Cattle & Beef Outlook

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Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has

1 Cattle & Beef Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated Demand Mixed signals Role of export demand has become clear Domestic Retail vs. Food Service?

Avg. 2011 15 2016 2017 Beef Basis, Salina

2 Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Beef Basis, Salina KS Projections (as of 10/5): Oct. 11: $164 Nov. 15: $166?????? Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-54 10/02/17

3 $ Per Cwt AVERAGE CALF PRICES lb Steer Calves, Southern Plains Annual Average 4th Quarter Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC $ Per Cwt Beef Basis, Salina KS Projections (as of 8/31): MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Sept. 13: $ Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Oct. 11: $154 Nov. 15: $156 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg ?????? Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-54 08/28/17

4 $ Per Cow COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head Estimated Cow Calf Returns Cattle Inventory Jan 1 80 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-67 10/03/17 $ Per Cow 500 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual $ $ $34.25 $ Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC C-P-66 10/03/17

5 Mil. Head HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-38 08/13/17 Mil. Head 6.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S Data Source: USDA NASS; 2013 Was Unreported, LMIC Made Estimates C-N-37 08/13/17

6 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual y = x R² = YEAR COSTS B EVEN 550# $/CWT 1990 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ f $ $ Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC 08/28/17 Mil. Head 140 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-40 08/13/17

7 Mil. Head 140 JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual = 93.6 Million Head +1.8 Percent Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-01 08/13/17 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual 2017 = 31.2 Million Head +3.5 Percent Beef Dairy 2017 = 9.3 Million Head +0.4 Percent Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-02 08/13/17

8 Percent 40 US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-30 10/02/17 Percent WESTERN REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-31 10/02/17

9 Percent GREAT PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-32 10/02/17 Percent 60 SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-33 10/02/17

10 Percent 35 CORNBELT REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-34 10/02/17 Percent NORTHEAST REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-35 10/02/17

2011 15 2016 2017 Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-36 10/02/17 VOG

11 Percent 40 SOUTHEAST REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-36 10/02/17 VOG Projections: Production Chart: Cattle Fax All Slides.pdf

12 Economic Outlook Overview: Post Weaning Forward Looking Margin Perspective Dodge City, KS 10/6/17 situation: PRE CONDITIONING Buy 550 lb steer on 10/11/17 ($163) Sell 600 lb steer on 11/15/17 ($159) {1.4 ADG} VOG: $120/cwt (w/o any extra preconditioned premium) [$60/hd] Reflects CME NOV > OCT Economic Outlook Overview: Post Weaning Forward Looking Margin Perspective Dodge City, KS 10/6/17 situation: BACKGROUNDING Buy 550 lb steer on 10/11/17 ($163) Sell 800 lb steer on 1/31/18 ($143) {2.21 ADG} VOG: $98/cwt If COG=$70/cwt then Exp Profit = $70/hd

13 Economic Outlook Overview: Post Weaning Forward Looking Margin Perspective Dodge City, KS 10/6/17 situation: DRYLOT WINTERING Buy 550 lb steer on 10/11/17 ($163) Sell 750 lb steer on 3/21/18 ($146) {1.23 ADG} VOG: $100/cwt If COG=$60/cwt then Exp Profit = $80/hd Percent Economic Outlook Overview: Stockers Historical Margin Perspective BUY/SELL MARGINS S. Plains, Mar lb. Steer as % of Nov lb. Steer Average Average Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-60 08/13/17

14 $ Per Cwt. 190 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-49 10/02/17 Economic Outlook Overview: Feedlots 2017 Jan July very strong BUT Q4 declined fast

120 110 100 90 $108.01 $102.65 $97.59 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg.

Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 9/11/17 ) (http://www.

