World Sorghum Grain Producers

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2 World Sorghum Grain Producers Million Metric Tons MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Grain Sorghum Exporters Million Metric Tons * Note Weaker Currencies! * MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

3 World Grain Sorghum Use Million Metric Tons China Mexico Nigeria U.S. Sudan India Ethiopia Argentina Other MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

4 Grain Sorghum Importers Million Metric Tons China Mexico Japan E.U. Chile Sudan S. Africa Pakistan Other MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14

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9 2017 Grain Sorghum Market Outlook Kansas Grain Sorghum School Wichita, Kansas February 1, 2017 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Current Grain Market Situation for U.S. & Kansas Farmers & Agribusinesses 1) Large grain supplies are limiting grain prices 2) Wheat $ s near Marketing Loan (Feedgrain $ s > Loan) 3) Grain farmers are focusing on marketing 2016 Crops 4) U.S. & World Crop production plans for 2017?? More soybeans are likely in 2017 in South America & U.S. Lower U.S. & World wheat acres with some World crop risk emerging 2017 U.S. Feedgrain acres to be same or lower? in Brazil & Argentina

10 Kansas Grain Sorghum Yields Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records Yield: Bu/Acre Kansas Yields North Central KS Yields Kansas Grain Sorghum Yields & Prices Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records Yield: Bu/Acre $ $2.36 $ $1.69 $ $ $ $3.33 $ $ $ $ $4.19 $ $3.13 $ $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) $Price /bushel Kansas Yields North Central KS Yields All Kansas $/bu North Central KS $/bu

11 Grain Sorghum Sales & Costs All Kansas Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records $ per Acre $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $271 $162 $335 $342 $255 $245 $233 $203 $202 $178 $50 $0 Variable (Direct) Costs Crop Sales Grain Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns All Kansas Non-irrigated Since 2001 Kansas Farm Mgmt. Assoc. Enterprise Records $ per Acre $400 $350 $300 $250 $309 $394 $332 $291 $269 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($50) Variable (Direct) Costs Net of All Costs but Labor-Mgmt Crop Sales All Income

12 NC Kansas Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns Non-irrigated Since 2001 KFMA Enterprise Records $ per Acre $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $304 $161 $318 $192 $295 $274 $236 $227 $248 $100 $50 $0 Varable - Direct Costs Crop Sales NC Kansas Sorghum Revenue, Costs & Returns Non-irrigated Since 2001 KFMA Enterprise Records $ per Acre $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($50) $317 $375 $393 $376 $291 Varable - Direct Costs Net of All Costs but Labor-Mgmt Crop Sales All Income

13 Grain Sorghum Markets

14 CME Corn Futures Monthly Chart: Nov December /1/2017 MAR 2017 $3.67 ¼ 2/1/2017 $3.67 $2.90 $3.18 $3.01

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16 Sorghum Cash & Futures $ s Concordia, KS Regional Elevators February 1, 2017? $Price / bu $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ /mo $3.68 $3.75 $3.82 $3.89 $3.95 $3.15 $2.83 $3.00 $2.68 $1.85 $1.85 $1.85 $0 Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan

17 Kansas Sorghum Seasonal Cash $ Index Monthly Prices: 1999/ /16 + Forecast MY 2016/17

18 U.S. Sorghum Acreage: EST U.S. Sorghum Yields: USDA 2017 USDA Forecast = 67.1

19 U.S. Sorghum Production & Supplies NY 2000/01 to Next Crop MY 2017/18 U.S. Sorghum Use & Ending Stocks MY 2004/05 to Next Crop MY 2017/18

20 U.S. Ethanol Production & Corn Use U.S. Feedgrain %S/U vs U.S. Sorghum Price

21 U.S. Sorghum $ vs U.S. Feedgrain % S/U MY 1973/74 through Current MY 2016/17 World Coarse Grain Supply, Use & Stocks

22 World Sorghum Supply, Use & Stocks World Coarse Grain Producers Million Metric Tons MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

23 Coarse Grain Exporters Million Metric Tons * Note Weaker Currencies! * MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Coarse Grain Importers 50 Million Metric Tons No. Africa - Mdl. East China Japan South Korea Southeast Asia EU-28 Mexico Saudi Arabia Other MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

24 U.S. Sorghum $ vs World Coarse Grain % S/U MY 1973/74 through New Crop MY 2016/17 U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) 1973 December 2016

25 U.S. Dollar Index vs World Grain $ s 1980 Dec U.S. Dollar Index US Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) Corn Wheat Soybeans $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 World Grain Prices (USD$ per bu) 0 $0 China Exchange Rates - Monthly China The Dominant Global Soybean Importer Chinese Yuan$ Weaker vs USD$ for , but Stronger Since 2014

26 China Corn & Soybean Supply-Demand Ests. Source:

27 China vs U.S. Corn Net Return Estimates Source: China Grain Output: Years Source:

28 China Grain Output vs Planted Area: Source: China Corn Temporary Reserve Price Source:

29 Brazil & Argentina Exchange Rates - Monthly Major Soybean & Corn Exporters Brazil Real Brazil Real Weaker vs USD$ Since mid-2015 Argentina Peso Argentina Peso$ Weaker Since 2003

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31 Canada & Mexico Exchange Rates - Monthly U.S. NAFTA Partners (Feedgrain & Wheat Trade Effects) Canada Dollar More NAFTA Currencies vs U.S. Dollar since 2013 i.e., weaker Mexico Peso

32 Euro & Australia Currency per U.S. Dollar EU: Wheat Exports/Soybean Imports Australia: Wheat/Sorghum Exports Europe EURO Australia Dollar USD$ weaker vs Euro$ & AUS$ for , but sideways - stronger since early 2015

33 Questions? Daniel O Brien Kansas State University KSUGrains on Twitter Daniel O Brien on Facebook