but likely to be food insecure in the future 8.20% are temporarily food insecure 31.24% are chronically food insecure These are the households which are currently food insecure and at the same time, likely to be food insecure still in the future. These are the most important target on choosing policy instruments/ interventions 5

7 Step 3 Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change Partners: DA RFU 5 (Bicol), DA RFU 13 (Caraga), PhilRice Agusan Identification, validation, fieldtesting, and evaluation of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development under the framework of climate-smart Farmer Field Schools (FFS) Field-testing sites are Camarines Sur & Surigao del Norte with drought, flooding and saline intrusion issues Step 3 Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change: Climate-smart Farmer Field School A total of 157 farmers (97-Buhi, 30-Canaman, 30-Baao) in Bicol participated in the climate-smart FFS organized by the project in Bicol that now includes seven (7) expansion municipalities in addition to the original 3 as GPO test sites In Caraga, FFS farmers numbered 58 farmers (20-Claver, 20- Gigaquit, 18-Bacuag) with GPO test sites in all Caraga provinces including Siargao The climate component of the CS- FFS is now incorporated by DA RFU 5 for corn and vegetable FFS targeted for the region Community hazard assessment Typhoon tracking by FFS participants Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day 6

8 Step 3 Testing and adoption of CC-ready rice in unfavorable rice environments We have completed the 4- season testing of climate change-ready rice lines for drought-, flood- and salineprone environments within CSFFS framework The DA National Rice Program has adopted this sub-component to determine the nation-wide performance of these CC-ready lines (63 test sites, WS 2014) The DA is positioning these climate-resilient lines for El Niňo mitigation starting 2014 DS Products developed under Step 3 Project brochure/ folder for dissemination 2014 calendar for farmers based on PalayCheck and good practice options; 2015 calendar is now being prepared with AMICAF results On-going printing of reference manual for LGUs in localization of climate services (with PAGASA and RWAN) Success stories of project s CC adaptation options in Bicol and Caraga (print and video formats) in the works 7

9 Step 4 Institutional analysis and awareness raising Partners: Climate Change Commission and NEDA National, regional and local institutional analysis workshops were conducted in 2013 and 2014 to assess institutional strengths and conceptualize/develop training modules for DRR/CC planners and policy makers and for LGUs in Caraga and Bicol, respectively Documentation of success stories of Step 3 with DA Bicol and Caraga is on-going; outputs will be in print and video format Nov Outreach Event is being conceptualized to raise awareness and promote the project outputs and approach For further inquiries: Dr. Tatsuji Koizumi FAO-AMICAF International Project Coordinator <Tatsuji.Koizumi@fao.org> 8