FAPRI 2010 U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 FAPRI 2010 U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK January 2010 FAPRI Staff Report 10-FSR 1 ISSN Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Iowa State University University of Missouri-Columbia Ames, Iowa U.S.A.

2 Iowa State University Miguel Carriquiry Fengxia Dong Xiaodong Du Amani Elobeid Jacinto Fabiosa Chad Hart Dermot J. Hayes Karen Kovarik Kranti Mulik Eric Wailes (University of Arkansas) Ed Chavez (University of Arkansas) Marcelo Moreira (Institute for International Trade Negotiations, Brazil) University of Missouri-Columbia Julian Binfield D. Scott Brown Scott Gerlt Daniel Madison Seth Meyer William H. Meyers Wyatt Thompson Patrick Westhoff Lori Wilcox Abner W. Womack Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia, Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Veteran. Inquiries can be directed to the Director of Equal Opportunity and Diversity, 3680 Beardshear Hall,

3 Contents Figures List... iv Tables List... vi Abbreviations and Acronyms...xv Marketing Year Definitions...xvi Executive Summary... 1 Overview of the 2010 U.S. and World Outlook... 3 Charts and Price Projections...15 Baseline Assumptions...51 World Macroeconomic Assumptions...52 U.S. Program Provisions...58 World Agricultural Policy Assumptions...60 U.S. Crops...71 U.S. Wheat...72 U.S. Rice...74 U.S. Corn...78 U.S. Ethanol and Biofuel Policy Provisions...80 U.S. Corn Products...82 U.S. Corn Processing...84 U.S. Sorghum...86 U.S. Barley...88 U.S. Oats...90 U.S. Hay...92 U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products...94 U.S. Biodiesel...98 U.S. Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products U.S. Canola Seed and Canola Seed Products U.S. Peanuts and Peanut Products U.S. Upland Cotton and Cottonseed Products U.S. Sugar U.S. Livestock and Dairy U.S. Beef U.S. Pork U.S. Poultry U.S. Dairy U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply U.S. Dairy Products U.S. Aggregate Measures U.S. Land Use U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures U.S. Government Costs...140

4 iv U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings U.S. Farm Production Expenses U.S. Prices Paid by Farmers U.S. Net Farm Income U.S. Crop Insurance World Wheat World Rice World Coarse Grains World Oilseeds and Products World Soybeans and Soybean Products World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products World Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products World Peanuts and Peanut Products World Cotton World Sugar World Biofuels World Ethanol World Biodiesel World Meat World Beef and Veal World Pork World Poultry World Dairy Products World Butter and Cheese World Milk Powder Figures Average Annual GDP Growth, Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates...17 U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area...17 U.S. Crop Planted Area...18 U.S. Crop Exports...18

5 v U.S. Crop Prices...19 U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance...19 U.S. Biofuel Production...20 U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices...20 U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices...21 U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices...21 U.S. Livestock Production...22 U.S. Meat Net Exports...22 U.S. Milk Production...23 U.S. Milk Prices...23 U.S. Land Use...24 Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year...24 U.S. Farm Income...25 U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food...25 World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...26 World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share...26 World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...27 World Rice Net Exports...27 World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...28 World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...28 World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share...29 World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices...29 World Soybean Area Harvested and Price...30 World Soybean Net Trade...30 World Soybean Crush...31 World Soybean Meal Net Trade...31 World Soybean Oil Net Trade...32 Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries...32 World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price...33 World Rapeseed Net Trade...33 World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade...34 World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade...34 World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price...35 World Sunflower Net Trade...35 World Sunflower Meal Net Trade...36 World Sunflower Oil Net Trade...36 World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price...37

6 vi World Peanut Area Harvested and Price...37 World Cotton Consumption...38 World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...38 Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price...39 Major Sugar Net Importers...39 World Ethanol Price and Net Trade...40 World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade...40 World Meat Production and Trade...41 Per Capita Meat Consumption...41 Major Beef Importing Countries...42 Beef Export Market Share...42 Major Pork Importing Countries...43 Pork Export Market Share...43 Major Broiler Importing Countries...44 Broiler Export Market Share...44 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries...45 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries...45 NFD Trade for Selected Countries...46 WMP Trade for Selected Countries...46 Tables Commodity Price Projections...47 Real GDP Growth Projections...53 GDP Deflator Growth Projections...54 Exchange Rate Growth Projections...55 Population Growth Projections...56 U.S. Program Provisions...59 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops...61 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Biofuels...65 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products...66 Other Agricultural Policy Assumptions...70 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization...73 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization...75 U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization...76 U.S. Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization...77 U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization...79 U.S. Ethanol Supply and Utilization...81 U.S. Biofuel Policy Provisions...81 U.S. Corn Products Supply and Utilization...83

7 vii U.S. Corn Processing...85 U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization...87 U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization...89 U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization...91 U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization...93 U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization...95 U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization...96 U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization...97 U.S. Biodiesel Sector...99 U.S. Vegetable Oil Consumption...99 U.S. Sunflower Seed Supply and Utilization U.S. Sunflower Meal Supply and Utilization U.S. Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization U.S. Canola Seed Supply and Utilization U.S. Canola Meal Supply and Utilization U.S. Canola Oil Supply and Utilization U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization U.S. Peanut Meal Supply and Utilization U.S. Peanut Oil Supply and Utilization U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization U.S. Sugar Crop Production U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization U.S. Dairy Cows by State U.S. Milk Production by State U.S. All-Milk Prices by State U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization U.S. Land Use for Major Crops U.S. Consumer Price Indexes for Food U.S. Per Capita Consumer Expenditures for Food U.S. Net Government Outlays U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming U.S. Farm Production Expenses U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change) U.S. Farm Income Statistics U.S. Crop Insurance...151

