Building Bridges Among African Agricultural Policy Research Institutes

Transcription

1 Building Bridges Among African Agricultural Policy Research Institutes Challenges and Opportunities T. S. Jayne, Milu Muyanga and Felix Kwame Yeboah Public Address, Center for Agriculture and Rural Development, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Bunda Campus, Malawi 25 July, 2017

2 Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for African agricultural policy research institutes 3. ReNAPRI 4. Observations on possible way forward

3 Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. RENAPRI 4. Observations on the way forward

4 Five inter-related trends 4

5 Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth 5

6 Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth Rapid growth in food demand 6

7 Five inter-related trends Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 7

8 Five inter-related trends Rise of investor farmers / changing farm sizes Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 8

9 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm sizes Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 9

10 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 10

11 Africa s rapid population growth 12 Billions of people Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world

12 Sub-Saharan Africa: only region of world where rural population continues to rise past Total Rural Population (millions) China India 2015 Sub-Saharan Africa Other South Asia South-East Asia Source: UN

13 Population of Malawi 13

14 Share of labor force by age: 64% of Malawi s labor force is years in

15 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 15

16 SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 40 billion USD ( ) (intra SSA trade from 1 to 10 billion USD) USD Billions SSA Imports from non-ssa SSA's imports from SSA

17 Source: authors derivation from TradeMap 2017 and FAOSTAT,

18 Net cereal exports, Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-saharan Africa Year MAIZE WHEAT RICE TOTAL Source: FAOSTAT, 2016

19 Net cereal exports, East Africa Region East Africa Year Maize Wheat Rice Total NX Source: FAOSTAT, 2016

20 Relationship between % of rural population on degrading agricultural land and pop density Roughly 28% of rural population in SSA live on degrading agricultural land. 43 million additional people living on DAL between

21 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 21

22 Employment trends

23 Changes in the share of total jobs in farming, non-farm and off-farm agrifood systems, among the working age population (15 64 years) Farming 80.0 % of total FTE jobs Ghana ( ) Nigeria ( ) Rwanda ( ) Tanzania ( ) Uganda ( ) Zambia ( ) Base year End year Non-farm outside Agrifood system 80.0 % of total FTE jobs Ghana ( ) Nigeria ( ) Rwanda ( ) Tanzania ( ) Uganda ( ) Zambia ( ) Base year End year Off-farm within Agrifood System 80.0 % of total FTE jobs Ghana ( ) Nigeria ( ) Rwanda ( ) Base year Tanzania ( ) End year Uganda ( ) Zambia ( ) 23

24 Mean age of individuals engaged in farming, Malawi 24

25 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 25

26 Changes in farm structure in Tanzania ( ), National Panel Surveys Number of farms (% of total) % growth in number of farms between initial and latest year % of total operated land on farms between ha Farm size ha 5,454,961 (92.8) 6,151,035 (91.4) ha 300,511 (5.1) 406,947 (6.0) ha 77,668 (1.3) 109,960 (1.6) ha 45,700 (0.7) 64,588 (0.9) Total 5,878,840 (100%) 6,732,530 (100%) Share of farmland on farms ha from 38% to 44% in 4 years

27 Changes in farm structure in Ghana ( ) Ghana Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area ha 1,458,540 1,582, ha 578, , ha 116, , ha 38, , ha 18,980 37, >100 ha -- 1, Total 2,211,900 3,057, % Source: Ghana GLSS Surveys, 1992, 2013, Jayne et al., 2016, using data from Ghana GLSS Surveys I and IV.

28 Changes in farm structure in Zambia ( ) Farm size category Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area ha 638, , ha 159, , ha 20, , ha 2,352 53, % ha -- 13,839 na Total 820,341 1,399, Source: Zambia MAL Crop Forecast Surveys, 2001 and 2012

29 Characteristics of emergent farmers

30 Rise of the medium-scale farmers

31 Rise of the medium-scale farmers

32 Rise of the medium-scale farmers

33 Type 1: Urban-based investor farmer Mode of entry to medium-scale farming status: acquire farm using non-farm income Zambia Kenya (n=164) (n=180) % of cases % men Year of birth Years of education of head Have held a job other than farmer (%) Formerly /currently employed by the public sector (%) Current landholding size (ha) % of land currently under cultivation Decade when land was acquired 1969 or earlier or later Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015

34 % of National Landholdings held by Urban Households 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% / /2014 Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various years between

35 % of National Landholdings held by Urban Households 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% / Source: 2013/2014 DHS Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia

36 GINI coefficients in farm landholding Period Movement in Gini coefficient: Ghana (cult. area) 1992 à à 0.70 Kenya (cult. area) 1994 à à 0.55 Tanzania (landholdings) 2008 à à 0.69 Zambia (landholding) 2001 à à 0.49 Source: Jayne et al (JIA) 36

37 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 37

38 Output and factor price indices, northern Tanzania Price index (2008/9=100) Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) /9 2010/ /13 38

39 Output and factor price indices, western Tanzania 300 Adjusted price (2008/9=100) Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) /9 2010/ /13 39

40 Output and factor price indices, rural Malawi, Price index (2004=100) Rental rate (MWK/ha) Agricultural wage (MWK/day) MWK/kg urea MWK/kg maize Sources: IHS for land and wages; FEWSNET for urea and maize

41 Five inter-related trends Rising land scarcity Rise of investor farmers / changing farm and market structure Rapid population growth Labor force exit from farming Rapid growth in food demand 41

42 Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. RENAPRI 4. A proposal

43 Development ecosystem Shaped by: donor priorities power relations values of those involved 43

44 Changing landscape of development ecosystems 1980s models do not fit 2017 realities Greater local capacity Rising awareness that sustainable development requires development of local policy guidance African governments want to rely on their own analysts and think tanks Threat: new actors competing for donor resources Why are these parallel systems developing?

