Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 16.4 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2017.

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1 Cattle ISSN: Released January 31, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). January 1 Cattle Inventory Up 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 94.4 million head, 1 percent above the 93.7 million head on January 1, All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.1 million head, were 1 percent above the 40.6 million head on January 1, Beef cows, at 31.7 million head, were up 2 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.40 million head, were up 1 percent from the. All heifers 500 pounds and over, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 20.2 million head, 1 percent above the 20.1 million head on January 1, Beef replacement heifers, at 6.13 million head, were down 4 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.78 million head, were up 1 percent from the. Other heifers, at 9.33 million head, were 4 percent above a year earlier. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 16.4 million head, down slightly from January 1, Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 2.25 million head, up slightly from January 1, Calves under 500 pounds, as of January 1, 2018, totaled 14.4 million head, up slightly from January 1, Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 1 million head on January 1, The inventory is up 7 percent from the January 1, 2017 total of 13.1 million head. Cattle on feed, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, accounted for 8 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2018, up 1 percent from the. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) is 26.1 million head, 2 percent below one year ago. Calf Crop Up 2 Percent The 2017 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 35.8 million head, up 2 percent from last year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2017 were estimated at 2 million head, up 2 percent from the first half of Calves born during the second half of 2017 were estimated at 9.81 million head, 27 percent of the total 2017 calf crop.

2 Revisions All inventory and calf crop estimates for January 1, 2017 and July 1, 2017 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, January 1, 2017 all cattle and calves increased by 0.1 percent and 2016 calf crop increased slightly. July 1, 2017 all cattle and calves decreased by 0.4 percent, all cows and heifers that have calved decreased by 0.7 percent, and 2017 calf crop decreased by 1.4 percent. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory estimates to the United States total. This report was approved on January 31, Secretary of Agriculture Designate Robert Johansson Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons 2 Cattle (January 2018)

3 Contents Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: January 1, 2017 and All Cattle and Calves Inventory United States: January Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2017 and Calf Crop States and United States: 2016 and All Cattle on Feed States and United States: January 1, 2017 and Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture 3-State Total: January 1, 2017 and Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: July 1, 2015 and Calf Crop and Total by Six Month Period United States: 2015, 2016, and Statistical Methodology Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates Information Contacts Cattle (January 2018) 3

4 Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 Class All cattle and calves... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 93, , All cows and heifers that have calved... Beef cows... Milk cows... 40, , ,34 41, ,72 9,3.6 All heifers 500 pounds and over... For beef cow replacement... Expected to calve 1... For milk cow replacement... Expected to calve 1... Other heifers... 20,13 6, , ,75 3, , , , ,77 4, , , Steers 500 pounds and over... Bulls 500 pounds and over... Calves under 500 pounds... 16, , , , , ,427.2 All cattle on feed... 13,06 14, Calf crop... 35, , Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year. All Cattle and Calves Inventory United States: January 1 Million head Cattle (January 2018)

5 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... All cattle and calves All cows and heifers that have calved (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 1, ,7 5,1 2, , , 1,3 1 1, ,7 5, ,8 1 1,6 1, , , , , Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland ,3 1, , , , , ,1 8 4, , , , , ,7 1, , , ,6 1, Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , , ,3 2,6 6, ,1 2,3 9 4,4 2,5 6, ,1 1, , ,2 1, , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 1,4 1, ,8 1, , ,3 1, , , ,8 1, ,.0 1,2 1, , , , South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 3,8 1,8 12, ,5 1,1 40 3,5 1,3 4, ,8 12, , ,1 39 3, ,3 97 1, , ,5 7 1,9 9 5, , United States... 93, , 40, , continued Cattle (January 2018) 5

6 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Beef cows that have calved Milk cows that have calved (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) , , Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland ,5 1, ,50 1, Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey ,05 1,48 1, ,16 1,49 1, New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina , , South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 1, , , , , ,27 88 United States... 31, ,72 9,34 9,3.6 --continued 6 Cattle (January 2018)

7 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... All heifers 500 pounds and over Beef cow replacement Milk cow replacement Other (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland , , Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , ,5 1.2 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming , , United States... 6, , ,75 4, , , continued Cattle (January 2018) 7

8 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Steers 500 pounds and over Bulls 500 pounds and over Calves under 500 pounds (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) , , Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland , 2, , , Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , , , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming , , , , United States... 16, , , , , , Cattle (January 2018)

9 Calf Crop States and United States: 2016 and 2017 State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) , , Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland , , , , Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , ,4 1, , , , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina , , South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 1, , ,4 6 1,8 8 4, , United States... 35, ,808.2 Cattle (January 2018) 9

10 All Cattle on Feed States and United States: January 1, 2017 and 2018 [Cattle and calves on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay, and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Cattle and calves on feed are included in the cattle inventory estimates by class] State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Maryland... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) ,1 2, , ,2 2, Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New York... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma , , Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming , , Other States United States... 13,06 1 Individual state estimates not available for states not shown, but are included in Other States. 14, Cattle (January 2018)

11 Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture 3-State Total: January 1, 2017 and 2018 States (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas... 1, , Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: July 1, 2015 and 2017 [July 2016 Cattle report suspended due to budgetary constraints] Class Cattle and calves (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent),200.0,200.0 Cows and heifers that have calved... Beef cows... Milk cows... 39, , , , , ,400.0 Heifers 500 pounds and over... For beef cow replacement... For milk cow replacement... Other heifers... 15, , , , , , , , Steers 500 pounds and over... Bulls 500 pounds and over... Calves under 500 pounds... 14,.0 1, , , , ,900.0 Calf crop... 34, ,808.2 Cattle on feed... 12,.0 12,800.0 Calf Crop and Total by Six Month Period United States: 2015, 2016, and 2017 Period January 1 - June July 1 - December Number total Number total Number total (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (percent) 24,6 9, ,5 9, , , Total... 34, , , Cattle (January 2018) 11

12 Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers were surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 36,300 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, internet, and face-to-face personal interviews and 71 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the are subject to revision when current estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for all cattle and calves inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 94.4 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed percent. The table on the following page shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 438,000 head, ranging from 70,000 to 796,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been above the latest estimate 3 times and below the latest estimate 7 times. This does not imply that the January 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. 12 Cattle (January 2018)

13 Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] Item All cattle and calves... Root mean square error (percent) percent confidence level (percent) Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest (1,000 head) 438 (1,000 head) 70 (1,000 head) 796 Below latest (number) Years 7 Above latest (number) 3 All cows and heifers that have calved Calf crop Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (202) Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) Heidi Gleich Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) Seth Riggins Hogs and Pigs... (202) Vacant Sheep and Goats... (202) Cattle (January 2018) 13

14 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: Both national and state specific reports are available via a free subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit and click on National or State in upper right corner above search box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) , 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at or at any USDA office, or call (866) to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C , by fax (202) or at program.intake@usda.gov.

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