15 $ Per Cwt. 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ $ $97.59 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 10/02/17 Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 9/11/17 ) ( July 17 : +$147.67/steer Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability

16 Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 9/11/17 ) ( Extremes in 18 months Dec. 15 : $523 May 17 : +$384 AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 750 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Custom Feeding Total Costs $ Per Head Data Source: USDA AMS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC C-P-10 09/29/17

17 Quarterly Forecasts (LMIC: 10/5/17) % Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg. Year Comm'l from Dressed from Beef from Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago 2017 I 7, , II 8, , III 8, , IV 8, , Year 32, , I 8, , II 8, , III 8, , IV 8, , Year 33, , I 8, , II 8, , III 8, , IV 8, , Year 33, , Quarterly Forecasts (LMIC: 10/5/17) Live Sltr. % Chg. Feeder Steer Price Year Steer Price from Southern Plains Quarter 5-Mkt Avg Year Ago 7-800# 5-600# 2017 I II III IV Year I II III IV Year I II III IV Year

18 Meat Supplies & Trade Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC M-S-01 10/01/17

19 Bil. Pounds 7.5 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC M-S-06 10/01/17 Mil. Pounds COMMERCIAL LAMB AND MUTTON PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC M-S-07 10/01/17

20 Bil. Pounds 11.5 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC M-S-30 10/01/17 Bil. Pounds 1.70 RTC TURKEY PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC 10/01/17

21 Bil. Pounds TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN MAR APR JUN JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Forecasts by LMIC M-S-31 10/01/17 Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-06 10/01/17

22 Percent 12 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-07 10/01/17 Bil. Pounds 4.0 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-12 10/01/17

23 Percent US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual Imported less (as % of prod.) in 2016 than Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-08 10/01/17 Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-28 10/01/17

24 Percent 14 US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled by LMIC I-N-11 10/01/17 USDA Long Term projections Feb release ( Table 17. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight Item Pounds Beef Pork Total red meat Broilers Total poultry Red meat & poultry Yr-O-Yr % Ch. 1.5% -0.8% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Projections INCLUDE growing export forecasts 48

25 USDA Long Term projections Feb release ( Table 18. Beef long-term projections Item Units Commercial production Mil. lbs. 25,055 26,160 27,143 26,853 26,844 27,742 Change from previous year Percent Total production Mil. lbs. 25,119 26,224 27,207 26,917 26,908 27,806 Imports Mil. lbs. 3,011 2,680 2,748 2,820 2,854 2,994 Total supply Mil. lbs. 28,813 29,604 30,555 30,297 30,322 31,360 Exports Mil. lbs. 2,459 2,630 2,747 2,639 2,621 2,857 Change from previous year 7.0% 4.4% -3.9% -0.7% 0.4% Total consumption Mil. lbs. 25,654 26,374 27,248 27,098 27,141 27,943 Per capita, retail weight Pounds Prices: Beef cattle, farm $/cwt Calves, farm $/cwt Steers, 5-area $/cwt Feeder steers, Oklahoma City $/cwt Cattle inventory 1,000 head 91,988 93,300 93,700 94,200 94,600 95,450 Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 30,331 30,944 30,616 31,121 31,328 31, USDA Long Term projections Feb release ( Table 36. Beef trade long-term projections Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight Exporters Australia 1,385 1,325 1,384 1,419 1,439 1,572 New Zealand India 1,850 1,925 2,017 2,077 2,155 2,497 European Union Argentina Brazil 1,850 1,950 2,019 2,144 2,204 2,646 Other Latin America Canada United States 1,115 1,193 1,246 1,197 1,189 1,296 7% 4% -4% -1% 0% Major exporters 9,083 9,278 9,287 9,534 9,779 10,947 2% 0% 3% 3% 2% 50

26 USDA Long Term projections Feb release ( Table 19. Pork long-term projections Item Units Commercial production Mil. lbs. 24,946 25,800 25,653 26,009 26,447 28,443 Change from previous year Percent Total production Mil. lbs. 24,961 25,816 25,669 26,025 26,463 28,459 Total supply Mil. lbs. 26,657 27,536 27,304 27,700 28,156 30,277 Exports Mil. lbs. 5,179 5,440 5,445 5,566 5,778 6,458 Total consumption Mil. lbs. 20,853 21,461 21,224 21,499 21,738 23,129 Per capita, retail weight Pounds Change from previous year Percent Prices: National base, live equivalent $/cwt Feed price ratio: Hog-corn Ratio Hog inventory, December 1, previous year 1,000 head 68,919 69,925 69,900 70,429 71,080 74, USDA Long Term projections Feb release ( Table 20. Young chicken long-term projections Item Units Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 40,725 41,550 41,567 42,053 42,643 44,796 Change from previous year Percent Production Mil. lbs. 40,289 41,105 41,123 41,603 42,187 44,317 Change from previous year Percent Exports Mil. lbs. 6,666 6,925 7,402 7,530 7,678 8,066 Consumption Mil. lbs. 33,823 34,357 33,854 34,207 34,644 36,392 Per capita, retail weight Pounds Change from previous year Percent Prices: Broilers, National composite Cents/lb Feed price ratio: Broiler-feed 1/ Ratio

Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65A 03/25/16 $ Per Pound 5.60 5.10 4.60 4.10 3.60 3.

