The dynamics of global food and agribusiness

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1 Welcome to the world of Rabobank! The dynamics of global food and agribusiness Adrie Zwanenberg NUFFIELD Global Head F&A Research 20 February 2006

2 2 The world of Rabobank

3 Food & agribusiness: a global complex Farm inputs Farm production Trade and distribution Processing Wholesale and trade Food retail Food service Consumers Non food 3

4 Global F&A Numerous changes and challenges Food consumption Agricultural production Mature markets Emerging markets Food retail Foodservice Market power Agricultural policy New technology Expansion of the EU Co-operative issues Trade flows Etcetera 4

5 Evolution of food demand Food Income Diet food, Ready to eat Western Europe Japan North America Meat, dairy, oils, sugar Latin America India China Eastern Europe Growth markets Rice, bread, beans Africa (Sub- Sahara) Surviving More staples Variety Quality High tech Consumption stage 5

6 Non-traditional dairy regions drive growth Market growth expectations ( ) Total dairy market volume Total dairy market growth average annual change % Russia/Ukraine Latin America Sub Saharan Africa CEEC outside EU Oceania SE Asia Other Japan/Korea New EU10 China India/Pakistan 2 0 EU-15 China/HongKong Sub Saharan Africa S E Asia New EU-10 Middle East/N Africa Latin America Russia/the Ukraine India/Pakistan Japan/Korea North America North America EU15 6

7 driven by huge potential in per capita demand per capita consumption in milk equivalents Brazil India China 7

8 Agricultural production growing faster than population Index (1990=100) Crop production Livestock production Population Source: Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe U nite d Nations,2005.

9 Cost benefits and expanding domestic markets boost farm production Billion USD China US India Japan Indonesia France Italy Turkey Brazil Mexico Spain Russian Fed. Germany Sou rc e :World Bank,

10 F&A companies have to adapt their strategies 10

11 11

12 12

13 Latin America gains ground in F&A exports billion USD % 2.4% 3.6% 4.4% On top the CAGR % 8.2% 8.0% 5.7% 5.5% 2.7% 3.3% 3.1% 17.6% 3.4% 5.6% 0 1. U.S. 2. France 3. Netherlands 4. Germany 5. Belgium 6. Spain 7. Brazil 8. Italy 9. Canada 10. UK 11. China 12. Australia 13. Argentina 14. Denmark 15. Thailand Sou rc e :Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe U nite d Nations,

14 Boost to U.S. food & agri imports 60 billion USD % % On top the CAGR % 5.3% 3.3% % 4.6% 10.6% 3.8% % 5.9% 7.6% -0.7% 3.8% 10 0% 0 1. U.S. 2. Germany 3. Japan 4. UK 5. France 6. Italy 7. Netherlands 8. China 9. Belgium 10. Spain 11. Canada 12. Mexico 13. Russia 14. S. Korea 15. Hong Kong Sou rc e :Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe U nite d Nations,

15 Emerging countries show increasing F&A trade surplus Top 10 countries with largest trade surplus, with on top export and import (in 2003) billion USD Ex 20.9 Im 3.6 Ex 41.9 Im 25.1 Ex 13.9 Im 0.7 Ex 42.1 Im 30.7 Ex 15.0 Im 3.9 Ex 62.3 Im 53.5 Ex 10.4 Im 3.5 Ex 7.9 Im 1.5 Ex 11.4 Im 6.1 Ex 9.6 Im Brazil 2. Netherlands 3. Argentina 4. France 5. Australia 6. US Thailand 8. New Zealand 9. Denmark 10. Malaysia 15 Sou rc e :Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe U nite d Nations,2005.

16 Agricultural policy: towards more liberalised trade Production quotas Border measures Europe U.S. Japan Single Farm Payment System Farm Bill WTO Market access Export support Domestic support Hong Kong China Russia India Brazil 16

17 EU enlargement: New Members have immediate use of CAP market & price policy and a gradual phasing in of income support Ten New Member States entered the EU in May 2004 Rumania and Bulgaria will join the EU in 2007 EU-15 New Member States Turkey and Croatia have applied for EU membership 17

18 Black Sea Region Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Rumania, Bulgaria 18

19 The Black Sea Region is becoming a dominant force in the world wheat market Wheat* trade balance Black Sea Region M. tonnes / / / / / / / / / / /2006 Source: USDA, 2005 * Crops: wheat and barley Year 19

20 Outlook Emergence of markets in Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe also for research, production, processing and trade Emerging countries will benefit most from trade liberalisation but natural constraints are crucial Companies have to focus on what they really excel in be flexible and cooperate with others when needed New forms of cooperation, further internationalisation, and growth of industry in emerging markets offer new opportunities for financing global food and agri! 20

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