French beef industry chain at the turning point. Philippe Chotteau Head Economics Dpt Institut de l Elevage
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1 French beef industry chain at the turning point Philippe Chotteau Head Economics Dpt Institut de l Elevage 1
2 Plan French Beef balance & 2015 forecast Main beef systems profitability Impacts of the new CAP in France 2
3 The French beef cow herd has increased in 2014 TheFrenchbeefcowherdincreasedby0.8%in2014,to4.14millionhead. Farmers kept their cows to maximize their references for the new coupled premium The number of dairy cows was stable at 3.70 million head, after a 1.5% increase in % -0.8% -0.2% +0.8% -1.5% -0.5% +1.5% +0.0% 3
4 French beef production in 2014 Rebound of the beef production in 2014 after an historical low in 2013: more cull cows from the dairy herd since September. 4
5 Downward trend in French beef exports Due to the economiccrisisin SouthernEU and competitionfrompolandon Italian and Greek markets 2014 : -6% /2013; Jan-Feb 2015: -2%/2014 5
6 Less store cattle exports to Italy More to Spain and South + Estern Mediterranean countries 6
7 Less store cattle exports to Italy More females, less males 7
8 Less imports of beef in : -3% /2013. More national cowbeefon the market(lessneedto import) Jan-Feb 15: -6%/2015; Polish beef begins entering the French market 8
9 Consumptionslightlyrecoveredin 2014 but withmore and more mincedbeef 2014 : +0.2% /2013 at 1.58 million tonnes cwe Mincedbeef, in % of total beef household consumption in FR 9
10 Downward pressure on producer prices Strong demand for minced beef, and weak demand for steaks lead to big issues in valorizing carcasses from the beef herd, especially beef cows 10
11 Downward pressure on producer prices Difficulties on south European market put pressure on young bull prices U Young Bull pricein Italy, Germany & France 11
12 2015 Outlook for beef More BeefCows willbe culled in the automn 2015, when farmersknow theirscp references. Dairy Cows slaughtering still up / 2014 Less need to import. Beef exports incentive: less Young Bull production in Germany & in Ireland. Small rise of the consumption, thanks to more Cow beef available 000 t cwe p 2015/14 Slaughterings ,4% Beef imports ,2% Beef exports ,4% Consumption ,5% 000 head Store cattle exports = 12
13 Plan French Beef balance & 2015 forecast Main beef systems profitability Impacts of the new CAP in France 13
14 Network of 590 Beef Farms Consideredas «Sustainable Farming Systems» Technicalperformances and Incomein the top 1/3 of the global population 9 main beef systems Inosys-Réseaux d élevage 14
15 Extensive Cow-Calf farms 74 Farms in the pluriannual sample <1.4 LU/ha Fodder Area Main productions: WEANLINGS; Culled Cows; Finished Heifers Mean typical Farm: 1,6 AWU of which1,4 fromowner s family 140 ha of which131 ha of FodderArea 85 Suckler cows; 130 Livestock Units Productivity: 307 kg lw/lu Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 15
16 Extensive Cow-Calf farms Beefproduct: -4% in 2014 (store pricewasdown); +15% LFA supports increase, but lower basic payments = -4% for CAP supports. Family income before taxes & social security costs: /family AWU Upper quarter limit Mean Lower quarter limit Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 16
17 Intensive Cow-calf + Fattening farms 29 Farms in the pluriannual sample >1.4 LU/ha Fodder Area Main productions: YOUNG BULLS; Culled Cows; Heifers; Crops Mean typical Farm: 2 AWU of which1,8 fromowner s family 148 ha of which123 ha of FodderArea 118 Suckler cows; 218 Livestock Units Productivity: 370 kg lw/lu Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 17
18 Intensive Cow-calf + Fattening farms Beef& croppricesdown in 2014, aboveall for Charolais YB CAP supports down Fortunately, very good forage crops and lower costs Family income before taxes & social security costs: /family AWU Upper quarter limit Mean Lower quarter limit Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 18
19 Fatteners + crops 11 Farms in the pluriannual sample >1.4 LU/ha Fodder Area Main productions: CROPS; Young Bulls Mean typical Farm: 1,6 AWU of which1,3 fromowner s family 105 ha of which35 ha of FodderArea 136 Livestock Units Productivity: 700 kg lw/lu Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 19
20 Fatteners + crops Major impact of crop price decrease in CAP supports down too. So lower income despite lower costs. Family income before taxes & social security costs: /family AWU Mean Source : S3E / Institut de l Elevage d après Inosys Réseaux d élevage 20
21 Compared French Farms mean income according to main production Source : Institut de l Elevage accordingto FADN & «Commission des Comptes de la Nation» 21
22 Plan French Beef balance & 2015 forecast Main beef systems profitability Impacts of the new CAP in France 22
23 French choice for the 1rst pillar Coupled support. For Suckler cow, Dairy cows, Ewes, Goats protein crops 1st Ha additionnalsupport (<52 ha) 5% in 2015 to 20% in 2019 Young Farmers additionnal support (5 years) Greening proportional to Basic Payment Partial convergence of the Basic Payment: 70% in Individual farm support losses limitedto -30% + Transfer 3% 1rst to 2 nd in
24 Impact on the French farming systems According to the type of farming Source: Institut de l Elevage according to FADN 2011 All French farms Crops Dairy(diversified) Dairy(specialized) YB Fattening + Crops Beef cows(div.) Beef cows(spec.) Sheep meat(div.) Sheep meat(spec.) Dairy ewes Goats 24
25 Impact on the French farming systems A huge diversity depending on the Single payment of each individual farm + status (GAEC ) Source: Institut de l Elevage according to FADN 2011 Crops Dairy(diversified) Dairy(specialized) YB Fattening + Crops Beef cows(div.) Beef cows(spec.) Sheep meat (div.) Sheep meat (spec.) Dairy ewes Goats 2019/2011 1st pillar support evol. 25
26 French choice for the 2nd pillar Bigimpact on Less Favoured Areas payments +15% in % for the first 25 ha Integrationof the Grass Premium from
27 To conclude A questionned future for Beef Farming systems in France Low returns/ high investments Export perspectives for weanlings/ for Young Bull beef Indigenous consumption more & more focussed on mince Weak coordination & conflicts in the French industry chain Difficult transmission of Beef Farms to young farmers 27
28 To conclude But it exists positive signals: CAP reform is positive for specialised systems, above all in LFA. Greatersensitivityto soilfertilitypb& sustainability: incentiveto re-discovermix-crop-livestockfarming (Olivier de Serres ), evenafterthe end of the dairyquotas The crisiswillcome to an end in Southern EU and the weakereuro offer new opportunities in Third countries Levers of competitiveness improvement to activate: R&D in France and at the EU level(eurobeeffor ex.) Better coordination in the beef industry chain Lower capital + easier care cattle systems to implement 28
29 Thank you for your kind attention! Questions?
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