27 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65A 03/25/16 $ Per Pound BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated All Fresh Retail Price : Demand 3.6% (Yr o Yr) Per Capita Cons = +2.6% Real All Fresh Beef $ = 6.2% Pounds Per Capita Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA ERS, Compiled by LMIC C-P-65A 03/09/17

Q1.2017: 3.5% vs. Q1.2016 Q2.2017: 3.7% vs. Q2.2016 Q2.2017: Per Capita Consumption = +0.6% (Year over Year) Real All Fresh Beef Prices = 2.4% ($5.67/lb nominal price) IF Real All Fresh Beef Prices 0.

28 Q1.2017: 3.5% vs. Q Q2.2017: 3.7% vs. Q Q2.2017: Per Capita Consumption = +0.6% (Year over Year) Real All Fresh Beef Prices = 2.4% ($5.67/lb nominal price) IF Real All Fresh Beef Prices 0.7% = 0% Demand Change meat/meat demand 55 Updated Retail Beef Demand Indices Cattlemen s Beef Board Sept. 18,

29 Demand up 4 of 6 months to start 2017 (June 17 : 113)

31 Assessing Beef Demand Determinants Glynn T. Tonsor, Ted C. Schroeder, and Jayson L. Lusk Interim Research Project Update Cattlemen s Beef Board July 12, 2017 Presentation at 2017 Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting Denver, CO Wrap Up Broad Profitability Outlook Cow calf: Converging toward Long Term Levels 2017 Better than Expected Stocker: $ at stake has moderated Margins vary widely across situations but opportunity exist Feedlot: Early 2017 offered notable equity recovery Aug forward present challenges 62

More information available at: This presentation will be available in PDF format at: http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp Glynn T.

32 More information available at: This presentation will be available in PDF format at: Glynn T. Tonsor Professor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University 63 Utilize a Wealth of Information Available at AgManager.info

Receive Weekly Email Updates for AgManager.Info: http://www.agmanager.

1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.

33 Receive Weekly Updates for AgManager.Info: contact agmanagerinfo Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-M-11 09/22/17

34 Percent 19 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS As a Percent of Cattle on Feed, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-M-23 09/22/17 Percent 40 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS As a Percent of Cattle on Feed > 90 Days, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-M-24 09/22/17

35 Thou. Head 95 DAILY AVERAGE FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-M-25 09/22/17 Mil. Head 2.5 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08 09/22/17

36 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING LESS THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Mil. Head JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08A 09/22/17 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Mil. Head JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08B 09/22/17

37 Mil. Head NET FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-N-09 09/22/17 Mil. Head 11.4 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-10 09/22/17

38 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED OVER 90 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-N-11 09/22/17 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-N-12 09/22/17

39 Mil. Head 2.4 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 90 DAYS MINUS OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-N-13 09/22/17 Percent 140 NET FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS As a Percent of Marketings, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-N-16 09/22/17

40 Thou. Head 105 OTHER DISAPPEARANCE US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2011/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-19 09/22/17 $ Per Cwt BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-62 10/02/17

$ Per Cwt. 35 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value 600 900 Lbs., Weekly 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg.

41 $ Per Cwt. 35 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled by LMIC C-P-68 10/02/17 Seaboard Triumph Foods MARKETING Why Sept. 5 will be an unprecedented day for U.S. pork industry The harvest capacity will grow more in one day than it has in any single year. Steve Meyer Sep 04, sept 5 will be unprecedented day us pork industry

WHAT DO YOU SEE??? http://www.nationalhogfarmer.

42 WHAT DO YOU SEE??? sept 5 will be unprecedented day us pork industry

Beef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights

2018 Extension Outlook Conference August 13, 2018 Kansas City, MO Beef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights Glynn T. Tonsor Professor, Dept. of Ag. Economics, Kansas State University Email: gtonsor@ksu.edu