45 Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. ReNAPRI 4. Observations on way forward

46 ReNAPRI 9 agricultural policy research institutes in east/southern Africa Vision: to become the regional think tank of AU and AfDB Rotating secretariat Current chair: Director of IAPRI

47 Benefits to CARD from supporting ReNAPRI Symbiotic relationship Sharing of data, knowledge Research collaboration More competitive for regional initiatives Funding to ReNAPRI can help leverage CARD preeminence nationally

48 Format 1. Five megatrends affecting agri-food systems in the region 2. Challenges and opportunities for national agricultural policy research institutes in Africa 3. ReNAPRI 4. Observations on way forward

49 What s needed Institutions, like organisms, must adapt to changing environment or face demise Ants, bees, termites Resolution among CARD and highest levels of LUANAR to support CARD protect the queen, produce more honey undertake SWOT / strategic planning exercise website development promote exposure to CARD reports IAPRI, Tegemeo study these examples Relationship between the institute and the university

50 Process matters! Partnership is necessary for institutes to develop How we partner influences the outcome Therefore, need to consider our principles for partnership

51 Partnership principles (AAP) 1. Shared vision - mutually benefit, mutual capacity building 2. Based on trust, mutual respect, transparency, empathy, and accountability between the partners. 3. Collaboration must be sustainable beyond initial grant cycle, with a view toward long-term collaboration 4. Founded on clarity of purpose, with clear contributions to society. 5. All partners engage from the beginning -- objectives, activities, resource mobilization and resource allocation plans are developed jointly. 6. a governance structure that reinforces accountability, a structured work plan and metrics

52 Bottom line conclusions Economic transformation in SSA will require: Enlightened policies à Evidence à Research Strengthen educational system Strengthen African public institutions, including agricultural policy institutes Process matters Governments hold the key!

53 Thank You 53

54 Alliance for African Partnership Convening May 10-12, 2016 Shared vision that emerged: 1. Encourage cross-disciplinary platforms for addressing today s global challenges 2. Innovate new models of engagement 3. Enhance the resources and capacities of African universities, institutions, and scholars, as well as MSU 4. The agenda of the AAP and partners needs to be Africa-focused and Africa-led

55 Alliance for African Partnership strategic framework

56 AAP - Illustrative activities in Advisory Board (5 from Africa, 2 from MSU) 2. Formation of a AAP Secretariat in Africa 3. Co-sponsoring events with African organizations: World Food Prize African Green Revolution Forum 3. Working closely with ACBF to support RENAPRI /17 Call for Proposals 69 proposals received, 15 accepted 3 involving LUANAR 1 involving ReNAPRI awardees showcased at AAP Launch, July 2017, Dar es Salaam

57 Conclusions 1. Performance of agriculture will continue to exert major influence on job growth and income growth in overall economy 2. Agricultural productivity growth will be the cornerstone of any comprehensive youth livelihoods strategy: Ag productivity growth influences pace of labor force exit out of farming Labor productivity in broader economy

58 Share of labor force in farming is declining most rapidly where agricultural productivity growth is highest Annual % change in share of labor force engaged in farming Nigeria Kenya Uganda Tanzania Ghana Mali Malawi Zambia Average annual TFP growth in agriculture(%) Trend line Rwanda Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2016

59 Non-farm labor productivity growth linked to lagged agricultural productivity growth Av. annual labor productivity growth in non-agriculture (%) Zambia Zambia1 Bostwana Nigeria1 Mauritius Nigeria Mauritius1 South Africa1 Ghana1 South Africa Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Kenya1 Senegal1 Senegal Bostwana1 Ethiopia1 Tanzania1 Tanzania Malawi Malawi Average annual agricultural total factor productivity growth (%) Trend line

60 Conclusions (cont.) 3. Important changes in the distribution of farm sizes Decline in share of farmland under 5 hectare farms Rise of medium-scale farms Rising inequality of farmland distribution Growing land scarcity driven by middle/high income urban people seeking to acquire land not just for farming speculation, housing/properties, farming Rise of new towns converting formerly remote land into valued property

61 Conclusions (cont.) 3. Ag sector policies must anticipate and respond to rising land prices, decline of inheritance, market as increasingly important mode of acquiring land Resources needed for youth to succeed in farming (access to land, finance) Distinguish between trying to keep youth in agriculture vs. giving youth viable choices