8 viii Wheat Trade World Wheat Supply and Utilization U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization Other CIS Wheat Supply and Utilization Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization South Korean Wheat Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Wheat Supply and Utilization Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization Per Capita Wheat Consumption of Selected Countries Rice Trade World Rice Supply and Utilization U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization Australian Rice Supply and Utilization Bangladeshi Rice Supply and Utilization Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization Cambodian Rice Supply and Utilization Cameroonian Rice Supply and Utilization Canadian Rice Supply and Utilization Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization Cote d Ivoire Rice Supply and Utilization Egyptian Rice Supply and Utilization European Union Rice Supply and Utilization Ghanaian Rice Supply and Utilization Guinean Rice Supply and Utilization...175

9 ix Chinese - Hong Kong Rice Supply and Utilization Indian Rice Supply and Utilization Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization Iranian Rice Supply and Utilization Iraqi Rice Supply and Utilization Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization Kenyan Rice Supply and Utilization Malaysian Rice Supply and Utilization Malian Rice and Supply and Utilization Mexican Rice Supply and Utilization Mozambican Rice Supply and Utilization Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization Nigerian Rice Supply and Utilization Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization Senegalese Rice and Supply and Utilization Sierra Leonean Rice and Supply and Utilization South African Rice Supply and Utilization South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization Tanzanian Rice Supply and Utilization Thai Rice Supply and Utilization Turkish Rice Supply and Utilization Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization Per Capita Rice Consumption of Selected Countries Corn Trade Barley Trade Sorghum Trade World Corn Supply and Utilization World Barley Supply and Utilization World Sorghum Supply and Utilization U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...202

10 x Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other CIS Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries Soybean Trade Soybean Meal Trade Soybean Oil Trade World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Other CIS Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Paraguyan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization Rapeseed Trade Rapeseed Meal Trade Rapeseed Oil Trade World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization U.S. Canola Sector Supply and Utilization...246

11 xi Australian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Other CIS Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization Sunflower Seed Trade Sunflower Meal Trade Sunflower Oil Trade World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization U.S. Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Argentine Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Chinese Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization European Union-25 Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Other CIS Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization Palm Sector Trade World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Chinese Palm Sector Supply and Utilization European Union Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Indian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Indonesian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Malaysian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization Peanut Sector Trade World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization U.S. Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Argentine Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Chinese Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization European Union Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Indian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Canadian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Mexican Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization Per Capita Vegetable Oil Consumption of Selected Countries Cotton Trade World Cotton Supply and Utilization U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization African Cotton Supply and Utilization...292

12 xii Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization Indonesian Cotton Supply and Utilization Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization Kazakhstan Cotton Supply and Utilization Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization Other European Cotton Supply and Utilization Other CIS Cotton Supply and Utilization Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization Uzbek Cotton Supply and Utilization Sugar Trade World Sugar Supply and Utilization U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization Guatemalan Sugar Supply and Utilization Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization...315

13 xiii Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization Russian and Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization South African Sugar Supply and Utilization South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization Per Capita Sugar Consumption of Selected Countries Ethanol Trade Biodiesel Trade U.S. Biofuels Production and Consumption Argentine Biofuels Production and Consumption Brazilian Biofuels Production and Consumption Canadian Biofuels Production and Consumption Chinese Biofuels Production and Consumption European Union Biofuels Production and Consumption Indian Biofuels Production and Consumption Indonesian Biofuels Production and Consumption Japanese Biofuels Production and Consumption South Korean Biofuels Production and Consumption Malaysian Biofuels Production and Consumption Rest-of-World Biofuels Production and Consumption Beef and Veal Trade Pork Trade Broiler Meat Trade U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization Australian Meat Supply and Utilization Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization Chinese - Mainland Meat Supply and Utilization Chinese - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization Egyptian Meat Supply and Utilization European Union Meat Supply and Utilization Indian Meat Supply and Utilization Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization Other CIS Meat Supply and Utilization Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization Paraguayan Meat Supply and Utilization Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization...353

14 xiv Russian Meat Supply and Utilization Saudi Arabian Meat Supply and Utilization South African Meat Supply and Utilization South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization Thai Meat Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization Vietnamese Meat Supply and Utilization Rest-of-World Meat Supply and Utilization Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries Butter Trade Cheese Trade Nonfat Dry Milk Trade Whole Milk Powder Trade U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization Algerian Dairy Supply and Utilization Argentine Dairy Supply and Utilization Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization Brazilian Dairy Supply and Utilization Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization Chinese Dairy Supply and Utilization Colombian Dairy Supply and Utilization Egyptian Dairy Supply and Utilization European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization Indian Dairy Supply and Utilization Indonesian Dairy Supply and Utilization Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization Malaysian Dairy Supply and Utilization Mexican Dairy Supply and Utilization New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization Peruvian Dairy Supply and Utilization Philippine Dairy Supply and Utilization Russian Dairy Supply and Utilization Saudi Arabian Dairy Supply and Utilization South Korean Dairy Supply and Utilization Swiss Dairy Supply and Utilization Thai Dairy Supply and Utilization Ukrainian Dairy Supply and Utilization Uruguayan Dairy Supply and Utilization Venezuelan Diary Supply and Utilization Vietnamese Dairy Supply and Utilization Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries...399